Bracketology (11/18)

[avid 2.0]

Nov 20, 2024 16:50:55 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 20, 2024 11:41:26 GMT -5 trojansc said:

One thing that’s impressive to me (just that it happened, not that its giving them an edge or anything):

If - Penn State beats Purdue, but loses to Nebraska and Stanford beats Louisville - where to do you see this shaking out between Penn State and Louisville for the #4 seed?  I think Stanford will have the edge - maybe a pretty clear edge.

you'd use H2H in that scenario, right? 

(or give it to Louisville to boost attendance numbers over whatever Rec Hall is lol) 

[trianglevolleyball]

Nov 20, 2024 17:00:38 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 20, 2024 13:49:20 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

I think you're underestimating how much easier it is to play in the Big East night to night than the ACC or Big Ten. They might be top four in those conferences, but they would almost certainly have some conference losses at this point due to the significantly harder competition.

And Creighton played three Pablo Top 15 teams in 7 days in September - a MUCH more difficult stretch than any Penn State has had this year. When Creighton played Louisville, it was their third match in 3 days.

With how Penn State has looked, they would almost certainly have had more non-conference losses if they played a harder schedule too.

A Penn State team with a freshman setter and two transfer hitters without any playing experience played and beat the likely SEC champion and possible ACC champion with returning starters at almost every position the second week of their season.

You need to be a little more serious about the quality of Penn State’s performance in non-conference if you think they’re overrated because they’ve played they’ve played a “MUCH easier” non-conference schedule. That Louisville match occurred after Creighton played two cupcakes, a full weak before the Kansas/Purdue matches. Your framing of that 7 day stretch is quite disingenuous.

[Millenium]

Nov 20, 2024 17:05:21 GMT -5 blue10 said:

Nov 20, 2024 16:56:06 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

IMO - they should be under that scenario (assuming everything else goes chalk).

ugh I just know Penn state is still getting it in that scenario lol

If Penn State's only remaining loss is Nebraska, there is a very good chance they get the 4 seed, if they lose to Purdue or Washington and Nebraska, I'm pretty sure they are out of contention.

[bbg95]

Nov 20, 2024 17:00:38 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 20, 2024 13:49:20 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

I think you're underestimating how much easier it is to play in the Big East night to night than the ACC or Big Ten. They might be top four in those conferences, but they would almost certainly have some conference losses at this point due to the significantly harder competition.

And Creighton played three Pablo Top 15 teams in 7 days in September - a MUCH more difficult stretch than any Penn State has had this year. When Creighton played Louisville, it was their third match in 3 days.

With how Penn State has looked, they would almost certainly have had more non-conference losses if they played a harder schedule too.

That does not completely mitigate the much easier conference schedule, lol. I mean, I get it. This is the life of a G5. BYU had to deal with this forever. If you want a top four seed, you have to cash in your opportunities against the truly elite teams. Also, Penn State played Pitt, Louisville and Kentucky in the non-conference, so it's not like they were just playing a bunch of cupcakes. Frankly, I find your entire argument to be rather disingenuous.

[horns1]

Nov 20, 2024 8:59:55 GMT -5 GBR said:

For Creighton to get into the conversation they need to jump #2 in the B1G. Only path I see is Purdue over PSU, Neb wins out. PSU #2 in the B1G with 4 losses VS Creighton's 2 losses would be a good conversation. Wisc with 6 losses at that point likely is out of the conversation.

ACC, really comes down to Stanford needing to lose at NCaro or at G-Tech but win VS Louisville along with a Louisville loss to Pitt. Gives both Louisville and Stanford 5 losses and would be a good conversation in comparison to Creighton. Stanford wins VS Wisc and Texas along with the Louisville head to head win VS Creighton just makes that a conversation.

I think if either or both happen, then Creighton has a 50% chance to get that 4 seed (or even the 3 seed if both occur). If neither happens then maybe a 10% chance. Hard to read the committee, you just don't know what they are thinking sometimes. If they do get one of the regionals, I think the San Diego's win at Stanford after that big debate over the 4/5 seed a few years ago likely has something to do with it.

Creighton needs Kansas to win out.  If Kansas doesn't climb into the RPI Top 10 (currently at #11), Creighton has zero wins against an RPI Top 10 team.  Penn State's win over RPI Top 3 Louisville is not going to lose its luster just because they lose to Purdue (a team they already beat once) and/or Nebraska.  The committee used that head-to-head win over Louisville to rank them one spot higher than the Cardinals in the first reveal; I thought Louisville's resume' was better than that of PSU, but the committee felt they were close enough that head-to-head should be the deciding factor.

I know it wasn't really tracked in the past as it's only been since last season (I think) that we actually heard the committee mention how much value they placed on wins over RPI Top 10 teams when ranking their top 10, but I'd be curious to know the last team to be awarded a Top 4 national seed with zero wins against an RPI Top 10 team.  It actually seems very logical that if you didn't beat an RPI Top 10 team, you don't have a claim to a Top 4 national seed.

[trojansc]

just a little history moment:

Everyone remembers the most recent San Diego travesty, but this one was WAY worse (though it was for a top 16 spot, not a top 4 spot)

Team A
RPI: #16
Record v T25: 3-3
Record v T50: 0-0
Wins: #7, #11, #12
Losses outside T25: #89, #97

Team B
RPI: #26
Record v T25: 3-7
Record v 26-50: 3-1
Wins: #2, #13, #15, #29(x2), #34
Losses outside T25: #34, #81

Team B hosted, Team A did not. Team B had an abysmal out of conference schedule that was not penalized (and this is why their RPI was so bad).

Team B only played two teams in the top 100 of the non-conference. They beat #57 Hofstra, lost to #81 Colorado.

[trianglevolleyball]

Are Texas A&M and TCU within the driving range? Seems like we could be headed for a cringe matchup between two of the most out of form teams in the country.

[trianglevolleyball]

Nov 20, 2024 19:30:01 GMT -5 trojansc said:

just a little history moment:

Everyone remembers the most recent San Diego travesty, but this one was WAY worse (though it was for a top 16 spot, not a top 4 spot)

Who are the teams? I can only remember Penn State getting seeded that low but they had a much stronger schedule with a buttload of top 25 opponents. Stanford, UNC OOC. Curious who else has gotten it with an RPI that low. That resume does look better than the 16 RPI team though, but I’m surprised no one in between those two has a stronger resume.

[n00b]

Nov 20, 2024 19:30:01 GMT -5 trojansc said:

just a little history moment:

Everyone remembers the most recent San Diego travesty, but this one was WAY worse (though it was for a top 16 spot, not a top 4 spot)

Team A
RPI: #16
Record v T25: 3-3
Record v T50: 0-0
Wins: #7, #11, #12
Losses outside T25: #89, #97

Team B
RPI: #26
Record v T25: 3-7
Record v 26-50: 3-1
Wins: #2, #13, #15, #29(x2), #34
Losses outside T25: #34, #81

Team B hosted, Team A did not. Team B had an abysmal out of conference schedule that was not penalized (and this is why their RPI was so bad).

Team B only played two teams in the top 100 of the non-conference. They beat #57 Hofstra, lost to #81 Colorado.

I'm still convinced that happened because of the regional ranking committees (influenced by a Top 5 Pablo).

[trojansc]

Nov 20, 2024 22:37:49 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

Nov 20, 2024 19:30:01 GMT -5 trojansc said:

just a little history moment:

Everyone remembers the most recent San Diego travesty, but this one was WAY worse (though it was for a top 16 spot, not a top 4 spot)

Who are the teams? I can only remember Penn State getting seeded that low but they had a much stronger schedule with a buttload of top 25 opponents. Stanford, UNC OOC. Curious who else has gotten it with an RPI that low. That resume does look better than the 16 RPI team though, but I’m surprised no one in between those two has a stronger resume.

You think PSU’s 3-7 record with a 10 spot worse RPI versus T25 teams is sooo much better than San Diego’s 3-3 record? Team A’s got a worse loss, one worse loss. They have extra T50 wins, but also if you consider Home/Away, San Diego’s was slightly more impressive, San Diego’s non-conf. also blew PSU away.

There were teams in between with stronger resume’s. Penn State got it because they were Penn State.

[trojansc]

Nov 20, 2024 22:39:21 GMT -5 n00b said:

Nov 20, 2024 19:30:01 GMT -5 trojansc said:

just a little history moment:

Everyone remembers the most recent San Diego travesty, but this one was WAY worse (though it was for a top 16 spot, not a top 4 spot)

Team A
RPI: #16
Record v T25: 3-3
Record v T50: 0-0
Wins: #7, #11, #12
Losses outside T25: #89, #97

Team B
RPI: #26
Record v T25: 3-7
Record v 26-50: 3-1
Wins: #2, #13, #15, #29(x2), #34
Losses outside T25: #34, #81

Team B hosted, Team A did not. Team B had an abysmal out of conference schedule that was not penalized (and this is why their RPI was so bad).

Team B only played two teams in the top 100 of the non-conference. They beat #57 Hofstra, lost to #81 Colorado.

I'm still convinced that happened because of the regional ranking committees (influenced by a Top 5 Pablo).

Top 25 Pablo teams have missed the tournament, unfortunately. Maybe you’re right though (which would be really dumb given that the Pablo could have been used).

But like using a RAC ranking to make it outweigh the other data by so much is… interesting.

Maybe they recognize Creighton’s >Penn state in Pablo this year!

[trianglevolleyball]

Nov 20, 2024 22:55:41 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 20, 2024 22:37:49 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

Who are the teams? I can only remember Penn State getting seeded that low but they had a much stronger schedule with a buttload of top 25 opponents. Stanford, UNC OOC. Curious who else has gotten it with an RPI that low. That resume does look better than the 16 RPI team though, but I’m surprised no one in between those two has a stronger resume.

You think PSU’s 3-7 record with a 10 spot worse RPI versus T25 teams is sooo much better than San Diego’s 10 spot better RPI? Team A’s got a worse loss, one worse loss. They have extra T50 wins, but also if you consider Home/Away, San Diego’s was slightly more impressive, San Diego’s non-conf. also blew PSU away.

There were teams in between with stronger resume’s. Penn State got it because they were Penn State.

I think it’s stronger looking at their schedules because of the common opponent wins over Stanford and Colorado, but how would I know that?

PSU played 11 seeded teams that year, and won three of those matches, including a top 4 seed. And Purdue and Ohio State were very close to seeds as well. I agreed that USD deserved it more but you don’t have to lie about PSU’s schedule by not mentioning two top 10 OOC opponents to make that point. What do you want PSU to be doing in non-con, they regularly schedule the presumptive winners of other P5 conferences. I get PSU is public enemy #1 but that’s just sloppy in blind resume comparisons.

[bbg95]

Nov 20, 2024 22:22:56 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

Are Texas A&M and TCU within the driving range? Seems like we could be headed for a cringe matchup between two of the most out of form teams in the country.

They're easily in driving distance of each other. Less than 200 miles. 

[trojansc]

Nov 20, 2024 23:06:05 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

Nov 20, 2024 22:55:41 GMT -5 trojansc said:

You think PSU’s 3-7 record with a 10 spot worse RPI versus T25 teams is sooo much better than San Diego’s 10 spot better RPI? Team A’s got a worse loss, one worse loss. They have extra T50 wins, but also if you consider Home/Away, San Diego’s was slightly more impressive, San Diego’s non-conf. also blew PSU away.

There were teams in between with stronger resume’s. Penn State got it because they were Penn State.

I think it’s stronger looking at their schedules because of the common opponent wins over Stanford and Colorado, but how would I know that?

PSU played 11 seeded teams that year, and won three of those matches, including a top 4 seed. And Purdue and Ohio State were very close to seeds as well. I agreed that USD deserved it more but you don’t have to lie about PSU’s schedule by not mentioning two top 10 OOC opponents to make that point. What do you want PSU to be doing in non-con, they regularly schedule the presumptive winners of other P5 conferences. I get PSU is public enemy #1 but that’s just sloppy in blind resume comparisons.

(I just deleted the post I wrote before this because I see where I made a mistake)

I mis-typed the part re: Penn State's non-conference, I see what you are saying now. I thought you were trying to argue that Penn State should be getting credit for their two losses to top 10 teams. They played four teams inside the top 100 - they only beat one re: non-conference. They only played two in the top 25(/50) and lost both. I accidentally wrote this as two of the top 100.

The point still stands that PSU only beat 1 of those 4 teams in the non-conf (losing to #8, #11). They beat #57 Hofstra and lost to #81 Colorado.

They scheduled 7 teams with an RPI of #138 or worse. That's really bad - and that's why their RPI was so low at #26.

Their non-conf S.O.S was #98 in the country.

[trojansc]

It was in my deleted post - but - I do want to write that I feel like as much as I complain - I feel pretty consistent about it.

I have argued for power 4 teams (UCLA, Syracuse, K-State, Pittsburgh) - and against mid-majors (VCU, Hawaii, Stephen F. Austin, Ball State) in my history of bracketology.

I feel like if I criticize a committee decision - it's rooted in data and not just joining a mob-mentality or trying to find something to complain about.

If anyone wants to look at the team sheets for that year, they are here:

s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/files/rpiarchive/archive/16%20VB%20Team%20Sheets%20thru%20Nov%2026.pdf