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Post by bbg95 on Nov 14, 2024 17:22:18 GMT -5
Creighton has 2 more top 20 wins, 2 more top 25 wins, 3 more top 50 wins than Penn State. If Penn State becomes the #4 seed, will you call this the weakest set of wins we've ever seen? Penn State's best win is way better than any Creighton win. One of the problems with classifying top 25 wins, for example, is that it doesn't differentiate between beating the No. 1 team and the No. 25 team. Both are classified as top 25 wins, but one is a lot more impressive than the other. Meanwhile, a win over the No. 26 team is classified in the 26-50 category, even though the No. 26 team is a lot closer to the No. 25 team than No. 25 is to No. 1. |
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 14, 2024 17:26:58 GMT -5
If the committee puts an emphasis on RPI Top 10 wins, then Creighton has no chance at a Top 4 national seed, IMO. Same thing happened to Texas last season despite a high RPI. Creighton's resume this year is light years better than what Texas had last year. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 14, 2024 17:34:18 GMT -5
Kansas are not going to have RPIs that high. Why not? Kansas is predicted even better than bluepenquin's listed Pablo ranking, Kansas is currently at #12 in RPI Futures. I feel like I should point out that RPI Futures and Pablo are not independent, because Pablo is used to generate the RPI Futures. If Pablo has a team too high (or too low), then RPI Futures will be predicting their RPI too high (or too low). |
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 14, 2024 17:34:21 GMT -5
Creighton has 2 more top 20 wins, 2 more top 25 wins, 3 more top 50 wins than Penn State. If Penn State becomes the #4 seed, will you call this the weakest set of wins we've ever seen? Penn State's best win is way better than any Creighton win. If that is the criteria - then SMU should be the #2 seed. Penn State (if they beat Purdue and end up with only 3 losses on the season) will be a top 4 seed. They will have the edge over Creighton because of common opponents and deserve the seed. However, that doesn't mean that Penn State's wins are better than Creighton - because they aren't (necessarily). |
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 14, 2024 17:38:16 GMT -5
Why not? Kansas is predicted even better than bluepenquin's listed Pablo ranking, Kansas is currently at #12 in RPI Futures. I feel like I should point out that RPI Futures and Pablo are not independent, because Pablo is used to generate the RPI Futures. True - but Kansas is also #11 in the current RPI from figstats. Pablo has Kansas slightly worse than either current RPI or Futures (but it also hasn't been updated with matches this week either). |
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Post by azsker on Nov 14, 2024 17:39:44 GMT -5
I want my final four to be Nebraska vs Louisville and Pitt vs Wisconsin so the bracket needs to reflect that possibility and this one doesn’t so it’s not for me
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Post by bbg95 on Nov 14, 2024 17:40:19 GMT -5
Penn State's best win is way better than any Creighton win. If that is the criteria - then SMU should be the #2 seed. Penn State (if they beat Purdue and end up with only 3 losses on the season) will be a top 4 seed. They will have the edge over Creighton because of common opponents and deserve the seed. However, that doesn't mean that Penn State's wins are better than Creighton - because they aren't (necessarily). Dude, come on. You're smarter than that. You can't ignore who the teams have lost to. SMU has six losses, including LMU and Hawaii. Penn State has demonstrated that they can beat another team that will likely be a regional host. Creighton had two shots to do that and came up short both times. And unlike SMU, Penn State only has two losses, both to top 10 teams. We agree that if Penn State only loses to Nebraska the rest of the way, they'll be a top 4 seed. |
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 14, 2024 17:42:27 GMT -5
Why not? Kansas is predicted even better than bluepenquin's listed Pablo ranking, Kansas is currently at #12 in RPI Futures. I feel like I should point out that RPI Futures and Pablo are not independent, because Pablo is used to generate the RPI Futures. If Pablo has a team too high (or too low), then RPI Futures will be predicting their RPI too high (or too low). But like regardless of whatever you want to use in this instance, RPI Futures is using Pablo to predict 1 more loss - Kansas only has 2 opponents remaining that have records above .500 and they have a home match against one of those teams. |
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 14, 2024 17:45:31 GMT -5
If that is the criteria - then SMU should be the #2 seed. Penn State (if they beat Purdue and end up with only 3 losses on the season) will be a top 4 seed. They will have the edge over Creighton because of common opponents and deserve the seed. However, that doesn't mean that Penn State's wins are better than Creighton - because they aren't (necessarily). Dude, come on. You're smarter than that. You can't ignore who the teams have lost to. SMU has six losses, including LMU and Hawaii. Penn State has the better win than Creighton's best win. I have never seen this as a primary metric used by the committee. And for good reason - if that was a metric, SMU would be a top 4 seed since they have the best win in the country. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 14, 2024 17:46:33 GMT -5
I feel like I should point out that RPI Futures and Pablo are not independent, because Pablo is used to generate the RPI Futures. If Pablo has a team too high (or too low), then RPI Futures will be predicting their RPI too high (or too low). But like regardless of whatever you want to use in this instance, RPI Futures is using Pablo to predict 1 more loss - Kansas only has 2 opponents remaining that have records above .500 and they have a home match against one of those teams. Like I said, I just felt like I should point out they aren't independent. Using one to validate the other is ... problematic. |
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Post by bbg95 on Nov 14, 2024 17:47:53 GMT -5
Dude, come on. You're smarter than that. You can't ignore who the teams have lost to. SMU has six losses, including LMU and Hawaii. Penn State has the better win than Creighton's best win. I have never seen this as a primary metric used by the committee. And for good reason - if that was a metric, SMU would be a top 4 seed since they have the best win in the country. Significant wins and losses is one of the most important criteria. It may not be considered the way you're describing it, but it is considered. |
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Nov 14, 2024 17:48:51 GMT -5
If that is the criteria - then SMU should be the #2 seed. Penn State (if they beat Purdue and end up with only 3 losses on the season) will be a top 4 seed. They will have the edge over Creighton because of common opponents and deserve the seed. However, that doesn't mean that Penn State's wins are better than Creighton - because they aren't (necessarily). Dude, come on. You're smarter than that. You can't ignore who the teams have lost to. SMU has six losses, including LMU and Hawaii. Hey, let my Lions live! They are on the cusp of Top 25 (and winning out, which is a real possibility could definitely have them finish at T25 status) Not really relevant to your point at all though, lol, but I there's been talk about SMU's losses all season, and it seems interesting they can possibly finish with 1 loss outside the Top 25, and zero losses outside the Top 50. I think that profile could make their seed very high (which I have been predicting a good seed for them anyways), especially considering they beat #1 and #2. |
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Post by bbg95 on Nov 14, 2024 17:49:48 GMT -5
Dude, come on. You're smarter than that. You can't ignore who the teams have lost to. SMU has six losses, including LMU and Hawaii. Hey, let my Lions live! They are on the cusp of Top 25 (and winning out, which is a real possibility could definitely have them finish at T25 status) Not really relevant to your point at all though, lol, but I there's been talk about SMU's losses all season, and it seems interesting they can possibly finish with 1 loss outside the Top 25, and zero losses outside the Top 50. I think that profile could make their seed very high (which I have been predicting a good seed for them anyways), especially considering they beat #1 and #2. Nothing against LMU, lol. They just aren't a top 10 team the way the teams that have beat Penn State are. |
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Post by houstonbear15 on Nov 14, 2024 17:51:06 GMT -5
I feel like I should point out that RPI Futures and Pablo are not independent, because Pablo is used to generate the RPI Futures. If Pablo has a team too high (or too low), then RPI Futures will be predicting their RPI too high (or too low). But like regardless of whatever you want to use in this instance, RPI Futures is using Pablo to predict 1 more loss - Kansas only has 2 opponents remaining that have records above .500 and they have a home match against one of those teams. Ooh come on, let that loss be to Baylor... Idk what the RPI implications would be, but if Baylor can beat KU, their resume will look much better than TCU/Utah/BYU for hosting contention. |
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Post by horns1 on Nov 14, 2024 17:55:07 GMT -5
If the committee puts an emphasis on RPI Top 10 wins, then Creighton has no chance at a Top 4 national seed, IMO. Same thing happened to Texas last season despite a high RPI. Creighton's resume this year is light years better than what Texas had last year. Texas ended up with the #6 national seed last year. If Creighton's resume' was all that, they would be in line for much better than a #5 or 6 national seed in 2024 which is pretty much their ceiling due to zero RPI Top 10 wins. |
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