Bracketology (11/18)

[maigrey]

Nov 21, 2024 22:48:13 GMT -5 volleynerd said:

Cincinnati up 2-1 on BYU....

Cougars faint hosting hopes are in jeopardy

But they'll still be ranked on Monday! 🤣🤣

[hammer]

Nov 21, 2024 23:18:06 GMT -5 maigrey said:

Nov 21, 2024 22:48:13 GMT -5 volleynerd said:

Cincinnati up 2-1 on BYU....

Cougars faint hosting hopes are in jeopardy

But they'll still be ranked on Monday! 🤣🤣

Yup, along with GT

[trojansc]

Bad news for BYU.

LMU losing is bad news for USC.

[huskersoftroy]

Nov 21, 2024 23:40:51 GMT -5 trojansc said:

LMU losing is bad news for USC.

USC practically only gets bad news so this checks out 👍

[iluvvb]

Nov 21, 2024 9:28:56 GMT -5 boxcariii said:

Nov 20, 2024 17:22:00 GMT -5 avid 2.0 said:

did we ever come to a conclusion if sokol is even allowed to host a regional?

having it in CHI/Ralston/Baxter mitigates most of the advantage Sokol offers anyways

I don't know if there was a conclusion, per se. What was done is someone looked up the box scores for Pitt's regional last year and noted the official attendance numbers were below the the 3k requirement. 

It was 2,879 in both matches. Links below. 

The capacity that I can find quickly is 4,122, but someone mentioned it was renovated recently and likely holds less. I'm going out on a limb here not really knowing more, but probably a safe assumption that it was packed/sold out for Regional semis and finals, despite the disparity in attendance vs capacity (whatever that actually is now). 

pittsburghpanthers.com/sports/womens-volleyball/stats/2023/washington-state/boxscore/14180

pittsburghpanthers.com/sports/womens-volleyball/stats/2023/louisville/boxscore/14181

P.S. I agree. If Creighton can not host at Sokol, I don't think you bother, even with the other facilities in the area. Ralston would be nice for me though. I can stumble home in 10 minutes from there. 

[iluvvb]

Pitt's attendance last year was due to them having to play in the Field House. The Peterson Events Center was being used by the basketball team, who has first dibs on scheduling. I think there should not be scheduling issues this year if Pitt gets to host.

[trojansc]

Florida up to #15 in RPI 👀

Do they really want to play that non-conference match with UCF?

[boxcariii]

Nov 22, 2024 0:26:19 GMT -5 iluvvb said:

Pitt's attendance last year was due to them having to play in the Field House. The Peterson Events Center was being used by the basketball team, who has first dibs on scheduling. I think there should not be scheduling issues this year if Pitt gets to host.

It was only to point out that the 3k minimum seems to have a bit of a leniency, nothing else.

It's moot for Creighton after last night anyways. The slim hope they had at hosting, got even slimmer/non-existent.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 22, 2024 0:46:22 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Florida up to #15 in RPI 👀

Do they really want to play that non-conference match with UCF?

No - it is a total RPI killer and something I have been thinking about.

Per Futures - if Florida wins their last 3, their likely RPI rank is ~ #18.  Marquette is most likely to pass them - and Dayton is going to still finish ahead of them - so #18 RPI could get it done.  But still could end up with a worse RPI than Purdue, Oregon, Missouri, or TCU who would all be in contention for a host.  At this point - I am going to assume that Utah is probably 'RPI safe' with their remaining schedule.

[bluepenquin]

Some RPI disconnects (between Futures and Figstats).

Purdue - #15 in Futures vs. #19 in current: They play USC and Oregon and Washington on the road. This kind of schedule can literally be between 3-0 and 0-3. The average opponent w/l% is .723 (which is very good) - plus any wins will produce bonus points. By my calculations - win 2 of 3 and they are in. Lose 2 of 3 and they are out. It is probably that simple.

[bluepenquin]

TCU - #19 in Futures vs. #16 Current.

TCU continues with a horrible RPI schedule of Texas Tech and West Virginia and Cincy on the road. That is an average of .429 opponent w/l% with no bonus opportunities. If they win out - they would end up with an average RPI of #17 or #18 depending on where Marquette ends up.

[bluepenquin]

Oregon - #16 in Futures vs. #18 Current.

Remaining schedule is Purdue and then Michigan and UCLA on the road. Average w/l% of .634, which is better than average for them (Michigan is actually a good team to be playing down the stretch). I think they probably are 'in' even with a loss to Purdue (and win the other 2 matches). They would have an even better shot if they beat Purdue, then lose 1 of those others. Lose 2 of 3 and they are out.

[bluepenquin]

Missouri #18 in Futures vs. #20 Current.

Missouri finishes with Kentucky and Auburn at home and Ole Miss and Mississippi State on the road. Combined w/l is .583 - which is a bit of a drag on their RPI. Futures is more bullish on MU because they have them with a 55% chance of beating Kentucky.

I think their road is very simple. They win out and they are in and lose 1 and they are out. I think wins over Texas and Kentucky would be sufficient for them to go along with a strong RPI.

[bluepenquin]

USC - no disconnect here - Futures and Current have them at #21

Remaining schedule is Iowa and then Purdue and Washington on the road. .605 opponent which is a slight drag for them.

Win all 3 (which will be difficult) and they would be in. They may still have a shot with just 2 wins (although lack of volume in T25 wins could end up being an issue for them w/o a win against Purdue).

[bluepenquin]

Georgia Tech #20 in Futures and #22 Current.

Remaining schedule is Stanford at home and Florida State, Miami, and Pittsburgh on the road. .784 opponent w/l% is fantastic and provides a ton of upside for GT. The problem - Pablo thinks their avg remaining wins is only 1.4 - these are 4 tough matches left and they could lose all 4.

If they were to just to Stanford and Pitt - their average RPI would be #17 - which certainly puts them in the ballpark for a seed. However - they are rather short on T25 wins - hanging on BYU. If they win 2 of their final 4 and 1 of them is either Stanford or Pitt - that would be huge for them, and I think that would put them over the top.