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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2006 4:26:23 GMT -5
Having LBSU as a buble team is just spiteful. UCSB certainly knows how to win the games that will get them into the tournament. Some very bad losses but some key wins over tournament teams of more importantly over other bubble teams (LMU, CSUN with big wins over Pepp and Wisc). As long as they win out they're in, which shouldn't be too hard. KG scrapes out another bid. Long Beach at Bubble is not because of spite, its because they are "on the bubble." They will likely finish 2nd in the Big West, but to an unknown Cal Poly team. Their best win is likely over Missouri, early. Oregon is also a team whose success is directly impacting Long Beach. Oregon not making the tournament and LBSU in would seriously cause some complaints.
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Post by 2c on Nov 12, 2006 4:36:34 GMT -5
Virginia has a nice looking overall record but no impressive wins. Loss to fellow bubble teams Tenn and Michigan hurts. Same with Clemson, has no good wins either but has losses to NoIowa and USC(SoCar) that hurt.
Although GaTech will finish lower in the ACC, they maybe the best bet for a 2nd conf team in the tournament win their wins over Northern Iowa and Duke.
Could come down to how these 3 do head-to-head to finish the season in getting a single bid.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2006 4:39:36 GMT -5
My ACC bias will come out with these teams. I don't think any of them but the conference champions deserve a bid this year.
If one were to rate the conferences, and pull the top teams out of each conference, one could fill the at-large spots of the tournament before reaching the ACC. Why should this conference get extra teams in when conferences such as the Missouri Valley, who is higher rated, will potentially not?
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Post by 2c on Nov 12, 2006 4:41:22 GMT -5
Having LBSU as a buble team is just spiteful. UCSB certainly knows how to win the games that will get them into the tournament. Some very bad losses but some key wins over tournament teams of more importantly over other bubble teams (LMU, CSUN with big wins over Pepp and Wisc). As long as they win out they're in, which shouldn't be too hard. KG scrapes out another bid. Long Beach at Bubble is not because of spite, its because they are "on the bubble." They will likely finish 2nd in the Big West, but to an unknown Cal Poly team. Their best win is likely over Missouri, early. Oregon is also a team whose success is directly impacting Long Beach. Oregon not making the tournament and LBSU in would seriously cause some complaints. Do you honestly see a 20+ win (likely 25-5) LBSU team whose losses include Nebraska, and Pablo #13 Oregon and #12 CalPoly (twice) and #41 SacState not making the tournament? LBSU is in even with some more losses to end the season.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2006 4:45:06 GMT -5
Do you honestly see a 20+ win (likely 25-5) LBSU team whose losses include Nebraska, and Pablo #13 Oregon and #12 CalPoly (twice) and #41 SacState not making the tournament? LBSU is in even with some more losses to end the season. My issue with the beach is only this: what if Oregon, Sac State, and Missouri do not make the cut? How does Long Beach squeeze in? It's possible... I don't SEE it happening, but LBSU has not won all of the matches they needed to to be guaranteed in. I want to see them in the tournament. I think they'll be a great first-round host, but not at the expense of Oregon.
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Post by 2c on Nov 12, 2006 4:46:50 GMT -5
My ACC bias will come out with these teams. I don't think any of them but the conference champions deserve a bid this year. If one were to rate the conferences, and pull the top teams out of each conference, one could fill the at-large spots of the tournament before reaching the ACC. Why should this conference get extra teams in when conferences such as the Missouri Valley, who is higher rated, will potentially not? You'll get no argument from me that MVC should have more teams in the tournament than the ACC or the BigWest this year.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2006 4:48:43 GMT -5
I think MVC _should_ get Northern Iowa and Wichita State, no matter what. I think that Missouri State is seriously on the bubble though because of one thing: strength of schedule. Besides two matches against Mountain West teams, they've not a strong schedule. Which is kind of a shame, because I really really like these Missouri State Bear teams.
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Post by 2c on Nov 12, 2006 4:59:25 GMT -5
Notre Dame's fate my hinge on their match with Ohio. Good wins against fellow bubble teams BGreen, Alabama, and Duke do help but a 16-12 record and a 3way tie for 4th in the Big East just isn't very impressive and may not cut it for them this year with no big time wins. Ohio would be their best.
They better peak during the BigEast tourny.
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Post by volley899 on Nov 12, 2006 5:00:17 GMT -5
What team on the bubble will get in from the WCC ? Will it come down to the last conference matches? I mean are they really going to take San Francisco who has not had a very tough schedule or will it be LMU who gets in?
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2006 5:02:20 GMT -5
What team on the bubble will get in from the WCC ? Will it come down to the last conference matches? I mean are they really going to take San Francisco who has not had a very tough schedule or will it be LMU who gets in? The WCC might get 5 in this year. It really depends on how these teams finish though.
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Post by 2c on Nov 12, 2006 5:20:57 GMT -5
Nevada's bubble burst a LONG time ago. A winning record and a single good win over NMSU just won't cut it.
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Post by 2c on Nov 12, 2006 5:55:17 GMT -5
How I see the bubble teams after the AutoBids/LockAtLargeBids.
31 AutoBids: Duke, Nebraska, *StJohns, PennState, CalPoly, *Ohio, Utah, Washington, Florida, SanDiego, Hawaii, 20 other ConfChamps
15 Absolute AtLarge: Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State, BYU, Stanford, USC, California, UCLA, LSU, Pepperdine, Santa Clara, NMSU
Bubble teams (20 spots;22 if NoIowa or WSU / SacState win AutoBid):
Colorado Oregon LBSU Mizzou Louisville UCSB
Mich ISU NoIowa (MVC autoBid?) Kent NW ASU(if eligible)
Tenn LMU MichSt Oral Roberts WSU Alabama
Ark MissouriSt ColoSt SacState (BigSky AutoBid?) SF Notre Dame (if ASU doesn't qualify)
=============
Illinois Virginia Baylor Cincinnati Creighton BGreen
Clemson CSUN Nevada JacksonvilleState StephenFAustin Wisc-Milw
Losing Records? ASU Arizona WSU TexasTech KansasSt
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Post by baywatcher on Nov 12, 2006 12:09:57 GMT -5
As a west coast watcher I would contribute the following; for the WCC St. Mary's (10-13) cannot finish over .500 so they are out. Loyola, my alma mater, lost to both USF and St. Mary's this weekend and will probably lose to Pepperdine next weekend. With losses the weekend before they will lose 4 or 5 in a row at the end, not a good sit with the committee. USF is a classic eat the cupcakes in pre-season and go .500 in a decent conference team, hope to ride the bubble into the tournament. Looked excellent against Loyola the other night, but couldn't beat Pepperdine. Will advance only if others (see Oregon/Cal below) fall. Pepperdine has hovered around .500, but has played a brutal schedule and is playing well at the end of the year, so should get in. Santa Clara has had injuries but has won 4 in a row and is getting back into shape, should get in. For the Big West, can't see UCSB getting in; too many losses to mediocre teams. Will be sad to see that streak end. LBSU should get in, can't say anything about Northridge as never saw them play. For the Pac 10- Oregon and Cal meet this weekend. Both need to win; if I was on the committee I would look askance at Cal; I'm a big fan, but haven't beat anybody of consequence since Pepperdine months ago. All Cal had to do was beat one of the top four once, but unless they ambush UW on the eve of selection Sunday that ain't happenin. Oregon finishes with USC, UCLA and Stanford, so looking at a 6 or 7 match losing streak to end the year if they can't beat Cal. Would call Cal Oregon an elimination game.
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Post by IdahoBoy on Nov 12, 2006 16:53:01 GMT -5
One note, my "Nitty Gritty" is partially, "if the season ended now" and partially "what MAY happen still". I think there have been too many upsets and funky happening to discount any circumstances. A few years ago, I claimed that Idaho would be NCAA eligible (and likely in) if they won 8 of last 9, they did and were. Things happen. Updated 11/11/2006 | | | | Conferences with automatic bids (31) | Open Bids from NCAA Tourney (55) | 19 Bubble Teams to win remaining 9 Open Bids | Notes | America East* | Conf Champ | | | Atlantic 10* | Conf Champ | | | Atlantic Coast | Duke | Virginia, Clemson | Duke pretty much wraps up auto bid. Clemson (16-8, 11-5) and Virginia (20-6, 13-4) are vying for a second bid from this conference. | Atlantic Sun* | Conf Champ | | | Big 12 | Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Iowa State, Missouri | Baylor? | | Big East | St. John's, Louisville | Notre Dame | | Big Sky* | Big Sky Champ | | | Big South* | Conf Champ | | | Big Ten | Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State | Michigan State, Northwestern?, Michigan back-in after Minn upset | | Big West | Cal Poly | LBSU, CSUN, UCSB | | Colonial Athletic Association* | Conf Champ | | | Conference USA* | Conf Champ | | | Horizon League* | Conf Champ | | | Ivy League* | Cornell | | | Metro Atlantic Athletic* | Conf Champ | | | Mid-American | Ohio | Bowling Green (23-4, 12-2) | BG likely in only if win conference tourney, which may knock weak-scheduled Ohio out of NCAAs | Mid-Continent* | Conf Champ | | | Mid-Eastern Athletic* | Florida A&M | | FAMU is a "gimmee" winner | Missouri Valley | Conf Champ | Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Missouri State | 3-nearly equal teams, likely one bid... talk about motivation for a great tournament!! | Mountain West | Utah, BYU, Colorado State | | | Northeast* | Conf Champ | | | Ohio Valley* | Conf Champ | | | Pac-10 | Stanford, Washington, USC, California, UCLA, Oregon | Arizona State? | Oregon's loss to AZ makes them less of an "in-team"; Arizona State still has a hard row to hoe to make >.500 | Patriot* | Conf Champ | | | Southeastern | Florida, LSU, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama | Arkansas | I think the SEC caps out at 6-teams this year | Southern* | Conf Champ | | | Southland* | Conf Champ | | | Southwestern Athletic* | Prairie View A&M | | | Sun Belt* | Conf Champ | | Almost a shame because will be a great tournament, but just one team. | West Coast | San Diego, Pepperdine, Santa Clara | Loyola Marymount, San Francisco, Saint Marys? | Western Athletic | Hawaii, New Mexico State | Nevada | |
*Indicates only 1 bid will be in tournament from this conference Bold indicates conference automatic bid winnerConference Champion
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Post by TheSantaBarbarian on Nov 12, 2006 17:51:24 GMT -5
"You'll get no argument from me that MVC should have more teams in the tournament than the ACC or the BigWest this year. " Would that be because the Pablo conference ranking for the MVC is 138 and for the Big West is 79? It sure seems like the MVC should get more teams in. It's definitly a much stronger conference.
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