Atlantic 10
It is unlikely Dayton gets a Top 16 seed. Dayton is 18-0 in conference play. Dayton's biggest threat in the A10 Tournament is VCU. Set scores were (-13, -17, -19) and (-15, -19, -23) in two Dayton sweeps already this year.
IF Dayton is upset - Dayton will get an at-large bid, and one of those
SEC bubble teams will see their at-large bid burst.
AACRice's loss to North Texas made me think they are out in terms of an at-large, but, looking at it, they still have some RPI love. UT-Arlington, should they win the WAC, may be Rice's only Top 50 win.
South Florida has a better shot IMO, despite the worse RPI, because of the wins. But South Florida doesn't really have much breathing room and needs to make the Finals.
AAC's best hopes are those 2 make it to the Finals and the committee gives the loser an at-large bid. If either lose in the Semis, they are probably toast. Wichita State is hosting the tournament. They could get hot and win it all or lose to Tulsa in the opening round.
ACCPitt and Louisville still hosting regionals. Stanford needs to win out and hope for Penn State losses (a Creighton loss definitely helps).
SMU will be seeded very high. Georgia Tech may need to beat Pitt or Stanford to get a seed, but 2-2 just against the Florida schools *could* also be good enough. If they go 3-1, they will for sure be a seed. 1-3 definitely won't be good enough.
North Carolina, FSU, and Miami-FL should all be seeded teams (17-32 range).
Virginia is sitting firmly on the bubble. 3-1 guarantees it for Virginia, 2-2 leaves it up to the committee and 1-3 is out.
NC State goes 2-2 and they are 100% in. If they go 1-3 and it's over SMU or Pitt, I think they're in for sure. If they win one and it's Miami, it depends... If they go 0-4, they're probably out. NC State does have the H2H with Virginia.
A-SUNFGCU getting in as an at-large seems very unlikely. Probably best case: beat Queens, beat EKU, lose to Lipscomb in the Finals. FGCU has wins over South Florida and Drake, who are maybe's to finish Top 50 RPI. It seems very unlikely.
Big East
Creighton's biggest match this week is happening in Happy Valley (Purdue at Penn State).
Marquette needs to not look past a DePaul team. Marquette still hoping to win out and get a Top 16 seed.
St. John's needs to beat UConn this week for any possible playing themselves back onto the bubble conversation, like they did last year.
Big Ten
Nebraska is hosting a regional. Two humongous matches this week: Purdue at Penn State and Wisconsin at Nebraska. Regional implications for Penn State and Wisconsin - and Purdue wants some breathing room in terms of hosting 1st/2nd round. Should Purdue lose to Penn State, the USC at Purdue match has extra importance.
Oregon wins out and they are hosting 1st/2nd rounds. If they lose once, maybe. If they lose twice, forget about it.
Minnesota must win out to have any hope of hosting. I don't really think they have a shot, they lost to like every bubble seed (USC, Purdue, Oregon, TCU, Baylor)
Bubble:
-Illinois and Washington likely just one win away from locking for sure, would take a collapse to miss the tournament.
-Ohio State needs to win out. Anything else won't be good enough. UCLA can win out - and it seems very do-able, though not likely. If UCLA wins out, I think they should get in.
-Michigan and Indiana = zero chance
Big 12
ASU still in position for a great seed. Kansas should host unless they lose out.
Four B12 teams are fighting to host 1st/2nd rounds: Utah, TCU, BYU, Baylor.
-TCU might have lost its chance already with its loss to K-State. If they lose again, they for sure won't host.
-BYU is the only team that can *add* to its current résumé. If BYU wins out - including winning at Kansas, they have a chance to host 1st/2nd rounds. If they don't, they shouldn't.
-Baylor has the best win among the group (ASU).
-Utah has a H2H advantage with Baylor, TCU, and tied 1-1 with BYU. Utah does have a loss to Purdue.
Arizona is the only bubble team. Arizona wins out and they should get in. Lose one more, maybe. Lose two more, for sure out.
We can't count out K-State just yet if they win all their remaining matches. They'd have 3 Top 25 wins with a rough RPI. It's a longshot for sure though.
Big WestNobody has an at-large shot except Hawaii. Hawaii is very weird, top-10 win, 3-4 sub 100 losses. If they take care of Irvine and Fullerton, they can likely afford a loss in the Big West Finals... *maybe* even the Semifinals!
C-USAUTEP and WKU. Both make the finals - the loser has a chance at an at-large bid.
-UTEP's case: RPI. Hope that Southeastern Louisiana finishes Top 50.-
-WKU's case: 2x Top 50 wins over UTEP. Hope that Arkansas State wins the Sun Belt and finishes T50 in RPI.
Horizon LeagueWright State could be on the bubble with a loss in the Horizon League Tournament. They could hope Appalachian State finishes Top 50. It would become a toss-up. They just played the worst team on their schedule all season (#269 Oakland) ... and lost
They didn't have a loss outside the Top 100 before that..
Missouri Valley
Northern Iowa still has a match against Drake left. UNI could be on the bubble if they lose the MVC Tournament. They want Rice to win the AAC. UNI has been very dominant, only lost 5 sets in conference play.
Drake inserts their name on the bubble though if they can win the re-match with Northern Iowa.
SECKentucky and Texas will host. Texas A&M, Florida and Missouri need to win out to have any chance.
Bubble:
-Oklahoma can probably go 0-3 and still get in, but 1-2 guarantees it.
-Tennessee goes 2-1 and they're in. If they go 1-2 they're a maybe. If they go 0-3, likely out.
-Auburn wins 2 more - should be in. 1 more - it depends. Loses all three - should be out.
-Arkansas goes 2-1 and they're in. 1-2 is a maybe. 0-3 = should be out.
-Ole Miss could get in with just 1 more win. Two wins is for sure. Losing all three and likely out.
-South Carolina goes 2-2 and they're in. If they go 1-3, I think they should still get in, but it's a maybe. If they go 0-4, for sure out.
-LSU likely doesn't have a shot, but maybe KPI factors in if they win their last matches? Georgia could possibly win out and get in. It would be a stretch.
Sun BeltI don't see a path for multi-bids, though, maybe Georgia Southern, App State, or Arkansas State end up on the bubble if they make it to the Sun Belt Finals and one loses to another. Arkansas State has a win over Ole Miss, GA Southern and App State split with each other.
WCCLMU clinches the WCC AQ with two wins this week. They are likely to be a Top 32 seed unless they lose two more.
San Diego wins out, they should get an at-large. If they lose just once, especially to Pepperdine, I think San Diego still gets in. If they lose twice, I think they're out.
Pepperdine wins out and they should probably get in. If they lose just one, it's a maybe, but it's looking better now. 2 more losses, they should be out.
They didn't have a loss outside the Top 100 before that..
