Bracketology (11/18)

[trianglevolleyball]

Nov 20, 2024 23:25:04 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 20, 2024 23:06:05 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

I think it’s stronger looking at their schedules because of the common opponent wins over Stanford and Colorado, but how would I know that?

PSU played 11 seeded teams that year, and won three of those matches, including a top 4 seed. And Purdue and Ohio State were very close to seeds as well. I agreed that USD deserved it more but you don’t have to lie about PSU’s schedule by not mentioning two top 10 OOC opponents to make that point. What do you want PSU to be doing in non-con, they regularly schedule the presumptive winners of other P5 conferences. I get PSU is public enemy #1 but that’s just sloppy in blind resume comparisons.

(I just deleted the post I wrote before this because I see where I made a mistake)

I mis-typed the part re: Penn State's non-conference, I see what you are saying now. I thought you were trying to argue that Penn State should be getting credit for their two losses to top 10 teams. They played four teams inside the top 100 - they only beat one re: non-conference. They only played two in the top 25(/50) and lost both. I accidentally wrote this as two of the top 100.

The point still stands that PSU only beat 1 of those 4 teams in the non-conf (losing to #8, #11). They beat #57 Hofstra and lost to #81 Colorado.

They scheduled 7 teams with an RPI of #138 or worse. That's really bad - and that's why their RPI was so low at #26.

Their non-conf S.O.S was #98 in the country.

I have no qualms with your edited post, I did think it was untruthful before.

And yes, I do think the Common Opponents are what would sway me. The SD win @ Stanford is arguably more impressive than a Home win against Minnesota paired with a loss to them , and they beat Colorado which PSU can’t say.

I’m not as compelled by SOS arguments, and in this case PSU had stronger wins and not as weak of losses. I do believe when two teams are that close in the margins, common opponents should be used.

I don’t think you’re biased against P5 teams. PSU is just a very easy target because they never schedule to game RPI, especially that #26 RPI year. But their resume is not as bad as people make it out to be, they would definitely be seeded this year.

[trojansc]

Nov 20, 2024 23:35:27 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

But their resume is not as bad as people make it out to be, they would definitely be seeded this year.

You think they would? I don't know. A #26 RPI team getting a seed was completely unprecedented (and hasn't happened since). I'll have to go through more data - but I think #21 is the lowest I've seen since ~2010.

When digging into at-larges - I found a few examples of the committee not being so strict to RPI, like 05 or 06 or something with teams in the low 60s getting an at-large bid (I think Clemson or Kentucky off top of my head).    

I don't think the Penn State profile is that bad, but I don't think if San Diego has the #26 RPI and that profile that they are getting it over Penn State with #16 RPI. Same thing with Miami-FL and Florida (2021).     

[trojansc]

Also - what a match:

-We can officially close the door on Minnesota's potential to host 1st/2nd rounds.
-Those who wanted to close the door on Wisconsin hosting a regional... not just yet!

[trianglevolleyball]

Nov 20, 2024 23:47:09 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 20, 2024 23:35:27 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

But their resume is not as bad as people make it out to be, they would definitely be seeded this year.

You think they would? I don't know. A #26 RPI team getting a seed was completely unprecedented (and hasn't happened since). I'll have to go through more data - but I think #21 is the lowest I've seen since ~2010.

When digging into at-larges - I found a few examples of the committee not being so strict to RPI, like 05 or 06 or something with teams in the low 60s getting an at-large bid (I think Clemson or Kentucky off top of my head).    

I don't think the Penn State profile is that bad, but I don't think if San Diego has the #26 RPI and that profile that they are getting it over Penn State with #16 RPI. Same thing with Miami-FL and Florida (2021).     

This year, I think so. A lot of the teams in the 10-20 range are low on wins over teams with higher RPIs than their own and PSU would own lots of common opponent analyses. PSU would be the only team other than SMU with a win over a top 2 team. But it’s hard to say because no one will ever have that PSU schedule again.

I doubt a team will ever play that hard of a conference schedule again, play so many seeded teams, have so many 2-3 losses, or have such a high Pablo. Unbalanced conference schedules prevent BIG teams from playing such tough schedules. San Diego wouldn’t have gotten the same attention if they had 26, their schedule doesn’t pop in the same way that Penn State’s did.

Funny enough, if Wucherer had hit hands on match point tonight, it would be the closest we’ve seen with such a bad RPI but objectively impressive competition and wins.

[bluepenquin]

I just ran Pablo SOS for the top 10 teams. I used 7515 rating as the standard - the current rating for Penn State. I don't think this has anything to do with bracketology, but I thought it was interesting in terms of who has really played a tough schedule. The expected w/l% for the schedule below.

1. Louisville - .700
2. Stanford - .721
3. Nebraska - .729
4. Wisconsin - .729
5. SMU - .765
6. Penn State - .772
7. Texas - .785
8. Pittsburgh - .790
9. Creighton - .864
10. Arizona State - .872

The ACC holds up very well with the Big Ten this season.

[boxcariii]

Nov 20, 2024 17:22:00 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

did we ever come to a conclusion if sokol is even allowed to host a regional?

having it in CHI/Ralston/Baxter mitigates most of the advantage Sokol offers anyways

I don't know if there was a conclusion, per se. What was done is someone looked up the box scores for Pitt's regional last year and noted the official attendance numbers were below the the 3k requirement. 

It was 2,879 in both matches. Links below. 

The capacity that I can find quickly is 4,122, but someone mentioned it was renovated recently and likely holds less. I'm going out on a limb here not really knowing more, but probably a safe assumption that it was packed/sold out for Regional semis and finals, despite the disparity in attendance vs capacity (whatever that actually is now). 

pittsburghpanthers.com/sports/womens-volleyball/stats/2023/washington-state/boxscore/14180

pittsburghpanthers.com/sports/womens-volleyball/stats/2023/louisville/boxscore/14181

P.S. I agree. If Creighton can not host at Sokol, I don't think you bother, even with the other facilities in the area. Ralston would be nice for me though. I can stumble home in 10 minutes from there. 

[bluepenquin]

Nov 20, 2024 23:50:35 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Also - what a match:

-We can officially close the door on Minnesota's potential to host 1st/2nd rounds.
-Those who wanted to close the door on Wisconsin hosting a regional... not just yet!

As #14 Pablo and Evollve - Minnesota was already going to be the unseeded team no one wants to face in the 2nd round.

I think Wisconsin's chances of being a regional host is a long shot.  

[volleyball90]

Nov 21, 2024 10:05:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 20, 2024 23:50:35 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Also - what a match:

-We can officially close the door on Minnesota's potential to host 1st/2nd rounds.
-Those who wanted to close the door on Wisconsin hosting a regional... not just yet!

As #14 Pablo and Evollve - Minnesota was already going to be the unseeded team no one wants to face in the 2nd round.

I think Wisconsin's chances of being a regional host is a long shot.  

Its based on their chances of beating Nebraska. If Wisconsin wins out, they are hosting. 

[GBR]

Nov 21, 2024 10:05:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 20, 2024 23:50:35 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Also - what a match:

-We can officially close the door on Minnesota's potential to host 1st/2nd rounds.
-Those who wanted to close the door on Wisconsin hosting a regional... not just yet!

As #14 Pablo and Evollve - Minnesota was already going to be the unseeded team no one wants to face in the 2nd round.

I think Wisconsin's chances of being a regional host is a long shot.  

Not many things have to happen, but a few yet.  Purdue beating PSU tonight would be a big step.  Would help Creighton a bunch as well.  A PSU win sets up Neb @ PSU for the B1G title no matter what happens in the Wisc/Neb match.  Baring a big upset.  Wash @ PSU on Sunday might be a trap match for them.  A lot of volleyball left in the next 10 days.  Might be another upset or two out there nobody thinks can happen.  Almost happened last night.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 21, 2024 11:38:26 GMT -5 volleyball90 said:

Nov 21, 2024 10:05:38 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

As #14 Pablo and Evollve - Minnesota was already going to be the unseeded team no one wants to face in the 2nd round.

I think Wisconsin's chances of being a regional host is a long shot.  

Its based on their chances of beating Nebraska. If Wisconsin wins out, they are hosting. 

I don't think that is the case.  I think it would take more things to happen in order to get past Stanford, Penn State, or Louisville and possibly Creigthon.

[trianglevolleyball]

Wisconsin would need at least one, if not both of the ACC teams to absolutely collapse. So Louisville would have to lose virginia and/or Stanford would have to lose @unc or @ga Tech. Losses to each other/Pitt probably won’t be enough to make up for the H2H wins against Wisconsin.

[volleyball90]

Nov 21, 2024 12:13:19 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 21, 2024 11:38:26 GMT -5 volleyball90 said:

Its based on their chances of beating Nebraska. If Wisconsin wins out, they are hosting. 

I don't think that is the case.  I think it would take more things to happen in order to get past Stanford, Penn State, or Louisville and possibly Creigthon.

I am assuming Nebraska beats Penn state in this scenario. 

Honestly I think Creighton's host bit is very much at large. 

Nebraska and Pitt will host. Louisville can snag a spot by beating Stanford and Pitt. Likewise, Stanford can get a spot by beating Louisville. 

If Nebraska loses to Wisconsin but otherwise wins out, Pitt wins out, and Stanford wins out. I think the hosts are Pitt, Nebraska, Stanford, and Wisconsin. 

Wisconsin beating Nebraska is the most unlikely of these scenarios, that's why I made my statement.

[volleyball90]

Nov 21, 2024 12:20:33 GMT -5 trianglevolleyball said:

Wisconsin would need at least one, if not both of the ACC teams to absolutely collapse. So Louisville would have to lose virginia and/or Stanford would have to lose @unc or @ga Tech. Losses to each other/Pitt probably won’t be enough to make up for the H2H wins against Wisconsin.

Louisville could easily drop 2 before end of year. That is going to take them out cause recently bias. 

[stanfordvb]

Nov 21, 2024 12:26:44 GMT -5 volleyball90 said:

Nov 21, 2024 12:13:19 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I don't think that is the case.  I think it would take more things to happen in order to get past Stanford, Penn State, or Louisville and possibly Creigthon.

Nebraska and Pitt will host. Louisville can snag a spot by beating Stanford and Pitt. Likewise, Stanford can get a spot by beating Louisville. .

Louisville does not need to beat both Stanford and Pitt to secure a spot, they just need to beat one of them. Even if they lose to both of them they should still have a good shot at getting the 4 seed.

[volleyball90]

Nov 21, 2024 13:41:04 GMT -5 stanfordvb said:

Nov 21, 2024 12:26:44 GMT -5 volleyball90 said:

Nebraska and Pitt will host. Louisville can snag a spot by beating Stanford and Pitt. Likewise, Stanford can get a spot by beating Louisville. .

Louisville does not need to beat both Stanford and Pitt to secure a spot, they just need to beat one of them. Even if they lose to both of them they should still have a good shot at getting the 4 seed.

Yeah you are right. I was wrong.