RPI Futures - Week 12 (11/12/18)

[bluepenquin]

RPI Futures is a season ending projected RPI based on current wins and losses and the win probability of all future scheduled matches per Pablo rating.

This reflects most of the 1st round conference tournament matches.

RPI Futures Rank (last week rank) School - Conference RPI Score/% (rounded projected wins - losses) - RPI Futures SOS

1. (1) Stanford - Pac 12 .7421 (27-2) - 3
2. (3) Illinois - Big Ten .7071 (27-4) - 6
3. (2) BYU - West Coast .7042 (28-0) - 29
4. (4) Minnesota - Big Ten .7024 (26-2) - 11
5. (5) Texas - Big 12 .6962 (19-5) - 2
6. (6) USC - Pac 12 .6872 (22-9) - 1
7. (7) Pittsburgh - Atlantic Coast .6870 (28-2) - 30
8. (8) Kentucky - Southeastern .6824 (23-5) - 9
9. (9) Wisconsin - Big Ten .6808 (21-7) - 4
10. (10) UCF - American Athletic .6672 (26-4) - 24
11. (12) Washington State - Pac 12 .6591 (22-8) - 7
12. (11) Nebraska - Big Ten .6581 (23-7) - 17
13. (18) Marquette - Big East .6427 (26-5) - 49
14. (15) Creighton - Big East .6425 (26-4) - 62
15. (13) Penn State - Big Ten .6420 (23-7) - 21
16. (17) Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley .6409 (23-8) - 13
17. (20) Baylor - Big 12 .6393 (19-8) - 10
18. (16) Purdue - Big Ten .6361 (23-8) - 14
19. (22) Florida - Southeastern .6343 (24-6) - 43
20. (26) Washington - Pac 12 .6334 (19-11) - 5
21. (19) Oregon - Pac 12 .6302 (20-10) - 12
22. (23) Cal Poly - Big West .6297 (25-2) - 102
23. (14) Michigan - Big Ten .6285 (22-9) - 15
24. (21) Cincinnati - American Athletic .6269 (25-7) - 37
25. (24) Texas State - Sun Belt .6258 (24-6) - 46
26. (28) Illinois State - Missouri Valley .6168 (25-5) - 75
27. (27) Florida State - Atlantic Coast .6140 (19-9) - 23
28. (31) South Carolina - Southeastern .6137 (20-8) - 31
29. (30) Missouri - Southeastern .6111 (24-6) - 74
30. (29) East Tennessee State - Southern .6074 (26-5) - 107
31. (38) Dayton - Atlantic 10 .6070 (21-7) - 59
32. (32) Tennessee - Southeastern .6043 (23-7) - 85
33. (35) Syracuse - Atlantic Coast .6031 (18-8) - 45
34. (33) Kansas - Big 12 .6027 (17-10) - 27
35. (25) Rice - Conference USA .6009 (22-6) - 83
36. (37) Colorado State - Mountain West .5999 (24-6) - 89
37. (36) Louisville - Atlantic Coast .5998 (21-8) - 68
38. (34) UCLA - Pac 12 .5960 (14-13) - 8
39. (41) Denver - The Summit .5928 (27-1) - 254
40. (42) Pepperdine - West Coast .5907 (20-9) - 60
41. (44) Yale - Ivy .5888 (19-4) - 136
42. (39) Duke - Atlantic Coast .5884 (16-11) - 26
43. (52) Utah - Pac 12 .5872 (17-14) - 19
44. (46) Saint Marys - West Coast .5858 (18-10) - 54
45. (45) Arizona - Pac 12 .5851 (21-11) - 69
46. (47) San Diego - West Coast .5845 (17-11) - 34
47. (40) Stephen F. Austin - Southland .5832 (30-2) - 259
48. (53) Princeton - Ivy .5793 (19-6) - 119
49. (48) James Madison - Colonial .5788 (21-6) - 138
50. (43) Hawaii - Big West .5785 (17-9) - 73
51. (54) Western Kentucky - Conference USA .5779 (21-9) - 87
52. (68) College of Charleston - Colonial .5742 (21-10) - 79
53. (59) Loyola Marymount - West Coast .5738 (20-9) - 95
54. (62) Florida Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun .5735 (24-6) - 176
55. (83) Maryland - Big Ten .5733 (18-14) - 32
56. (49) Notre Dame - Atlantic Coast .5721 (16-12) - 41
57. (50) Kansas State - Big 12 .5721 (14-13) - 28
58. (63) Colorado - Pac 12 .5718 (17-14) - 39
59. (64) Austin Peay - Ohio Valley .5715 (26-4) - 236
60. (69) Tulane - American Athletic .5706 (25-8) - 152
61. (58) Indiana - Big Ten .5701 (17-14) - 40
62. (67) VCU - Atlantic 10 .5700 (18-8) - 104
63. (72) New Mexico State - Western Athletic .5698 (22-7) - 133
64. (77) Miami-OH - Mid-American .5679 (21-7) - 150
65. (70) Alabama - Southeastern .5677 (20-12) - 80
66. (56) Texas Tech - Big 12 .5673 (17-13) - 58
67. (66) Northwestern - Big Ten .5672 (16-16) - 22
68. (74) Hofstra - Colonial .5663 (23-7) - 184
69. (75) UTSA - Conference USA .5661 (20-7) - 125
70. (71) UC Irvine - Big West .5659 (16-12) - 56
71. (51) Wichita State - American Athletic .5657 (14-16) - 18
72. (73) UT Rio Grande Valley - Western Athletic .5654 (22-8) - 129
73. (81) Florida Atlantic - Conference USA .5645 (21-7) - 180
74. (65) Tulsa - American Athletic .5644 (20-10) - 90
75. (86) Oklahoma - Big 12 .5643 (17-11) - 64
76. (60) High Point - Big South .5642 (19-9) - 103
77. (57) Miami-FL - Atlantic Coast .5642 (14-11) - 47
78. (80) Kennesaw State - Atlantic Sun .5623 (23-6) - 210
79. (61) Valparaiso - Missouri Valley .5621 (23-10) - 123
80. (55) Portland - West Coast .5608 (19-11) - 93
81. (85) Iowa - Big Ten .5605 (16-15) - 42
82. (76) Iowa State - Big 12 .5591 (15-14) - 38
83. (88) UMKC - Western Athletic .5582 (21-9) - 120
84. (79) TCU - Big 12 .5574 (15-12) - 51
85. (78) Georgia - Southeastern .5558 (16-13) - 57
86. (92) Fresno State - Mountain West .5543 (22-8) - 165
87. (97) LSU - Southeastern .5521 (12-17) - 20
88. (89) Michigan State - Big Ten .5521 (17-16) - 53
89. (84) Wyoming - Mountain West .5519 (19-11) - 113
90. (87) Arizona State - Pac 12 .5508 (14-18) - 25
91. (112) Bradley - Missouri Valley .5504 (22-8) - 206
92. (100) Appalachian State - Sun Belt .5500 (21-7) - 216
93. (82) Ohio State - Big Ten .5492 (12-20) - 16
94. (96) Cal - Pac 12 .5488 (15-16) - 48
95. (102) NC State - Atlantic Coast .5473 (14-14) - 55
96. (94) UCSB - Big West .5469 (17-11) - 98
97. (90) Texas A&M - Southeastern .5468 (16-14) - 65
98. (91) Georgia Tech - Atlantic Coast .5465 (17-14) - 71
99. (98) Navy - Patriot .5443 (21-8) - 213
100. (101) USF - American Athletic .5435 (20-11) - 128
101. (103) Bowling Green - Mid-American .5433 (19-10) - 145
102. (104) St. Johns - Big East .5424 (23-10) - 191
103. (113) Stony Brook - America East .5415 (20-8) - 211
104. (93) Radford - Big South .5397 (20-5) - 277
105. (115) Clemson - Atlantic Coast .5390 (17-14) - 88
106. (107) Missouri State - Missouri Valley .5387 (17-14) - 94
107. (108) Ball State - Mid-American .5386 (21-8) - 233
108. (105) Arkansas - Southeastern .5382 (12-16) - 44
109. (114) Arkansas-Little Rock - Sun Belt .5380 (18-11) - 124
110. (110) Central Arkansas - Southland .5351 (25-5) - 287
111. (106) Utah Valley - Western Athletic .5347 (17-12) - 109
112. (99) Auburn - Southeastern .5338 (11-17) - 33
113. (95) American - Patriot .5336 (19-12) - 139
114. (133) SMU - American Athletic .5323 (12-16) - 52
115. (116) UNLV - Mountain West .5320 (19-11) - 181
116. (119) Buffalo - Mid-American .5318 (18-10) - 182
117. (125) Murray State - Ohio Valley .5314 (20-9) - 220
118. (118) Lipscomb - Atlantic Sun .5309 (18-11) - 153
119. (111) Arkansas State - Sun Belt .5308 (18-12) - 135
120. (121) Northern Arizona - Big Sky .5304 (23-8) - 265
121. (122) Boise State - Mountain West .5292 (18-11) - 187
122. (117) Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt .5278 (12-12) - 86
123. (126) South Dakota - The Summit .5270 (19-9) - 235
124. (137) Florida International - Conference USA .5262 (17-12) - 157
125. (148) Pacific - West Coast .5260 (13-16) - 70
126. (109) UC Davis - Big West .5256 (16-12) - 141
127. (130) Weber State - Big Sky .5249 (18-9) - 218
128. (129) Villanova - Big East .5243 (16-14) - 117
129. (123) UNCW - Colonial .5237 (15-12) - 137
130. (138) Towson - Colonial .5233 (17-14) - 115
131. (120) California Baptist - Western Athletic .5221 (18-10) - 221
132. (132) Idaho - Big Sky .5211 (21-9) - 269
133. (136) Cornell - Ivy .5208 (14-10) - 159
134. (127) Ole Miss - Southeastern .5207 (14-18) - 67
135. (144) Northern Kentucky - Horizon .5194 (20-8) - 270
136. (131) Drake - Missouri Valley .5191 (19-14) - 174
137. (143) North Texas - Conference USA .5189 (16-16) - 100
138. (128) Loyola-Chicago - Missouri Valley .5178 (16-14) - 126
139. (142) Houston - American Athletic .5167 (17-16) - 116
140. (124) Cleveland State - Horizon .5164 (17-11) - 207
141. (140) CSU Bakersfield - Western Athletic .5163 (15-14) - 110
142. (145) Samford - Southern .5161 (17-14) - 146
143. (134) UT Arlington - Sun Belt .5159 (16-11) - 177
144. (146) Long Beach State - Big West .5147 (16-13) - 143
145. (149) Northern Colorado - Big Sky .5145 (14-13) - 131
146. (147) West Virginia - Big 12 .5140 (12-18) - 61
147. (135) Virginia Tech - Atlantic Coast .5133 (15-15) - 114
148. (150) Green Bay - Horizon .5125 (18-10) - 251
149. (152) Sam Houston State - Southland .5102 (22-7) - 295
150. (155) Northeastern - Colonial .5100 (16-14) - 173
151. (162) San Jose State - Mountain West .5100 (15-12) - 161
152. (139) Wofford - Southern .5098 (15-15) - 112
153. (154) UConn - American Athletic .5075 (14-17) - 108
154. (156) Omaha - The Summit .5075 (18-11) - 244
155. (141) New Mexico - Mountain West .5061 (14-16) - 118
156. (151) Oregon State - Pac 12 .5045 (12-20) - 72
157. (160) LIU Brooklyn - Northeast .5036 (16-8) - 273
158. (158) Georgetown - Big East .5034 (16-14) - 183
159. (153) Illinois-Chicago - Horizon .5028 (18-12) - 243
160. (159) Harvard - Ivy .5025 (11-12) - 134
161. (184) Winthrop - Big South .5024 (16-13) - 197
162. (157) Southern Miss - Conference USA .5013 (15-15) - 170
163. (169) Idaho State - Big Sky .5003 (18-13) - 252
164. (161) Colgate - Patriot .4985 (14-14) - 168
165. (164) Air Force - Mountain West .4984 (15-17) - 148
166. (167) Gonzaga - West Coast .4976 (10-19) - 66
167. (174) Iona - Metro Atlantic .4964 (18-7) - 305
168. (171) Lehigh - Patriot .4958 (20-8) - 301
169. (175) Louisiana-Lafayette - Sun Belt .4957 (15-15) - 186
170. (170) Howard - Mid-Eastern .4942 (17-10) - 282
171. (166) Xavier - Big East .4939 (11-18) - 91
172. (186) Western Michigan - Mid-American .4936 (16-14) - 226
173. (173) Charlotte - Conference USA .4934 (16-15) - 209
174. (192) North Carolina - Atlantic Coast .4933 (8-19) - 50
175. (168) UAB - Conference USA .4924 (13-15) - 155
176. (190) Morehead State - Ohio Valley .4918 (21-9) - 302
177. (163) La Salle - Atlantic 10 .4913 (18-11) - 278
178. (172) Eastern Michigan - Mid-American .4913 (18-13) - 258
179. (194) Liberty - Atlantic Sun .4913 (15-16) - 169
180. (183) Temple - American Athletic .4911 (7-23) - 35
181. (165) Sacramento State - Big Sky .4889 (16-16) - 219
182. (188) Davidson - Atlantic 10 .4886 (12-13) - 192
183. (191) Mercer - Southern .4882 (15-13) - 247
184. (182) Furman - Southern .4877 (13-15) - 158
185. (185) Fort Wayne - The Summit .4876 (18-13) - 267
186. (180) Abilene Christian - Southland .4871 (14-15) - 188
187. (207) Wright State - Horizon .4869 (15-14) - 238
188. (178) Stetson - Atlantic Sun .4850 (16-13) - 260
189. (193) Boston College - Atlantic Coast .4837 (14-16) - 200
190. (189) Houston Baptist - Southland .4836 (15-16) - 230
191. (220) UNC Asheville - Big South .4831 (16-11) - 274
192. (181) Grand Canyon - Western Athletic .4823 (12-16) - 147
193. (176) Memphis - American Athletic .4821 (11-19) - 122
194. (179) South Alabama - Sun Belt .4820 (13-17) - 179
195. (218) UNC Greensboro - Southern .4817 (13-16) - 201
196. (177) Ohio - Mid-American .4811 (13-17) - 156
197. (211) Army - Patriot .4810 (14-15) - 227
198. (213) UT Martin - Ohio Valley .4809 (14-17) - 203
199. (196) Cal State Northridge - Big West .4806 (8-20) - 81
200. (199) Butler - Big East .4802 (10-20) - 97
201. (198) New Hampshire - America East .4802 (12-15) - 212
202. (200) Northwestern State - Southland .4799 (12-15) - 204
203. (209) Indiana State - Missouri Valley .4797 (10-20) - 106
204. (187) East Carolina - American Athletic .4788 (12-16) - 154
205. (203) San Francisco - West Coast .4786 (9-20) - 82
206. (208) San Diego State - Mountain West .4779 (10-21) - 101
207. (221) Saint Louis - Atlantic 10 .4771 (8-19) - 77
208. (210) Rutgers - Big Ten .4768 (6-27) - 36
209. (204) Seton Hall - Big East .4762 (10-21) - 96
210. (202) Southeast Missouri - Ohio Valley .4757 (16-14) - 276
211. (197) Albany - America East .4742 (16-10) - 291
212. (230) Central Connecticut State - Northeast .4736 (14-12) - 268
213. (206) Loyola University Maryland - Patriot .4730 (14-15) - 237
214. (224) Wake Forest - Atlantic Coast .4724 (9-21) - 99
215. (201) Oakland - Horizon .4723 (10-17) - 142
216. (205) Dartmouth - Ivy .4707 (10-15) - 185
217. (195) Bryant - Northeast .4696 (20-13) - 303
218. (214) North Dakota - The Summit .4691 (14-19) - 223
219. (227) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - Southland .4689 (9-21) - 105
220. (234) Canisius - Metro Atlantic .4657 (16-11) - 300
221. (231) Chattanooga - Southern .4653 (10-20) - 132
222. (239) Sacred Heart - Northeast .4652 (16-10) - 309
223. (223) Virginia - Atlantic Coast .4649 (9-19) - 121
224. (251) George Washington - Atlantic 10 .4646 (11-15) - 231
225. (236) Jacksonville State - Ohio Valley .4643 (18-13) - 296
226. (222) Santa Clara - West Coast .4636 (7-23) - 76
227. (219) Elon - Colonial .4635 (13-15) - 256
228. (216) Columbia - Ivy .4628 (10-14) - 222
229. (226) Duquesne - Atlantic 10 .4627 (12-16) - 245
230. (217) Delaware - Colonial .4626 (9-19) - 130
231. (228) Northern Illinois - Mid-American .4620 (11-21) - 172
232. (215) Seattle - Western Athletic .4613 (10-19) - 166
233. (232) Western Carolina - Southern .4609 (13-15) - 262
234. (250) McNeese State - Southland .4602 (10-22) - 140
235. (225) Marshall - Conference USA .4602 (10-19) - 162
236. (229) Evansville - Missouri Valley .4592 (9-22) - 127
237. (212) George Mason - Atlantic 10 .4584 (10-15) - 242
238. (237) Southern Illinois - Missouri Valley .4580 (5-26) - 63
239. (246) Troy University - Sun Belt .4563 (11-19) - 198
240. (258) Charleston Southern - Big South .4563 (13-12) - 293
241. (235) Campbell - Big South .4543 (9-17) - 194
242. (240) Akron - Mid-American .4533 (11-16) - 240
243. (243) Brown - Ivy .4530 (11-13) - 272
244. (233) Kent State - Mid-American .4527 (13-18) - 257
245. (242) Montana State - Big Sky .4527 (12-17) - 246
246. (241) Utah State - Mountain West .4512 (5-24) - 84
247. (248) Mississippi State - Southeastern .4499 (5-26) - 78
248. (254) UC Riverside - Big West .4493 (9-19) - 189
249. (263) Alabama State - Southwestern Athletic .4490 (20-17) - 304
250. (247) UTEP - Conference USA .4481 (5-21) - 92
251. (252) New Orleans - Southland .4477 (12-19) - 228
252. (238) Nevada - Mountain West .4470 (8-21) - 164
253. (249) SIUE - Ohio Valley .4467 (9-20) - 190
254. (245) Louisiana-Monroe - Sun Belt .4465 (11-19) - 234
255. (270) North Dakota State - The Summit .4448 (8-20) - 160
256. (257) Toledo - Mid-American .4440 (9-18) - 225
257. (272) The Citadel - Southern .4440 (11-19) - 248
258. (268) Chicago State - Western Athletic .4431 (9-24) - 163
259. (264) Incarnate Word - Southland .4426 (10-17) - 253
260. (259) Presbyterian - Big South .4420 (10-17) - 255
261. (260) Rhode Island - Atlantic 10 .4419 (9-17) - 241
262. (267) UNF - Atlantic Sun .4416 (11-22) - 232
263. (262) Fairfield - Metro Atlantic .4415 (13-15) - 285
264. (255) Rider - Metro Atlantic .4414 (18-10) - 327
265. (261) Eastern Illinois - Ohio Valley .4412 (10-21) - 208
266. (256) Central Michigan - Mid-American .4407 (7-21) - 149
267. (244) Marist - Metro Atlantic .4385 (15-14) - 306
268. (277) IUPUI - Horizon .4383 (9-21) - 214
269. (265) Fordham - Atlantic 10 .4380 (10-17) - 266
270. (275) Alabama A&M - Southwestern Athletic .4379 (21-14) - 326
271. (253) Oral Roberts - The Summit .4376 (9-19) - 229
272. (273) Milwaukee - Horizon .4371 (8-22) - 193
273. (274) Holy Cross - Patriot .4363 (8-21) - 196
274. (269) DePaul - Big East .4361 (5-24) - 111
275. (266) Providence - Big East .4349 (8-21) - 202
276. (271) Florida A&M - Mid-Eastern .4317 (10-16) - 283
277. (282) Bethune-Cookman - Mid-Eastern .4306 (15-15) - 311
278. (283) Montana - Big Sky .4280 (9-21) - 249
279. (276) William & Mary - Colonial .4276 (5-20) - 151
280. (279) Southern Utah - Big Sky .4274 (6-24) - 144
281. (278) Maryland Eastern Shore - Mid-Eastern .4266 (10-15) - 288
282. (286) Penn - Ivy .4254 (6-19) - 199
283. (280) South Carolina Upstate - Big South .4244 (12-19) - 286
284. (292) Tennessee State - Ohio Valley .4232 (9-19) - 261
285. (285) UMBC - America East .4225 (7-19) - 215
286. (284) Middle Tennessee - Conference USA .4219 (7-21) - 217
287. (281) South Dakota State - The Summit .4208 (6-23) - 178
288. (287) Robert Morris - Northeast .4191 (11-18) - 292
289. (288) Morgan State - Mid-Eastern .4189 (13-14) - 319
290. (289) Portland State - Big Sky .4186 (5-25) - 167
291. (290) Georgia State - Sun Belt .4180 (7-19) - 250
292. (291) Belmont - Ohio Valley .4139 (5-23) - 171
293. (296) Hartford - America East .4124 (11-14) - 315
294. (294) Eastern Kentucky - Ohio Valley .4108 (5-23) - 195
295. (295) Jacksonville - Atlantic Sun .4102 (5-24) - 175
296. (293) St. Francis-PA - Northeast .4087 (5-22) - 205
297. (297) Georgia Southern - Sun Belt .4051 (9-22) - 284
298. (300) Lamar - Southland .4029 (7-20) - 275
299. (305) North Carolina A&T - Mid-Eastern .3998 (12-11) - 333
300. (298) Youngstown State - Horizon .3979 (7-22) - 279
301. (304) Quinnipiac - Metro Atlantic .3975 (9-20) - 290
302. (302) Cal State Fullerton - Big West .3950 (6-23) - 263
303. (299) Tennessee Tech - Ohio Valley .3950 (11-19) - 317
304. (301) Hampton - Big South .3928 (8-19) - 294
305. (307) Eastern Washington - Big Sky .3881 (8-22) - 298
306. (303) Niagara - Metro Atlantic .3875 (9-19) - 310
307. (306) Louisiana Tech - Conference USA .3871 (6-23) - 280
308. (308) Binghamton - America East .3850 (5-20) - 281
309. (311) Western Illinois - The Summit .3843 (3-26) - 224
310. (309) Gardner-Webb - Big South .3830 (7-22) - 289
311. (313) North Alabama - Atlantic Sun .3814 (4-21) - 264
312. (317) Coppin State - Mid-Eastern .3812 (12-19) - 324
313. (312) Nicholls State - Southland .3805 (3-26) - 239
314. (314) St. Francis-Brooklyn - Northeast .3784 (10-18) - 322
315. (316) Bucknell - Patriot .3750 (8-19) - 314
316. (315) Texas Southern - Southwestern Athletic .3726 (10-21) - 316
317. (310) Arkansas-Pine Bluff - Southwestern Athletic .3559 (6-21) - 299
318. (321) Southern - Southwestern Athletic .3539 (12-16) - 336
319. (323) Saint Peters - Metro Atlantic .3513 (8-25) - 313
320. (318) Southeastern Louisiana - Southland .3499 (2-27) - 271
321. (319) Jackson State - Southwestern Athletic .3454 (11-22) - 331
322. (320) Lafayette - Patriot .3450 (5-23) - 307
323. (324) UMass-Lowell - America East .3444 (5-21) - 318
324. (327) Siena - Metro Atlantic .3404 (4-28) - 297
325. (322) North Carolina Central - Mid-Eastern .3394 (6-18) - 328
326. (325) Grambling State - Southwestern Athletic .3387 (7-22) - 320
327. (326) Manhattan College - Metro Atlantic .3364 (5-27) - 308
328. (328) Prairie View A&M - Southwestern Athletic .3246 (7-21) - 329
329. (329) NJIT - Atlantic Sun .3177 (4-28) - 312
330. (330) Norfolk State - Mid-Eastern .3164 (4-17) - 330
331. (331) Alcorn State - Southwestern Athletic .3133 (6-16) - 335
332. (333) Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast .2899 (2-28) - 321
333. (332) Savannah State - Mid-Eastern .2889 (3-21) - 334
334. (334) Delaware State - Mid-Eastern .2859 (2-27) - 323
335. (335) Mississippi Valley State - Southwestern Athletic .2753 (2-27) - 325
336. (336) South Carolina State - Mid-Eastern .2637 (1-25) - 332

[bluepenquin]

America East Stony Brook - 103
America East New Hampshire - 201
America East Albany - 211
America East UMBC - 285
America East Hartford - 293
America East Binghamton - 308
America East UMass-Lowell - 323

American Athletic UCF - 10
American Athletic Cincinnati - 24
American Athletic Tulane - 60
American Athletic Wichita State - 71
American Athletic Tulsa - 74
American Athletic USF - 100
American Athletic SMU - 114
American Athletic Houston - 139
American Athletic UConn - 153
American Athletic Temple - 180
American Athletic Memphis - 193
American Athletic East Carolina - 204

Atlantic 10 Dayton - 31
Atlantic 10 VCU - 62
Atlantic 10 La Salle - 177
Atlantic 10 Davidson - 182
Atlantic 10 Saint Louis - 207
Atlantic 10 George Washington - 224
Atlantic 10 Duquesne - 229
Atlantic 10 George Mason - 237
Atlantic 10 Rhode Island - 261
Atlantic 10 Fordham - 269

Atlantic Coast Pittsburgh - 7
Atlantic Coast Florida State - 27
Atlantic Coast Syracuse - 33
Atlantic Coast Louisville - 37
Atlantic Coast Duke - 42
Atlantic Coast Notre Dame - 56
Atlantic Coast Miami-FL - 77
Atlantic Coast NC State - 95
Atlantic Coast Georgia Tech - 98
Atlantic Coast Clemson - 105
Atlantic Coast Virginia Tech - 147
Atlantic Coast North Carolina - 174
Atlantic Coast Boston College - 189
Atlantic Coast Wake Forest - 214
Atlantic Coast Virginia - 223

Atlantic Sun Florida Gulf Coast - 54
Atlantic Sun Kennesaw State - 78
Atlantic Sun Lipscomb - 118
Atlantic Sun Liberty - 179
Atlantic Sun Stetson - 188
Atlantic Sun UNF - 262
Atlantic Sun Jacksonville - 295
Atlantic Sun North Alabama - 311
Atlantic Sun NJIT - 329

Big 12 Texas - 5
Big 12 Baylor - 17
Big 12 Kansas - 34
Big 12 Kansas State - 57
Big 12 Texas Tech - 66
Big 12 Oklahoma - 75
Big 12 Iowa State - 82
Big 12 TCU - 84
Big 12 West Virginia - 146

Big East Marquette - 13
Big East Creighton - 14
Big East St. Johns - 102
Big East Villanova - 128
Big East Georgetown - 158
Big East Xavier - 171
Big East Butler - 200
Big East Seton Hall - 209
Big East DePaul - 274
Big East Providence - 275

Big Sky Northern Arizona - 120
Big Sky Weber State - 127
Big Sky Idaho - 132
Big Sky Northern Colorado - 145
Big Sky Idaho State - 163
Big Sky Sacramento State - 181
Big Sky Montana State - 245
Big Sky Montana - 278
Big Sky Southern Utah - 280
Big Sky Portland State - 290
Big Sky Eastern Washington - 305

Big South High Point - 76
Big South Radford - 104
Big South Winthrop - 161
Big South UNC Asheville - 191
Big South Charleston Southern - 240
Big South Campbell - 241
Big South Presbyterian - 260
Big South South Carolina Upstate - 283
Big South Hampton - 304
Big South Gardner-Webb - 310

Big Ten Illinois - 2
Big Ten Minnesota - 4
Big Ten Wisconsin - 9
Big Ten Nebraska - 12
Big Ten Penn State - 15
Big Ten Purdue - 18
Big Ten Michigan - 23
Big Ten Maryland - 55
Big Ten Indiana - 61
Big Ten Northwestern - 67
Big Ten Iowa - 81
Big Ten Michigan State - 88
Big Ten Ohio State - 93
Big Ten Rutgers - 208

Big West Cal Poly - 22
Big West Hawaii - 50
Big West UC Irvine - 70
Big West UCSB - 96
Big West UC Davis - 126
Big West Long Beach State - 144
Big West Cal State Northridge - 199
Big West UC Riverside - 248
Big West Cal State Fullerton - 302

Colonial James Madison - 49
Colonial College of Charleston - 52
Colonial Hofstra - 68
Colonial UNCW - 129
Colonial Towson - 130
Colonial Northeastern - 150
Colonial Elon - 227
Colonial Delaware - 230
Colonial William & Mary - 279

Conference USA Rice - 35
Conference USA Western Kentucky - 51
Conference USA UTSA - 69
Conference USA Florida Atlantic - 73
Conference USA Florida International - 124
Conference USA North Texas - 137
Conference USA Southern Miss - 162
Conference USA Charlotte - 173
Conference USA UAB - 175
Conference USA Marshall - 235
Conference USA UTEP - 250
Conference USA Middle Tennessee - 286
Conference USA Louisiana Tech - 307

Horizon Northern Kentucky - 135
Horizon Cleveland State - 140
Horizon Green Bay - 148
Horizon Illinois-Chicago - 159
Horizon Wright State - 187
Horizon Oakland - 215
Horizon IUPUI - 268
Horizon Milwaukee - 272
Horizon Youngstown State - 300

Ivy Yale - 41
Ivy Princeton - 48
Ivy Cornell - 133
Ivy Harvard - 160
Ivy Dartmouth - 216
Ivy Columbia - 228
Ivy Brown - 243
Ivy Penn - 282

Metro Atlantic Iona - 167
Metro Atlantic Canisius - 220
Metro Atlantic Fairfield - 263
Metro Atlantic Rider - 264
Metro Atlantic Marist - 267
Metro Atlantic Quinnipiac - 301
Metro Atlantic Niagara - 306
Metro Atlantic Saint Peters - 319
Metro Atlantic Siena - 324
Metro Atlantic Manhattan College - 327

Mid-American Miami-OH - 64
Mid-American Bowling Green - 101
Mid-American Ball State - 107
Mid-American Buffalo - 116
Mid-American Western Michigan - 172
Mid-American Eastern Michigan - 178
Mid-American Ohio - 196
Mid-American Northern Illinois - 231
Mid-American Akron - 242
Mid-American Kent State - 244
Mid-American Toledo - 256
Mid-American Central Michigan - 266

Mid-Eastern Howard - 170
Mid-Eastern Florida A&M - 276
Mid-Eastern Bethune-Cookman - 277
Mid-Eastern Maryland Eastern Shore - 281
Mid-Eastern Morgan State - 289
Mid-Eastern North Carolina A&T - 299
Mid-Eastern Coppin State - 312
Mid-Eastern North Carolina Central - 325
Mid-Eastern Norfolk State - 330
Mid-Eastern Savannah State - 333
Mid-Eastern Delaware State - 334
Mid-Eastern South Carolina State - 336

Missouri Valley Northern Iowa - 16
Missouri Valley Illinois State - 26
Missouri Valley Valparaiso - 79
Missouri Valley Bradley - 91
Missouri Valley Missouri State - 106
Missouri Valley Drake - 136
Missouri Valley Loyola-Chicago - 138
Missouri Valley Indiana State - 203
Missouri Valley Evansville - 236
Missouri Valley Southern Illinois - 238

Mountain West Colorado State - 36
Mountain West Fresno State - 86
Mountain West Wyoming - 89
Mountain West UNLV - 115
Mountain West Boise State - 121
Mountain West San Jose State - 151
Mountain West New Mexico - 155
Mountain West Air Force - 165
Mountain West San Diego State - 206
Mountain West Utah State - 246
Mountain West Nevada - 252

Northeast LIU Brooklyn - 157
Northeast Central Connecticut State - 212
Northeast Bryant - 217
Northeast Sacred Heart - 222
Northeast Robert Morris - 288
Northeast St. Francis-PA - 296
Northeast St. Francis-Brooklyn - 314
Northeast Fairleigh Dickinson - 332

Ohio Valley Austin Peay - 59
Ohio Valley Murray State - 117
Ohio Valley Morehead State - 176
Ohio Valley UT Martin - 198
Ohio Valley Southeast Missouri - 210
Ohio Valley Jacksonville State - 225
Ohio Valley SIUE - 253
Ohio Valley Eastern Illinois - 265
Ohio Valley Tennessee State - 284
Ohio Valley Belmont - 292
Ohio Valley Eastern Kentucky - 294
Ohio Valley Tennessee Tech - 303

Pac 12 Stanford - 1
Pac 12 USC - 6
Pac 12 Washington State - 11
Pac 12 Washington - 20
Pac 12 Oregon - 21
Pac 12 UCLA - 38
Pac 12 Utah - 43
Pac 12 Arizona - 45
Pac 12 Colorado - 58
Pac 12 Arizona State - 90
Pac 12 Cal - 94
Pac 12 Oregon State - 156

Patriot Navy - 99
Patriot American - 113
Patriot Colgate - 164
Patriot Lehigh - 168
Patriot Army - 197
Patriot Loyola University Maryland - 213
Patriot Holy Cross - 273
Patriot Bucknell - 315
Patriot Lafayette - 322

Southeastern Kentucky - 8
Southeastern Florida - 19
Southeastern South Carolina - 28
Southeastern Missouri - 29
Southeastern Tennessee - 32
Southeastern Alabama - 65
Southeastern Georgia - 85
Southeastern LSU - 87
Southeastern Texas A&M - 97
Southeastern Arkansas - 108
Southeastern Auburn - 112
Southeastern Ole Miss - 134
Southeastern Mississippi State - 247

Southern East Tennessee State - 30
Southern Samford - 142
Southern Wofford - 152
Southern Mercer - 183
Southern Furman - 184
Southern UNC Greensboro - 195
Southern Chattanooga - 221
Southern Western Carolina - 233
Southern The Citadel - 257

Southland Stephen F. Austin - 47
Southland Central Arkansas - 110
Southland Sam Houston State - 149
Southland Abilene Christian - 186
Southland Houston Baptist - 190
Southland Northwestern State - 202
Southland Texas A&M-Corpus Christi - 219
Southland McNeese State - 234
Southland New Orleans - 251
Southland Incarnate Word - 259
Southland Lamar - 298
Southland Nicholls State - 313
Southland Southeastern Louisiana - 320

Southwestern Athletic Alabama State - 249
Southwestern Athletic Alabama A&M - 270
Southwestern Athletic Texas Southern - 316
Southwestern Athletic Arkansas-Pine Bluff - 317
Southwestern Athletic Southern - 318
Southwestern Athletic Jackson State - 321
Southwestern Athletic Grambling State - 326
Southwestern Athletic Prairie View A&M - 328
Southwestern Athletic Alcorn State - 331
Southwestern Athletic Mississippi Valley State - 335

Sun Belt Texas State - 25
Sun Belt Appalachian State - 92
Sun Belt Arkansas-Little Rock - 109
Sun Belt Arkansas State - 119
Sun Belt Coastal Carolina - 122
Sun Belt UT Arlington - 143
Sun Belt Louisiana-Lafayette - 169
Sun Belt South Alabama - 194
Sun Belt Troy University - 239
Sun Belt Louisiana-Monroe - 254
Sun Belt Georgia State - 291
Sun Belt Georgia Southern - 297

The Summit Denver - 39
The Summit South Dakota - 123
The Summit Omaha - 154
The Summit Fort Wayne - 185
The Summit North Dakota - 218
The Summit North Dakota State - 255
The Summit Oral Roberts - 271
The Summit South Dakota State - 287
The Summit Western Illinois - 309

West Coast BYU - 3
West Coast Pepperdine - 40
West Coast Saint Marys - 44
West Coast San Diego - 46
West Coast Loyola Marymount - 53
West Coast Portland - 80
West Coast Pacific - 125
West Coast Gonzaga - 166
West Coast San Francisco - 205
West Coast Santa Clara - 226

Western Athletic New Mexico State - 63
Western Athletic UT Rio Grande Valley - 72
Western Athletic UMKC - 83
Western Athletic Utah Valley - 111
Western Athletic California Baptist - 131
Western Athletic CSU Bakersfield - 141
Western Athletic Grand Canyon - 192
Western Athletic Seattle - 232
Western Athletic Chicago State - 258

[n00b]

By my count (and going strictly by RPI), that would make #51 Western Kentucky as the last team in and #52 College of Charleston as the first team out.

[lionsfan]

2. Illinois - Big Ten .7071 (27-4) – 6
15. Penn State - Big Ten .6420 (23-7) – 21

10. UCF - American Athletic .6672 (26-4) – 24
7. Pittsburgh - Atlantic Coast .6870 (28-2) - 30

I'll take it!

[FreeBall]

UCLA needs to win two of their remaining four matches to be tournament eligible. What are the overall odds of that happening, as well as the odds in each of the remaining matches?

[n00b]

Nov 12, 2018 17:16:20 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

UCLA needs to win two of their remaining four matches to be tournament eligible. What are the overall odds of that happening, as well as the odds in each of the remaining matches?

58% at Arizona State
37% at Arizona
49% vs Colorado
32% vs USC

4-0 -- 3%
3-1 -- 13%
2-2 -- 43%
1-3 -- 31%
0-4 -- 9%

2-2 or better -- 59%

[mikegarrison]

Blue, please remind me, do you round to the nearest integer win/loss and then calculate the RPI futures, or do you directly use the pablo winning percentages as the winning percentages in the RPI formula?

[mikegarrison]

Nov 12, 2018 17:25:04 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 12, 2018 17:16:20 GMT -5 FreeBall said:

UCLA needs to win two of their remaining four matches to be tournament eligible. What are the overall odds of that happening, as well as the odds in each of the remaining matches?

72% at Arizona State
52% at Arizona
34% vs Colorado
20% vs USC

4-0 -- 2%
3-1 -- 16%
2-2 -- 43%
1-3 -- 32%
0-4 -- 7%

2-2 or better -- 61%

Not sure how you got those numbers. I calculate 58%, 36%, 48%, 32% for the next four matches.

Did you not include the pablo HCA factor?

[vbkahuna]

Hey, looks like the Minnesota fans got their wish to have Stanford replace BYU at #1!

Oh, wait...

[bluepenquin]

Nov 12, 2018 17:36:14 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Blue, please remind me, do you round to the nearest integer win/loss and then calculate the RPI futures, or do you directly use the pablo winning percentages as the winning percentages in the RPI formula?

The latter.

[BLASÉ]

question what is hawaiis rip if they win they remaining two. you list them as 17-9 with an rpi of 50

[mikegarrison]

ps. For the UCLA question, I calculate only 40% that UCLA goes at least 2-2.

I had a typo in my spreadsheet formula.

[n00b]

Nov 12, 2018 17:40:00 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Nov 12, 2018 17:25:04 GMT -5 n00b said:

72% at Arizona State
52% at Arizona
34% vs Colorado
20% vs USC

4-0 -- 2%
3-1 -- 16%
2-2 -- 43%
1-3 -- 32%
0-4 -- 7%

2-2 or better -- 61%

Not sure how you got those numbers. I calculate 58%, 36%, 48%, 32% for the next four matches.

Did you not include the pablo HCA factor?

Oops. I applied all four HCAs in the wrong direction. Fixing my previous post now. (With two home and two away, the 2-2 probability is probably gonna be about the same).

[mikegarrison]

Nov 12, 2018 17:47:52 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 12, 2018 17:36:14 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Blue, please remind me, do you round to the nearest integer win/loss and then calculate the RPI futures, or do you directly use the pablo winning percentages as the winning percentages in the RPI formula?

The latter.

OK, thanks. I had Stanford as losing exactly half a match, and I wondered if rounding up or down made a difference when it came to the final RPI prediction. But I guess it has no impact.

[mikegarrison]

Noob, I don't get the same accumulated percentages as you.

Check me here, there is one way to win 4, four ways to win 3, and six ways to win 2?

I get 3% chance to win 4, 18% chance to win 3, and 19% chance to win 2. I wonder if I messed up somewhere or if you did.

=============

I messed something up. Not sure what. My %s don't add up to 100%, though, so clearly I have made a mistake.

=============

OK, I had a typo in my spreadsheet formula. I was supposed to have a "+" and I had a "*+" instead. When I fixed it, I got:

4-0: 3%
3-1: 18%
2-2: 37%
1-3: 32%
0-4: 10%

There is still something different between my results and noob's results, and I'm now pretty confident in my results.

I think noob has included a 3-1 outcome in with the 2-2 outcomes. Doesn't make a difference for the overall chance to go at least 2-2, however.