lesmizuno
Sophomore
Posts: 222 
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Post by lesmizuno on Apr 16, 2015 1:00:49 GMT -5
Who do you think will be the top 8 in the national championship tournament? The SoCal teams are just so dominate to put equal number of East Coast teams. My dark horse team would be Arizona.
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Post by fetchin on Apr 16, 2015 1:22:48 GMT -5
USC, Hawaii, FIU and FSU are locks.
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Post by vbvalley on Apr 16, 2015 11:29:31 GMT -5
You can forget about any slim chance Arizona may have if they do not get by UCLA, (let alone USC) this weekend. Right now it looks like Pepperdine and Long Beach State will get the other two spots from the West.
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Post by geddyleeridesagain on Apr 16, 2015 11:55:56 GMT -5
USC, Hawai'i, Pepp.
FSU, FIU, Georgia St.
Stetson (ASUN)
Wild Card: LBSU.
Maybe Arizona gets a WC if they have a big weekend. But right now their biggest win is against Tulane. And I don't think beating UCLA is a signature win, as the Bruins really aren't very good (and, like Arizona, they've skipped scheduling most of the Big Girl teams).
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Post by unrated on Apr 16, 2015 12:30:36 GMT -5
Is this the last year for pairs competition?
Also, any predictions on who this year's pairs will be?
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 16, 2015 13:33:03 GMT -5
USC, Hawai'i, Pepp. FSU, FIU, Georgia St. Stetson (ASUN) Wild Card: LBSU. Maybe Arizona gets a WC if they have a big weekend. But right now their biggest win is against Tulane. And I don't think beating UCLA is a signature win, as the Bruins really aren't very good (and, like Arizona, they've skipped scheduling most of the Big Girl teams). Geddy has it pretty much right as of this moment. Stetson is a favorite but not a lock for ASUN bid, it goes to the tournament winner this Fri/Sat. There have been a lot of close matches in ASUN play this season and there are 3 other ASUN teams capable of upsets. Stetson struggled at Siesta Key last weekend. Arizona has a legit shot at passing Pepperdine for 3rd West bid and/or LBSU for At-Large bid if they get by UCLA this weekend (or upset USC). While not a great signature win, UCLA is also the best win for Pep (in region) and LBSU (overall), who have not really beaten anyone either. While Arizona has played a weaker schedule than the other two teams, they will likely have the better W/L record to counter that. Could be a close call depending on what committee values more in selection criteria. The At-Large is really wide open still. Of all the teams mentioned, I think Pep probably has the edge if they get bumped from West #3, due to their win over FSU. If Stetson doesn't win the ASUN, they are next (or possibly #3 East) due to their win over FIU. If Arizona beats UCLA, I think they are next ahead of LBSU due to better record, with UCLA as best win for both. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 16, 2015 14:21:07 GMT -5
USC, Hawaii, FIU and FSU are locks. GSU is ahead of FSU for #2 in East, and a lock, due to W/L record and a head-to-head win. Stetson (if they don't win ASUN) *might* be ahead of FSU for East #3, despite their head-to-head loss. Stetson has a better W/L record, and an edge in common opponents record, so it is very close overall. The committee will need to look at all of the selection criteria. |
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Post by vbvalley on Apr 16, 2015 15:04:53 GMT -5
It is nice when you beat good teams, but I thought that you at least had to play good teams to get to Alabama. Even if they beat UCLA, let's see how they fair against USC. If the scores are close, maybe. If they get dominated, if would be tough to pass on Long Beach St. Who knows for sure what to expect, as I am guessing that hardly anyone on this site watched their impressive victories over Concordia and Irvine Valley earlier this year down in Irvine.....
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 16, 2015 15:07:44 GMT -5
The SoCal teams are just so dominate to put equal number of East Coast teams. My dark horse team would be Arizona. Not sure how you come to this conclusion actually this year. There has been very limited cross-coast play. FIU beat Pepperdine. Stetson beat FIU. Does that mean Stetson would beat Pep? No, but it indicates they would have a good chance. FSU beat LBSU (but lost to Pep). GSU beat FSU. Does that mean GSU beats LBSU? No, but it indicates they would have a good chance. Exactly who from the West has beat who from the East to justify your statement? Or as I pointed out, even looking at common opponents? I would agree USC is a cut above everyone (on either coast), but beyond that I am not so sure there is a big difference between West and East among top teams. P.S. Arizona is indeed the dark horse, things will get interesting if they beat UCLA. |
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 16, 2015 15:11:13 GMT -5
It is nice when you beat good teams, but I thought that you at least had to play good teams to get to Alabama. Even if they beat UCLA, let's see how they fair against USC. If the scores are close, maybe. If they get dominated, if would be tough to pass on Long Beach St. Who knows for sure what to expect, as I am guessing that hardly anyone on this site watched their impressive victories over Concordia and Irvine Valley earlier this year down in Irvine..... No, you actually don't have to play good teams to get to Nationals. True in most NCAA sports (i.e., conference tournament winners). One of the criteria is Strength of Schedule (playing good teams), so it does help to schedule tough. However there are several other criteria. One of those other criteria is beating good teams (record versus teams in field). Note that LBSU has not beaten anyone of note. So just playing a tough schedule is not enough. Regarding close match scores - that is a good indicator of strength for the "eye test". However, by selection criteria, match score is ONLY looked at as Win or Loss, the committee will NOT look at if a match was close or a blow-out to determine selections. Note that this is the same in all NCAA sports (except football) as well. |
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Post by FOBRA on Apr 16, 2015 15:11:16 GMT -5
The Arizona website mentions they will be without Madi Kingdon this weekend. I forget the exact rule... do they have to sub someone in directly into their #1 team or can they slide everyone up and then put her replacement/old partner at #5? Or can they only slide the replacement team to #2 and have to move the twins up to #1?
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 16, 2015 15:27:50 GMT -5
Fobra,
Arizona has some choices by rule. They may NOT move Kingdons #1 partner to #5 (she may move to #2 pair at most).
A) They can drop their entire #1 pair and move each other pair up.
B) They can move one player from #2 to #1 (and drop remaining #2 to move each other pair up).
C) They can move #2 pair to #1 pair, then move #1 remaining player to #2 slot and pair her with a #3 player moving up. Then drop other #3 player and move remaining pairs up.
D) They could cascade partner changes 1 spot down thru entire lineup, as started in A, B, and C. But breaking up every pair is likely not smart at this point in season.
E) They can move a #6 player to pair with remaining #1 player - this new pair can play as #1 or #2 pair.
There are some other options, but all similar to this.
Basically, players can only move up or down 1 spot (or be dropped entirely) between events. There is an exception for injury/illness allowing an unseeded player to move up wherever needed.
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Post by montechello on Apr 16, 2015 17:53:55 GMT -5
Grand Canyon has a stronger case for a bid than Arizona does. Grand Canyon has a much tougher schedule and a more significant win. GCU beat Loyola Marymount. That's no big deal, but it's better than any of Arizona's wins. Grand Canyon doesn't have any bad losses. Its worst loss was to Nebraska, and Nebraska beat Arizona, too. Arizona hasn't played anyone better than that. Grand Canyon has played USC, Pepperdine, Hawaii, and Long Beach. All losses, but it's a real schedule.
Anyway, it's a moot point, because neither team will go to nationals, unless something shocking happens in the next 10 days.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 16, 2015 18:38:59 GMT -5
Grand Canyon has a stronger case for a bid than Arizona does. Grand Canyon has a much tougher schedule and a more significant win. GCU beat Loyola Marymount. That's no big deal, but it's better than any of Arizona's wins. Grand Canyon doesn't have any bad losses. Its worst loss was to Nebraska, and Nebraska beat Arizona, too. Arizona hasn't played anyone better than that. Grand Canyon has played USC, Pepperdine, Hawaii, and Long Beach. All losses, but it's a real schedule. Anyway, it's a moot point, because neither team will go to nationals, unless something shocking happens in the next 10 days. Grand Canyon is interesting, but some of your argument does not work. The "significant win" criteria is actually "Record versus teams qualified or under consideration". LMU is 4-10 this year and is NOT under consideration. They are a solid squad that is having a down year and probably scheduled too tough. So there are NO "good" wins for GCU. There is actually no selection criteria of "having no bad losses". And as you pointed out, Arizona has none either. Arizona beats GCU in the W/L record, while GCU is ahead in Strength of Schedule. All the other criteria appear to be pushes between the two teams (head-to-head, common opponents, etc.). So it could be a coin flip between those two teams, if it was just them for the last bid. However, GCU does terribly in criteria compared with the other teams in consideration for West #3 bid and At-Large bid. Pepperdine, LBSU, Stetson, and FSU are all well ahead of GCU in criteria. Arizona could actually match up close to those teams in criteria if they beat UCLA, which is why I included them in my analysis. GCU is one of the teams I have not seen this year, are they pretty good? |
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Post by vballmom1 on Apr 17, 2015 0:32:31 GMT -5
Been awhile since i have 'trolled' these pages but I will be in SoCal this weekend and will try to head down and watch some matches. I was able to make it to ASU last weekend, fun event and great weather! Honestly though, the play was a bit disappointing, doesn't seem to be much improvement from last year and when talking to fans somewhat disappointed in ASU and Arizona's talent. Not sure of the schools funding but would have thought with a year under their belt they would be further along, looks like the SoCal teams will continue to dominate. It really isn't a surprise though, look at the coaching and girls: the 4 schools in Arizona still have indoor coaches on the sand and a number of x-over players. At least ASU had a decent schedule, Arizona's was beyond weak and their only loss came to an Indoor team on the sand. They also had a new assistant, Tayyiba, a great Indoor player but again no sand experience. What happened to their last assistant, she was the only coach with sand experience on staff in the state? Well, I hope the colleges in AZ figure it out, in Phx the sand game is exploding with many Indoor clubs adding a sand component and tournaments nearly every weekend.
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