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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 10, 2006 22:00:21 GMT -5
Updated 11/11/2006 | | | | Conferences with automatic bids (31) | Open Bids from NCAA Tourney (55) | 19 Bubble Teams to win remaining 9 Open Bids | Notes | America East* | Conf Champ | | | Atlantic 10* | Conf Champ | | | Atlantic Coast | Duke | Virginia, Clemson | Duke pretty much wraps up auto bid. Clemson (16-8, 11-5) and Virginia (20-6, 13-4) are vying for a second bid from this conference. | Atlantic Sun* | Conf Champ | | | Big 12 | Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Iowa State, Missouri | Baylor? | | Big East | St. John's, Louisville | Notre Dame | | Big Sky* | Big Sky Champ | | | Big South* | Conf Champ | | | Big Ten | Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State | Michigan State, Northwestern?, Michigan back-in after Minn upset | | Big West | Cal Poly | LBSU, CSUN, UCSB | | Colonial Athletic Association* | Conf Champ | | | Conference USA* | Conf Champ | | | Horizon League* | Conf Champ | | | Ivy League* | Cornell | | | Metro Atlantic Athletic* | Conf Champ | | | Mid-American | Ohio | Bowling Green (23-4, 12-2) | BG likely in only if win conference tourney, which may knock weak-scheduled Ohio out of NCAAs | Mid-Continent* | Conf Champ | | | Mid-Eastern Athletic* | Florida A&M | | FAMU is a "gimmee" winner | Missouri Valley | Conf Champ | Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State | 3-nearly equal teams, likely one bid... talk about motivation for a great tournament!! | Mountain West | Utah, BYU, Colorado State | | | Northeast* | Conf Champ | | | Ohio Valley* | Conf Champ | | | Pac-10 | Stanford, Washington, USC, California, UCLA, Oregon | Arizona State? | Oregon's loss to AZ makes them less of an "in-team"; Arizona State still has a hard row to hoe to make >.500 | Patriot* | Conf Champ | | | Southeastern | Florida, LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama | Arkansas | I think the SEC caps out at 6-teams this year | Southern* | Conf Champ | | | Southland* | Conf Champ | | | Southwestern Athletic* | Prairie View A&M | | | Sun Belt* | Conf Champ | | Almost a shame because will be a great tournament, but just one team. | West Coast | San Diego, Pepperdine, Santa Clara | Loyola Marymount, San Francisco, Saint Marys? | Western Athletic | Hawaii, New Mexico State | Nevada | |
*Indicates only 1 bid will be in tournament from this conference Bold indicates conference automatic bid winnerConference Champion
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 11, 2006 2:04:08 GMT -5
Wow... the Pac-10 automatically absolutely gets 5-teams in this year, all of those likely being top 16 seeded teams... but Oregon and now Arizona State are right on the verge of being in the mix as well.... talk about tough opponents for some teams!
Arizona State defeated Oregon at home tonight, Oregon did not fare well in the southwest on this swing... too dry for these ducks, maybe?
ASU has three matches remaining. They are currently at 13-13, 5-10. The remaining matches are: @ Washington State (a very winnable match); @ Washington (a loss); and Home vs. Arizona. ASU beat Arizona in 4 on the road and they have historically fared well at home vs. this in-state rival. This could mean a 2-1 finish, which would make ASU NCAA Tournament eligible at 15-14, 7-11. Definitely an NCAA Tournament team if this happens, especially considering the aura of Lisa Love who is the Athletic Director at ASU. ASU's Pablo ranking is 36.
Oregon on the other hand, is on the verge of dropping behind ASU in both conference standings and in appeal for the tournament. Ducks are sitting on a 3-match losing streak and up next are 4 of the top teams in the conference: Stanford, California at home; and @ USC and UCLA.
Ducks may have just loste themselves OUT of the NCAA tournament with this match at ASU tonight. Win streak is a big factor for selections to the committee, they will not look highly upon a 7-match losing streak (if Oregon plays as they are) heading into the NCAAs.
But, Oregon has a higher Pablo than California, and one win over a top 20-ranked team in the stretch of four power-houses may be just enough, especially if ASU does finish 2-1.
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Post by baywatcher on Nov 11, 2006 3:22:17 GMT -5
I'm a big Cal fan, but can't see that they have beaten any of the big teams they've played this ear, except Pepperdine, Colarado State in their own tournament. They need to beat at elast one of the top pac 10 teams to justify good torunament seeding 9or even inclusion in the tournament?) I guess they came close against UCLA, but not quite enough again.
for the tournament, I'm as interested in how seeding goes for top 16. As I understand it, the committee rates the top 16, then places them 1 v. 16, and 8 v. 9, etc. if thee ratings mean regional schools are in the same bracket, a distinct possibility this year as Wasington, Texas and Florida seem to be scrunched into the 4-8 range, the commitee can move the lower seeded on one ranking (which if 8-9 doesn't solve anything). Also, would also like to see the different conferences spread out among the regions, not pitted against each other, with 5 or 6 Pac 10 and Big 10 teams will be an issue, also big 12 should have at least 4 teams in; and finally it seems that all regions will be hosting with at least one higher ranked team ahead of them, and hawaii may have three or four. If nebraska stays 1 and Texas ends 8, will they send Nebraska back to Texas? Same with any top Pac 10 team and Washington. Seems a shame and a little unfair; I know no Pac 10 team wants to play at Washington again, Huskies very though there. Florida and Texas may be just as tough venues, but at least different. The favorites are going to have to earn it this year by winning at hostile environments, unless upsets early (see stanford last year).
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Post by scorpianraider on Nov 11, 2006 14:14:13 GMT -5
Note: You can take Saint Mary's out of the mix. They are 9-13 with three matches left to play. Not a math major, but winning out would get them to 12-13.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 11, 2006 21:38:32 GMT -5
Note: You can take Saint Mary's out of the mix. They are 9-13 with three matches left to play. Not a math major, but winning out would get them to 12-13. Thanks, I miscounted how many matches left. San Diego is the auto-winner, is there a tournament for the WCC?
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 11, 2006 22:49:21 GMT -5
Cornell is the Ivy League Champ.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2006 0:23:18 GMT -5
Prairie View A&M won the auto-bid from the SWAC.
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Post by gauchofan on Nov 12, 2006 3:44:06 GMT -5
I'll predict that Irvine will beat Northridge in conference play and knock them out of contention. Irvine only has an 11-15 record, but they seem to be peaking right now (and are a great up-and-coming young team). Long Beach is definitely in with a 20-5 record at present. UCSB will squeak in with a 16-11 record at present and at least a share of 3rd place in the Big West.
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Post by cbrown1709 on Nov 12, 2006 3:49:25 GMT -5
IB, just wondering how you can have kentucky on the bubble, and Tennessee in, when UK beat UT twice?
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2006 3:53:29 GMT -5
Thanks cbrown, the SEC fell a little bit out-of-date.
I also updated the Big 12, a few significant changes there, as well.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2006 3:55:44 GMT -5
Am I correct that a Florida win over Miss. St. tomorrow would clinch the SEC?
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Post by cbrown1709 on Nov 12, 2006 4:06:19 GMT -5
I believe so...
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Post by 2c on Nov 12, 2006 4:07:45 GMT -5
No way Colorado State is a lock if Missouri State, NoIowa, and Witchita State are Bubble with only the MVC champ making it. CSU has no impressive wins and lost directly to Missouri State at home. They have a chance for a couple nice wins over BYU and Utah next week but until they play them, they are a buble team at best with a 6-4 non-conf record and losses to TexasA&M and MissouriSt.
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Post by 2c on Nov 12, 2006 4:17:23 GMT -5
Having LBSU as a bubble team is just spiteful.
UCSB certainly knows how to win the games that will get them into the tournament. Some very bad losses but some key wins over tournament teams of more importantly over other bubble teams (LMU, CSUN with big wins over Pepp and Wisc). As long as they win out they're in, which shouldn't be too hard. KG scrapes out another bid.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2006 4:20:43 GMT -5
No way Colorado State is a lock if Missouri State, NoIowa, and Witchita State are Bubble with only the MVC champ making it. CSU has no impressive wins and lost directly to Missouri State at home. They have a chance for a couple nice wins over BYU and Utah next week but until they play them, they are a buble team at best with a 6-4 non-conf record and losses to TexasA&M and MissouriSt. That's a decision I made after flip-flopping about 100-times. I think they are in, this is why. A) 12-match win streak (with three to go), B) RKPI of 45, which, while not as good as say Missouri State, they are in a significantly higher rated conference than the Missouri Valley, C) a tougher schedule than the Valley teams, even with losses, has historically yielded an entry over non-conclusive wins. Don't get me wrong... I _really_ want to see at least 2 teams from the Valley, but I don't think the NCAA will swing that way.
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