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Post by guest2 on May 1, 2024 15:42:50 GMT -5
The thinking back then was that Taylor was the force behind that team's success, but in retrospect, I think it was Jake more than him. I also think we forget that Jake/Taylor were not a very good team. They were basically Treo in terms of results, maybe more 9ths in full fields, but they were probably somewhere between 11-20 in the world for most of their partnership Would you say Olympic points rankings are a fair judgement? If memory serves they were 7th-9th roughly in qualification points at the time. No, I think Olympic ranking points are a giant pile of garbage. That team never made a final in an event where the good teams showed up. The FIVB tends to reward the kind of finishes Jake/Taylor had. Consistent 9th places, beating the scrubs getting worked by all the top teams. For me, I'll take a 1st and three 41sts over four 9ths. Without looking back at all the teams, the teams I would cite here are the Grimalts and Spain. Both teams won full fields during the 4 years leading up to the Olympics. Both were seeded well below Jake/Taylor in Tokyo (and I think a couple other teams with full field wins also).
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Post by stephenasinjin on May 1, 2024 19:00:08 GMT -5
Would you say Olympic points rankings are a fair judgement? If memory serves they were 7th-9th roughly in qualification points at the time. No, I think Olympic ranking points are a giant pile of garbage. That team never made a final in an event where the good teams showed up. The FIVB tends to reward the kind of finishes Jake/Taylor had. Consistent 9th places, beating the scrubs getting worked by all the top teams. For me, I'll take a 1st and three 41sts over four 9ths. Without looking back at all the teams, the teams I would cite here are the Grimalts and Spain. Both teams won full fields during the 4 years leading up to the Olympics. Both were seeded well below Jake/Taylor in Tokyo (and I think a couple other teams with full field wins also). This feels like revisionist history. I’m not sure if this stat held through the entire qualification process, but I remember looking at who had beaten Norway at some point around the triple Cancun events and the list of teams was Russia, Wickler/Thole, and maybe 1-2 others. Definitely not either of those 2. While I agree that consistent 9ths isn’t it, both of those teams you mentioned barely qualified. Grimalts I believe got in through the South American continental cup. Spain had a match vs an injury riddled kantor/Losiak where the winner was gonna make it. Currently there’s more teams at the elite top than there were for Tokyo, but let me go ahead and list teams from Tokyo and just how many teams were fighting for 9ths/5ths. Ranking/listing roughly from memory - I kept forgetting/remembering different people so it’s mostly a list. 1. Norway 2. Krasilnikov/Stoya 3. Qatar 4. Alison/Alvaro 5. Brouwer/Meeuwsen 6. Evandro/Bruno 7. Czechs 8. Wickler/Thole 9. Bryl/Fijalek 10. Gibb/Crabb 11. Nicolai/Lupo 12. Semenov/Leshukov 13. Dalhausser/Lucena 14. Bourne/Crabb 15. Gaxiola/Rubio 16. Carambula/Rossi 17. George/Andre 18. Varenhorst/Rapist 19. Latvia1 20. Latvia2 21. Losiak/Kantor 22. Spain 23. Grimalts 24. De Groot/Boerhmans 25. Ahman/Hellvig 26. Norway2 27. Russia3 28. Schacter/Pedlow My point: these 32 team 4 star events were deep af. Consistent 9ths and 5ths is nothing to sneeze at in these events. Time and time again more often than not, Grimalts and Spain found themselves on the outside looking in during this stretch. Grimalts much more than Spain. ***Edit: maybe I looked around Doha 2021? I forget tbh. My memory of “wow they’ve been winning everything and are rarely losing” was strong, exact timing would be either 2020 or early 2021. I think Qatar beat them in the 3rd Cancun final after they won the first 2.
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Post by guest2 on May 2, 2024 2:49:50 GMT -5
No, I think Olympic ranking points are a giant pile of garbage. That team never made a final in an event where the good teams showed up. The FIVB tends to reward the kind of finishes Jake/Taylor had. Consistent 9th places, beating the scrubs getting worked by all the top teams. For me, I'll take a 1st and three 41sts over four 9ths. Without looking back at all the teams, the teams I would cite here are the Grimalts and Spain. Both teams won full fields during the 4 years leading up to the Olympics. Both were seeded well below Jake/Taylor in Tokyo (and I think a couple other teams with full field wins also). This feels like revisionist history. I’m not sure if this stat held through the entire qualification process, but I remember looking at who had beaten Norway at some point around the triple Cancun events and the list of teams was Russia, Wickler/Thole, and maybe 1-2 others. Definitely not either of those 2. While I agree that consistent 9ths isn’t it, both of those teams you mentioned barely qualified. Grimalts I believe got in through the South American continental cup. Spain had a match vs an injury riddled kantor/Losiak where the winner was gonna make it. Currently there’s more teams at the elite top than there were for Tokyo, but let me go ahead and list teams from Tokyo and just how many teams were fighting for 9ths/5ths. Ranking/listing roughly from memory - I kept forgetting/remembering different people so it’s mostly a list. 1. Norway 2. Krasilnikov/Stoya 3. Qatar 4. Alison/Alvaro 5. Brouwer/Meeuwsen 6. Evandro/Bruno 7. Czechs 8. Wickler/Thole 9. Bryl/Fijalek 10. Gibb/Crabb 11. Nicolai/Lupo 12. Semenov/Leshukov 13. Dalhausser/Lucena 14. Bourne/Crabb 15. Gaxiola/Rubio 16. Carambula/Rossi 17. George/Andre 18. Varenhorst/Rapist 19. Latvia1 20. Latvia2 21. Losiak/Kantor 22. Spain 23. Grimalts 24. De Groot/Boerhmans 25. Ahman/Hellvig 26. Norway2 27. Russia3 28. Schacter/Pedlow My point: these 32 team 4 star events were deep af. Consistent 9ths and 5ths is nothing to sneeze at in these events. Time and time again more often than not, Grimalts and Spain found themselves on the outside looking in during this stretch. Grimalts much more than Spain. ***Edit: maybe I looked around Doha 2021? I forget tbh. My memory of “wow they’ve been winning everything and are rarely losing” was strong, exact timing would be either 2020 or early 2021. I think Qatar beat them in the 3rd Cancun final after they won the first 2. I think a lot of it just goes to what your definition of good is. For the period from 2016-2021, there around 20 teams that either 1) Won a full field or 2) Were a real threat to do so. Thats the definition of a good team for me, maybe I'd be even more restrictive than that in defining it. Jake/Taylor played 4 years and never came close to winning a full field. The below teams are ones that meet my criteria in that time frame 1. Norway 2. Krasilnikov/Stoya 3. Qatar 4. Alison/Alvaro 5. Brouwer/Meeuwsen 6. Evandro/Bruno 7. Phil 8. Italy 9. Andre/George (Andre/Evandro and Andre/Alison both also either won or made full field finals) 10. Wickler/Thole 11. Bryl/Fijalek 12. Semenov/Leshukov 13. Latvia1 14. Losiak/Kantor 15. Spain 16. Grimalts 17. Russia3
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Post by acrossthepond on May 2, 2024 9:15:16 GMT -5
To come back to 2024: With the Olympic Rankings pretty much settled from a country perspective (the only cross-country-duel left is Austria vs Chile) I took a look at the CEV qualification for the European spot. There will be a "Nations Cup" final tournament with 12 countries.
Format Each country consists of 2 teams. They will play in a country vs. country format. 4 pools with 3 countries where the top 2 countries of each pool advance, last in pool is eliminated. Afterwards there will be a single elimination bracket with 8 teams (of course also in country vs. country format).
The countries will play each other in the following way: 1st match -> weaker teams of both nations against each other, 2nd match -> stronger teams of each nation against each other, 3rd match (if necessary) -> 1 golden set to 15 points (teams for golden set can consist of 2 of any of the 4 individuals of a nation -> can also be a mixed team)
Where are we? Already qualified for the final (6 nations): LATVIA (host) – AUSTRIA – FRANCE – NORWAY - SWEDEN - SWITZERLAND Nations that are already qualified, but won't be allowed to attend because they will qualify 2 teams via Olympic Ranking (2 nations): ITALY – NETHERLANDS
Beginning from next week there will be 4 more qualification tournaments to fill up the participants to 12 teams (At this stage all teams are allowed to participate except Perusic/Schweiner as World Champions. In the Final tournament, only teams that have not qualified via Olympic Rankings will be allowed to participate -> best of the rest):
▪ Pool A – Lithuania, Hungary, Belgium, Greece, Ukraine, Croatia, Gibraltar -- Ukraine or Lithuania ▪ Pool B - Spain, Denmark, Israel, Czechia, Finland, Bulgaria, Northern Ireland -> Herrera/Gavira will play. Perusic/Schweiner are not allowed as World Champion -- Spain or Czechia(?) ▪ Pool C – Germany, England, Estonia, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Cyprus, Moldova -> Ehlers/Wickler, Pfretschner/Winter, Bellos and Nolvak/Tisaar all playing -- Germany will win this. Estonia vs. England for the runner up ▪ Pool D - Türkiye, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Scotland -> No Losiak/Bryl. Kantor/Zdybek will play with Rudol/Lewaja -- Poland big favorite, with Portugal probably being the runner up
In principal, the idea was that the 4 pool winners will fill up the final to 12 teams, but since 2 teams will not be eligible to enter (but this will only be official at the end of the Olympic qualification process after Ostrava) this means that also 2 runner-ups will advance. This will be decided then by the CEV Nations ranking (https://www.fivb.org/CEV-country-ranking.html). Czechia is listed there as #5 which would definitely get them in if they finish as runner up. Behind them the ranking is Lithuania > Ukraine > Portugal > England>Estonia, but this could change until beginning of June. So Czechia + the runner up of Pool A look most likely. Also, if some of the "big dogs" (Poland, Germany, Spain) fall, this could change things.
Who will win it? As for the final (Qualified teams not allowed to participate - including predicted teams via qualification tournaments):
Favorites: - France (probably best 1-2 punch with Krou/Gauthier-Rat + Aye/Aye or Canet/Rotar) - Germany (Pfretschner/Winter on fire)
Have a shot: - Norway (Berntsen/Mol having sneaky good results. Mol/Sunde might win a few "easy" matches to help) - Austria (Seidl/Pristauz on a really bad run - Waller/Ermacora better this season) - Switzerland (2 competitive teams - not sure who will play - Krattiger/Breer? + ?) - Latvia (Who knows what the old boys are up to) - Poland (Kantor/Zdybek might need to win all of their games + golden sets) - Ukraine (Popov/Reznik might need to win all of their games + golden sets)
No chance: - Sweden (no Ahman/Hellvig) - Spain (no Herrera/Gavira) - Czechia (no Perusic/Schweiner) - Lithuania (I don't see it)
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Post by bvblove on May 2, 2024 12:20:55 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, where did you find this info? I thought the runners up that advance to the final were decided by the sum of entry ranking of the 2 teams that make up the country squad… In this case, Czech would not be able to use Perusic/Schweiner to bump up their country ranking…
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Post by acrossthepond on May 3, 2024 2:19:01 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, where did you find this info? I thought the runners up that advance to the final were decided by the sum of entry ranking of the 2 teams that make up the country squad… In this case, Czech would not be able to use Perusic/Schweiner to bump up their country ranking… From here: www.cev.eu/media/fjmfdllc/2023-2024-cev-beach-volley-nations-cup_off-communication-no1-6.pdfIn case one or more spots become available from the National Federations qualified through the 2023 CEV Beach Volley Nations Cup Preliminary Phase tournaments, the spot(s) to the Final will be allocated to the best ranked NF(s) among the runners-up of the 4 tournaments of the Preliminary Phase 2024 as per the CEV Country Ranking as of June 10th, 2024. Should a NF decide not to use their spot, this will be allocated to the next best ranked NF amongst the runners-up of the 2024 Preliminary Phase tournaments, followed by the next best ranked NF(s) amongst those finishing third in the Preliminary Phase 2024. However, the last CEV Country Ranking is from August 2023 - and if I understand it correctly it is the sum of the 4 best athletes according to entry ranking. So that means that my ranking from above is quite old and it is a pretty fluent list. So I have no idea who would lead right now (and I have no motivation to do that list myself)
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Post by bvbllr on May 3, 2024 10:07:45 GMT -5
To come back to 2024: With the Olympic Rankings pretty much settled from a country perspective (the only cross-country-duel left is Austria vs Chile) I took a look at the CEV qualification for the European spot. There will be a "Nations Cup" final tournament with 12 countries. FormatEach country consists of 2 teams. They will play in a country vs. country format. 4 pools with 3 countries where the top 2 countries of each pool advance, last in pool is eliminated. Afterwards there will be a single elimination bracket with 8 teams (of course also in country vs. country format). The countries will play each other in the following way: 1st match -> weaker teams of both nations against each other, 2nd match -> stronger teams of each nation against each other, 3rd match (if necessary) -> 1 golden set to 15 points (teams for golden set can consist of 2 of any of the 4 individuals of a nation -> can also be a mixed team) Where are we?Already qualified for the final (6 nations): LATVIA (host) – AUSTRIA – FRANCE – NORWAY - SWEDEN - SWITZERLAND Nations that are already qualified, but won't be allowed to attend because they will qualify 2 teams via Olympic Ranking (2 nations): ITALY – NETHERLANDS Beginning from next week there will be 4 more qualification tournaments to fill up the participants to 12 teams (At this stage all teams are allowed to participate except Perusic/Schweiner as World Champions. In the Final tournament, only teams that have not qualified via Olympic Rankings will be allowed to participate -> best of the rest): ▪ Pool A – Lithuania, Hungary, Belgium, Greece, Ukraine, Croatia, Gibraltar -- Ukraine or Lithuania ▪ Pool B - Spain, Denmark, Israel, Czechia, Finland, Bulgaria, Northern Ireland -> Herrera/Gavira will play. Perusic/Schweiner are not allowed as World Champion -- Spain or Czechia(?) ▪ Pool C – Germany, England, Estonia, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Cyprus, Moldova -> Ehlers/Wickler, Pfretschner/Winter, Bellos and Nolvak/Tisaar all playing -- Germany will win this. Estonia vs. England for the runner up ▪ Pool D - Türkiye, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Scotland -> No Losiak/Bryl. Kantor/Zdybek will play with Rudol/Lewaja -- Poland big favorite, with Portugal probably being the runner up In principal, the idea was that the 4 pool winners will fill up the final to 12 teams, but since 2 teams will not be eligible to enter (but this will only be official at the end of the Olympic qualification process after Ostrava) this means that also 2 runner-ups will advance. This will be decided then by the CEV Nations ranking (https://www.fivb.org/CEV-country-ranking.html). Czechia is listed there as #5 which would definitely get them in if they finish as runner up. Behind them the ranking is Lithuania > Ukraine > Portugal > England>Estonia, but this could change until beginning of June. So Czechia + the runner up of Pool A look most likely. Also, if some of the "big dogs" (Poland, Germany, Spain) fall, this could change things. Who will win it?As for the final (Qualified teams not allowed to participate - including predicted teams via qualification tournaments): Favorites:
- France (probably best 1-2 punch with Krou/Gauthier-Rat + Aye/Aye or Canet/Rotar) - Germany (Pfretschner/Winter on fire) Have a shot:
- Norway (Berntsen/Mol having sneaky good results. Mol/Sunde might win a few "easy" matches to help) - Austria (Seidl/Pristauz on a really bad run - Waller/Ermacora better this season) - Switzerland (2 competitive teams - not sure who will play - Krattiger/Breer? + ?) - Latvia (Who knows what the old boys are up to) - Poland (Kantor/Zdybek might need to win all of their games + golden sets) - Ukraine (Popov/Reznik might need to win all of their games + golden sets) No chance:
- Sweden (no Ahman/Hellvig) - Spain (no Herrera/Gavira) - Czechia (no Perusic/Schweiner) - Lithuania (I don't see it) I think you can safely include Horst / Horl as a team to represent Austria.
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Post by bvblove on May 3, 2024 13:20:03 GMT -5
Love the variety and quality of European beach volleyball What about Estonia? Or England?
Both teams have recently beaten at least 3/4 of the ones you are considering as ‘having a shot’ and either one could be one of the 2 seconds who qualify for the final via ranking.
Novalk/Tisaar have fallen off the radar recently, and both teams would need to win all the golden sets (their other country teams are very far behind) but we know what they’re capable of. Same as the Bello’s 5th in the European championships last year
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Post by ajm on May 3, 2024 14:02:13 GMT -5
I think you can safely include Horst / Horl as a team to represent Austria. What a rough season for them so far. They just forfeited their last pool play match. A few weeks ago they looked like a good bet to qualify via points, but along the way they are going to get passed up by both Cuba and Chile, both of which beat them in head-to-head matches. Austria would seem to have a pretty strong team for the CEV Nations Cup now.
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Post by acrossthepond on May 6, 2024 4:12:08 GMT -5
I think you can safely include Horst / Horl as a team to represent Austria. Hörl/Horst will only represent Austria if they don't make it via Olympic Rankings. As of now they still have a small lead over the Grimalts.
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Post by acrossthepond on May 6, 2024 4:14:58 GMT -5
Love the variety and quality of European beach volleyball What about Estonia? Or England? Both teams have recently beaten at least 3/4 of the ones you are considering as ‘having a shot’ and either one could be one of the 2 seconds who qualify for the final via ranking. Novalk/Tisaar have fallen off the radar recently, and both teams would need to win all the golden sets (their other country teams are very far behind) but we know what they’re capable of. Same as the Bello’s 5th in the European championships last year I have Spain winning the qualification tournament and then it is a numbers game if the runner up in that group (either Estonia or England) has enough country points to advance as a lucky loser. If the Bellos somehow make it to the final tournament they will have a shot. As for Estonia: they just finished 5th in a national tournament in Austria where all of the top 3 Austrian teams were missing. I don't see them having a shot. But who knows...
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Post by bvbllr on May 6, 2024 5:56:44 GMT -5
I think you can safely include Horst / Horl as a team to represent Austria. Hörl/Horst will only represent Austria if they don't make it via Olympic Rankings. As of now they still have a small lead over the Grimalts. A 9th place Elite finish or a 5th place Challenger finish would give the Grimalts the lead. So looking at the remaining tournaments: Espinho: The Grimalts may not even get into the qualifier so that helps Horst/Horl. Still, given past performances I would be surprised if Horst/Horl will qualify let alone score a 9th that helps increase their point total. So most likely Espinho won't change anything. Stare Jablonki: Grimalts will probably make main draw directly. Field looks better than other Challengers but this is their first chance to win the bid. I give Horst/Horl a 50% chance to qualify. Ostrava: Depends a lot on who will drop out but Grimalts may have a chance for main draw while Horst/Horl again need to play qualification.
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Post by acrossthepond on May 6, 2024 9:25:38 GMT -5
Hörl/Horst will only represent Austria if they don't make it via Olympic Rankings. As of now they still have a small lead over the Grimalts. A 9th place Elite finish or a 5th place Challenger finish would give the Grimalts the lead. So looking at the remaining tournaments: Espinho: The Grimalts may not even get into the qualifier so that helps Horst/Horl. Still, given past performances I would be surprised if Horst/Horl will qualify let alone score a 9th that helps increase their point total. So most likely Espinho won't change anything. Stare Jablonki: Grimalts will probably make main draw directly. Field looks better than other Challengers but this is their first chance to win the bid. I give Horst/Horl a 50% chance to qualify. Ostrava: Depends a lot on who will drop out but Grimalts may have a chance for main draw while Horst/Horl again need to play qualification. Your analysis is right, but as a matter of fact the Grimalts have to deliver. Hörl/Horst "just" have to match the results of the Grimalts. Ostrava: The Grimalts are #17 based on entry points. The top 11 + 1 Wild Card will make it. I don't think that there will be that many dropouts at a European tournament. Hörl/Horst have just enough points to make the qualification. And let's be honest, in a single elimination qualification everything is possible. Stare Jablonki will probably be THE tournament to decide the last spot.
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Post by spideas on May 6, 2024 10:29:06 GMT -5
Thanks to all for a very interesting thread!!! Appreciate all of the research that you do... Always love it on VT when people come with well informed opinions and no ad hominem attacks at other posters!!! Enjoy the day
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Post by dunninla3 on May 6, 2024 11:56:44 GMT -5
Would you say Olympic points rankings are a fair judgement? If memory serves they were 7th-9th roughly in qualification points at the time. No, I think Olympic ranking points are a giant pile of garbage you may have mentioned this before, not sure, but I was checking back to 2012 which team that won the Olympics. Found that for London: GER who won the Men's Gold had not won a 4* or Grand Slam FIVB tournament either in the twp years before London, or after. Imagine your only top field wins were in 2009, none since, then Gold. In the four tournaments month leading up to London, they finished 4th, 17th (losing to Fuerbringer/Lucena), 9th, and 5th.
You and I have also mentioned here the general notion that a high finish at World Championships is more likely to be aberrational to prior finishes than any other tournament format.
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