bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 22, 2024 8:31:00 GMT -5
Baylor #22 in Futures and #17 Current.
The schedule is bad for them - Houston at home and Cincy and West Virginia on the road. .422 opponent schedule.
If they win out - their average RPI would only #20 - which probably isn't going to be good enough. They do have the Arizona State win and a split with TCU. But they also lost to both Utah and BYU. I think they are going to need a lot of help to get there for a seed.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,303
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 22, 2024 8:34:01 GMT -5
Utah - Just two matches left, Cincy and at Iowa State. A loss to Iowa State could make things interesting for them - but I think that would still probably keep them in for a seed.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,303
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 22, 2024 8:50:43 GMT -5
To put a bow on this from my perspective and looking at Futures for T16 seed:
Lock (10): Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Stanford, SMU, Arizona State, Kentucky, and Creighton.
Likely (3): Texas, Kansas, Utah. These teams just need to win 1 more match.
Bubble (7): Purdue, Oregon, USC, Missouri, Florida, Georgia Tech, TCU. 7 teams battling for the likely final 3 tickets.
Longshot (3): Dayton, Marquette, Baylor.
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Post by maigrey on Nov 22, 2024 9:30:30 GMT -5
Pitt's attendance last year was due to them having to play in the Field House. The Peterson Events Center was being used by the basketball team, who has first dibs on scheduling. I think there should not be scheduling issues this year if Pitt gets to host. It was only to point out that the 3k minimum seems to have a bit of a leniency, nothing else. It's moot for Creighton after last night anyways. The slim hope they had at hosting, got even slimmer/non-existent. Wait, what happened last night that made this moot? The PSU win? |
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Post by horns1 on Nov 22, 2024 10:08:11 GMT -5
To put a bow on this from my perspective and looking at Futures for T16 seed: Lock (10): Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Stanford, SMU, Arizona State, Kentucky, and Creighton. Likely (3): Texas, Kansas, Utah. These teams just need to win 1 more match. Bubble (7): Purdue, Oregon, USC, Missouri, Florida, Georgia Tech, TCU. 7 teams battling for the likely final 3 tickets. Longshot (3): Dayton, Marquette, Baylor. Not that the committee should factor in geography when awarding the Top 16 seeds/sub-regionals, but with SMU and Texas most certainly hosting in the state of Texas, that could hurt the chances of TCU (just 35 miles from SMU) and Baylor (90 miles from Texas). Florida is 9-4 in RPI Top 50 wins; that dwarfs the rest of the other contenders. I'd say they win out and they host. If Mizzou wins out and beats Kentucky to claim a share of the SEC title, I think they will host. Georgia Tech not likely to host unless they win at Pittsburgh or at home against Stanford. |
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,303
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 22, 2024 10:29:08 GMT -5
To put a bow on this from my perspective and looking at Futures for T16 seed: Lock (10): Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Stanford, SMU, Arizona State, Kentucky, and Creighton. Likely (3): Texas, Kansas, Utah. These teams just need to win 1 more match. Bubble (7): Purdue, Oregon, USC, Missouri, Florida, Georgia Tech, TCU. 7 teams battling for the likely final 3 tickets. Longshot (3): Dayton, Marquette, Baylor. Florida is 9-4 in RPI Top 50 wins; that dwarfs the rest of the other contenders. I'd say they win out and they host. They may very well end up losing 3 of those T50 wins with Arkansas and Auburn. Their T25 w/l% doesn't set them apart from the other contenders - and their best RPI win is Missouri. I would guess this would be the least among those bubble teams. |
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Post by horns1 on Nov 22, 2024 10:43:18 GMT -5
Florida is 9-4 in RPI Top 50 wins; that dwarfs the rest of the other contenders. I'd say they win out and they host. They may very well end up losing 3 of those T50 wins with Arkansas and Auburn. Their T25 w/l% doesn't set them apart from the other contenders - and their best RPI win is Missouri. I would guess this would be the least among those bubble teams. That makes sense; even if Auburn and Arkansas dropped out of the RPI Top 50, that leaves Florida at 6-4; still right in line with the other sub-regional host contenders. Florida really needs Texas A&M to remain in the RPI Top 25 (currently at #25). I did not realize Purdue's resume' only included a record of 4-6 against RPI Top 50 teams; that's on the low end of wins compared to the other contenders. Winner of their match at Oregon probably hosts as that will elevate one of them to 3 wins against RPI Top 25 teams. |
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Post by bbg95 on Nov 22, 2024 10:48:09 GMT -5
It was only to point out that the 3k minimum seems to have a bit of a leniency, nothing else. It's moot for Creighton after last night anyways. The slim hope they had at hosting, got even slimmer/non-existent. Wait, what happened last night that made this moot? The PSU win? Correct. I guess Penn State could still lose one of their non-Nebraska matches. I wouldn't count on it. |
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Post by houstonbear15 on Nov 22, 2024 11:29:33 GMT -5
Baylor #22 in Futures and #17 Current. The schedule is bad for them - Houston at home and Cincy and West Virginia on the road. .422 opponent schedule. If they win out - their average RPI would only #20 - which probably isn't going to be good enough. They do have the Arizona State win and a split with TCU. But they also lost to both Utah and BYU. I think they are going to need a lot of help to get there for a seed. The bad 3 match stretch on the road (TCU-BYU-Utah) is really holding Baylor back, especially with how home-heavy their schedule was. The top 10 win + no bad losses looks good on the resume, but the RPI isn’t favorable. It’s too bad they couldn’t finish off that match against Wisconsin when they had 3 match points. What a difference that win could’ve made for Baylor’s post season. |
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,303
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Post by bluepenquin on Nov 22, 2024 12:13:49 GMT -5
If: Stanford wins out, Louisville loses to Stanford and Pittsburgh, Penn State loses to Nebraska. Here would be the projected resumes:
Louisville: 25-5, #3 in RPI
Key Wins: Stanford (4), Creighton (5), SMU (7), Wisconsin (8), Kentucky (10), Georgia Tech (19), Missouri (20)
Losses: Nebraska (1), Pittsburgh (2), Pittsburgh (2), Stanford (4), Penn State (6)
Stanford: 25-4, #4 in RPI
Key Wins: Louisville (3), SMU (7), Wisconsin (8), Kentucky (10), Texas (11), Marquette (17), Georgia Tech (19), Georgia Tech (19)
Losses: Nebraska (1), Pittsburgh (2), Louisville (3), Miami (38)
Penn State: 28-3, #6 in RPI
Key Wins: Louisville (3), Kentucky (10), Purdue (15, Purdue (15), Oregon (16), USC (21).
Losses: Nebraska (1), Pittsburgh (2), Wisconsin (8).
Which 2 would be regional hosts?
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Post by braceminn on Nov 22, 2024 12:16:32 GMT -5
To put a bow on this from my perspective and looking at Futures for T16 seed: Lock (10): Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Stanford, SMU, Arizona State, Kentucky, and Creighton. Likely (3): Texas, Kansas, Utah. These teams just need to win 1 more match. Bubble (7): Purdue, Oregon, USC, Missouri, Florida, Georgia Tech, TCU. 7 teams battling for the likely final 3 tickets. Longshot (3): Dayton, Marquette, Baylor. Minnesota has no chance of hosting? |
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Post by trianglevolleyball on Nov 22, 2024 12:24:08 GMT -5
I think Georgia Tech still sneaks in with the BYU and Florida H2Hs as long as they win at FSU and Miami. FSU and UNC could still finish top 25. UCLA loss is bad but the rest are to top 10 teams. Atlanta and Tallahassee are within driving distance, so regardless we know we’re going to see another Ga Tech/Florida matchup.
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Post by bbg95 on Nov 22, 2024 12:30:49 GMT -5
If: Stanford wins out, Louisville loses to Stanford and Pittsburgh, Penn State loses to Nebraska. Here would be the projected resumes: Louisville: 25-5, #3 in RPI Key Wins: Stanford (4), Creighton (5), SMU (7), Wisconsin (8), Kentucky (10), Georgia Tech (19), Missouri (20) Losses: Nebraska (1), Pittsburgh (2), Pittsburgh (2), Stanford (4), Penn State (6) Stanford: 25-4, #4 in RPI Key Wins: Louisville (3), SMU (7), Wisconsin (8), Kentucky (10), Texas (11), Marquette (17), Georgia Tech (19), Georgia Tech (19) Losses: Nebraska (1), Pittsburgh (2), Louisville (3), Miami (38) Penn State: 28-3, #6 in RPI Key Wins: Louisville (3), Kentucky (10), Purdue (15, Purdue (15), Oregon (16), USC (21). Losses: Nebraska (1), Pittsburgh (2), Wisconsin (8). Which 2 would be regional hosts? I think Louisville would for sure get one. Penn State and Stanford would be very close. Hopefully, Louisville just takes care of business again. |
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Post by bbg95 on Nov 22, 2024 12:33:22 GMT -5
To put a bow on this from my perspective and looking at Futures for T16 seed: Lock (10): Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Stanford, SMU, Arizona State, Kentucky, and Creighton. Likely (3): Texas, Kansas, Utah. These teams just need to win 1 more match. Bubble (7): Purdue, Oregon, USC, Missouri, Florida, Georgia Tech, TCU. 7 teams battling for the likely final 3 tickets. Longshot (3): Dayton, Marquette, Baylor. Minnesota has no chance of hosting? Not if the committee still cares about RPI. They're currently 28th. Even if the committee uses KPI heavily, that's even worse, as they're 35th. |
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Post by c4ndlelight on Nov 22, 2024 12:46:22 GMT -5
Purdue / Oregon is kind of a play for a seed match at this point, no?
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