NCAA Beach Bids 2017

[lbsandfan]

thank you .. so tough for the family/fans for teams on the bubble .. not knowing about travel plans.

[trollhunter]

Apr 5, 2017 17:06:08 GMT -5 lbsandfan said:

thank you .. so tough for the family/fans for teams on the bubble .. not knowing about travel plans.

See my predictions for bids in this thread to make plans

[trollhunter]

TCU pulls 3 upsets to join the East #3 bid race, versus FIU, FAU and GSU. Forgot they were assigned to East region til now.

[trollhunter]

Some big news in NCAA Beach bids during week 6!

A) TCU comes from nowhere into East #3 bid race.
B) West and At-Large bids are virtually locked.
C) Found out Aloha tournament is cancelled – some late matchups disappear.

West Bids (3):
1. USC - lock
2. PEPPERDINE – lock (need 2-2 split in Florida to stay in 2nd, worst case they fall to #3 West).
3. UCLA – lock
West bid At-Large – LBSU or Hawaii could swap with Pepp/UCLA depending on finish

At-Large Bids (2):
1. LBSU – lock
2. HAWAII – lock
At-Large Underdogs:
Arizona (must win PAC12 beating UCLA and USC, then hope a team above loses several)
GCU (must beat FSU, Stetson, FIU and hope a team above loses several)

East Bids (3):
1. FSU – lock
2. LSU – near lock (beat GSU next week or a couple teams in CCSA earns East #2 or #3)
3. TCU – currently in 3rd, but can’t improve resume

East Underdogs:
Stetson – must beat FIU, GCU/Pepperdine, and win all ASUN.
GSU – must beat LSU next week or in CCSA, and beat FSU in CCSA tourny.
FIU – must beat Stetson next week and LSU in CCSA. Must beat FSU next week or in CCSA tourny.
FAU – must win CCSA beating LSU & FSU.
SCarolina - must win CCSA beating LSU & FSU.

I will do a criteria breakdown for bubble teams later this week.
Let me know if I am missing any contender teams, or if you see things differently for ranking.

[FOBRA]

I think Pepperdine will eventually hold at the #2 seed overall. They have a head to head win against UCLA and the Bruins have to play 'SC up to *3* more times before the championship tournament. Unless they pull an upset, their overall resume will not look as good as Pepp's (even though I think they're pretty even).

[rainmaker]

Trollhunter, too bad the TCU/SCU matchup didn't occur this weekend. That would have settled the TCU/SCU third East bid argument, its a virtual tie between them, same resume. I have SCU slightly above the FIU,GSU, FAU, Stetsons of the world.. TCU balled this weekend. I'm looking at their resumes, hard to pick one over the other. SCU can move ahead at the conference championship. I honestly fee the other 7 seeds are a done deal.

[montechello]

I don't see the case for TCU. Stetson is ahead by a healthy margin. That could change, since Stetson still has tough matches left. Stetson has been playing a tougher schedule all along.

[trollhunter]

Apr 10, 2017 15:29:01 GMT -5 montechello said:

I don't see the case for TCU. Stetson is ahead by a healthy margin. That could change, since Stetson still has tough matches left. Stetson has been playing a tougher schedule all along.

Not sure how you see Stetson ahead of TCU now. Perhaps I missed something in my comparison.

Here is criteria for those two teams. I have TCU slightly ahead now, but Stetson can tie or pass them with a strong finish.

TCU vs Stetson

1) RegRec = TCU/TIE?? (records are similar) both beat FAU/GSU and lost to LSU/FSU.
Stetson (13-4 region) also beat SCU and lost to GSU. TCU (7-2 region) has extra win vs FIU.

2) SoS = ?? Need someone to calculate via Excel please. Very close from approximation.

3) H2H = TIE (did not play)

4) ComOpp = TCU (via GSU, LMUx2)

5) OvRec = TIE?? Stetson (15-10) lost to GSU and LMUx2 = TCU (14-8) lost to GCU, AZ, ASU

It appears Stetson must beat FIU for RegRec (tie?), and beat GCU/Pepp for OvRec

Let me know if something looks incorrect, I am certain I will make some errors in these comparisons.

[txjulia]

Excuse me if I'm wrong, not as familiar with beach, but it seems like it would be between South Carolina and TCU, with Stetson out of the picture. Despite their high ranking, they have 10 loses.

Thanks trollhunter for doing this all season.

[trollhunter]

Apr 10, 2017 8:52:27 GMT -5 rainmaker said:

Trollhunter, too bad the TCU/SCU matchup didn't occur this weekend. That would have settled the TCU/SCU third East bid argument, its a virtual tie between them, same resume. I have SCU slightly above the FIU,GSU, FAU, Stetsons of the world.. TCU balled this weekend. I'm looking at their resumes, hard to pick one over the other. SCU can move ahead at the conference championship. I honestly fee the other 7 seeds are a done deal.

SCarolina does compare well with TCU, but also compares badly with GSU and Stetson. It may end up with a 3 way tie where:

A > B
B > C
C > A

[trollhunter]

Apr 10, 2017 16:42:00 GMT -5 txjulia said:

Excuse me if I'm wrong, not as familiar with beach, but it seems like it would be between South Carolina and TCU, with Stetson out of the picture. Despite their high ranking, they have 10 loses.

Thanks trollhunter for doing this all season.

Stetson is not out of the picture with 3 big matches left. And some easy ones to pad their record.
South Carolina does compare well with TCU, I will post that soon.
However SCarolina also compares poorly with GSU and Stetson.
See my post directly above.

[trollhunter]

TCU versus SCarolina:

1) RegRec = TCU - both lost to LSU/FSU and both beat FIU/FAU. Difference is:
TCU (7-2 region) beat GSU, while SCU (16-6 region) lost to GSUx2, Stetson

2) SoS = ?? Need someone to calculate via Excel. Not clear.

3) H2H = TIE (did not play)

4) ComOpp = TIE (TCU better vs GSU, while SCU better vs GCU)

5) OvRec = TIE?? very close, similar significant wins/losses
TCU (14-8) beat GSU but lost to GCU, AZ, ASU
SCU (17-7) beat GCU, but lost to GSUx2, Stetson

It appears to me that SCarolina must beat LSU or FSU to get ahead of TCU in ComOpp and OvRec. However, because other teams are vying for East bid #3 also (Stetson), SCarolina may need to win 2 matches versus LSU/FSU to be ahead of these others. And not lose to someone else. So basically win CCSA tourney, or at least make it to finals.

[sandyfan]

I think if South Carolina can get to the finals of the CCSA then they will get in. It will mean a win against either LSU or FSU and a win probably over GSU. This Carolina team is very hard to figure out after convincing wins over FIU 5-0 and FAU 4-1. They juggled their teams around a couple weeks ago and have seemed to produce better results.

[trollhunter]

Another comparison for East #3 spot

TCU vs FIU

1) RegRec = TCU - both lost to LSU/FSU and both beat FAU/GSU
TCU 7-2 region, FIU 16-5 region. Difference is FIU 2 losses to SCarolina

2) SoS = ?? Need someone to calculate via Excel.

3) H2H = TCU

4) ComOpp = TIE (TCU vs Cal Poly, FIU vs ASU)

5) OvRec = TIE
FIU 17-10 beat ASU and lost SCarolina x2, Cal Poly
TCU 14-8 beat Cal Poly and lost to AZ, ASU, GCU

FIU must beat both LSU/FSU or one plus either Stetson/Pepp to catch up in RegRec, ComOpp, OvRec categories.
Probably 3/4 of those to stay ahead of other bubble contenders.

[rainmaker]

The Asun games hurt Stetson imo.. It's weak this year, and Stetson didn't even win this conference last year, (UNF beat them 2 out of 3, and in the final). Yes they have played top 5 teams, but lost all of them, not sure what that proves. I think it's this simple, if they win 2 out of 3 this weekend in Tally, and play Pepperdine close, they will earn the E3 seed. If they split with FIU/GCU, get beat 5-0 by Pepperdine, something like that, they are out. I like the scenario of playing your way in. Stetson can do that this Friday. If they falter, I think we revert back to the SCU/TCU/FIU/GSU thing, leaning to just TCU/SCU. Thoughts?