2024 MAC Predictions

[vbf]

Any idea on how ties are broken for purposes of determining who gets into the tournament and for seeding? I presume head-to-head is first but what happens after that? The MAC website is devoid of any information.

[bprtbone]

Nov 8, 2024 10:49:21 GMT -5 vbf said:

Any idea on how ties are broken for purposes of determining who gets into the tournament and for seeding? I presume head-to-head is first but what happens after that? The MAC website is devoid of any information.

They used to follow the same tiebreaker as basketball, but I'm not certain if they are still doing this:


TIE-BREAKER PROCEDURE
Ties in winning percentage, and thus for tournament, seeding positions shall be broken as follows:

1. Between TWO teams:
A. Head-to-head competition
B. Division Record (10 games)^
C. Winning percentage* vs. ranked conference teams (top to bottom, regardless of division, vs. common opponents regardless of the number of times played)
D. Coin flip

2. For MULTIPLE (3 or more) team ties:
E. Total won-lost record/winning percentage* of games played among the tied teams
F. Two (2)-team tie-breaker procedure goes into effect (refer to A)

[NOTE: Once a three-team tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker will go into effect.]

^ - For the purpose of determining the Division champion. This tiebreaker is ONLY used for seeding purposes if the two teams in question are tied for the Division lead. (Teams will still be considered co-divisional champions)
* - Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where teams do not play each other the same number of times. Therefore, a team that is 1-0 (1.000) would win the tiebreaker over a team that is 1-1 (.500).

[bprtbone]

H/T to cardinalvolleyball for sharing the new MAC tie breaking procedures:

4. Tournament Seeding
Teams will be seeded 1 through 6 based on conference winning percentage
(MAC play only). Ties in the conference standings shall be broken as follows:

Two Team Tiebreaker:
1. Head-to-Head Winning Percentage
2. Head-to-Head Set Winning Percentage (i.e., sets won vs. sets lost) among
the tied teams
3. KPI Conference Rankings (Faktorsports.com)
[Revised 2/15/24; 1/25/17]

Multiple (3 or more) Team Tiebreaker:
1. Total won-lost record of matches played among the tied teams (winning
percentage)
2. Total Set Winning Percentage (i.e., sets won vs. sets lost) among the tied
teams
3. KPI Conference Rankings (Faktorsports.com)

[Note: If a three-team tie is reduced to two teams, the Two Team Tiebreaker
goes into effect.]

* Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where
teams do not play each other the same number of times. Therefore, a team
that is 1-0 (1.000) would win the tiebreaker over a team that is 1-1 (.500).
** If the combined records of each tied team are different, the tiebreak is
complete. Example: If Team A is 2-1, Team B is 1-1 and Team C is 1-2 then
this is the order of the tiebreak.

Once only two teams remain tied, the Two Team Tiebreaker is used.
Example: If Team A is 2-1, Team B is 1-2 and Team C is 1-2 then Team A is
ahead of Teams B and C and Teams B and C revert to the Two Team
Tiebreaker

[vbf]

Thanks! That's a big help. Great work on tracking it down.

So, if I'm looking at this correctly, an Ohio win today over Buffalo along with a Toledo loss at Ball State would give Ohio the head-to=head tiebreaker over Toledo for the final spot even if Toledo sweeps next week against Kent State and Ohio drops both next week against Bowling Green. There's a path for Eastern to still be in the mix but it requires them to win today and then they would likely have to sweep Buffalo at Buffalo next week. A tough task.

[n00b]

Nov 9, 2024 11:30:38 GMT -5 vbf said:

Thanks! That's a big help. Great work on tracking it down.

So, if I'm looking at this correctly, an Ohio win today over Buffalo along with a Toledo loss at Ball State would give Ohio the head-to=head tiebreaker over Toledo for the final spot even if Toledo sweeps next week against Kent State and Ohio drops both next week against Bowling Green. There's a path for Eastern to still be in the mix but it requires them to win today and then they would likely have to sweep Buffalo at Buffalo next week. A tough task.

Toledo owns the head-to-head tie breaker over Ohio.

Toledo beat Ohio 3-1 and lost to Ohio 2-3. So they win on set percentage with a 5-4 set record.

[vbf]

You're right. I read it backwards. So, since even if Toledo loses today, their likely worst record will be 10-8 (apologies to Kent State). Even if Ohio wins today to take them to 10-6, they're going to need to win one next week against BG because they can't advance with eight losses. Ohio probably can't survive a loss today coupled with a Toledo win.

[Bearkitten]

Kitten scored big picking 5 out of 6 MAC matches correctly Friday night and has now picked 38 of the past 44 on the money. Big call last night was Ohio’s 3-1 upset over Buffalo keeping the Bobcats hopes alive for the 6 team MAC tournament. Biggest loss of the night was Akron nearly eliminating Eastern Michigan’s tournament hope upsetting the Eagles 3-1 dropping EMU to 7-8 in MAC play. Ball State put Toledo in extreme danger sweeping the Rockets on Toledo’s home court. The Rockets (8-7) desperately need to defeat Ball State in the rematch today to stay in the tournament hunt.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green, Central Michigan and Western Michigan clinched their MAC tournament births last night and a Ball State win today will clinch a tournament spot for the Cardinals who stand 10-4. Below are Kitten’s picks for Saturday.

Western Michigan over Miami 3-0
Ball State over Toledo 3-1
Central Michigan over Kent State 3-0
Akron over Eastern Michigan 3-2
Ohio over Buffalo 3-2
Bowling Green over Northern Illinois 3-0

[Bearkitten]

Kitten struck Gold hitting on all 6 MAC matches and has now correctly predicted 39 of the last 44 MAC matches. Biggest call was Ohio’s 3-0 upset over Buffalo putting the Bobcats and the Bulls in a tie for 5th heading into the final weekend with records of 10-6. The MAC field is set for all practical purposes. Biggest news is Toledo is not going to make the tournament after heading into a terrible tailspin down the stretch of the season losing 5 straight including being swept by Ball State this weekend. The only thing undecided is the tournament seeding. The 6 teams playing will be Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Ball State, Ohio and Buffalo.

[trojansc]

Why is Toledo not making it?

Bowling Green over Ohio U(x2)
Toledo over Kent State(x2)

The first part is possible. The second part is very likely.

That would = Toledo IN, Ohio U OUT

[trojansc]

Additionally ^ in that scenario, Buffalo would have to beat Eastern Michigan at least once.

If Buffalo, Toledo, and Ohio U end up as a group (3-way tie), it would be Toledo the odd man out.

Ohio U wins tie-breaker with all three.
Buffalo wins tie-breaker with Toledo.

However, in a 2-team tiebreaker, Toledo wins that with Ohio U.

[n00b]

14-2 Bowling Green (clinched)
13-3 Central Michigan (clinched)
12-4 Western Michigan (clinched)
11-4 Ball State (clinched)
10-6 Ohio (@ BG, @ BG)
10-6 Buffalo (clinched) (@ EMU, @ EMU)
8-8 Toledo (@ksu, @ksu)

Ohio and Buffalo just need one win (or one Toledo loss) to clinch.

If Toledo goes 2-0:
- Toledo wins the 2-team tiebreaker against Ohio (5-4 in sets)
- Buffalo wins the 2-team tiebreaker against Toledo (1-0 match record)
- a 3-way tie would result in (5) Ohio (3-1 match record); (6) Buffalo (1-0 vs Toledo)

So Toledo needs:
(a) win both matches
(b) Ohio loses both matches
(c) Buffalo wins at least 1 match

While that seems like a lot, it would mean the favorite winning every match.

[trojansc]

Doesn't that mean Buffalo has clinched too?

[n00b]

Adding to the difficulty for Ohio, Bowling Green has a LOT to play for. The regular season champion gets to host the conference tournament and BG loses the tiebreaker to Central Michigan so they likely need to win both this weekend.

[n00b]

Nov 10, 2024 16:17:33 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Doesn't that mean Buffalo has clinched too?

I believe so.

[Bearkitten]

Kitten apologizes for eliminating Toledo from a potential MAC tournament birth. It is true if the Rockets wins both road matches at Kent State and Bowling Green wins both of their home matches with Ohio Toledo will sneak into the tournament. The other very interesting scenario is if Ohio wins one match against Bowling Green and Central Michigan win both of their matches at Akron, CMU will host the MAC tournament by virtue of their win over Bowling Green earlier in the season. Only one match in the MAC tonight and that is red hot Ball State (11-4) hosting Miami (1-14). Below is Kitten’s prediction for Tuesday’s match.

Ball State over Miami 3-0