Penultimate Bracketology (11/24)

[katn]

Nov 25, 2024 16:21:53 GMT -5 GBR said:

My guess is the committee will surprise us all. I know Texas beat Kentucky twice, but a Kentucky win over Mizzou this week, they win the SEC outright. Texas at 18-6, Kentucky at 20-7. Texas only playing 24 matches this year (not sure I have seen any other teams with this few), wouldn't shock me to see Kentucky 1 spot up on Texas when the bracket comes out. If Pitt/Neb do win out, then it is an interesting conversation for 3-7.

texas only played kentucky once...texas usually schedules fewer non-conference matches (this is not new, maybe this exact # of matches is different)...hoping mizzou can pull the upset over the cats 🤞

[horns1]

Nov 25, 2024 16:21:53 GMT -5 GBR said:

My guess is the committee will surprise us all. I know Texas beat Kentucky twice, but a Kentucky win over Mizzou this week, they win the SEC outright. Texas at 18-6, Kentucky at 20-7. Texas only playing 24 matches this year (not sure I have seen any other teams with this few), wouldn't shock me to see Kentucky 1 spot up on Texas when the bracket comes out. If Pitt/Neb do win out, then it is an interesting conversation for 3-7.

Just once in a sweep at Kentucky.  

Yes, not sure what the committee will do when looking at Texas few matches that resulted in less than 20 wins.  

If Kentucky wins at Mizzou, their RPI will definitely stay higher than Texas', IMO.

[Kearney Kingston]

Six of Arizona State’s eight best wins are two each over Arizona, BYU, and Utah. Signature victory is home win over Kansas.

[outofrotation]

Nov 25, 2024 16:38:11 GMT -5 Kearney Kingston said:

Six of Arizona State’s eight best wins are two each over Arizona, BYU, and Utah. Signature victory is home win over Kansas.

To this point, what is the big 12s best out of conference win?

[horns1]

Nov 25, 2024 16:35:22 GMT -5 katn said:

Nov 25, 2024 16:21:53 GMT -5 GBR said:

My guess is the committee will surprise us all. I know Texas beat Kentucky twice, but a Kentucky win over Mizzou this week, they win the SEC outright. Texas at 18-6, Kentucky at 20-7. Texas only playing 24 matches this year (not sure I have seen any other teams with this few), wouldn't shock me to see Kentucky 1 spot up on Texas when the bracket comes out. If Pitt/Neb do win out, then it is an interesting conversation for 3-7.

texas only played kentucky once...texas usually schedules fewer non-conference matches (this is not new, maybe this exact # of matches is different)...hoping mizzou can pull the upset over the cats 🤞

Last year Texas played 26 matches in the regular season; this season it was only 24 matches.  Last year's record of 22-4 doesn't stand out like a sore thumb like this season's best possible 18-6 regular season record.  In a few college sports, there's something about that 20-win milestone that just looks better to the eye than a win total in the teens.

Texas' RPI has remained where it is (no lower than 12/13) partially because only 3 non-conference or conference opponent has a current RPI ranking between 101-150.


ncaastats.figstats.net/teamsheet.phtml/Texas

[bborr]

So 3-7 is Louisville, Penn State, Stanford, Creighton and Wisconsin in some order to be determined. Who gets #8 — SMU, Arizona State, or Purdue?

[c4ndlelight]

Nov 25, 2024 17:05:16 GMT -5 bborr said:

So 3-7 is Louisville, Penn State, Stanford, Creighton and Wisconsin in some order to be determined. Who gets #8 — SMU, Arizona State, or Purdue?

100% SMU.

[horns1]

Nov 25, 2024 17:05:16 GMT -5 bborr said:

So 3-7 is Louisville, Penn State, Stanford, Creighton and Wisconsin in some order to be determined. Who gets #8 — SMU, Arizona State, or Purdue?

Purdue's RPI is currently 16.  They aren't vaulting to the national #8 seed with only three RPI Top 25 wins (although that count can increase if they win at Oregon).

[trojansc]

I don't see Purdue inserting itself that high with talks of Wisconsin, ASU, and SMU. I think they are separated below, but it's debatable on how they view SMU/Wisconsin/ASU. I lean not ASU in that grouping - but we'll see.

[redcard🏐]

Nov 25, 2024 16:39:27 GMT -5 outofrotation said:

Nov 25, 2024 16:38:11 GMT -5 Kearney Kingston said:

Six of Arizona State’s eight best wins are two each over Arizona, BYU, and Utah. Signature victory is home win over Kansas.

To this point, what is the big 12s best out of conference win?

Off the top of my head I remember Purdue, Marquette and Minnesota, a couple of times. But think they’ve mostly just beat up on each other, which has been fun to see.

[trojansc]

Nov 25, 2024 14:23:08 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

FWIW, I do think there is some genuine debate for Wisconsin as the 6 seed over Creighton. Even right now, on the metrics, I don't think Creighton is a shoe in. Right now Wisconsin has wins over 8 different top 25 RPI teams and that's probably going to hold firm by time the committee first meets to build the bracket on Friday, and it may increase by one if Minnesota gets a win @ Illinois. Meanwhile, Creighton currently has 5 top 25 wins, and one of those - Missouri, could very likely fall out of the top 25 by time the committee meets to build the bracket on Friday. If the first nitty gritty the committee sees has Wisconsin at 8 or 9 top 25 wins while Creighton only has 4, that's a pretty big gap. Creighton doesn't hold a head to head or common opponents advantage. Wisconsin also overtakes Creighton in the SOS. Right now, the aggregate RPI is #6 Creighton and #7 Wisconsin, but that could very well flip by Friday given their opponent top 25 outlook (i.e. Minnesota moves in and Missouri moves out). Creighton has a few spot advantage in KPI. I dunno.... even without a Creighton loss to Marquette in the BE, if Minnesota moves in to the top 25 and Missouri moves out of the top 25 by Friday, I think a reasonable argument could be made for Wisconsin at #6.

Creighton has six top 25 wins by my count: Kansas, Purdue, Marquette(x2), USC, Missouri. 

For Missouri to fall out of the top 25 by the timeline of Friday, I think  FSU must beat SMU, Missouri must lose to Kentucky, AND Georgia Tech has to beat Stanford.

I think it would be a big stretch. I'll have to check on the RPI numbers - but it wasn't looking good for Minnesota to move into the top 25 even if they win out.     

[trojansc]

Non-Conference Report: stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/non_conference_ranking_reports/40669

If anyone wants to check out non-conference strength of schedule rankings, click above. Then filter:

Opponent Success = Non-Conference S.O.S ranking.

[ay2013]

Nov 25, 2024 17:37:57 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 25, 2024 14:23:08 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

FWIW, I do think there is some genuine debate for Wisconsin as the 6 seed over Creighton. Even right now, on the metrics, I don't think Creighton is a shoe in. Right now Wisconsin has wins over 8 different top 25 RPI teams and that's probably going to hold firm by time the committee first meets to build the bracket on Friday, and it may increase by one if Minnesota gets a win @ Illinois. Meanwhile, Creighton currently has 5 top 25 wins, and one of those - Missouri, could very likely fall out of the top 25 by time the committee meets to build the bracket on Friday. If the first nitty gritty the committee sees has Wisconsin at 8 or 9 top 25 wins while Creighton only has 4, that's a pretty big gap. Creighton doesn't hold a head to head or common opponents advantage. Wisconsin also overtakes Creighton in the SOS. Right now, the aggregate RPI is #6 Creighton and #7 Wisconsin, but that could very well flip by Friday given their opponent top 25 outlook (i.e. Minnesota moves in and Missouri moves out). Creighton has a few spot advantage in KPI. I dunno.... even without a Creighton loss to Marquette in the BE, if Minnesota moves in to the top 25 and Missouri moves out of the top 25 by Friday, I think a reasonable argument could be made for Wisconsin at #6.

Creighton has six top 25 wins by my count: Kansas, Purdue, Marquette(x2), USC, Missouri. 

For Missouri to fall out of the top 25 by the timeline of Friday, I think  FSU must beat SMU, Missouri must lose to Kentucky, AND Georgia Tech has to beat Stanford.

I think it would be a big stretch. I'll have to check on the RPI numbers - but it wasn't looking good for Minnesota to move into the top 25 even if they win out.     

Re the top 25 wins, I wasn't counting total, I was counting different teams (so Marquette only counted once)

[bruinsgold]

So what do I need to do to avoid Flo and Grace?

Hope Flordia gets a 4-seed and the committee sticks to geography? For someone else in the ACC to lose? SEC? Big XII?!

WHAT CANDLES DO I NEED TO BUY FROM BATH & BODY WORKS TO END THIS MISERY???

[bruinsgold]

Also Penn State, Kentucky, Creighton, and Purdue all in the same regional?! That's too many rematches.

Spread the love...... far away from me!