2016 Bracketology (FINALIZED) 11/27

[bigfan]

Excellent analysis. The Pac-12 is way down this year.

[vboldskool]

Oct 11, 2016 19:32:25 GMT -5 bigfan said:

Excellent analysis. The Pac-12 is way down this year.

You know I am not so sure that any one conference is "way down" this year. I think that for the first time in a very long, long time - beyond four or five teams, you have a stunning amount of parity. Its unusual for sure, but I think it is good and should make for a GREAT tournament.

I think it is all because of Karch's emphasis on culture

[trojansc]

Updated up to 10/24 results

[SaltNPepper]

Nice Job!

[trojansc]

Comments? Concerns?

[bluepenquin]

Oct 25, 2016 15:43:20 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Comments? Concerns?

I think this is a great read.  I think most things are spot on and everything is a legit opinion.

I think there is much more RPI variability in spots 5-25 than usual, so figuring out the seeds this early is more difficult than past years.  There seem to be fewer seed locks than the past? 

[trojansc]

Oct 25, 2016 15:57:12 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Oct 25, 2016 15:43:20 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Comments? Concerns?

I think this is a great read.  I think most things are spot on and everything is a legit opinion.

I think there is much more RPI variability in spots 5-25 than usual, so figuring out the seeds this early is more difficult than past years.  There seem to be fewer seed locks than the past? 

I was waiting for someone to freak out that I have Hawaii out of the NCAA's now, along with three MWC bids but only two from the WCC and MVC..

Also, blue, is there any mathematical way that Pacific and LMU both finish top 50?

[volleyfan24]

Oct 25, 2016 15:59:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 25, 2016 15:57:12 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I think this is a great read.  I think most things are spot on and everything is a legit opinion.

I think there is much more RPI variability in spots 5-25 than usual, so figuring out the seeds this early is more difficult than past years.  There seem to be fewer seed locks than the past? 

I was waiting for someone to freak out that I have Hawaii out of the NCAA's now, along with three MWC bids but only two from the WCC and MVC..

Also, blue, is there any mathematical way that Pacific and LMU both finish top 50?

I saw this and noticed it in Blues RPI futures they are looking like Hawaii would be out but I think they win against LBSU at home. Hawaiis getting better I will be stunned if they don't make the tourney. Also you think Colorado is still in they seemed firmly on the bubble.

Just had to correct you really quick you said Stanford and USC are far removed from the Final Four but Stanford made the Final Four 2 seasons ago. As for USC though it must burn them that last season and 3 years ago they lost in the elite 8 both times in 5 and a deuce set in the 5th.

[trojansc]

Oct 25, 2016 16:50:09 GMT -5 volleyfan24 said:

Oct 25, 2016 15:59:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I was waiting for someone to freak out that I have Hawaii out of the NCAA's now, along with three MWC bids but only two from the WCC and MVC..

Also, blue, is there any mathematical way that Pacific and LMU both finish top 50?

I saw this and noticed it in Blues RPI futures they are looking like Hawaii would be out but I think they win against LBSU at home. Hawaiis getting better I will be stunned if they don't make the tourney. Also you think Colorado is still in they seemed firmly on the bubble.

Just had to correct you really quick you said Stanford and USC are far removed from the Final Four but Stanford made the Final Four 2 seasons ago. As for USC though it must burn them that last season and 3 years ago they lost in the elite 8 both times in 5 and a deuce set in the 5th.

I was referring to having "won a final four match". At least reaching the Championship match. For Stanford, they havent won a match in the Final Four since 2008. And for USC, they haven't been to the title game since they won it all in 03. So as far as getting to the title match, 8 years for Stanford, 13 for USC. Washington hasn't reached the title game since 05 when they won it all, 11 years.

USC has lost in the national semi's in 04,07,10 and 11 .. They need to right that ship..

[mikegarrison]

Oct 25, 2016 17:04:25 GMT -5 trojansc said:

USC has lost in the national semi's in 04,07,10 and 11 .. They need to right that ship..

That's one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that most colleges in D1 have never had their volleyball team in the Sweet Sixteen.

[MTC]

Oct 25, 2016 17:59:43 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Oct 25, 2016 17:04:25 GMT -5 trojansc said:

USC has lost in the national semi's in 04,07,10 and 11 .. They need to right that ship..

That's one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that most colleges in D1 have never had their volleyball team in the Sweet Sixteen.

Sort of like a glass half-full vs half-empty.

[vbcoach06]

Great read-thanks for doing this. I agree with the MWC probably getting 3, but I still think the WCC manages 3 somehow too. Definitely don't see the MVC getting 3...

[bluepenquin]

Oct 25, 2016 15:59:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Oct 25, 2016 15:57:12 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

I think this is a great read.  I think most things are spot on and everything is a legit opinion.

I think there is much more RPI variability in spots 5-25 than usual, so figuring out the seeds this early is more difficult than past years.  There seem to be fewer seed locks than the past? 

I was waiting for someone to freak out that I have Hawaii out of the NCAA's now, along with three MWC bids but only two from the WCC and MVC..

Also, blue, is there any mathematical way that Pacific and LMU both finish top 50?

If Pacific and LMU win out - with Pacific also beating LMU in their remaining match - then the RPI Futures would be Pacific (38) and LMU (48).  If LMU beats Pacific - then it reverses with LMU (38) and Pacific (48) - kind of a coincidence.

BYU drops to 17 in both cases and their seed becomes suspect.

As for the Big West - Long Beach probably needs to beat Hawaii in order to get their RPI under 50 - but then if they beat Hawaii they will be an AQ.  Cal Poly looks like they are finished as far as an under 50 RPI, even if they beat Hawaii.  Hawaii loses to Long Beach and wins the rest of their matches then they are still at #36/37 - so I would be shocked if they don't get a bid - if they lose one more.

[BeachbytheBay]

Oct 25, 2016 21:03:23 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Oct 25, 2016 15:59:15 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I was waiting for someone to freak out that I have Hawaii out of the NCAA's now, along with three MWC bids but only two from the WCC and MVC..

Also, blue, is there any mathematical way that Pacific and LMU both finish top 50?

If Pacific and LMU win out - with Pacific also beating LMU in their remaining match - then the RPI Futures would be Pacific (38) and LMU (48).  If LMU beats Pacific - then it reverses with LMU (38) and Pacific (48) - kind of a coincidence.

BYU drops to 17 in both cases and their seed becomes suspect.

As for the Big West - Long Beach probably needs to beat Hawaii in order to get their RPI under 50 - but then if they beat Hawaii they will be an AQ.  Cal Poly looks like they are finished as far as an under 50 RPI, even if they beat Hawaii.  Hawaii loses to Long Beach and wins the rest of their matches then they are still at #36/37 - so I would be shocked if they don't get a bid - if they lose one more.

so for the Big West dream scenario

LB loses to Hawaii (ends up 51, which is a quandray for Hawaii as it turns out not so good for Hawaii dropping the LB win out of top 50 win)
Poly beats Hawaii (ends up about 44/45) and loses no others.

Final RPI in that case:

Hawaii: 37
Poly: 44/45
Beach: 51 (with the AQ)

of course the probability of that happening is probably about 3.328925793 %

If LB loses to Hawaii and they end up in a tie-breaker with Hawaii the AQ

Hawaii: 29
Beach: 51

LB is rooting big-time for LMU to beat Pacific & have LMU sub-50, then LB gets that 2nd top 50 win, since they beat LMU 3-0, otherwise all they got is the Hawaii win unless Duke makes a run the last month

Poly needs to run the table, has to beat Hawaii, possibly another loss is ok only if they beat Hawaii with a top 25 WKU win

[Cruz'n]

Always impressed with the work you put into this, Trojan.