Bracketology (11/6)

[trojansc]

Nov 10, 2024 12:26:07 GMT -5 bigtenchamp1997 said:

In my opinion they won’t put two regional final sites just miles away from each other. Lincoln and Omaha are just too close to each other. I suspect the sites will be spread out across the USA.

Waco and Austin are awfully close to each other too. The committee is not taking geography into account for Top 4 seeds. That's silly.

[trojansc]

Wisconsin must win out to be in the convo. Even beating Nebraska but losing to USC or Minnesota (again) might not be good enough IMO.

Creighton needs Penn State to lose to Purdue and Nebraska and then it gets interesting (common opponents advantage would be gone). Creighton would also like Stanford to lose at least once, probably twice to feel pretty good. And even then, it might not be a no-brainer.

One thing is pretty much for sure: if Creighton wins out, Penn State loses at least one more, Stanford loses at least one more, Creighton's RPI would be in the Top 4. Not sure how much/if that matters.

The Big East Tournament is going to provide an extra push (they'll likely get really good W/L teams in their two Big East Tournament matches)

[trojansc]

But also, all this talk about Creighton while their toughest match since.. mid-September is about to be played. They're at Marquette in about an hour. I haven't been particularly impressed with Marquette this year, but, certainly the biggest threat in the Big East and playing well I could see them giving Creighton problems.

[hopefuldawg]

Nov 10, 2024 10:01:42 GMT -5 bborr said:

Realistic hypothetical. Wisconsin wins out and Nebraska beats PSU and wins out except Wisconsin. PSU only loses to Nebraska. Louisville loses to Pitt and Stanford, who both win out. Creighton wins out. Even losing to Wisconsin, Pitt and Nebraska are 1 and 2. Who, among Stanford, Louisville, Penn State, Wisconsin and Creighton get to host the #3 and #4 regionals?

It would still be Louisville and Penn State.

Louisville and Nebraska (and Kansas and Purdue) losing hurts Creighton's chances of being a regional host because Creighton played them during non-con.

[horns1]

Nov 10, 2024 13:41:53 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Wisconsin must win out to be in the convo. Even beating Nebraska but losing to USC or Minnesota (again) might not be good enough IMO.

Creighton needs Penn State to lose to Purdue and Nebraska and then it gets interesting (common opponents advantage would be gone). Creighton would also like Stanford to lose at least once, probably twice to feel pretty good. And even then, it might not be a no-brainer.

One thing is pretty much for sure: if Creighton wins out, Penn State loses at least one more, Stanford loses at least one more, Creighton's RPI would be in the Top 4. Not sure how much/if that matters.

The Big East Tournament is going to provide an extra push (they'll likely get really good W/L teams in their two Big East Tournament matches)

Each committee emphasizes different metrics.  IIRC, last year Texas' RPI was Top 4, but didn't get named a Regional host because the committee wanted to reward teams with wins against RPI Top 10 teams and Texas fell short in that area compared to Nebraska, Wisconsin, Stanford, and Pittsburgh.

This year's committee seems to be emphasizing those same RPI Top 10 wins based on the reveal and how they bumped SMU up higher than their RPI ranking based on wins over Top 2 Nebraska and Pittsburgh despite some losses against lesser ranked teams.

Creighton currently has a 5-2 record against RPI Top 25 teams (that are ranked 16, 18, 20, 21 and 22) with their best win at RPI Top 16 Kansas; and, I don't see any of the teams they beat moving up into the RPI Top 10 at season's end.  Heck, if they beat Marquette a second team the Eagles could fall out of the RPI Top 25 as they are currently 20).  USC and Purdue could also fall out of RPI Top 25.

I honestly don't see that Creighton has the resume' of a Top 4 national seed as their best wins just don't measure up to those of Stanford and Penn State.



ncaastats.figstats.net/teamsheet.phtml/Creighton

[trojansc]

Nov 10, 2024 14:09:17 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Each committee emphasizes different metrics.  IIRC, last year Texas' RPI was Top 4, but didn't get named a Regional host because the committee wanted to reward teams with wins against RPI Top 10 teams and Texas fell short in that area compared to Nebraska, Wisconsin, Stanford, and Pittsburgh.

This year's committee seems to be emphasizing those same RPI Top 10 wins based on the reveal and how they bumped SMU up higher than their RPI ranking based on wins over Top 2 Nebraska and Pittsburgh despite some losses against lesser ranked teams.

Creighton currently has a 5-2 record against RPI Top 25 teams (that are ranked 16, 18, 20, 21 and 22) with their best win at RPI Top 16 Kansas; and, I don't see any of the teams they beat moving up into the RPI Top 10 at season's end.  Heck, if they beat Marquette a second team the Eagles could fall out of the RPI Top 25 as they are currently 20).  USC and Purdue could also fall out of RPI Top 25.

I honestly don't see that Creighton has the resume' of a Top 4 national seed as their best wins just don't measure up to those of Stanford and Penn State.

I don't like the chances for Creighton for sure, but a few things: Marquette is practically locked at Top 25. They would need to likely lose two other Big East matches (non-Creighton teams) to not be top 25.

Purdue also falling out of the Top 25 is also extremely unlikely. Purdue's RPI schedule was backloaded and I think they'd need to lose 4 more times to fall out of T25 status. I don't see Purdue losing that much. USC would also need to lose four more times, which is more likely than Purdue, but not sure I see that as likely either.

The only path includes multiple losses for Stanford/Penn State which make the value of having an additional top win at least questioned (but it could still go against Creighton).

Like, at some point, they can't prop Minnesota up to a seed from their poor RPI with ALL of these losses, even though Minnesota has better wins then the teams in front of them.

I have mixed feelings about reveals, data changes over so much and the committee does not having a good reputation in being consistent with things they .. "value". They seem to emphasize big wins, but how many losses will they excuse? Look at teams like Hawaii and Miami-FL as well (if Miami loses to Wake Forest). Hawaii currently has 4 sub-100 losses.      

[trojansc]

The committees can also just spew BS for whatever reason they want.

UCLA vs. Ball State justification: Wow, Ball State was really a lot better in the 51-100 category.

*looks at 101 RPI+ category*: UCLA had 0 losses of teams with 101 RPI or worse, Ball State had THREE! They had less losses in 51-100 because the teams they did lose to were even worse!

See how they did that? (UCLA had better wins too)

[quackquack123]

Nov 10, 2024 13:33:16 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 10, 2024 11:25:45 GMT -5 quackquack123 said:

Lol didn't WKU already beat them twice on their home floor? What am I missing?

WKU won twice at UTEP, but those were both very tightly contested matches. Where is the conference tournament hosted? (It's at UTEP). They could both get in (with one AQ/one at-large), or just one of them, and it could be either WKU or UTEP.

Judging by the last 10 years of pure dominance in conference tournaments I like WKU's chances. UTEP is a solid team but has not proven (ever) an ability to finish the job in a match with WKU. 

[hookemhorn]

Nov 10, 2024 15:07:59 GMT -5 quackquack123 said:

Nov 10, 2024 13:33:16 GMT -5 trojansc said:

WKU won twice at UTEP, but those were both very tightly contested matches. Where is the conference tournament hosted? (It's at UTEP). They could both get in (with one AQ/one at-large), or just one of them, and it could be either WKU or UTEP.

Judging by the last 10 years of pure dominance in conference tournaments I like WKU's chances. UTEP is a solid team but has not proven (ever) an ability to finish the job in a match with WKU. 

I agree. I think WKU has the AQ in the bag

[trojansc]

In the bag?! WKU went 5 with a UTEP team in the Semifinals last year, and that was a weaker UTEP team with Pustahija getting injured and missing the rest of the season.

Like, don't get me wrong, I think predicting WKU as the favorite or a champion is fine (they could easily be in the next Bracketology I do)

but like.. I don't understand how anyone looks at that match and feels like it's NOT a toss-up. If it was played in Bowling Green, maybe a different story.

(but either team getting upset before the Finals would also make this even funnier)

[trojansc]

get blue10 in here to defend the Miner squad which is a bunch of homegrown talent + two random Spicy Serbians

[blue10]

Nov 10, 2024 15:15:23 GMT -5 trojansc said:

get blue10 in here to defend the Miner squad which is a bunch of homegrown talent + two random Spicy Serbians

I stan utep but I was pissed they lost both this year to a down WKU team. They absolutely could take it in the tournament tho and they better lol

[horns1]

Nov 10, 2024 14:21:09 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 10, 2024 14:09:17 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Each committee emphasizes different metrics.  IIRC, last year Texas' RPI was Top 4, but didn't get named a Regional host because the committee wanted to reward teams with wins against RPI Top 10 teams and Texas fell short in that area compared to Nebraska, Wisconsin, Stanford, and Pittsburgh.

This year's committee seems to be emphasizing those same RPI Top 10 wins based on the reveal and how they bumped SMU up higher than their RPI ranking based on wins over Top 2 Nebraska and Pittsburgh despite some losses against lesser ranked teams.

Creighton currently has a 5-2 record against RPI Top 25 teams (that are ranked 16, 18, 20, 21 and 22) with their best win at RPI Top 16 Kansas; and, I don't see any of the teams they beat moving up into the RPI Top 10 at season's end.  Heck, if they beat Marquette a second team the Eagles could fall out of the RPI Top 25 as they are currently 20).  USC and Purdue could also fall out of RPI Top 25.

I honestly don't see that Creighton has the resume' of a Top 4 national seed as their best wins just don't measure up to those of Stanford and Penn State.

I don't like the chances for Creighton for sure, but a few things: Marquette is practically locked at Top 25. They would need to likely lose two other Big East matches (non-Creighton teams) to not be top 25.

Purdue also falling out of the Top 25 is also extremely unlikely. Purdue's RPI schedule was backloaded and I think they'd need to lose 4 more times to fall out of T25 status. I don't see Purdue losing that much. USC would also need to lose four more times, which is more likely than Purdue, but not sure I see that as likely either.

The only path includes multiple losses for Stanford/Penn State which make the value of having an additional top win at least questioned (but it could still go against Creighton).

Like, at some point, they can't prop Minnesota up to a seed from their poor RPI with ALL of these losses, even though Minnesota has better wins then the teams in front of them.

I have mixed feelings about reveals, data changes over so much and the committee does not having a good reputation in being consistent with things they .. "value". They seem to emphasize big wins, but how many losses will they excuse? Look at teams like Hawaii and Miami-FL as well (if Miami loses to Wake Forest). Hawaii currently has 4 sub-100 losses.      

Yeah, Creighton just doesn't have wins over any RPI Top 10 teams, and that isn't likely to change; unless this year's committee's changes the criteria they noted in their reveal, the Bluejays are stuck somewhere between 5-7 unless both Stanford and Penn State implode down the stretch.

[trojansc]

Anyways, the REAL conversation should be:

Should Western Kentucky get an at-large in the tournament if they lose the C-USA Finals to UTEP? Should WKU win out and lose to UTEP in the C-USA Finals, they'd have a Top 50 RPI and 2x T50 wins over UTEP. They also have a win over Arkansas State, who theoretically has potential to finish T50 as well (Ark State also beat Ole Miss).

WKU does have 1 sub-100 loss (at Michigan State)

[mikegarrison]

Nov 10, 2024 14:26:53 GMT -5 trojansc said:

The committees can also just spew BS for whatever reason they want.

Yeah. They have enough criteria they can point to that they can come up with justifications to do pretty much anything.