Bracketology (11/12)

[Kearney Kingston]

Nov 14, 2024 9:41:19 GMT -5 Kearney Kingston said:

Nov 13, 2024 13:18:26 GMT -5 jomama said:

Thank you for the projections.
UVA vs UF…could this be a job interview for Shannon? She was the primary recruiter for UF until she took the UVA head job and helped revitalize the Hoos. Would/Could she be in line to replace Mary whenever (if ever) Mary retires?
Assuming the Gators do their job and get Kansas in round 2 - anyone willing to give their insights in the Jayhawks? I have not watched many Big 12 matches and have no idea what Kansas brings to the court.

Coaches and fans of SEC teams are hoping so…

[knapplc]

Nov 12, 2024 20:12:07 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Lincoln Regional (#1)

(1) Nebraska vs. Winthrop*
Hawaii* vs. (8) Florida State*

(4) TCU vs. Stephen F. Austin
Arkansas vs. (5) Georgia Tech*

(2) Wisconsin vs. Delaware*
Northern Iowa vs. (7) Miami-FL*

(3) Arizona State vs. Utah State*
San Diego vs. (6) Southern California

[bluepenquin]

Nov 14, 2024 9:01:52 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

Nov 13, 2024 15:47:40 GMT -5 FTLOG said:

It might all be moot, Creighton may get to host with the weakest set of wins we’ve ever seen.

The best recent comp to Creighton would be the 2022 San Diego team.  San Diego went 27-1 and received the #5 seed.  San Diego would make the final four before losing to Texas.  

Here were the top 50 (Pablo) wins by San Diego that year:

#6 Pittsburgh (N)
#8 Ohio State (N)
#17 BYU (A)
#17 BYU (H)
#30 Hawaii (N)
#33 LMU (A)
#33 LMU (H)
#37 Pepperdine (A)
#37 Pepperdine (H)
#47 SMU (H)

Lost to #2 Louisville on the road.

Here are Creighton's wins:

#9 Purdue (N)
#12 Missouri (N)
#15 Kansas (A)
#22 USC (N)
#32 Northern Iowa (N)
#34 Marquette (A)
#34 Marquette (H)
#34 Marquette (N) - if they play in the BE tournament
#41 NC State (H)
#45 Kansas State (A)

Losses on the road to #1 Nebraska and #4 Louisville.

Those wins are remarkably similar.  San Diego didn't get a top 4 seed, but they did make the final four.  Creighton does have the extra loss - but then Creighton per the metrics is a much, much, much better team than San Diego.  

[B1GHuskerGuy]

So most likely Creighton will be playing at PSU, Louisville and maybe Stanford. Right? Seems like 5-6 line is their ceiling and floor (if they win out)?

[avid 2.0]

Nov 14, 2024 10:36:08 GMT -5 B1GHuskerGuy said:

So most likely Creighton will be playing at PSU, Louisville and maybe Stanford. Right? Seems like 5-6 line is their ceiling and floor (if they win out)?

If Wisconsin beats Nebraska and Stanford beats LV, they could probably drop to 7. 

[B1GHuskerGuy]

Nov 14, 2024 10:37:42 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

Nov 14, 2024 10:36:08 GMT -5 B1GHuskerGuy said:

So most likely Creighton will be playing at PSU, Louisville and maybe Stanford. Right? Seems like 5-6 line is their ceiling and floor (if they win out)?

If Wisconsin beats Nebraska and Stanford beats LV, they could probably drop to 7. 

Which probably sends them to Lincoln, oh no thank you!

[trianglevolleyball]

Nov 14, 2024 10:30:44 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 14, 2024 9:01:52 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

It might all be moot, Creighton may get to host with the weakest set of wins we’ve ever seen.

  

Here were the top 50 (Pablo) wins by San Diego that year:

To the best of my knowledge, the committee does not factor Pablo rating in evaluating wins. But again, you love blurring the lines between selection criteria and predictive models.

Purdue and Kansas are not going to have RPIs that high. I’m not going to check the RPIs of all of San Diego’s wins, because they also weren’t a regional host. But I would be shocked if a team has ever been seeded Top 4 without a single top 10 RPI win (and Creighton may end without a top 16 win frankly).

[bluepenquin]

You are the one that brought up Creighton 'has the weakest set of wins we've ever seen'. Which I thought you meant reality and not RPI. But if you want to use RPI - Creighton's schedule blows San Diego out of the water.

San Diego:
#3 Pittsburgh
#7 Ohio State
#25 BYU
#25 BYU
#49 LMU
#49 LMU

Creighton (using current RPI Futures):
#11 Kansas
#14 Missouri
#16 Purdue
#19 Marquette
#19 Marquette
#19 Marquette
#22 USC
#37 Northern Iowa
#46 NC State

That is 6 top 20 wins for Creighton this year.

Here are Penn State T50 wins using RPI Futures:

#3 Louisville
#10 Kentucky
#15 Oregon
#16 Purdue
#22 USC
#27 Minnesota
#31 Tennessee
#40 Yale

Creighton has 2 more top 20 wins, 2 more top 25 wins, 3 more top 50 wins than Penn State. If Penn State becomes the #4 seed, will you call this the weakest set of wins we've ever seen?

[trojansc]

I expect Creighton to have 7 top 25 wins, 10 Top 50 wins.

-Their entire non-conference schedule is teams who have an RPI of 92 or better.
-10 of their 11 non-conference opponents have an RPI of 59 or better.
-6 of the 11 are Top 25 teams, 9 of the 11 are Top 50 teams.

[horns1]

If the committee puts an emphasis on RPI Top 10 wins, then Creighton has no chance at a Top 4 national seed, IMO. Same thing happened to Texas last season despite a high RPI.

[trojansc]

Nov 14, 2024 11:08:15 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

I’m not going to check the RPIs of all of San Diego’s wins, because they also weren’t a regional host.

Would you like to check the RPI's of Stanford's wins?

As of the day before the selections were made, Stanford only had 3 Top 25 wins. They were extremely fortunate that USC slotted into a Top 25 spot and knocked BYU out - this took USC(x2) as 2 Top 25 wins instead of BYU (who was going to give San Diego 2x more wins).

That's why the San Diego vs. Stanford debate was so hotly contested.

Stanford got a regional with 5 Top 25 wins, best win being over #8 RPI. It's possible Creighton will have more T25 wins and depending on how the RPI plays out - one of those teams could be not too far off from #8.

[trojansc]

Nov 14, 2024 16:15:15 GMT -5 horns1 said:

If the committee puts an emphasis on RPI Top 10 wins, then Creighton has no chance at a Top 4 national seed, IMO. Same thing happened to Texas last season despite a high RPI.

Texas had an RPI of #6 at selection Sunday, had two losses to teams outside the Top 50 (K-State and Long Beach State), and only 4 Top 25 wins.

Creighton's profile will likely be better than all of those metrics.

But of course, maybe if the committee puts an emphasis on Top 15 or Top 16 wins, things could change? They can pick any number they'd like, I guess.

[horns1]

Nov 14, 2024 16:18:52 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 14, 2024 16:15:15 GMT -5 horns1 said:

If the committee puts an emphasis on RPI Top 10 wins, then Creighton has no chance at a Top 4 national seed, IMO. Same thing happened to Texas last season despite a high RPI.

Texas had an RPI of #6 at selection Sunday, had two losses to teams outside the Top 50 (K-State and Long Beach State), and only 4 Top 25 wins.

Creighton's profile will likely be better than all of those metrics.

But of course, maybe if the committee puts an emphasis on Top 15 or Top 16 wins, things could change? They can pick any number they'd like, I guess.

My mistake.  That late season loss at KSU brought down the RPI below #4.

I believe the committee chairman stated in the reveal that they were rewarding teams for RPI Top 10 wins; and, that is why SMU was #7.  Last year they definitely stated in first reveal that they were placing an emphasis on RPI Top 10 wins.

[trojansc]

Nov 14, 2024 11:08:15 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

Nov 14, 2024 10:30:44 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

  
#15 Kansas (A)

Kansas are not going to have RPIs that high.

Why not?

Kansas is predicted even better than bluepenquin's listed Pablo ranking, Kansas is currently at #12 in RPI Futures.

[trojansc]

Today's big matches:

Arizona at Cincinnati - Wildcats need EVERY win they can get.

Liberty at Western Kentucky - WKU has wrapped up #1 seed in C-USA, but, they want to keep hopes up for an at-large if UTEP wins the Final.

Virginia at Stanford - I don't see it. I think Virginia's overachieved, but, I'm including this match here in case they can pull off a massive upset. Stanford would be out of the running for a regional (imo) and Virginia could practically seal its tournament bid.

Wisconsin at USC - Wisconsin still in the running for a regional, USC still in the running for a Top 16 seed, but the Women really need a big win.