Bracketology (11/18)

[uofaGRAD]

Nov 23, 2024 22:07:51 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 23, 2024 22:04:26 GMT -5 bprtbone said:

What a mess for the bubble teams today.

The SEC is drunk (it's Saturday) and loving it.

I was so confused for a minute until I fully realized you meant football

it has CERTAINLY been a weird football day lol

[trojansc]

This would be the strict cut-line as of real-time, right now.

RPI Cut line Right now for bubble teams

38 UTEP
39 Ole Miss
40 Arizona
41 South Carolina
42 Virginia
44 Rice
------------------
46 Pepperdine
47 Auburn
50 NC State
51 Wright State
53 Georgia Southern
55 San Diego

[azsker]

Nov 23, 2024 23:30:52 GMT -5 trojansc said:

This would be the strict cut-line as of real-time, right now.

RPI Cut line Right now for bubble teams

38 UTEP
39 Ole Miss
40 Arizona
41 South Carolina
42 Virginia
44 Rice
------------------
46 Pepperdine
47 Auburn
50 NC State
51 Wright State
53 Georgia Southern
55 San Diego

NC State missing that SMU game 😬😬

[caarmadillovb]

Thank you for doing this.  Stupid question.  Where are these RPI numbers coming from?  Assuming they are different that the end of season RPI futures?  Thanks in advance

Nov 23, 2024 23:30:52 GMT -5 trojansc said:

This would be the strict cut-line as of real-time, right now.

RPI Cut line Right now for bubble teams

38 UTEP
39 Ole Miss
40 Arizona
41 South Carolina
42 Virginia
44 Rice
------------------
46 Pepperdine
47 Auburn
50 NC State
51 Wright State
53 Georgia Southern
55 San Diego

[trojansc]

Nov 24, 2024 0:05:40 GMT -5 caarmadillovb said:

Thank you for doing this.  Stupid question.  Where are these RPI numbers coming from?  Assuming they are different that the end of season RPI futures?  Thanks in advance

Nov 23, 2024 23:30:52 GMT -5 trojansc said:

This would be the strict cut-line as of real-time, right now.

RPI Cut line Right now for bubble teams

38 UTEP
39 Ole Miss
40 Arizona
41 South Carolina
42 Virginia
44 Rice
------------------
46 Pepperdine
47 Auburn
50 NC State
51 Wright State
53 Georgia Southern
55 San Diego

Not a dumb question. If I ever mention "real-time" numbers, it's probably coming from this site: ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi The "RPI With Bonuses"/green is the RPI that matters. The red is used for calculating bonuses. The blue (home/away) isn't relevant.

[caarmadillovb]

Nov 24, 2024 0:09:11 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 24, 2024 0:05:40 GMT -5 caarmadillovb said:

Thank you for doing this.  Stupid question.  Where are these RPI numbers coming from?  Assuming they are different that the end of season RPI futures?  Thanks in advance

Not a dumb question. If I ever mention "real-time" numbers, it's probably coming from this site: ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi The "RPI With Bonuses"/green is the RPI that matters. The red is used for calculating bonuses. The blue (home/away) isn't relevant.

Awesome - thank you for the clarification!  How closely does the "RPI with Bonuses" from figstats match up with the official RPI that comes out each Monday from the NCAA?  

[trojansc]

Nov 24, 2024 0:13:02 GMT -5 caarmadillovb said:

Nov 24, 2024 0:09:11 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Not a dumb question. If I ever mention "real-time" numbers, it's probably coming from this site: ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi The "RPI With Bonuses"/green is the RPI that matters. The red is used for calculating bonuses. The blue (home/away) isn't relevant.

Awesome - thank you for the clarification!  How closely does the "RPI with Bonuses" from figstats match up with the official RPI that comes out each Monday from the NCAA?  

It matches up about like 99% exactly. I have seen instances of teams that are tied or within .0001-.0002 that have switched spots, but that's pretty trivial in most instances.

[skolgophers]

Nov 24, 2024 0:16:13 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 24, 2024 0:13:02 GMT -5 caarmadillovb said:

Awesome - thank you for the clarification!  How closely does the "RPI with Bonuses" from figstats match up with the official RPI that comes out each Monday from the NCAA?  

It matches up about like 99% exactly. I have seen instances of teams that are tied or within .0001-.0002 that have switched spots, but that's pretty trivial in most instances.

Reason number 100 why RPI is stupid: SDSU at 29 with no top 50 matches above Miami and Arizona each with two top 25 wins.

[boilermaker5]

Nov 22, 2024 10:43:18 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 22, 2024 10:29:08 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

They may very well end up losing 3 of those T50 wins with Arkansas and Auburn.  Their T25 w/l% doesn't set them apart from the other contenders - and their best RPI win is Missouri.  I would guess this would be the least among those bubble teams.

That makes sense; even if Auburn and Arkansas dropped out of the RPI Top 50, that leaves Florida at 6-4; still right in line with the other sub-regional host contenders.  Florida really needs Texas A&M to remain in the RPI Top 25 (currently at #25).

I did not realize Purdue's resume' only included a record of 4-6 against RPI Top 50 teams; that's on the low end of wins compared to the other contenders.  Winner of their match at Oregon probably hosts as that will elevate one of them to 3 wins against RPI Top 25 teams.

Purdue's schedule let them down this year rpi wise, all 6 of those losses in the top 50 stat are to teams in the top 11. Will the committee consider that? Hope Purdue can make it not matter next week.

[AmeriCanVBfan]

Nov 24, 2024 0:16:13 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 24, 2024 0:13:02 GMT -5 caarmadillovb said:

Awesome - thank you for the clarification!  How closely does the "RPI with Bonuses" from figstats match up with the official RPI that comes out each Monday from the NCAA?  

It matches up about like 99% exactly. I have seen instances of teams that are tied or within .0001-.0002 that have switched spots, but that's pretty trivial in most instances.

So how does Marquette have an RPI of 22 while going 1-6 against Top 25 teams and 2-6 against Top 50 teams?
Does that make sense?

[trojansc]

Nov 24, 2024 1:56:40 GMT -5 AmeriCanVBfan said:

Nov 24, 2024 0:16:13 GMT -5 trojansc said:

It matches up about like 99% exactly. I have seen instances of teams that are tied or within .0001-.0002 that have switched spots, but that's pretty trivial in most instances.

So how does Marquette have an RPI of 22 while going 1-6 against Top 25 teams and 2-6 against Top 50 teams?
Does that make sense?

50%(!) of your ranking is an average of your opponents W/L records:

Marquette played the RPI game as good as anyone can.. look at their non-conf schedule:

Dayton (29-1)
Pittsburgh (26-1)
Stanford (22-4)
Kansas (22-3)
Western Kentucky (27-6)
Wisconsin (21-6)
East Carolina (18-9)
Milwaukee (20-12)
Western Michigan (19-12)
Princeton (15-11)
Eastern Illinois (9-19)

[trojansc]

This is going to be a long wait for the following teams, here are their press releases

Rice

The Owls will await to hear its postseason fate.

UTEP
NO Mention in Semifinal loss Press Release


Wright State

Wright State (24-6) now waits for the NCAA Championship Selection Show next Sunday night to see if its résumé and Top 50 RPI will earn the Raiders an at-large berth in the tournament.

South Florida
NO Mention in Semifinal loss Press Release



If you had to ask me who the best team was out of those 4 - it's probably UTEP. UTEP has the best RPI, so maybe the best shot. But South Florida has the best wins - but "ouch" on that RPI and USF has bad losses, so, not seeing them with any good chance.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 24, 2024 1:56:40 GMT -5 AmeriCanVBfan said:

Nov 24, 2024 0:16:13 GMT -5 trojansc said:

It matches up about like 99% exactly. I have seen instances of teams that are tied or within .0001-.0002 that have switched spots, but that's pretty trivial in most instances.

So how does Marquette have an RPI of 22 while going 1-6 against Top 25 teams and 2-6 against Top 50 teams?
Does that make sense?

Wait until they end up around #17-19 after the Big East tournament.

Their last 3 matches could end up being - DePaul, UConn, and Creighton.  That is an average opponent w/l% of .792.  That is huge for the RPI - if you are able to win 2 of those 3.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 23, 2024 23:30:52 GMT -5 trojansc said:

This would be the strict cut-line as of real-time, right now.

RPI Cut line Right now for bubble teams

38 UTEP
39 Ole Miss
40 Arizona
41 South Carolina
42 Virginia
44 Rice
------------------
46 Pepperdine
47 Auburn
50 NC State
51 Wright State
53 Georgia Southern
55 San Diego

Arizona is probably in if they win their last 2 (UCF and @ Texas Tech).  Pablo only gives them around a 65% of winning both, but the way they are playing right now I like their chances better than this.  remaining opponent w/l% is only .406 - so they are going to take a hit in terms of RPI SOS.  

South Carolina has a great RPI SOS schedule remaining (Florida, TAM, @ Tennessee) with an average opponent w/l% of .713 and bonus points for any of these wins.  However - Pablo thinks they are the underdog in each of these matches.  They are likely to keep this RPI rank even if they lose 2 of the final 3 - which makes me think they may only need to win one more match to get in.

Virginia - They have Notre Dame, Boston College, and @ UNC left with an opponent w/l% of .556.  I am not sure that just 2 wins will get it done unless one of them is @ UNC.

Pepperdine:  They have San Diego and Oregon State left - both at home.  .519 opponent w/l%.  I think winning both will get them in - but their resume in quality wins is rather weak.  Pablo gives them just a 50% chance of winning both - as that San Diego match is a big one.

Auburn has Oklahoma and Missouri on the road left.  Average w/l% of .653.  The problem - they will be significant underdogs in both matches.  If they lose both - they may drop out of the top 60.  Win 1 and they are probably in.  Pablo gives them just a 31% chance of winning 1 of these 2.

San Diego has Saint Mary's and @ Pepperdine.  Opponent avg w/l% of .519.  Like Pepperdine - they will need to win both to have chance - but Pepperdine would be in the better RPI position with 2 wins vs. San Diego.  Pepperdine vs. San Diego is an elimination game - Pablo thinks Pepperdine has a 53% chance of winning (but that San Diego is the better team).  

Hawaii is currently #43.  If we model in matches against UC Irvine and Cal Poly for the Big West tournament - that is an opponent w/l% of .638.  If they were to win against Irvine and lose against Cal Poly - Futures has the average RPI for them at #52.  If UC Davis were to upset UC Irvine in the 1st round (43% chance) - this could have a major impact on Hawaii's final RPI if they were lose in the finals to Cal Poly.  This Davis/Irvine match could be sneaky important to Hawaii.

[bluepenquin]

I have been saying this would happen for week - and now Purdue is inside the T16 in RPI.

I think their path is rather simple. Just need to win 1 of their final two matches (@ Oregon and @ Washington). .723 opponent w/l% plus bonus points for a win.

Pablo gives them an 85% chance of winning 1.