Penultimate Bracketology (11/24)

[trojansc]

These are some of the recent committee decisions for teams with no top 50 wins but a good enough RPI.

GOOD ENOUGH (High Point - 2017)





NOT GOOD ENOUGH (South Dakota - 2019)





GOOD ENOUGH (I *hate* the new team sheets method, so it's likely not going to be a pretty pic, here is SFA's 2023 team sheet: stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/33989/teams/558939/team_sheet

[trojansc]

History of teams who get left out for teams with WORSE RPI rankings


2023
----
44 NC State was left out of the tournament
45 Miami-FL, 47 Georgia got at-large bids

2022
----
43 Texas State was left out of the tournament
51 Ball State got an at-large bid

2021
-----
41 Syracuse, 44 Arkansas, 46 Southern California were left out
42 South Carolina, 43 West Virginia, 47 Kansas State, 48 Iowa State, and 54 Ole Miss got at-large bids

2019
-----
38 South Dakota (0-T50 wins), 45 Green Bay were left out
47 VCU got in

2018
-----
48 Kansas and 51 Kansas State were left out
50 Colorado, 53 San Diego, and 57 Loyola Marymount all got at-large bids.

2017
-----
47 North Texas was left out for 49 North Carolina State

2016
------
47 Temple was left out for 48 Southern California.

2015
------
42 Baylor, 43 Boise State, 44 Wyoming, 47 Pittsburgh all left out of the tournament.
45 Northern Iowa, 46 Arizona, 48 Oregon, 49 TCU, 51 Kansas State, 54 Michigan State all made it into the tournament.

2014
-------
42 SMU, 44 Ohio, and 45 CSUN were left out of the tournament.
46 Santa Clara, 47 Seton Hall, and 48 Michigan State got in.

2013
-----
37 Tulsa (0-top 50 victories) was left out of the tournament.
43 Butler, 47 UCLA were also left out of the tournament.
48 Colorado, 49 Arizona State, 51 Miami-Florida all got at-large bids.

2012
-------
NCAA committee went straight by RPI. All had significant victories.
46 LMU as the cut.

2011
------
48 Ohio State and 49 Arizona jumped 47 Kansas with better victories.
All other at-larges had good victories.

2010
-------
The committee went straight by RPI, but it made sense.
47 SMU didn't get in (0 top 50 wins) but everybody above them did, and all those teams had top 50 wins.

2009
------
46 Delaware/ 47 North Dakota State didn't get in (0 top-50 victories)
55 Washington State got in, 58 Clemson got in
(3 T50 victories)

2008
------
45 Creighton (1-top 50 win) didn't get in.
50 Tennessee and 51 Iowa State both got in.

2007
-------
37 Tulane was left out with just 1 top 50 victory.
51 Santa Clara and 52 Illinois State both got in.

2006
-------
Straight RPI Cut-off

2005
------
40 Albany only had one top 50 victory, and got left out.
53 LMU, 59 Texas A&M, 62 Kentucky all made it into the tournament. (with better wins)

2004
----
41 Marquette and 44 Alabama were left out of the tournament. 0 top 50 wins
54 Kansas 56 Loyola Marymount, 58 UC Irvine made it into the tournament.
(LMU had 3 T50 wins, UC Irvine had just two T-50 WINS)

2003
-------
43 Wisconsin-Mliwaukee was left out of the tournament. 0 top 50 wins
50 Saint Mary's, 53 San Francisco, 63 Northwestern got at-large bids.

2002
-------
The strange thing that occured this year was the biggest blunder probably in NCAA history. Eastern Washington, 27 RPI, left out of the tournament with 3 top 50 wins. Other teams got in with worse RPI's and just 1 or 2 top 50 wins.

[trianglevolleyball]

So 2 out of 4 teams within the assumed range got left out without a Top 50 win were Summit League squads. And it seems as though all of them at least played a team in the Top 50, or at least top 64. Would seem that a team should play at least one team that would qualify for the tournament based strictly on RPI if they want to show they belong.

[jayj79]

Nov 26, 2024 22:28:20 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

JUST SAY NO to giving at-large bids to teams who didn't even PLAY a Top 70 opponent all year.

they played UIC, who moved into the top 70 (according to figstats)

[mr. samwich]

Nov 27, 2024 1:28:32 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Nov 26, 2024 23:20:31 GMT -5 mr. samwich said:

Maybe not an at large but hasn't this been the debate for BYU getting a seed or not in the past, pre Big-12? Playing cupcake OOC, cruising through WCC conference for a solid W/L and RPI without really facing a solid opponent

BYU usually tried to schedule tough opponents out of conference when they were in the WCC. So, no. In 2019, they played Stanford, Texas, Marquette and Utah. In 2018, they played Stanford, USC, Marquette and Utah. Etc. Even in 2021 (their weakest non-conference schedule recently), they played Pitt and Utah.

Edit: also, the WCC at the time was a pretty good volleyball conference most seasons. You couldn't avoid playing a top 50 opponent all season.

I might be thinking specifically of the COVID season then when they were granted a 16 seed with like a 1 loss record, I think 10-12 RPI, and even that was controversial with their schedule, but also - COVID lol. But a cupcake team that was rewarded somewhat for it

[bbg95]

Nov 27, 2024 7:46:57 GMT -5 mr. samwich said:

Nov 27, 2024 1:28:32 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

BYU usually tried to schedule tough opponents out of conference when they were in the WCC. So, no. In 2019, they played Stanford, Texas, Marquette and Utah. In 2018, they played Stanford, USC, Marquette and Utah. Etc. Even in 2021 (their weakest non-conference schedule recently), they played Pitt and Utah.

Edit: also, the WCC at the time was a pretty good volleyball conference most seasons. You couldn't avoid playing a top 50 opponent all season.

I might be thinking specifically of the COVID season then when they were granted a 16 seed with like a 1 loss record, I think 10-12 RPI, and even that was controversial with their schedule, but also - COVID lol. But a cupcake team that was rewarded somewhat for it

I mean, no one played out-of-conference matches for the most part that season. What exactly were they supposed to do? And San Diego and Pepperdine were both pretty good in the WCC. They also beat UCLA in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to advance to the Sweet 16.

[pavsec5row10]

Nov 27, 2024 9:37:33 GMT -5 bbg95 said:

Nov 27, 2024 7:46:57 GMT -5 mr. samwich said:

I might be thinking specifically of the COVID season then when they were granted a 16 seed with like a 1 loss record, I think 10-12 RPI, and even that was controversial with their schedule, but also - COVID lol. But a cupcake team that was rewarded somewhat for it

I mean, no one played out-of-conference matches for the most part that season. What exactly were they supposed to do? And San Diego and Pepperdine were both pretty good in the WCC. They also beat UCLA in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to advance to the Sweet 16.

Definitely. RPI was pretty meaningless in the spring 2020 season due to the lack of out of conference play. BYU's (16-1) was 13, 15 seed Penn State (9-5) was 85, lol.  

There were also only 48 teams in the tournament, so for all intents and purposes that tournament is an outlier.  

[maigrey]

Hey trojansc -

There are a lot of games today; are there any of particular importance to bracketology?

[buttery]

Nov 26, 2024 23:36:51 GMT -5 Kearney Kingston said:

Where were this Kansas wins played?

If you’re talking against Purdue and Marquette; at home vs. Purdue and at Marquette.

[GBR]

Purdue @ Oregon is likely for a top 16 seed and thus home court in rounds 1/2. UK/Mizzou is big for UK to win the SEC out right and secure a top 16 seed. Pitt/Louisville, a Louisville win secures a top 4 seed, they play Stanford in a few days. So even with a loss they could still get that seed with a win over the Cards. Minn needs to win out to have any shot at a top 16 seed. Illinois tonight might be an upset in the making.   They are all important. Lot of ranked VS ranked games today though.