bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 22, 2014 19:48:47 GMT -5
Lipscomb has 1 good win (Kansas) and 3 sub-100 losses (Jacksonville, Northern Kentucky, and Georgia Tech)' Also has H2H losses against bubble teams (Utah & WKU) and an outside-the-bubble team (Xavier). Kansas will get a seed, but IMO it will not be enough. St. Mary's had a win that was just as good last year, as well as a better rest of profile, but the 3 sub-100 left them on the sidelines. Based on that, I say OUT You forgot to count the win over Illinois State, who will probably be in the field and a top 50 win. Add in a mid 30 rpi as well. I think they squeek in. I am estimating that the 1-1 conference tournament will cost Lipscomb about 4-5 places in RPI. Jacksonville was #176 in this week's RPI - which would add a penalty, however, I think the 3 wins this weekend will put them within the top 167 and allow Lipscomb to avoid that penalty. I am guessing Lipscomb may end up with high 30's/low 40's in RPI.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 22, 2014 22:45:38 GMT -5
conf. breakdown updated
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Post by macroman on Nov 22, 2014 23:18:38 GMT -5
Certainly Wisconsin should be seeded higher than FSU? Maybe these two seeds could be swapped.
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Post by bayarea on Nov 23, 2014 0:41:25 GMT -5
Quote: "Santa Clara is in trouble now, because of two losses: Pepperdine and San Francisco. San Diego handled business against the Northwest schools, and if they beat Saint Mary's, the Toreros should be IN the NCAA tournament."
Confused about your WCC comments. Santa Clara lost to LMU and Pepperdine and beat San Francisco in past 3 matches. San Diego faces Pepperdine in final match, not St Mary's (Santa Clara's final match is St. Mary's.)
Agree that Pacific is playing well enough to be in the tournament! They far outplayed LMU today.
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
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Post by trojansc on Nov 23, 2014 0:49:59 GMT -5
Quote: "Santa Clara is in trouble now, because of two losses: Pepperdine and San Francisco. San Diego handled business against the Northwest schools, and if they beat Saint Mary's, the Toreros should be IN the NCAA tournament." Confused about your WCC comments. Santa Clara lost to LMU and Pepperdine and beat San Francisco in past 3 matches. San Diego faces Pepperdine in final match, not St Mary's (Santa Clara's final match is St. Mary's.) Agree that Pacific is playing well enough to be in the tournament! They far outplayed LMU today. Santa Clara lost to San Francisco in the beginning of WCC. You are right that Santa Clara's final match is Saint Mary's. San Diego's final match is against Pepperdine.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 23, 2014 11:32:35 GMT -5
IMO a bubble bursted, Libscomb is in the tournament.
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Nov 23, 2014 11:58:52 GMT -5
The Atlantic Sun should be a one-bid team. I don't like Lipscomb as an at-large.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 23, 2014 12:00:02 GMT -5
32 At-Large Bids (sorted in order of RPI)Green teams are locks (or everything but locks) to NCAA tournament. Blue teams have eligibility issues. Orange teams are on the bubble, but have more breathing room than Yellow teams. Yellow teams are firmly on the bubble and every game is vital. Florida State (3)Washington (4)Oregon (8)Illinois (9)Penn State (10)Nebraska (11)Kentucky (13)Arizona (14)Iowa State (15)Kansas (16)UCLA (17)Kansas State (18)Texas A&M (19)Southern California (20) - (.500 eligibility concern) Duke (22) Colorado (24) Oklahoma (25) Miami-FL (27) Alabama (28) UCF (29) Hawaii (30) Creighton (31) Ohio State (33) Loyola Marymount (34) Oregon State (35) Arizona State (36) Cal St. Northridge (37) LSU (38) Utah (40) San Diego (43) Santa Clara (45) Purdue (47) As you can see, I nearly went strictly by RPI. Not because I believe the RPI is going to be the sole determiner, but with a combination of all the factors and overall body of works of each team, I think if the bracket was pulled today the committee would go strictly by RPI, but leaving Southern Methodist out (and maybe Miami-FL). Do I think it's going to happen? It's possible - but probably not. I'm really concerned with Lipscomb stealing a bid if they are upset. The other four could all miss out (Western Kentucky, UALR, Illinois State, Ohio)
I didn't have the cojones to leave Miami out. Maybe next week, we'll see. Only two more full weeks of play until all matches have concluded.Other serious at-large contenders: (46) Southern Methodist - SMU has chances to win. If they win out, including beating Temple and Tulsa, they may have a chance for a berth. But even then, it is not guaranteed. Watch out for both Temple and Tulsa, who have been playing well and recently both beat UCF, to both beat SMU, and put them in a better position for a bid than SMU. (48) Michigan - Big Blue needs to get eligible. If they finish 15-15, I'll all but guarantee a berth for the Wolverines. (49) Michigan State - State needs to finish strong. I'd like to see them win out, to be a right on the bubble for an at-large bid. They may even knock Purdue out! (50) Virginia Tech - Can the Hokies be a contender if they are eligible? Well, they've certainly got some wins, but the amount of losses are hurting. It'd be amazing to see how high their RPI would go if they won all of the games against lower ranked RPI teams.. (51) Minnesota - Not winning a game against a top-tier B1G team would have been okay if their RPI was higher, but since they have remaining matches at weaker teams, I think Minnesota is going to end up OUT of the NCAA tournament. (52) Xavier - The Musketeers saved their postseason hopes with a win at Butler. Had they lost, they would not have made the Big East tournament, or the NCAA tournament. They still have to win the Big East tournament to make an NCAA appearance, I think. Even an upset over Creighton in the B-East Semifinals shouldn't be enough for an at-large bid, they'll have to win a conference tournament. But it's seriously Déjà vu for Xavier, this is the THIRD straight year they are probably going to finish with an RPI in the mid-50's, just outside the NCAA tournament. Sad case. I believe the last two years their season ended at the hands of Marquette. (53) Tulsa - Tulsa registered a major upset over UCF to get them back on the bubble. This is the same team that started 0-4 in AAC play. Since then, they are 10-1 in conference. They'll meet Temple this week. If Temple beats Tulsa, I think Tulsa's at-large chances are over, even if they win-out including beating Southern Methodist. (54) Pittsburgh - Virginia Tech beat Pittsburgh (again). Tech has beaten Pittsburgh twice in the past three weeks. Ouch. How can you put Pitt in over the Hokies (if the Hokies even finish eligible, that is). Pittsburgh has one impressive win, which may or may not be a top-25 victory, depending on how Duke finishes. As of now, that is not enough. Pittsburgh is OUT! (especially considering Miami just beat them, and Miami is not even that safe) (55) Pacific - I feel for Pacific. I really do. 21-7. Wins over: Loyola Marymount, UALR, Santa Clara. Worst Loss: 45 RPI Santa Clara. Three top-50 wins, but none top-25. Their best chance remains against Loyola Marymount, but it will be in Westchester. Combine that with the fact that Pacific plays three more matches, and two are against teams with losing-records, and it doesn't look good for Pacific. BUT, if they win out, they'll finish with maybe 4-top 50 victories, will that be enough? Or will the team they potentially beat twice (LMU) get in, while they sit out at 24-7? (56) Virginia - Virginia has too many bad losses. Liberty, VCU, Ball State, Loyola. Not enough wins to compensate for those losses. Virginia doesn't have a chance for a top-25 win, maybe a few more top-50 wins depending on how the ACC finishes out. Either way, I think Virginia is out. (57) Seton Hall - Seton Hall almost has a top-25 win over Marquette and no 100+ losses, but played a very weak SOS. I don't see them getting an at-large bid, and splitting with Xavier didn't help. If they beat Xavier twice, maybe consideration would be made for the Pirates? Regardless, I don't think they will be in the NCAA's. But if they win out but lose in the Big East Championship, they may squeeze in or be one of the last teams out. (58) Baylor - Poor Baylor. Such an inconsistent team. They needed to beat the 100+RPI teams they lost to. Baylor is on life-support.. (59) Northwestern - Northwestern has not been impressive as of late and has been drifting out of NCAA at-large range. Don't count on a bid, the Cats need to probably win out. (that includes beating Penn State) (60) Temple - Temple is hot. If they win out, they should finish 2nd or maybe even first in the AAC. As far as an at-large bid, they certainly need to win out but I don't think it will be enough. It will certainly test the committee. Temple had some early injuries, maybe they will look at that? Not sure, their best bet is for UCF to somehow let the conference title slip away. (Would UCF be on the bubble in that case?) Honorable Mention (Long Shot) At-Large contenders (61) UNLV - see below (62) Wyoming - see below (63) New Mexico - The MWC trio has three teams at 61, 62, and 63. New Mexico just beat Wyoming but doesn't have an impressive resume. Wyoming beat UNLV twice, but those are their best wins. No Top 50 wins. UNLV beat Colorado State, but lost to Wyoming twice. Regardless, none of these three should be in the NCAA tournament. UNLV losses to Wyomingx2, and CSUNx2, really could have helped them into the NCAA's if they could have turned those into wins. (64) LIU Brooklyn - Great season for LIU Brooklyn, and they should be able to take care of business to (65) George Washington - Not a chance for an at-large, but keep an eye on them in the A-10 tournament, they may shock Dayton (again). (66) UTSA - UTSA could have been an at-large contender after winning 15 straight, but the loss to North Texas cooled them down and puts them in a win-or-die situation in the C-USA tournament. (67) Wichita State - Nothing really stands out about Wichita State, but they could make a run in the MVC tournament. (68) Arkansas State - Nothing significant on their resume, but they certainly are surprising me by having a #68 RPI ranking. Not sure how they are so high, but hey, watch out for them in the Sun Belt Tournament. (69) Harvard - Great season, but they need to beat Yale to get into the tournament. (70) Arkansas - Jumping over Ole Miss in RPI, but still too far out to be on the bubble Highest RPI as of Today excluded from the NCAA tournament: 46 Southern MethodistLast Four In: Miami-FL, LSU, Purdue, Cal State NorthridgeLast Four Out: Pacific, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Southern MethodistNext Four Out: Virginia Tech (ineligible), Xavier, Minnesota, Tulsa. After the results of this weekend, and adding Libscomb to the at large discussion, I see a lot of these bubble bids starting to fill up. All of your orange teams are IN the tournament. Miami, Hawaii, Utah, LSU, San Diego, and Santa Clara are IN the tournament. that leaves, by my calculation, just two bids left for teams like Libscomb, CSNU, Purdue, Pacific, Southern Methodist, Michigan State, Minnesota. IMO some of the secondary criteria favors Libscomb and CSNU over the others. Also, this is assuming USC gets another win (probably unlikely, but certainly not out of the question) and qualifies. If they don't, that opens up another bid.
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Post by n00b on Nov 23, 2014 12:43:15 GMT -5
Don't forget that there are still some potential bid-stealers out there. I'm not sure if any of these teams would be locks of at large bids if they lose, but they'll certainly be in the discussion. All odds are based on Pablo.
Big East Marquette (26), Creighton (31) are pretty close to locks (although Creighton probably doesn't want to finish 0-2 with losses to Seton Hall today and Xavier on Friday). In the BE Semifinals, Creighton takes on Xavier and Marquette hosts Seton Hall. Seton Hall has wins over both Marquette and Creighton this year (although they were both in South Orange).
Odds Xavier or Seton Hall steals the bid: 26%
Conference USA Western Kentucky (42) will be squarely on the bubble with a loss. They are in today's Conference USA Championship match against Rice at 1:30 ET. In the regular season, the teams met only once. WKU won at home 25-13, 25-21, 20-25, 21-25, 18-16.
Odds Rice beats WKU: 35%
MAC Ohio (39) I think is in regardless, so this would be a real bid stealer. Fortunately, the MAC tournament is in Athens. Ohio hosts Western Michigan today followed by the winner of Miami and NIU tomorrow.
Odds Ohio loses: 32%
MVC Illinois State (44) would be firmly on the bubble with a loss after going undefeated in the MVC regular season. They get the bye in the MVC's 6-2 team bracket and will play either Missouri St or SIU on Friday (for what it's worth, Pablo thinks Missouri St is the second best team in the league) then likely take on host UNI on Saturday.
Odds Illinois St loses: 53%
Sun Belt Arkansas-Little Rock (41) went undefeated in the conference's regular season but must survive an 8-team bracket hosted by #2 Texas State.
Odds UALR loses: 51%
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Post by dorothymantooth on Nov 23, 2014 13:33:40 GMT -5
32 At-Large Bids (sorted in order of RPI)Green teams are locks (or everything but locks) to NCAA tournament. Blue teams have eligibility issues. Orange teams are on the bubble, but have more breathing room than Yellow teams. Yellow teams are firmly on the bubble and every game is vital. Florida State (3)Washington (4)Oregon (8)Illinois (9)Penn State (10)Nebraska (11)Kentucky (13)Arizona (14)Iowa State (15)Kansas (16)UCLA (17)Kansas State (18)Texas A&M (19)Southern California (20) - (.500 eligibility concern) Duke (22) Colorado (24) Oklahoma (25) Miami-FL (27) Alabama (28) UCF (29) Hawaii (30) Creighton (31) Ohio State (33) Loyola Marymount (34) Oregon State (35) Arizona State (36) Cal St. Northridge (37) LSU (38) Utah (40) San Diego (43) Santa Clara (45) Purdue (47) As you can see, I nearly went strictly by RPI. Not because I believe the RPI is going to be the sole determiner, but with a combination of all the factors and overall body of works of each team, I think if the bracket was pulled today the committee would go strictly by RPI, but leaving Southern Methodist out (and maybe Miami-FL). Do I think it's going to happen? It's possible - but probably not. I'm really concerned with Lipscomb stealing a bid if they are upset. The other four could all miss out (Western Kentucky, UALR, Illinois State, Ohio)
I didn't have the cojones to leave Miami out. Maybe next week, we'll see. Only two more full weeks of play until all matches have concluded.Other serious at-large contenders: (46) Southern Methodist - SMU has chances to win. If they win out, including beating Temple and Tulsa, they may have a chance for a berth. But even then, it is not guaranteed. Watch out for both Temple and Tulsa, who have been playing well and recently both beat UCF, to both beat SMU, and put them in a better position for a bid than SMU. (48) Michigan - Big Blue needs to get eligible. If they finish 15-15, I'll all but guarantee a berth for the Wolverines. (49) Michigan State - State needs to finish strong. I'd like to see them win out, to be a right on the bubble for an at-large bid. They may even knock Purdue out! (50) Virginia Tech - Can the Hokies be a contender if they are eligible? Well, they've certainly got some wins, but the amount of losses are hurting. It'd be amazing to see how high their RPI would go if they won all of the games against lower ranked RPI teams.. (51) Minnesota - Not winning a game against a top-tier B1G team would have been okay if their RPI was higher, but since they have remaining matches at weaker teams, I think Minnesota is going to end up OUT of the NCAA tournament. (52) Xavier - The Musketeers saved their postseason hopes with a win at Butler. Had they lost, they would not have made the Big East tournament, or the NCAA tournament. They still have to win the Big East tournament to make an NCAA appearance, I think. Even an upset over Creighton in the B-East Semifinals shouldn't be enough for an at-large bid, they'll have to win a conference tournament. But it's seriously Déjà vu for Xavier, this is the THIRD straight year they are probably going to finish with an RPI in the mid-50's, just outside the NCAA tournament. Sad case. I believe the last two years their season ended at the hands of Marquette. (53) Tulsa - Tulsa registered a major upset over UCF to get them back on the bubble. This is the same team that started 0-4 in AAC play. Since then, they are 10-1 in conference. They'll meet Temple this week. If Temple beats Tulsa, I think Tulsa's at-large chances are over, even if they win-out including beating Southern Methodist. (54) Pittsburgh - Virginia Tech beat Pittsburgh (again). Tech has beaten Pittsburgh twice in the past three weeks. Ouch. How can you put Pitt in over the Hokies (if the Hokies even finish eligible, that is). Pittsburgh has one impressive win, which may or may not be a top-25 victory, depending on how Duke finishes. As of now, that is not enough. Pittsburgh is OUT! (especially considering Miami just beat them, and Miami is not even that safe) (55) Pacific - I feel for Pacific. I really do. 21-7. Wins over: Loyola Marymount, UALR, Santa Clara. Worst Loss: 45 RPI Santa Clara. Three top-50 wins, but none top-25. Their best chance remains against Loyola Marymount, but it will be in Westchester. Combine that with the fact that Pacific plays three more matches, and two are against teams with losing-records, and it doesn't look good for Pacific. BUT, if they win out, they'll finish with maybe 4-top 50 victories, will that be enough? Or will the team they potentially beat twice (LMU) get in, while they sit out at 24-7? (56) Virginia - Virginia has too many bad losses. Liberty, VCU, Ball State, Loyola. Not enough wins to compensate for those losses. Virginia doesn't have a chance for a top-25 win, maybe a few more top-50 wins depending on how the ACC finishes out. Either way, I think Virginia is out. (57) Seton Hall - Seton Hall almost has a top-25 win over Marquette and no 100+ losses, but played a very weak SOS. I don't see them getting an at-large bid, and splitting with Xavier didn't help. If they beat Xavier twice, maybe consideration would be made for the Pirates? Regardless, I don't think they will be in the NCAA's. But if they win out but lose in the Big East Championship, they may squeeze in or be one of the last teams out. (58) Baylor - Poor Baylor. Such an inconsistent team. They needed to beat the 100+RPI teams they lost to. Baylor is on life-support.. (59) Northwestern - Northwestern has not been impressive as of late and has been drifting out of NCAA at-large range. Don't count on a bid, the Cats need to probably win out. (that includes beating Penn State) (60) Temple - Temple is hot. If they win out, they should finish 2nd or maybe even first in the AAC. As far as an at-large bid, they certainly need to win out but I don't think it will be enough. It will certainly test the committee. Temple had some early injuries, maybe they will look at that? Not sure, their best bet is for UCF to somehow let the conference title slip away. (Would UCF be on the bubble in that case?) Honorable Mention (Long Shot) At-Large contenders (61) UNLV - see below (62) Wyoming - see below (63) New Mexico - The MWC trio has three teams at 61, 62, and 63. New Mexico just beat Wyoming but doesn't have an impressive resume. Wyoming beat UNLV twice, but those are their best wins. No Top 50 wins. UNLV beat Colorado State, but lost to Wyoming twice. Regardless, none of these three should be in the NCAA tournament. UNLV losses to Wyomingx2, and CSUNx2, really could have helped them into the NCAA's if they could have turned those into wins. (64) LIU Brooklyn - Great season for LIU Brooklyn, and they should be able to take care of business to (65) George Washington - Not a chance for an at-large, but keep an eye on them in the A-10 tournament, they may shock Dayton (again). (66) UTSA - UTSA could have been an at-large contender after winning 15 straight, but the loss to North Texas cooled them down and puts them in a win-or-die situation in the C-USA tournament. (67) Wichita State - Nothing really stands out about Wichita State, but they could make a run in the MVC tournament. (68) Arkansas State - Nothing significant on their resume, but they certainly are surprising me by having a #68 RPI ranking. Not sure how they are so high, but hey, watch out for them in the Sun Belt Tournament. (69) Harvard - Great season, but they need to beat Yale to get into the tournament. (70) Arkansas - Jumping over Ole Miss in RPI, but still too far out to be on the bubble Highest RPI as of Today excluded from the NCAA tournament: 46 Southern MethodistLast Four In: Miami-FL, LSU, Purdue, Cal State NorthridgeLast Four Out: Pacific, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Southern MethodistNext Four Out: Virginia Tech (ineligible), Xavier, Minnesota, Tulsa. After the results of this weekend, and adding Libscomb to the at large discussion, I see a lot of these bubble bids starting to fill up. All of your orange teams are IN the tournament. Miami, Hawaii, Utah, LSU, San Diego, and Santa Clara are IN the tournament. that leaves, by my calculation, just two bids left for teams like Libscomb, CSNU, Purdue, Pacific, Southern Methodist, Michigan State, Minnesota. IMO some of the secondary criteria favors Libscomb and CSNU over the others. Also, this is assuming USC gets another win (probably unlikely, but certainly not out of the question) and qualifies. If they don't, that opens up another bid. I think Purdue vs MSU may be a knock-out game. Winner in, loser out possibly. Go Boilers
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Post by rockhopper on Nov 23, 2014 14:37:09 GMT -5
The Atlantic Sun should be a one-bid team. I don't like Lipscomb as an at-large. So you want to exclude them because they are from the ASUN? If Lipscomb has earned an at large bid based on the selection criteria, then they, like anyone else, should get it regardless of conference affiliation.
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Nov 23, 2014 15:40:30 GMT -5
The Atlantic Sun should be a one-bid team. I don't like Lipscomb as an at-large. So you want to exclude them because they are from the ASUN? If Lipscomb has earned an at large bid based on the selection criteria, then they, like anyone else, should get it regardless of conference affiliation. Your point highlights the problem with the Committee putting so much weight in RPI. The Atlantic Sun Conference does not deserve 2 bids to the tourney. The fact that the Committee could take a pedestrian team like Lipscomb (with zero tournament experience) over teams like Purdue, Santa Clara, CSUN, San Diego, etc is disappointing.
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Post by ay2013 on Nov 23, 2014 15:44:48 GMT -5
So you want to exclude them because they are from the ASUN? If Lipscomb has earned an at large bid based on the selection criteria, then they, like anyone else, should get it regardless of conference affiliation. Your point highlights the problem with the Committee putting so much weight in RPI. The Atlantic Sun Conference does not deserve 2 bids to the tourney. The fact that the Committee could take a pedestrian team like Lipscomb (with zero tournament experience) over teams like Purdue, Santa Clara, CSUN, San Diego, etc is disappointing. I would agree that ASUN doesn't deserve two bids, but your last comment really shouldn't factor in. there mere fact that Lipscomb doesn't have tournament experience and other teams in consideration do, should not, in fairness, have any impact in which teams get a bid.
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 23, 2014 15:46:20 GMT -5
Your point highlights the problem with the Committee putting so much weight in RPI. The Atlantic Sun Conference does not deserve 2 bids to the tourney. The fact that the Committee could take a pedestrian team like Lipscomb (with zero tournament experience) over teams like Purdue, Santa Clara, CSUN, San Diego, etc is disappointing. I would agree that ASUN doesn't deserve two bids, but your last comment really shouldn't factor in. there mere fact that Lipscomb doesn't have tournament experience and other teams in consideration do, should not, in fairness, have any impact in which teams get a bid. But I don't think Lipscomb's profile deserves a spot by any measure other than raw RPI? Wins over Kansas and ILLState don't override their losses to other bubble teams, nor their 3 sub-100 losses.
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Post by Barefoot In Kailua on Nov 23, 2014 15:46:59 GMT -5
Your point highlights the problem with the Committee putting so much weight in RPI. The Atlantic Sun Conference does not deserve 2 bids to the tourney. The fact that the Committee could take a pedestrian team like Lipscomb (with zero tournament experience) over teams like Purdue, Santa Clara, CSUN, San Diego, etc is disappointing. I would agree that ASUN doesn't deserve two bids, but your last comment really shouldn't factor in. there mere fact that Lipscomb doesn't have tournament experience and other teams in consideration do, should not, in fairness, have any impact in which teams get a bid. It doesn't factor in but that is my opinion. Tired of pretenders getting selected over better teams that can actually be competitive in the NCAA's.
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