Postseason NCAA Tourney Nitty Gritty: IB style

[IdahoBoy]

[glow=red,2,300]2006 NCAA Tournament: IB's "Nitty Gritty"[/glow]

Broken down by conference. Starting with the power conferences with some explanations, less info as I go along. Remember, 64-teams, 31-automatic bids, 33-at large. I split the at-large into sure-things and bubble teams. The "In" teams include the conference champion, even if not declared.


Special thanks to Rich Kern. All of the information needed to compile this type of nitty gritty report for yourself is available at www.richkern.com. A true volleyball fan subscribes to RK.com.





UPDATED 11/10/2006

Updated 11/10/2006
Conferences with automatic bids (31)	Open Bids from NCAA Tourney (53)	21 Bubble Teams to win remaining 11 Open Bids	Notes
America East*	Conf Champ
Atlantic 10*	Conf Champ
Atlantic Coast	Duke	Virginia, Clemson	Duke pretty much wraps up auto bid. Clemson (16-8, 11-5) and Virginia (20-6, 13-4) are vying for a second bid from this conference.
Atlantic Sun*	Conf Champ
Big 12	Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa State, Missouri	Colorado
Big East	St. John's, Louisville	Notre Dame
Big Sky*	Big Sky Champ
Big South*	Conf Champ
Big Ten	Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State	Michigan State, Northwestern?, Michigan back-in after Minn upset
Big West	Cal Poly	LBSU, CSUN, UCSB
Colonial Athletic Association*	Conf Champ
Conference USA*	Conf Champ
Horizon League*	Conf Champ
Ivy League*	Conf Champ
Metro Atlantic Athletic*	Conf Champ
Mid-American	Ohio	Bowling Green (23-4, 12-2)	BG likely in only if win conference tourney, which may knock weak-scheduled Ohio out of NCAAs
Mid-Continent*	Conf Champ
Mid-Eastern Athletic*	Florida A&M		FAMU is a "gimmee" winner
Missouri Valley	Conf Champ	Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State	3-nearly equal teams, likely one bid... talk about motivation for a great tournament!!
Mountain West	Utah, BYU, Colorado State
Northeast*	Conf Champ
Ohio Valley*	Conf Champ
Pac-10	Stanford, Washington, USC, California, UCLA, Oregon	Arizona State?	Oregon's loss to AZ makes them less of an "in-team"; Arizona State still has a hard row to hoe to make >.500
Patriot*	Conf Champ
Southeastern	Florida, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama	Kentucky, Arkansas	I think the SEC caps out at 6-teams this year
Southern*	Conf Champ
Southland*	Conf Champ
Southwestern Athletic*	Conf Champ
Sun Belt*	Conf Champ		Almost a shame because will be a great tournament, but just one team.
West Coast	San Diego, Pepperdine, Santa Clara	Loyola Marymount, San Francisco, Saint Marys?
Western Athletic	Hawaii, New Mexico State	Nevada

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[IdahoBoy]

Pac-10 Conference

"In" Teams

Stanford (20-2, 11-1) 6-remaining
- Seeded Team.

Washington (21-3, 11-2) 5-remaining
- Seeded Team.

UCLA (23-2, 10-2) 7-remaining
- Seeded team.

USC (20-3, 9-3) 6-remaining
- Seeded team.

Oregon (17-5, 7-5) 6-remaining
- In. Their 5-game loss to Washington shows they can compete with the top teams in the nation. Oregon has the potential to finish 2-4 still in Pac-10 play, shouldn't matter.

California (17-6, 6-6) 6-remaining
- Cal has the potential to finish 1-5 in remaining matches. This would leave them at 7-11 in the Pac-10 and if ASU finished 4-2, a tie for 6th. They still get in, Pepperdine, Colorado State as part of undefeated non-conference schedule and the tiebreaker if it comes to over ASU.


"Bubble" Teams

Arizona State (11-12, 3-9) 6-remaining
- If Arizona State can go 4-2 in the remaining 6 matches, they would end up at 7-11 in Conference, but be 15-14 overall and NCAA eligible. Pablo ranks them at 37. Wins over Michigan State, Loyola Marymount, Notre Dame. Losses to Purdue, Duke, Ohio State.

Washington State (15-12, 3-10) 5-remaining
- Must finish 3-2 to be considered, which would leave them at 6-12 in Pac-10. Pablo ranking of 58. Wins over Idaho, UNLV. Losses to Idaho, South Dakota State. WSU finishing with 4-conference wins would definitely boost their odds, but I wouldn't count on call on Selection Sunday for the Cougs.


"Out" Teams

Arizona (10-14, 1-11) 6-remaining
- No chance.

Oregon State (3-18, 0-12) 6-remaining
- No chance.

[IdahoBoy]

Big 12 Conference

"In" Teams

Nebraska (21-0, 13-0) 7-remaining
- Seeded team. Likely TOP seed.

Oklahoma (20-4, 11-2) 7-remaining
- What a shocker... or sooner? Whatever. This team is in, no matter how they finish. Seeded? Maybe!

Texas (16-5, 11-3) 6-remaining
- Many of us were ready to declare Texas as National Champs after the NACWAA. They are still very good. Seeded team.

Colorado (13-8, 9-5) 6-remaining
- I like this team. They are in with one more win.

Iowa State (16-7, 8-5) 7-remaining
- Who? This team is in. When was the last time the danced?

Missouri (14-9, 8-6) 6-remaining
- Must win 1 more match to be eligible.


"Bubble" Teams

Baylor (15-10, 4-9)
- I think they miss this year. Soft scheduling and poor conference record. Could prove me wrong by winning 5 of remaining 8.

Texas A&M (10-12, 3-11) 6-remaining
- Rough rebuilder for the Aggies. Must finish 5-1 to be eligible. If they do, they are in.

Texas Tech (11-12, 4-10) 6-remaining
- Must finish 4-2 to be eligible. Not gonna happen.


"Out" Teams

Kansas (10-13, 3-11) 6-remaining
- No way they finish 5-1 to be eligible. What's with scheduling an even number of matches?

Kansas State (9-15, 1-13)
- Ouch, lost 14 of last 15 matches.

[IdahoBoy]

Big Ten Conference

"In" Teams

Penn State (23-1, 12-1)
- Seeded Team.

Minnesota (17-7, 11-3)
- Seeded Team?? <-- Loss to Michigan not conducive to favor with seedings

Wisconsin (18-5, 10-3)
- Seeded Team?

Purdue (19-5, 9-4)
- In. Not seeded.

Ohio State (16-7, 6-7)
- In.

"Bubble" Teams

Michigan State (15-8, 6-7)
- 2-5 in remaining matches might get it done, but I would like to see one more conference upset from MSU, 3-4 and they dance.

Northwestern (12-10, 6-7)
- 3-4 in remaining matches is within reach, but an upset would clinch it for this team.

Michigan (18-9, 5-9)
- This team started off on top of the world. They must finish 4-3 to get in, I think. **Win over Minnesota was very significant. They are on their way to a 4-3 finish.

Illinois (14-10, 5-9)
- If this team finishes 4-2, then they dance. I doubt it.


"Out" Teams

Iowa (13-12, 2-11)
- Climbed a wrung on the Big-10 ladder. take the small victories. Out.

Indiana (10-15, 1-12)
- Out.

[IdahoBoy]

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

"In" Teams


Florida (21-2, 14-1)
- In. Seeded.

LSU (20-4, 12-3)
- In. Seeded?

Tennessee (17-9, 8-8)
- This team must win 3 of 4 so that they don't get paired up with a team that will smoosh them.

Arkansas (15-8, 8-7)
- In. Might end up 2-3, but still should be in.


"Bubble" Teams


Kentucky (15-8, 8-7)
- Probably the first bubble-team in the mix. As you were Wildcats, as you were.

Alabama (15-9, 10-5)
- Tough remaining schedule for Bama. They need 3 of remaining 5 matches to be in. They have some bad, bad losses (Miami, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Auburn). But good win over LSU.

Mississippi (15-11, 6-9)
- A small chance if you finish 3-2. In with 4-wins.

South Carolina (13-13, 6-9)
- Maybe if they show us something by winning 3 of remaining 5.... maybe. Need 3-wins to be eligible.

Mississippi State (14-11, 5-10)
- I don't see new shoes in their cards. Must win 3 of 5 and hope for a slew of SEC teams.


"Out" Teams

Auburn (12-14, 4-11)
- No.

Georgia (6-19, 2-13)
- Nuh uh.

[IdahoBoy]

Mountain West Conference

"In" Teams

Utah (21-2, 12-0)
- Seeded? Hmmm... Maybe, good regional location to be.

Colorado State (16-6, 10-2)
- This team would benefit from a better travel partner. If they stay in 2nd in MWC, they get in.

BYU (19-4, 9-3)
- Yeah, somehow, they beat Stanford. In.


"Bubble" Teams

UNLV (16-9, 7-6)
- Nothing impressive, nothing horrible. Good win over UCSB. Bad loss to Wyoming likely keeps them out.


"Out" Teams

TCU (17-11, 5-8)
- Nope, although, they did beat South Carolina... No.

San Diego State (10-14, 4-8)
- Nope.

New Mexico (8-17, 4-9)
- Nope.

Wyoming (10-12, 4-7)
- Nope.

Air Force (3-20, 0-12)
- Nope.

[IdahoBoy]

West Coast Conference

"In" Teams

San Diego
Pepperdine
Santa Clara

"Bubble" Teams

Loyola Marymount
Saint Marys?
San Francisco?

"Out" Teams

[IdahoBoy]

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

"In" Teams

Hawaii (18-5, 10-1)
- In. Not seeded, but hosting, so same thing that happened with Texas last year happens to Hawaii.

New Mexico State (27-1, 10-1)
- In.


"Bubble" Teams

Nevada (14-10, 8-4)
- Need to beat BYU. Finish undefeated in conference, good showing in WAC. Doubtful.

Idaho (8-14, 7-3)
- When you make the list, you can take liberties. Idaho has solid non-conference schedule but 3-bad losses. However, they are one of 4 teams capable of winning WAC tourney, so I'm keeping them here just in case that happens.

"Out" Teams

San Jose State (15-10, 6-6)
Utah State (12-14, 5-7)
Boise State (9-14, 2-8)
Fresno State (4-19, 2-9)
Louisiana Tech (6-22, 0-11)

[IdahoBoy]

Big East Conference

"In" Teams

St. Johns

"Bubble" Teams

Notre Dame
Louisville

[IdahoBoy]

Big West Conference (ACC)

"In" Teams

Cal Poly
Long Beach State

"Bubble" Teams

UCSB
CSUN

[IdahoBoy]

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)


Hmmm... I think that ACC only deserves one this year at this point... I'll revisit them.

[IdahoBoy]

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

Ohio is in.

Bowling Green... How do they fit in? Coming back to this one.

[IdahoBoy]

Missouri Valley Conference

One guaranteed seed, 3-equally capable teams of filling it... Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State.


Good question. Let's see how they play out.

[IdahoBoy]

The following conferences, unless noted of an exception, get one automatic bid only.

America East
Atlantic 10
Atlantic Sun
Big Sky
Big South
Colonial Athletic Association
Conference USA
Horizon League
Ivy League
Metro Atlantic Conference
Mid-Continent
Mid-Eastern Athletics (Florida A&M)
Northeast
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Southern
Southland
Southwestern Athletic
Sun Belt

[IdahoBoy]

This list has 54 "in" teams.

That leaves 10-spots for 24-teams. Of those 24, there will only be about 16 in the running coming closer to Selection Sunday.



Who did I miss? Where did I make mistakes?

What will the Selection Committee do?