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Post by pelagius on Nov 12, 2018 20:42:35 GMT -5
Texas only has a 47% chance to beat Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas Tech? If a team has an 80% chance to win against Team A, 80% against Team B, and 80% against Team C, then they have a 51% chance to win all three. I hope that some smart mathematician comes along in next decade and figures out some variable to add to change this formula. But for now it is simple multiplication. Well, I mean they already did. You just have to think there is statistical dependence across the matches.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 12, 2018 20:47:26 GMT -5
BYU has an 81% chance of winning the rest of their matches. Texas has a 47% chance. 377 out of 1000 times both finished w/o any more losses. BYU had a better RPI than Texas 186 (49.3%) times. BYU will have the advantage in terms of T25/50 wins - so I can see them being seeded ahead of Texas even if Texas has the better RPI. Texas only has a 47% chance to beat Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas Tech? Only a 64% chance of beating Baylor - and the way Baylor is playing lately this seems about right. 80% chance of beating Texas Tech - the way Texas Tech is playing I think it should be much higher than this. 97% chance of beating West Virginia.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 12, 2018 20:51:14 GMT -5
If a team has an 80% chance to win against Team A, 80% against Team B, and 80% against Team C, then they have a 51% chance to win all three. I hope that some smart mathematician comes along in next decade and figures out some variable to add to change this formula. But for now it is simple multiplication. Well, I mean they already did. You just have to think there is statistical dependence across the matches. Are you related to the mad Emperor Pelagius?
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Post by pelagius on Nov 12, 2018 20:57:27 GMT -5
Well, I mean they already did. You just have to think there is statistical dependence across the matches. Are you related to the mad Emperor Pelagius? Omage to the heretic
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 12, 2018 21:03:15 GMT -5
Are you related to the mad Emperor Pelagius? Omage to the heretic Ah. This Pelagius rather than this Pelagius.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 16, 2018 16:08:16 GMT -5
Things looking really good for UCF. They lead 2-0 over SMU and Cincinnati beat Tulane.
Rice might be in trouble. Rice plays a tough semifinal match against North Texas. North Texas is a much worse RPI matchup than FAU. Rice should be okay if they win this match, but a loss puts them square on the bubble
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 17, 2018 9:33:32 GMT -5
Here is my bracket based on RPI Futures as of this morning.
1. Stanford: Tennessee, Saint Marys, Bryant 16. Florida: UCLA, Duke, College of Charleston 8. Pittsburgh: Michigan, Miami-OH, American 9. Wisconsin: Marquette, Illinois State, Green Bay
4. Illinois: Cincinnati, Louisville, Murray State 13. UCF: Florida State, Arizona, Florida Gulf Coast 5. USC: Cal Poly, Pepperdine, Northern Arizona 12. Penn State: Syracuse, Dayton, Stony Brook
2. BYU: Colorado State, Utah, Howard 15. Washington: Baylor, San Diego, Denver 7. Kentucky: Purdue, East Tennessee State, Alabama A&M 10. Nebraska: Missouri, Kansas State, High Point
3. Minnesota: Northern Iowa, Colorado, Iona 14. Creighton: Oregon, Kansas, Stephen F. Austin 6. Texas: Texas State, Rice, UT Rio Grande Valley 11. Washington State: South Carolina, Hawaii, Yale
Last 4 In: Colorado, Hawaii, Arizona, Kansas State First 4 Out: LMU, Notre Dame, James Madison, Princeton
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 17, 2018 11:52:31 GMT -5
BYU has an 81% chance of winning the rest of their matches. Texas has a 47% chance. 377 out of 1000 times both finished w/o any more losses. BYU had a better RPI than Texas 186 (49.3%) times. BYU will have the advantage in terms of T25/50 wins - so I can see them being seeded ahead of Texas even if Texas has the better RPI. Revisiting this. Current RPI has Texas #4 and BYU #5. It also has Minnesota #2. I will start with it is pretty unlikely that Minnesota can hold #2. Their last three games include Rutgers and Ohio State which will certainly hurt the RPI. But what about BYU and Texas - who is likely to have the better RPI if both win out? Texas has 2 remaining matches (West Virginia and Texas Tech) with a projected adjusted w/l% of .503. BYU has 2 remaining matches (Pacific & LMU) with a projected w/l% of .611. BYU is going to pick up some ground in #2 component of RPI. When plugging in wins for Texas and BYU - I end up with an RPI Futures of BYU .7062 and Texas .7049. this is close enough that some small changes in how matches play out can impact. Plus - this is the difference between 1 spot in bonus points. Here are some bonus points that could be in play: Texas: Oregon is currently #25 in unadjusted - dropping to 26 would cost Texas .0013 from the RPI Futures. Kansas State is #53 - if they can get to #50 or better than Texas would pick up .0026. Texas State is #23 and unlikely to drop below the T25. BYU: Duke (42), Saint Marys (44), & San Diego (45) are all within the unadjusted T50, but if they drop below 50 than BYU will lose .0026. If Utah (47) drops below T50 then BYU would lose .0013. The potential gain is with LMU (54) who would add .0026 if they can get inside the T50. I think there is more risk with BYU on bonus points - but if the current bonus points hold, I think BYU will end up with the better RPI than Texas. I don't think it will matter in terms of seeding - BYU has the much better resume in terms of T25/50 wins (although this may be dependent on San Diego, Saint Marys, Pepperdine, Duke staying in the T50.
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Post by TuesdayGone on Nov 17, 2018 12:41:39 GMT -5
Here is my bracket based on RPI Futures as of this morning. 1. Stanford: Tennessee, Saint Marys, Bryant 16. Florida: UCLA, Duke, College of Charleston 8. Pittsburgh: Michigan, Miami-OH, American 9. Wisconsin: Marquette, Illinois State, Green Bay 4. Illinois: Cincinnati, Louisville, Murray State 13. UCF: Florida State, Arizona, Florida Gulf Coast 5. USC: Cal Poly, Pepperdine, Northern Arizona 12. Penn State: Syracuse, Dayton, Stony Brook 2. BYU: Colorado State, Utah, Howard 15. Washington: Baylor, San Diego, Denver 7. Kentucky: Purdue, East Tennessee State, Alabama A&M 10. Nebraska: Missouri, Kansas State, High Point 3. Minnesota: Northern Iowa, Colorado, Iona 14. Creighton: Oregon, Kansas, Stephen F. Austin 6. Texas: Texas State, Rice, UT Rio Grande Valley 11. Washington State: South Carolina, Hawaii, Yale Last 4 In: Colorado, Hawaii, Arizona, Kansas State First 4 Out: LMU, Notre Dame, James Madison, Princeton How about not screwing Wisconsin over for the 5th time in 6 years by placing them in the best teams regional. That would be 3 years in a row in Stanford’s regional And before that 2 with Penn State national championship years In 3 of those years Wisconsin gave the eventual national champion the closest match they played on way to championship.
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Post by bkedane on Nov 17, 2018 13:14:39 GMT -5
Here is my bracket based on RPI Futures as of this morning. 1. Stanford: Tennessee, Saint Marys, Bryant 16. Florida: UCLA, Duke, College of Charleston 8. Pittsburgh: Michigan, Miami-OH, American 9. Wisconsin: Marquette, Illinois State, Green Bay 4. Illinois: Cincinnati, Louisville, Murray State 13. UCF: Florida State, Arizona, Florida Gulf Coast 5. USC: Cal Poly, Pepperdine, Northern Arizona 12. Penn State: Syracuse, Dayton, Stony Brook 2. BYU: Colorado State, Utah, Howard 15. Washington: Baylor, San Diego, Denver 7. Kentucky: Purdue, East Tennessee State, Alabama A&M 10. Nebraska: Missouri, Kansas State, High Point 3. Minnesota: Northern Iowa, Colorado, Iona 14. Creighton: Oregon, Kansas, Stephen F. Austin 6. Texas: Texas State, Rice, UT Rio Grande Valley 11. Washington State: South Carolina, Hawaii, Yale Last 4 In: Colorado, Hawaii, Arizona, Kansas State First 4 Out: LMU, Notre Dame, James Madison, Princeton How about not screwing Wisconsin over for the 5th time in 6 years by placing them in the best teams regional. That would be 3 years in a row in Stanford’s regional And before that 2 with Penn State national championship years In 3 of those years Wisconsin gave the eventual national champion the closest match they played on way to championship. You realize that bluepenguin does not set the actual brackets right?
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Post by spikerthemovie on Nov 17, 2018 13:14:52 GMT -5
Here is my bracket based on RPI Futures as of this morning. 1. Stanford: Tennessee, Saint Marys, Bryant 16. Florida: UCLA, Duke, College of Charleston 8. Pittsburgh: Michigan, Miami-OH, American 9. Wisconsin: Marquette, Illinois State, Green Bay 4. Illinois: Cincinnati, Louisville, Murray State 13. UCF: Florida State, Arizona, Florida Gulf Coast 5. USC: Cal Poly, Pepperdine, Northern Arizona 12. Penn State: Syracuse, Dayton, Stony Brook 2. BYU: Colorado State, Utah, Howard 15. Washington: Baylor, San Diego, Denver 7. Kentucky: Purdue, East Tennessee State, Alabama A&M 10. Nebraska: Missouri, Kansas State, High Point 3. Minnesota: Northern Iowa, Colorado, Iona 14. Creighton: Oregon, Kansas, Stephen F. Austin 6. Texas: Texas State, Rice, UT Rio Grande Valley 11. Washington State: South Carolina, Hawaii, Yale Last 4 In: Colorado, Hawaii, Arizona, Kansas State First 4 Out: LMU, Notre Dame, James Madison, Princeton How about not screwing Wisconsin over for the 5th time in 6 years by placing them in the best teams regional. That would be 3 years in a row in Stanford’s regional And before that 2 with Penn State national championship years In 3 of those years Wisconsin gave the eventual national champion the closest match they played on way to championship. How about not losing to Iowa? (I'm a Badger fan and I'm bummed about their banged-upness, but they are the ones who shot themselves in the foot.)
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 17, 2018 13:33:39 GMT -5
bluepenquinWhat is the likeliness that Princeton finishes ahead of Hawaii in RPI?
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Post by horns1 on Nov 17, 2018 14:22:31 GMT -5
I will be shocked if USC is any higher than the #6 seed. Their 8-9 losses are going to be many more than other teams competing for the #5-10 seeds. Probably end up as #7, IMO.
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Post by jayj79 on Nov 17, 2018 15:28:46 GMT -5
Kind of curious how big a hit UNI's RPI took after their loss last night. Though I suppose it doesn't really matter, since it sounds like it is enough to knock them out of any seed contention, but not enough to knock them out of at-large contention yet. My guess it puts them into the mid 20s or so.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 17, 2018 16:09:58 GMT -5
bluepenquin What is the likeliness that Princeton finishes ahead of Hawaii in RPI? Not good. Princeton is likely to lose some ground this next week with their OOC opponents losing. Pablo projects them with a .341 w/l% the rest of the season. Hawaii's are projected for a .606 with the conference opponents going .500. This should be enough for Hawaii to pass Princeton.
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