Post by c4ndlelight on Apr 19, 2015 12:01:40 GMT -5
USC, Hawai'i, Pepp.
FSU, FIU, Georgia St.
Stetson (ASUN)
Wild Card: LBSU.
Maybe Arizona gets a WC if they have a big weekend. But right now their biggest win is against Tulane. And I don't think beating UCLA is a signature win, as the Bruins really aren't very good (and, like Arizona, they've skipped scheduling most of the Big Girl teams).
Stetson is a favorite but not a lock for ASUN bid, it goes to the tournament winner this Fri/Sat. There have been a lot of close matches in ASUN play this season and there are 3 other ASUN teams capable of upsets. Stetson struggled at Siesta Key last weekend.
Arizona has a legit shot at passing Pepperdine for 3rd West bid and/or LBSU for At-Large bid if they get by UCLA this weekend (or upset USC). While not a great signature win, UCLA is also the best win for Pep (in region) and LBSU (overall), who have not really beaten anyone either. While Arizona has played a weaker schedule than the other two teams, they will likely have the better W/L record to counter that. Could be a close call depending on what committee values more in selection criteria.
The At-Large is really wide open still. Of all the teams mentioned, I think Pep probably has the edge if they get bumped from West #3, due to their win over FSU. If Stetson doesn't win the ASUN, they are next (or possibly #3 East) due to their win over FIU. If Arizona beats UCLA, I think they are next ahead of LBSU due to better record, with UCLA as best win for both.
Why are you discounting Pep's win over FSU in comparing them to Arizona? There's no way Arizona beats out Pepp for a spot.
And Arizona's loss to Nebraska takes them out of contention in a comparison with LBSU for the overall at-large. LBSU hasn't lost to anybody who won't be in Alabama. Arizona has.
It would be LBSU vs Nebraska, not LBSU vs Arizona.