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Post by JB Southpaw on Jul 15, 2019 10:13:54 GMT -5
Hey, tamz, you and ajm, did I call it?? No reason for A team to play Esphino, no more room for trophies!! Yes you did!! Waiting for FIVB to update the points today or tomorrow! They must be mentally exhausted after these three weeks in Hamburg and Gstaad. They deserve some much needed rest and recovery. Tokyo up next week! Hope they’ll be fresh and hungry for more next week. I started doing the points, had the men's finished, THEN realized they weren't updated!! Yeah, well deserved break! Teams do have to pace themselves, no reason to crash in 2019, well before Olympics. It's kind of terrible scheduling by FIVB (not surprised) by going WC, 5,4*.
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Post by tamz on Jul 15, 2019 10:21:56 GMT -5
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Post by bvbllr on Jul 15, 2019 11:05:47 GMT -5
Not sure how easy this is and how motivated you are for making updates to the table - but would it be possible to show the worst finish of each team too? I think this will become interesting as teams complete 12 tournaments and can only improve by doing better than their #12 result.
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Post by tamz on Jul 15, 2019 11:20:43 GMT -5
ATeam is now #1 in entry rankings and world rankings! 🥳🥳
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Post by beachbomb on Jul 15, 2019 11:24:31 GMT -5
at this point if Kerri Walsh and Sarah Sponcil were to team up they'd be number two in entry points and in the hunt for the Olympics... but question is... at this point in Sarahs career... is she better than Brooke?
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Post by tamz on Jul 15, 2019 12:01:57 GMT -5
So Kerri and Brooke would have reached the 12 tournaments by the end of this week. ATeam needs 3 more.
For Brazil, Ana Patricia and Rebecca will have met 12 by the end of this week as well.
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Post by keeweekid on Jul 15, 2019 12:20:39 GMT -5
Not sure how easy this is and how motivated you are for making updates to the table - but would it be possible to show the worst finish of each team too? I think this will become interesting as teams complete 12 tournaments and can only improve by doing better than their #12 result. Here are each of the 3 teams (KWJ/Brooke, 2S, Claes/Sponcil), Top 8 point finishes for this Olympic Qualification period. Figured I would choose Top 8 points as there is a good chance these top 8 finishes will be part of their overall Top 12...or at least top 6 points as of now. Anyhow... KWJ/Brooke 2S Claes/Sponcil1) 800 960 800
2) 720 640 720 3) 640 560 480 4) 560 400 480 5) 540 400 480 6) 480 400 400 7) 480 400 400 8) 480 320 240
If you assume Top 5 points will be part of a team's Top 12 points: 1) KWJ/Brooke- 3160 Points 2) 2S- 2960 Points 3) Claes/Sponcil- 2880 Points
If you assume current Top 7 finishes will be part of team's Top 12 points: 1) KWJ/Brooke- 4120 points 2) 2S- 3760 points 3) Claes/Sponcil- 3680 points.
IF assuming their current Top 7 finishes will be somehow part of their overall Top 12 points. *2S would need to beat KWJ/Brooke by 72 points per each of their next 5 highest point events to overtake *Claes/Sponcil would need to beat KWJ/Brooke by 88 points per each of their next 5 highest point events to overtake.
The BIG thing that will hurt 2S & Claes/Sponcil is that they will most likely be in CQ or Q's for remainder of the time unless 2A take tournaments off (which is a realistic possibility).
2S missing 5* Gstaad was huge and if one/both miss Vienna and KWJ/Brooke come in with another good finish, continues to put more pressure on trailing teams.
The other concern is that IF you assume the Top 7 point finishes will hold for their final Top 12 point finishes, 2S & Claes/Sponcil would need to avg. ~72-88 points/event finish better than KWJ/Brooke. If you look at their current point finishes, 2S has only once in their Top 8 point finishes, exceeded KWJ/Brooke. Sponcil/Claes, comparing Top 8 finishes, do not have any point finish that is greater than KWJ/Brooke. So to assume that they will now somehow do this over 5 finishes is...iffy. Further, 2S has only 3 finishes above 400 points. Hard to catch anyone when 5/8 finishes are 400 points or less. If it wasn't for their Hamburg finish, they would probably realistically be out.
Basically, it seems if KWJ/Brooke can keep auto-entry into tournaments, force other teams into the CQ, this should eventually by summer's end come close to eliminating one of these teams as not enough BIG point tournaments to make a dent...without knowing 2020 schedule. I would almost guess that if neither 2S or Sponcil/Claes make Vienna or do much in Vienna, they are out barring an injury to top team. Only catch is the World Tour final in Rome, not sure how that counts for points.
By no means over, but 2S and Claes/Sponcil need to consistently have 5-7 Top 5 finishes in 4* or higher, something than neither team has shown they can do even more than a few times.
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Post by tamz on Jul 15, 2019 12:29:43 GMT -5
keeweekidSlaes is in the MD for Vienna. Stockman/Larsen moved down to CQ for that. World Tour Finals in Rome is a 5* event, just not run by Major Series.
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Post by keeweekid on Jul 15, 2019 13:01:43 GMT -5
keeweekid Slaes is in the MD for Vienna. Stockman/Larsen moved down to CQ for that. World Tour Finals in Rome is a 5* event, just not run by Major Series. What is the qualification for Rome, same as everything else or something different? As in, if 2A and KWJ/Brooke play, can others get in through CQ or Q or is it the Top 32 teams regardless of country or is there a country quota....? Thanks.
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Post by dunninla3 on Jul 15, 2019 13:02:19 GMT -5
KWJ/BS will absolutely be the #2 USA team barring injury. KWJ is just so far above every other USA big except for Klineman than even if Brooke continues to suck, she will carry them across the line. Chances of injury are... IDK, maybe 33%?
2S and Slaes' objective at this point is to win #3 slot in case KWJ/BS drop due to injury. But if the injury is late Spring 2020, neither 2S nor Slaes will likely be able to surpass KWJ, and the Injured Athlete provision in FIVB rules will obtain. If it is Brooke that injures, KWJ could than pick any other athlete that has played a minimum 12 FIVB events (not just World Tour) in the qualification period.
At that point KWJ could pick Hughes, Sponcil, Stockman, etc. as none will have qualified for Tokyo on their own.
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Post by tamz on Jul 15, 2019 13:07:50 GMT -5
keeweekid Slaes is in the MD for Vienna. Stockman/Larsen moved down to CQ for that. World Tour Finals in Rome is a 5* event, just not run by Major Series. What is the qualification for Rome, same as everything else or something different? As in, if 2A and KWJ/Brooke play, can others get in through CQ or Q or is it the Top 32 teams regardless of country or is there a country quota....? Thanks. Should be the same as a 5*. Auto 24 MD entries. 8 teams from the 32 in qualifiers also in MD. There will definitely be CQ. It’s the last 5* event of the season.
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Post by ajm on Jul 15, 2019 13:26:13 GMT -5
Not sure how easy this is and how motivated you are for making updates to the table - but would it be possible to show the worst finish of each team too? I think this will become interesting as teams complete 12 tournaments and can only improve by doing better than their #12 result. Here are each of the 3 teams (KWJ/Brooke, 2S, Claes/Sponcil), Top 8 point finishes for this Olympic Qualification period. Figured I would choose Top 8 points as there is a good chance these top 8 finishes will be part of their overall Top 12...or at least top 6 points as of now. Anyhow... KWJ/Brooke 2S Claes/Sponcil1) 800 960 800
2) 720 640 720 3) 640 560 480 4) 560 400 480 5) 540 400 480 6) 480 400 400 7) 480 400 400 8) 480 320 240
If you assume Top 5 points will be part of a team's Top 12 points: 1) KWJ/Brooke- 3160 Points 2) 2S- 2960 Points 3) Claes/Sponcil- 2880 Points
If you assume current Top 7 finishes will be part of team's Top 12 points: 1) KWJ/Brooke- 4120 points 2) 2S- 3760 points 3) Claes/Sponcil- 3680 points.
IF assuming their current Top 7 finishes will be somehow part of their overall Top 12 points. *2S would need to beat KWJ/Brooke by 72 points per each of their next 5 highest point events to overtake *Claes/Sponcil would need to beat KWJ/Brooke by 88 points per each of their next 5 highest point events to overtake.
The BIG thing that will hurt 2S & Claes/Sponcil is that they will most likely be in CQ or Q's for remainder of the time unless 2A take tournaments off (which is a realistic possibility).
2S missing 5* Gstaad was huge and if one/both miss Vienna and KWJ/Brooke come in with another good finish, continues to put more pressure on trailing teams.
The other concern is that IF you assume the Top 7 point finishes will hold for their final Top 12 point finishes, 2S & Claes/Sponcil would need to avg. ~72-88 points/event finish better than KWJ/Brooke. If you look at their current point finishes, 2S has only once in their Top 8 point finishes, exceeded KWJ/Brooke. Sponcil/Claes, comparing Top 8 finishes, do not have any point finish that is greater than KWJ/Brooke. So to assume that they will now somehow do this over 5 finishes is...iffy. Further, 2S has only 3 finishes above 400 points. Hard to catch anyone when 5/8 finishes are 400 points or less. If it wasn't for their Hamburg finish, they would probably realistically be out.
Basically, it seems if KWJ/Brooke can keep auto-entry into tournaments, force other teams into the CQ, this should eventually by summer's end come close to eliminating one of these teams as not enough BIG point tournaments to make a dent...without knowing 2020 schedule. I would almost guess that if neither 2S or Sponcil/Claes make Vienna or do much in Vienna, they are out barring an injury to top team. Only catch is the World Tour final in Rome, not sure how that counts for points.
By no means over, but 2S and Claes/Sponcil need to consistently have 5-7 Top 5 finishes in 4* or higher, something than neither team has shown they can do even more than a few times.
And for a frame of reference, each higher placement at a 4 Star is worth 80 points. So these teams need to finish higher than Kerri/Brooke at every single event from here on out and/or have a great finish at Vienna or WTF.
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Post by tamz on Jul 15, 2019 17:16:57 GMT -5
This weekend we learned three things: 1. Hate to put it, but Day/Flint are out of this Olympics race. They should skip Tokyo 4* next week and play Hermosa Beach instead. 2. The three teams who will continue battling in CQ are: Stocsen, Slaes, and 2S. At the moment it’s hard to tell who has a greater chance as they aren’t that consistent. A few weeks ago, it looked like Stocsen was on fire and could perhaps make a good run at Hamburg but that wasn’t the case. Slaes has consistent 9th place finishes, but I doubt that will get that the second spot. 3. KWJ/BS surely look like they have the second spot right now. That win in Xiamen really helped them a lot.
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Post by goldengirlsx3 on Jul 15, 2019 17:22:27 GMT -5
This weekend we learned three things: 1. Hate to put it, but Day/Flint are out of this Olympics race. They should skip Tokyo 4* next week and play Hermosa Beach instead. 2. The three teams who will continue battling in CQ are: Stocsen, Slaes, and 2S. At the moment it’s hard to tell who has a greater chance as they aren’t that consistent. A few weeks ago, it looked like Stocsen was on fire and could perhaps make a good run at Hamburg but that wasn’t the case. Slaes has consistent 9th place finishes, but I doubt that will get that the second spot. 3. KWJ/BS surely look like they have the second spot right now. That win in Xiamen really helped them a lot. 2S are ahead of Kerri & Brooke in the world rankings. Doesn’t look like Kerri & Brooke have it right now. Unless I’m missing something.
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Post by tamz on Jul 15, 2019 17:27:28 GMT -5
This weekend we learned three things: 1. Hate to put it, but Day/Flint are out of this Olympics race. They should skip Tokyo 4* next week and play Hermosa Beach instead. 2. The three teams who will continue battling in CQ are: Stocsen, Slaes, and 2S. At the moment it’s hard to tell who has a greater chance as they aren’t that consistent. A few weeks ago, it looked like Stocsen was on fire and could perhaps make a good run at Hamburg but that wasn’t the case. Slaes has consistent 9th place finishes, but I doubt that will get that the second spot. 3. KWJ/BS surely look like they have the second spot right now. That win in Xiamen really helped them a lot. 2S are ahead of Kerri & Brooke in the world rankings. Doesn’t look like Kerri & Brooke have it right now. Unless I’m missing something. The World Rankings are not the same as the Olympics ranking points. Here’s the link for Olympics ranking points: www.fivb.org/EN/BeachVolleyball/OGRanking_W.aspThe World Rankings are the best 8 finishes played in the last 365 days. The World Rankings were only used for World Tour Finals, as far as I know. The top 8 or 10 teams would play in WTF but since this year’s is treated like a traditional 5* event, entry points should be used instead. The Olympic Rankings are 12 best finishes as a team since the start of the Olympics qualification period (last September) but since many teams have yet to reach 12 events, it’s basically the sum of all their finishes since September 2018.
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