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Post by naujack85 on Jan 15, 2019 18:02:43 GMT -5
Yes, the Olympics is pretty brutal for these thing Here is that 2004 semifinal between Brazil and Russia. Jump to the 1:40:07 mark, the Brazilians were jumping and celebrating at 24-19, they had 5 match points, surely they must have thought, the game was theirs, well..... They even had another match point at 14-13 in the fifth, only to lose the next 3 points. Devastating.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2019 18:14:27 GMT -5
I can remember rooting for Brazil so hard in this match :S
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Post by ironhammer on Jan 15, 2019 20:27:21 GMT -5
I can remember rooting for Brazil so hard in this match :S The female Brazilian commentator even exclaimed: "Oh my god" at one point, the match was too much even for her. (Youtube has blocked it from direct viewing here, so you have to go to youtube directly to view the match above.) Here is just the part where Brazil choked against Russia in the 4th. Mari's errors cost Brazil dearly (p.s-yikes, IOC demanded that you can only see even that clip from youtube only): But don't feel too badly for Brazil, they did went on to win two consecutive Olympic Golds, so they did learnt lessons from this devastating loss.
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Post by stevehorn on Jan 15, 2019 22:26:00 GMT -5
This happens a lot more than you think, OP, in volleyball at all levels, college, pro and international. As they say, it ain't over until the fat lady sings. If it happens a lot more than we think, then it doesn't match that basketball game. Oregon's win probability was at 99.8% in that basketball game. What we're looking for are the situations that are similar to that, where a team only comes back 1 in 500 times. Actually 1 in 500 means it's not that rare given the thousands of basketball games at those levels each season. Hard to compare the two sports for comebacks since volleyball has no clock and plays to a point total and match is played in a series of individual sets with each starting at 0-0 (no cumulative point total for the match). Also match must be tied in games before you can play a winner takes all deciding set. You can't have a scenario where a team can be behind for the entire match and then win it at the end.
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Post by n00b on Jan 15, 2019 22:42:15 GMT -5
If it happens a lot more than we think, then it doesn't match that basketball game. Oregon's win probability was at 99.8% in that basketball game. What we're looking for are the situations that are similar to that, where a team only comes back 1 in 500 times. Actually 1 in 500 means it's not that rare given the thousands of basketball games at those levels each season. Hard to compare the two sports for comebacks since volleyball has no clock and plays to a point total and match is played in a series of individual sets with each starting at 0-0 (no cumulative point total for the match). Also match must be tied in games before you can play a winner takes all deciding set. You can't have a scenario where a team can be behind for the entire match and then win it at the end.
1 in 500 of that exact scenario. That exact scenario doesn't happen frequently. Last season, there were three basketball games all season with a 0.2% (or worse) comeback win. Basketball teams play about 30 games a year with about 350 teams gets you to about 5,300 games. So it is a pretty rare thing, but does happen a few times per year. If somebody ran the numbers, volleyball would actually be easier to do in-game win probabilities based on set and match score, pablo, and who the serving team is. You're right that it would be tough to be that long of shot at the end of a match (although I think my previous example of #4 USC blowing a 14-8 lead to Wash St would qualify). However, there could also be massive underdog comeback wins where a team's minimum win probability is mid 3rd set while down 2-0.
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Post by kokyu on Jan 16, 2019 3:07:00 GMT -5
And specifically volleyball, Brazil suffered a heart-breaking loss in the 2012 Men Final, Brazil was leading 2-0 and leading 22-19 when they retired Giba in the third set. Big mistake. Russia turned around and beat them for gold 3-2. Of course, if you are a Russian fan, then it would have been an comeback for the record books (well, maybe not literally, but figuratively). Why did the coach take Giba out? A three-point lead in the gold medal match is not the time to sub out your starters... Giba only came in at the end of third set after Brazil already thought they would win as a token to end his career. Dante was playing well and in hindsight Giba shouldn't have come in at all.
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Post by stevehorn on Jan 16, 2019 9:01:28 GMT -5
Actually 1 in 500 means it's not that rare given the thousands of basketball games at those levels each season. Hard to compare the two sports for comebacks since volleyball has no clock and plays to a point total and match is played in a series of individual sets with each starting at 0-0 (no cumulative point total for the match). Also match must be tied in games before you can play a winner takes all deciding set. You can't have a scenario where a team can be behind for the entire match and then win it at the end.
1 in 500 of that exact scenario. That exact scenario doesn't happen frequently. Last season, there were three basketball games all season with a 0.2% (or worse) comeback win. Basketball teams play about 30 games a year with about 350 teams gets you to about 5,300 games. So it is a pretty rare thing, but does happen a few times per year. If somebody ran the numbers, volleyball would actually be easier to do in-game win probabilities based on set and match score, pablo, and who the serving team is. You're right that it would be tough to be that long of shot at the end of a match (although I think my previous example of #4 USC blowing a 14-8 lead to Wash St would qualify). However, there could also be massive underdog comeback wins where a team's minimum win probability is mid 3rd set while down 2-0.
Really my point is that you had two parts of the basketball comeback. One was a 17 point comeback with a decent amount of time on the clock, and the other was being down 9 with under a minute left. Just hard to create a volleyball scenario with both parts of the comeback though I'm sure you can create volleyball comebacks with similar odds.
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