Bracketology (11/18)

[bluepenquin]

Nov 21, 2024 13:41:04 GMT -5 stanfordvb said:

Nov 21, 2024 12:26:44 GMT -5 volleyball90 said:

Nebraska and Pitt will host. Louisville can snag a spot by beating Stanford and Pitt. Likewise, Stanford can get a spot by beating Louisville. .

Louisville does not need to beat both Stanford and Pitt to secure a spot, they just need to beat one of them. Even if they lose to both of them they should still have a good shot at getting the 4 seed.

Yeah - I think they are still very likely to get there even if they lose to both Pitt and Stanford.  

They would still have a better RPI (#3) than anything Wisconsin would have if they were to win out.  And they would hold the h2h against Wisconsin.  They would have a better record, quality wins, etc...

If Stanford and Penn State win out - and Louisville loses 2 more (Pitt and Stanford) - then it becomes interesting between PSU/Stanford/Louisville for those last 2 spots.

[trianglevolleyball]

Louisville just has such a remarkable schedule, 10 top 10 opponents and currently sitting at 5-3. And a handle of other Top 25 victories.

Worst they could be at is 4-5 if Kentucky drops out but that would entail Missouri solidifying a seed which also looks good for them.

I just don’t see them getting jumped by anyone other than PSU or maybe Creighton (but struggle to see the rationale) even if they do lose both of their final matches. I don’t see the committee dinging them for a home loss to #1 RPI and an away loss to a #6 RPI just because both losses were the last week. I think Stanford needs Louisville to choke this week because otherwise their resumes are identical with the exception of Stanford’s Miami loss.

[FTLOG]

Yeah, Nebraska and Pitt are locks to host. Louisville almost feels like a lock, though if they lose to both Pitt and Stanford (not to mention anyone else), then I guess we'll see. For the 4th spot, I think it's Penn State's if they win out; however, if they lose, and if Stanford wins out, then I think Stanford might sneak in and take it. If both PSU and Stanford lose, then I think it's Creighton's (maybe Wisconsin's, if they win out?).

The last time 3 teams from the same conference hosted a regional was... 2016 (Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin)? Has there been one since then?

[bbg95]

Nov 21, 2024 17:21:23 GMT -5 FTLOG said:

Yeah, Nebraska and Pitt are locks to host. Louisville almost feels like a lock, though if they lose to both Pitt and Stanford (not to mention anyone else), then I guess we'll see. For the 4th spot, I think it's Penn State's if they win out; however, if they lose, and if Stanford wins out, then I think Stanford might sneak in and take it. If both PSU and Stanford lose, then I think it's Creighton's (maybe Wisconsin's, if they win out?).

The last time 3 teams from the same conference hosted a regional was... 2016 (Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin)? Has there been one since then?

Penn State doesn't need to win out. If their only remaining loss is Nebraska, they're good.

[trojansc]

Notice re: figstats/Unofficial RPI

There may be slight delays. I see that today's matches aren't reflected in the today's games part of figstats. However, I see some results from conference tournaments from the past couple days, so I don't imagine it will take long.

But it could cause more shakeups than one might expect especially for teams like: Yale, Wright State, UT-Arlington, GA Southern, Appalachian State, Arkansas State, SE Louisiana, WKU, FGCU, Towson, South Florida, Rice. Those teams could move a decent amount or stay put - but also the more teams moving in/out of Top 50 RPI could have some effects on others.

[horns1]

Louisville's resume' is just too good not to host even if they lose to Pittsburgh. Their match at Stanford is the afternoon before the bracket is announced on December 1; I doubt the outcome of that match will matter (to Louisville hosting), even though it's an important match. I think this committee is focusing more on elite wins and not penalizing for losses (and that is why SMU was #7 in the first reveal).

[jwvolley]

Is it possible for Louisville to knock Pitt down to 3 if Louisville beats Pitt and Stanford?

They'd have the outright ACC conference title, way more top 10 wins I think (7 versus only 3 for pitt?), idk whose rpi would be better in this scenario, the h2h would be split between them.

[trojansc]

Nov 21, 2024 18:43:57 GMT -5 jwvolley said:

Is it possible for Louisville to knock Pitt down to 3 if Louisville beats Pitt and Stanford?

They'd have the outright ACC conference title, way more top 10 wins I think (7 versus only 3 for pitt?), idk whose rpi would be better in this scenario, the h2h would be split between them.

I think it's possible for sure. Louisville would have the better RPI.

[trojansc]

Washington or Rutgers are now the only teams who could probably prevent Penn State from hosting a regional. They would want to beat Nebraska to be completely confident on Selection Sunday.

[jwvolley]

Nov 21, 2024 19:39:37 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Washington or Rutgers are now the only teams who could probably prevent Penn State from hosting a regional. They would want to beat Nebraska to be completely confident on Selection Sunday.

Yea this ended the long-shot Wisconsin regional hopes probably IMO. 

[trojansc]

Nov 21, 2024 20:14:31 GMT -5 jwvolley said:

Nov 21, 2024 19:39:37 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Washington or Rutgers are now the only teams who could probably prevent Penn State from hosting a regional. They would want to beat Nebraska to be completely confident on Selection Sunday.

Yea this ended the long-shot Wisconsin regional hopes probably IMO. 

It would still be interesting. Wisconsin would have the better RPI + H2H if they win out + PSU loses to Nebraska. Penn State would have common opponents advantage and not as many nor as bad of losses.

[trojansc]

Arizona continues to take care of business.

They've got 3 left: vs. Iowa State, vs. UCF, at Texas Tech

[bbg95]

Nov 21, 2024 21:33:25 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Arizona continues to take care of business.

They've got 3 left: vs. Iowa State, vs. UCF, at Texas Tech

No excuse for Arizona to lose to any of those teams. Here's hoping they win out.

[trojansc]

Pacific takes set 2 over Loyola Marymount to even up the match.

USC would really like LMU to pull out that match - LMU is on the cusp of being a Top 25 team.

[volleynerd]

Cincinnati up 2-1 on BYU....

Cougars faint hosting hopes are in jeopardy