2016 Bracketology (FINALIZED) 11/27

[southie]

The other option would be to have a one day break between the regional semi-finals and finals, or to stagger the regional semi-finals and finals like they do in the women's hoops tourney.

[trojansc]

updted yall - Happy Halloween!

[utexrulz23]

If Texas and Kansas win out, Texas gets the AQ due to sets won in the series.

[rainbowbadger]

Wisconsin has to win out to get seeded above Minnesota, doncha think?

Iowa: I'm thinking that in order to get in, they also need a quality road win. They have left:
@ Rutgers (doesn't count)
@ Penn State
@ Nebraska
@ Purdue
v. Rutgers
v. Nebraska
@ Wisconsin
v. Michigan State

So they need to beat Rutgers twice, and at least Purdue. Preferably PSU. The MSU match is the Saturday night before Selection Sunday, and we all know the bracket's done by then and the committee doesn't pay any attention to those matches, so while a win there might theoretically help seal Iowa's deal, in reality it's probably too little, too late. If there were ever a time to muster your first victory over the Children of the Corn, Bond, now would be it.

Does Milwaukee just stink this year? They usually win the Horizon League, don't they?

[bluepenquin]

<Here's the scary potential: B1G gets 11 total (10 at-large) bids. It could happen if Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana all pull off multiple upsets (and they've already shown they can do it). If the B1G has 11 teams in the Top 45 RPI, and I think there are reasonable scenarios in which that could happen (what do you think bluepenquin ), they will get 11 total bids to the NCAA tournament.>>

As for the #45 threshold: Illinois would need to go 5-3 in their remaining games. Indiana and Iowa would have to go at least 5-3 in their remaining matches (but this is w/o testing, there was a pretty large break around #50 and Iowa and Indiana were/are on the wrong side of that break). But then, #45 may not be required to get a bid.

Indiana has 5 of their remaining games on the road. They have 1 left with Rutgers and only 2 matches left with NB, MN, WI, PSU. Not the toughest possible for a Big 10 school, but it will be plenty tough for Indiana.

Iowa also has 5 left on the road. They do get Rutgers twice, but they have 4 matches left with NB, MN, WI, PSU - with 3 of those on the road. I don't see it being very likely for them.

Illinois has half their games at home and get Rutgers once. They have 3 against NB, MN, WI, PSU. But then they don't need to go 5-3 to get/stay under 50. They kind of have a mini-critical week this week at the Michigan's. Kind of need to get one of them.

[tempesthorn]

Nov 1, 2016 5:33:28 GMT -5 utexrulz23 said:

If Texas and Kansas win out, Texas gets the AQ due to sets won in the series.

www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=100&ATCLID=3624202

Big 12 tiebreaker rules are printed in this article back in 2008. utex is right, Texas has the tiebreaker based on sets won.

[spikerthemovie]

Nov 1, 2016 12:28:02 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

<Here's the scary potential: B1G gets 11 total (10 at-large) bids. It could happen if Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana all pull off multiple upsets (and they've already shown they can do it). If the B1G has 11 teams in the Top 45 RPI, and I think there are reasonable scenarios in which that could happen (what do you think bluepenquin ), they will get 11 total bids to the NCAA tournament.>>

As for the #45 threshold: Illinois would need to go 5-3 in their remaining games. Indiana and Iowa would have to go at least 5-3 in their remaining matches (but this is w/o testing, there was a pretty large break around #50 and Iowa and Indiana were/are on the wrong side of that break). But then, #45 may not be required to get a bid.

Indiana has 5 of their remaining games on the road. They have 1 left with Rutgers and only 2 matches left with NB, MN, WI, PSU. Not the toughest possible for a Big 10 school, but it will be plenty tough for Indiana.

Iowa also has 5 left on the road. They do get Rutgers twice, but they have 4 matches left with NB, MN, WI, PSU - with 3 of those on the road. I don't see it being very likely for them.

Illinois has half their games at home and get Rutgers once. They have 3 against NB, MN, WI, PSU. But then they don't need to go 5-3 to get/stay under 50. They kind of have a mini-critical week this week at the Michigan's. Kind of need to get one of them.

Iowa is done with Minnesota. I think you're missing that they play Nebraska twice?

[bayarea]

Thanks for doing this. One correction...for the WCC, you have San Diego as the auto-qualifier and also as the at-large bid recipient. Gonna have to choose which one they get and which one BYU gets...

[spikerthemovie]

Nov 1, 2016 5:59:38 GMT -5 rainbowbadger said:

Wisconsin has to win out to get seeded above Minnesota, doncha think?

Maybe not win out but it sure seems like they'd have to beat Minnesota at Minnesota. It'd be tough for the committee to justify seeding Wisconsin above Minnesota if Minnesota, with a harder schedule than Wisconsin, has beaten the Badgers twice.

[noreaster]

Looking at the latest draft, if the nearest hosts are Ann Arbor, Lexington and Chapel Hill, it looks like 6 programs in the northeast are all going to have to fly no matter where they go. Unpacking that cluster of Big 10 teams is going to take some flights. And you still have to get Hawaii stateside and get teams into Seattle and Provo.

The travel bill for this tournament could be the most expensive ever.

[notwvb]

Nov 1, 2016 13:50:26 GMT -5 spikerthemovie said:

Nov 1, 2016 12:28:02 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

<Here's the scary potential: B1G gets 11 total (10 at-large) bids. It could happen if Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana all pull off multiple upsets (and they've already shown they can do it). If the B1G has 11 teams in the Top 45 RPI, and I think there are reasonable scenarios in which that could happen (what do you think bluepenquin ), they will get 11 total bids to the NCAA tournament.>>

As for the #45 threshold: Illinois would need to go 5-3 in their remaining games. Indiana and Iowa would have to go at least 5-3 in their remaining matches (but this is w/o testing, there was a pretty large break around #50 and Iowa and Indiana were/are on the wrong side of that break). But then, #45 may not be required to get a bid.

Indiana has 5 of their remaining games on the road. They have 1 left with Rutgers and only 2 matches left with NB, MN, WI, PSU. Not the toughest possible for a Big 10 school, but it will be plenty tough for Indiana.

Iowa also has 5 left on the road. They do get Rutgers twice, but they have 4 matches left with NB, MN, WI, PSU - with 3 of those on the road. I don't see it being very likely for them.

Illinois has half their games at home and get Rutgers once. They have 3 against NB, MN, WI, PSU. But then they don't need to go 5-3 to get/stay under 50. They kind of have a mini-critical week this week at the Michigan's. Kind of need to get one of them.

Iowa is done with Minnesota. I think you're missing that they play Nebraska twice?

Purdue again on the road, not MN.   Rutgers, PSU, NE, Purdue and WI on the road, and Rutgers, NE and MSU at home.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 1, 2016 13:50:26 GMT -5 spikerthemovie said:

Nov 1, 2016 12:28:02 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

<Here's the scary potential: B1G gets 11 total (10 at-large) bids. It could happen if Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana all pull off multiple upsets (and they've already shown they can do it). If the B1G has 11 teams in the Top 45 RPI, and I think there are reasonable scenarios in which that could happen (what do you think bluepenquin ), they will get 11 total bids to the NCAA tournament.>>

As for the #45 threshold: Illinois would need to go 5-3 in their remaining games. Indiana and Iowa would have to go at least 5-3 in their remaining matches (but this is w/o testing, there was a pretty large break around #50 and Iowa and Indiana were/are on the wrong side of that break). But then, #45 may not be required to get a bid.

Indiana has 5 of their remaining games on the road. They have 1 left with Rutgers and only 2 matches left with NB, MN, WI, PSU. Not the toughest possible for a Big 10 school, but it will be plenty tough for Indiana.

Iowa also has 5 left on the road. They do get Rutgers twice, but they have 4 matches left with NB, MN, WI, PSU - with 3 of those on the road. I don't see it being very likely for them.

Illinois has half their games at home and get Rutgers once. They have 3 against NB, MN, WI, PSU. But then they don't need to go 5-3 to get/stay under 50. They kind of have a mini-critical week this week at the Michigan's. Kind of need to get one of them.

Iowa is done with Minnesota. I think you're missing that they play Nebraska twice?

Yes.  I was trying to write that among Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Penn State (who I am suggesting are the 4 best teams in conference) they have 4 matches left against those teams.  I was lumping those 4 teams as 'very hard' opponents and didn't attend to suggest one match against each.  And that among the 3 teams considered (Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana) - Iowa has the most matches left with the top 4 teams in conference.

[trojansc]

Nov 1, 2016 13:51:06 GMT -5 bayarea said:

Thanks for doing this. One correction...for the WCC, you have San Diego as the auto-qualifier and also as the at-large bid recipient. Gonna have to choose which one they get and which one BYU gets...

At first I thought that they were both tied, and then I remembered BYU stumbled at Portland.

So San Diego clearly has the advantage. I'm a little bit torn for who im rooting this week in the WCC though. I want to see Pacific beat BYU/USD, but I also hold out hope for a Top 4 NCAA seed for San Diego or BYU. If they both finish top 10 RPI considering USD beat UCLA and Stanford maybe they would get a look, especially if Stanford or UCLA wins the PAC.

But Pacific is in hailmary mode. They have to win. After their unfair snub in 2014, I'd like to see them get in. Pacific has gone 6-2 against LMU the past 4 years, but still without an NCAA berth to show. It's unlikely they'll win both this weekend, but their season and a great career for Elman is on the line

[rainbowbadger]

Nov 1, 2016 13:52:26 GMT -5 spikerthemovie said:

Nov 1, 2016 5:59:38 GMT -5 rainbowbadger said:

Wisconsin has to win out to get seeded above Minnesota, doncha think?

Maybe not win out but it sure seems like they'd have to beat Minnesota at Minnesota. It'd be tough for the committee to justify seeding Wisconsin above Minnesota if Minnesota, with a harder schedule than Wisconsin, has beaten the Badgers twice.

And this is why I drink.

Not that the Saturday night match, last match of the saeson, matters anyway. Committee will have already made their decisions by then.

[trojansc]

Nov 1, 2016 13:52:26 GMT -5 spikerthemovie said:

Nov 1, 2016 5:59:38 GMT -5 rainbowbadger said:

Wisconsin has to win out to get seeded above Minnesota, doncha think?

Maybe not win out but it sure seems like they'd have to beat Minnesota at Minnesota. It'd be tough for the committee to justify seeding Wisconsin above Minnesota if Minnesota, with a harder schedule than Wisconsin, has beaten the Badgers twice.

This is a tough one. Wisconsin has a slightly easier schedule to end the season, and should end up with a better RPI. In this scenario, I would have Wisconsin winning the rematch with Minnesota. They will likely end up looking pretty similar on the nitty gritty sheets, but I think Minnesota has the better wins overall. There's still 8 matches left for most teams from the top conferences.. alot can happen!


And it is not too difficult to swap their seed based on the late result. The subregional pairings wouldn't really change based on a slight seed change.