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Post by n00b on Oct 18, 2019 8:17:47 GMT -5
It’s going to create some interesting challenges and opportunities if Baylor, Texas, and Rice all host a sub regional (and they will). If A&M also does (longshot) there’s going to be lots of fly-ins. That creates some unique opportunity for the committee to (functionally) seed the first two rounds more than usual. If we assume Baylor, Texas, and Rice as locks and no to Texas A&M. Here are the drive-in potentials: Lock to get a bid: Texas A&M and Stephen F. Austin Potential: 1) Texas State: Texas State and Coastal Carolina are neck and neck to win the Sun Belt. The loser has a decent chance to get an at-large. 2) SWAC Winner: Prairie View A&M is probably favored to win the SWAC right now, but there are at least 4 teams that are pretty similar for winning the tournament and getting the automatic. Texas Southern could also win - I would say that Prairie winning the SWAC tournament is somewhere in the 30-35% range. 3) Southland Auto: Stephen F. Austin will win the conference, but it is possible they lose in the tournament. If they do get upset, it is likely to come from either Houston Baptist or Sam Houston and this would get two Texas schools from the conference in the tournament. 4) SMU: They are on the bubble, probably on the outside right now, but with some work they can get themselves into the tournament. 5) UTSA: Would need a lot more work to get an at-large, but it is still possible for them. Beating both Rice and Western Kentucky in the conference tournament seems like a pretty unlikely outcome. Probably looking at 2 to 5 drive-ins for those top 3 Texas schools out of 9 slots. There will be some fly-ins and possibly a lot. These Texas schools hosting is coming mostly at the expense of west coast schools, right? It’s almost certainly still fewer flights than if multiple So Cal schools hosted (depending on how many WCC teams get in).
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Post by dunninla3 on Oct 18, 2019 10:47:39 GMT -5
^ the Committee, in Softball anyway, doesn't take geography into account with the top 16 seeds.
Let's say we have
Creighton RPI 17, much lower total Regional travel cost if they host Baylor RPI 16, much higher total Regional travel cost if they host
The Committee won't award seed 16 to Creighton because of lower overall travel cost.
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 18, 2019 10:51:58 GMT -5
^ the Committee, in Softball anyway, doesn't take geography into account with the top 16 seeds. They don't consider, for example, that Creighton seeded 16 would mean less airfair hosting even if they have RPI #17, with BYU at RPI #16, and therefore award the 16 seed to Creighton over BYU based on lower overall cost. They don't do that. Volleyball also doesn't take geography into account for the top 16 seeds.
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Post by redbeard2008 on Oct 18, 2019 11:27:06 GMT -5
^ the Committee, in Softball anyway, doesn't take geography into account with the top 16 seeds. They don't consider, for example, that Creighton seeded 16 would mean less airfair hosting even if they have RPI #17, with BYU at RPI #16, and therefore award the 16 seed to Creighton over BYU based on lower overall cost. They don't do that. Volleyball also doesn't take geography into account for the top 16 seeds. How many times has Washington been sent to a Nebraska regional, and Nebraska to a Washington regional? Hard to explain that on other than geographic considerations.
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Post by jayj79 on Oct 18, 2019 17:04:07 GMT -5
^ the Committee, in Softball anyway, doesn't take geography into account with the top 16 seeds. They don't consider, for example, that Creighton seeded 16 would mean less airfair hosting even if they have RPI #17, with BYU at RPI #16, and therefore award the 16 seed to Creighton over BYU based on lower overall cost. They don't do that. Volleyball also doesn't take geography into account for the top 16 seeds. I call BS on that. That may be the "official" stance, but since there is no set standards on determining the top 16 seeds, I'm certain that they can bend things a bit to fit their agendas (i.e. reducing travel costs)
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 18, 2019 17:35:56 GMT -5
Rice is playing one of its toughest remaining matches (at Marshall) right now.
Nicole Lennon is a beast. 8 kills, 9 digs in the first set. Tight first set, but Rice closes out set 1 25-22.
Notre Dame dropped the first set at Virginia Tech. Not good. The Hokies haven't won a game in the ACC yet.
Rice ended up sweeping.
Notre Dame was down 17-22 in the 3rd set, but scored 8 straight to win it 25-22. They're tied at 8 in the 4th.
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Post by trojansc on Oct 18, 2019 20:41:38 GMT -5
Tulane just swept Cincinnati! (-23, -22, -22)
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 18, 2019 21:51:57 GMT -5
Volleyball also doesn't take geography into account for the top 16 seeds. I call BS on that. That may be the "official" stance, but since there is no set standards on determining the top 16 seeds, I'm certain that they can bend things a bit to fit their agendas (i.e. reducing travel costs) Since the earned regional host era, I have seen no indication that geography was a factor in determining seeds - but then none of us know the exact ranking of the teams or are in the discussions we couldn't know for certainty. From a practical standpoint - how would this work (the conspiracy theory). The committee is given a directive from the NCAA to create the minimum number of travel (fly-ins), but doesn't give this direct public directive when determining seeds. Either the NCAA is giving the committee a directive in private that contradicts what is said in public or the committee members take it up themselves to go an extra step to reduce travel. I cannot imagine the 2nd one happening - why would the committee members care about reducing NCAA costs if not specifically instructed? And why would the NCAA lie in the public when that lie could so easily be exposed? I am not buying the conspiracy.
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Post by eastcoastopp on Oct 18, 2019 22:14:52 GMT -5
Tulane just swept Cincinnati! (-23, -22, -22) I thought they were solid but I didn’t see a sweep coming.
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 19, 2019 8:06:53 GMT -5
How does the Ivy break their ties for auto-bid? I think it is a playoff game(s). There could end up being a 3 way tie.
Right now it is:
Cornell 6-0 Yale 5-1 Princeton 5-1
Cornell has already won at Princeton and has a home game left with them and a Home and Home with Yale. Yale lost at home to Princeton and have them on the road plus the Home and Home with Cornell Princeton has both Cornell and Yale on the road having split with them at home.
Pablo thinks Yale and Princeton are slightly better than Cornell. Preseason had Princeton as the best team based on last year and their team returning this year, but for some reason had a 'disastrous' first week of the season that either foretold they are not as good as last year or that something weird happened and Pablo is getting fooled. Cornell has the remaining schedule advantage and the 1 game in hand lead.
Yale hosts Cornell today in what may be a critical match. Here are current projected conference wins per Pablo:
Cornell - 11.27 Yale - 11.19 Princeton - 11.04
Still a good chance for a tie.
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 19, 2019 8:24:48 GMT -5
Northern Kentucky is now 3-4 in the Horizon and their chances of an at-large bid has taken a major hit. Here is the current RPI Futures rank for the Horizon:
51. Wright State 53. Northern Kentucky 55. Milwaukee 58. Green Bay
Milwaukee currently leads the conference with a 6-1 record followed by Green Bay and Wright State at 5-2. Pablo likes Wright State as the best team, but Milwaukee's current lead gives the advantage (per Pablo) to win the regular season conference. Northern Kentucky still has Wright State, Milwaukee, and Green Bay at home. Milwaukee has 6 of their remining 9 matches at home, but still has to play Wright State twice and travel to Northern Kentucky. Green Bay's schedule puts them in a bit of bind - so the likely regular season champ will be either Wright State or Milwaukee. And the tournament will be wide open for all 4 teams. Preseason poll had Green Bay as the favorite followed by Northern Kentucky.
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Post by trojansc on Oct 19, 2019 10:59:16 GMT -5
bluepenquinI remember the Ivy League hosting a playoff when teams were tied. Even if one team was 2-0 vs. the other, but I could be wrong. I noticed that too on Northern Kentucky. Still an excellent S.O.S but it probably won’t be enough now. What do you think is going to happen with the AAC? There’s a clear separation of the Top 6 teams (Cincy, UCF, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Houston). All 6 are clear favorites as of now to make the AAC Tournament. Houston has the best AAC record (7-0) of those but ironically also the worst RPI. RPI Futures keeps predicting Houston’s run to end, but they keep winning (mostly in 5 sets).. Now that Tulane beat Cincinnati, it gives them a better chance of maxing out T50 RPI teams. If Tulsa beats UCF Sunday, it really makes things interesting. How many AAC teams can you see finishing T50? Could UCF or Cincinnati be in jeopardy of missing the tournament if they falter too much?
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Post by macroman on Oct 19, 2019 10:59:17 GMT -5
Northern Kentucky is now 3-4 in the Horizon and their chances of an at-large bid has taken a major hit. Here is the current RPI Futures rank for the Horizon: 51. Wright State 53. Northern Kentucky 55. Milwaukee 58. Green Bay Milwaukee currently leads the conference with a 6-1 record followed by Green Bay and Wright State at 5-2. Pablo likes Wright State as the best team, but Milwaukee's current lead gives the advantage (per Pablo) to win the regular season conference. Northern Kentucky still has Wright State, Milwaukee, and Green Bay at home. Milwaukee has 6 of their remining 9 matches at home, but still has to play Wright State twice and travel to Northern Kentucky. Green Bay's schedule puts them in a bit of bind - so the likely regular season champ will be either Wright State or Milwaukee. And the tournament will be wide open for all 4 teams. Preseason poll had Green Bay as the favorite followed by Northern Kentucky. Do any of these teams have power conference opponents left on the schedule? It's hard to see any of these teams moving into at-large territory playing each other.
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Post by cbeach2911 on Oct 19, 2019 11:41:02 GMT -5
I don't even agree with who you think is good. There are so many over inflated teams atm. Parity has caused chaos in predictability, and as such bad measuring of good teams who lost early or bad teams who have a great name recognition & history or bad teams who won early, are causing horrible data in to yield a horrible data out scenario IMHO. Nov5 should hold a much clearer picture. We should caution ourselves on making too much hay out of a single game, also to not ignore history. Clearly you are new. Trojan is such a genius at this it's like he's actually on the committee. If Trojan were on the committee, they might get it right.
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Post by hammer on Oct 19, 2019 13:21:18 GMT -5
I love bracketology!
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