Bracketology (11/6)

[quackquack123]

Nov 10, 2024 15:21:04 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Anyways, the REAL conversation should be:

Should Western Kentucky get an at-large in the tournament if they lose the C-USA Finals to UTEP? Should WKU win out and lose to UTEP in the C-USA Finals, they'd have a Top 50 RPI and 2x T50 wins over UTEP. They also have a win over Arkansas State, who theoretically has potential to finish T50 as well (Ark State also beat Ole Miss).

WKU does have 1 sub-100 loss (at Michigan State)

This is very interesting and I think it depends on the committee's criteria. The big wins were not there for WKU in the noncon (although many of those matches were very tight) but they are clearly playing at a much higher level as of lately. I feel like it would be a total toss-up.

[azsker]

Nov 10, 2024 12:26:07 GMT -5 bigtenchamp1997 said:

In my opinion they won’t put two regional final sites just miles away from each other. Lincoln and Omaha are just too close to each other. I suspect the sites will be spread out across the USA.

and how far apart do you think State College and Pittsburgh are?

[Sbilo]

I feel like despite the loss, Penn State will remain as the 4th seed overall. And Creighton as 5th. Stanford 6th. Wisconsin 7th.
Obviously anything can change but that's how I think the current seed/ranking is.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 10, 2024 13:41:53 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Wisconsin must win out to be in the convo. Even beating Nebraska but losing to USC or Minnesota (again) might not be good enough IMO.

Creighton needs Penn State to lose to Purdue and Nebraska and then it gets interesting (common opponents advantage would be gone). Creighton would also like Stanford to lose at least once, probably twice to feel pretty good. And even then, it might not be a no-brainer.

One thing is pretty much for sure: if Creighton wins out, Penn State loses at least one more, Stanford loses at least one more, Creighton's RPI would be in the Top 4. Not sure how much/if that matters.

The Big East Tournament is going to provide an extra push (they'll likely get really good W/L teams in their two Big East Tournament matches)

There is no chance a 2 loss Creighton will be seeded higher than a 3 loss Penn State team.  Their ability to win close matches has been impressive.

A 4 loss Penn State team (I don't think they lose at home against Purdue) and they probably end up being #8 in RPI and possibly #9.  Not sure of the impact of the advisory group in selection?

Penn State came into the week at #8 in Pablo - I don't think this week is going to improve this.  EVolle which is up to date now also has Penn State at #8 with Arizona State right on their heals.  Wisconsin is arguably the 3rd best team in the country - Creighton, Louisville, Wisconsin, and Stanford are all good teams and very close in the analytics where one can arguably rank them in any order.  Penn State, SMU, and Arizona State are a tick below this - and I wonder if the advisory group sees this - they should be.  Anyway - there is no way Penn State deserves a top 4 seed if they lose 2 more and there is no way they aren't getting one with just 1 more loss.  

[bigtenchamp1997]

Massey Rating today
R. P SOS SSF
Neb. 1. 1. 4. 4
Pitt. 2. 2. 17. 14
Louis. 3. 3. 3. 3
Pen St. 4. 9. 9. 9
Stan. 5. 6. 1. 2
Wi. 6. 4. 2. 1.
Creig. 7. 10. 37. 51
No way Creighton is getting a top 4 spot with their weak SOS.

[horns1]

Nov 11, 2024 8:32:27 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 10, 2024 13:41:53 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Wisconsin must win out to be in the convo. Even beating Nebraska but losing to USC or Minnesota (again) might not be good enough IMO.

Creighton needs Penn State to lose to Purdue and Nebraska and then it gets interesting (common opponents advantage would be gone). Creighton would also like Stanford to lose at least once, probably twice to feel pretty good. And even then, it might not be a no-brainer.

One thing is pretty much for sure: if Creighton wins out, Penn State loses at least one more, Stanford loses at least one more, Creighton's RPI would be in the Top 4. Not sure how much/if that matters.

The Big East Tournament is going to provide an extra push (they'll likely get really good W/L teams in their two Big East Tournament matches)

There is no chance a 2 loss Creighton will be seeded higher than a 3 loss Penn State team.  Their ability to win close matches has been impressive.

A 4 loss Penn State team (I don't think they lose at home against Purdue) and they probably end up being #8 in RPI and possibly #9.  Not sure of the impact of the advisory group in selection?

Penn State came into the week at #8 in Pablo - I don't think this week is going to improve this.  EVolle which is up to date now also has Penn State at #8 with Arizona State right on their heals.  Wisconsin is arguably the 3rd best team in the country - Creighton, Louisville, Wisconsin, and Stanford are all good teams and very close in the analytics where one can arguably rank them in any order.  Penn State, SMU, and Arizona State are a tick below this - and I wonder if the advisory group sees this - they should be.  Anyway - there is no way Penn State deserves a top 4 seed if they lose 2 more and there is no way they aren't getting one with just 1 more loss.  

Good points overall.  Not sure what makes Wisconsin "third best" to you as Louisville beat them earlier in the season and has better metrics in every category.  Wisconsin has one RPI Top 10 win while Louisville has five RPI Top 10 wins.

[bigtenchamp1997]

Massey Rating today
R. P SOS SSF
Neb. 1. 1. 4. 4
Pitt. 2. 2. 17. 14
Louis. 3. 3. 3. 3
Pen St. 4. 9. 9. 9
Stan. 5. 6. 1. 2
Wi. 6. 4. 2. 1.
Creig. 7. 10. 37. 51
No way Creighton is getting a top 4 spot with their weak SOS.

[azsker]

Okay but Creighton vs PSU in a 4/5 matchup in the Elite 8? With Creighton's libero being a transfer from PSU? I love the drama. And I'd take Creighton in that matchup, because of their balance and the setter experience.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 11, 2024 10:26:21 GMT -5 bigtenchamp1997 said:

Massey Rating today
R. P SOS SSF
Neb. 1. 1. 4. 4
Pitt. 2. 2. 17. 14
Louis. 3. 3. 3. 3
Pen St. 4. 9. 9. 9
Stan. 5. 6. 1. 2
Wi. 6. 4. 2. 1.
Creig. 7. 10. 37. 51
No way Creighton is getting a top 4 spot with their weak SOS.

Your looking at the wrong Massey rankings.  Penn State is #9 and Creighton is #10.  Massey has Texas and Kentucky ahead of those two teams - which seems kind of laughable.  Plus - Massey not really being as good at this as Pablo (or EVolle).

[bluepenquin]

Nov 11, 2024 9:41:55 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 11, 2024 8:32:27 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

There is no chance a 2 loss Creighton will be seeded higher than a 3 loss Penn State team.  Their ability to win close matches has been impressive.

A 4 loss Penn State team (I don't think they lose at home against Purdue) and they probably end up being #8 in RPI and possibly #9.  Not sure of the impact of the advisory group in selection?

Penn State came into the week at #8 in Pablo - I don't think this week is going to improve this.  EVolle which is up to date now also has Penn State at #8 with Arizona State right on their heals.  Wisconsin is arguably the 3rd best team in the country - Creighton, Louisville, Wisconsin, and Stanford are all good teams and very close in the analytics where one can arguably rank them in any order.  Penn State, SMU, and Arizona State are a tick below this - and I wonder if the advisory group sees this - they should be.  Anyway - there is no way Penn State deserves a top 4 seed if they lose 2 more and there is no way they aren't getting one with just 1 more loss.  

Good points overall.  Not sure what makes Wisconsin "third best" to you as Louisville beat them earlier in the season and has better metrics in every category.  Wisconsin has one RPI Top 10 win while Louisville has five RPI Top 10 wins.

In terms of EVolle (and probably Pablo) - the difference between Wisconsin, Louisville, Creighton, and Stanford is pretty small - small enough that the precision of these kinds of things probably isn't good enough to be definitive.  So - Wisconsin may has as good of claim to #3 as any of these teams.  Plus - there may be some evidence that Wisconsin today is much different than Wisconsin in August/early September.  I can see an argument that Wisconsin is the 3rd best team right now.  

[horns1]

Nov 11, 2024 11:26:43 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 11, 2024 9:41:55 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Good points overall.  Not sure what makes Wisconsin "third best" to you as Louisville beat them earlier in the season and has better metrics in every category.  Wisconsin has one RPI Top 10 win while Louisville has five RPI Top 10 wins.

In terms of EVolle (and probably Pablo) - the difference between Wisconsin, Louisville, Creighton, and Stanford is pretty small - small enough that the precision of these kinds of things probably isn't good enough to be definitive.  So - Wisconsin may has as good of claim to #3 as any of these teams.  Plus - there may be some evidence that Wisconsin today is much different than Wisconsin in August/early September.  I can see an argument that Wisconsin is the 3rd best team right now.  

I've never heard of EVolle; does the committee use that when they rank teams?  If they don't, then it really doesn't matter to Bracketology.

We do know the committee uses RPI.  And, Louisville is currently #2 in the RPI rankings, while Wisconsin is #8.   Wisconsin really only has 1 chance to improve its resume' and that's by winning at Nebraska; winning at USC won't move the needle much, IMO.  It just won't be enough to overtake Louisville, IMO. 

Do they have a chance to overtake Penn State?  I guess that's possible since they have the recent head-to-head win over PSU.

[trojansc]

Nov 11, 2024 10:26:21 GMT -5 bigtenchamp1997 said:

Massey Rating today
R. P SOS SSF
Neb. 1. 1. 4. 4
Pitt. 2. 2. 17. 14
Louis. 3. 3. 3. 3
Pen St. 4. 9. 9. 9
Stan. 5. 6. 1. 2
Wi. 6. 4. 2. 1.
Creig. 7. 10. 37. 51
No way Creighton is getting a top 4 spot with their weak SOS.

I don't think Creighton's getting Top 4, but this is not the argument to make. One, the committee doesn't even use massey.

Crieghton's actual S.O.S: #9
Non-Conf S.O.S: #2

Penn State's S.O.S is (currently) #33.

I saw Creighton's non-conf S.O.S as #1 a couple weeks ago when I checked - Louisville has slightly edged in front of Creighton to take over #1.

[Kingsley]

The real question is whether Minnesota can stay on its path for a return trip to Omaha

[cuhawk]

I know everyone wants to knock Creighton Big East Schedule but just from the eye test in the Non Con games they certainly belong in the top 4. When will the NCAA come out with their next set of rankings? I know they did it two weeks ago but will they do it again?

[big10+4 fan]

Nov 11, 2024 12:21:59 GMT -5 cuhawk said:

I know everyone wants to knock Creighton Big East Schedule but just from the eye test in the Non Con games they certainly belong in the top 4. When will the NCAA come out with their next set of rankings? I know they did it two weeks ago but will they do it again?

That was only one this year