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Post by trollhunter on Mar 20, 2017 15:07:38 GMT -5
For discussion of NCAA Beach tournament bids this year.
My sources say bid allocation and criteria will be the same this year as last season. Let me know if you hear something else.
Next season they will start using conference auto-bids plus At-Large.
There appear to be 8 bids available again this season, 3 for West teams, 3 for East teams, and 2 At-Large (anywhere).
The NCAA criteria for REGION bids from last season:
1) Region W/L record (including significant wins & losses). RegRec abbreviation. 2) Strength of schedule. Supposedly used last year but never released. SoS. 3) Head-to-head competition. H2H. 4) Results versus common opponents. ComOpp. 5) Overall W/L record (including significant wins & losses). OvRec.
The NCAA selection criteria for AT-LARGE bids last year:
a. Head-to-head competition. b. Results versus common opponents. c. Strength of schedule. d. Overall record including significant wins and losses (must be .500 or above). Note that they do not look at region record for this AT-LARGE. It puts more of an emphasis on playing and beating good teams, which is as it should be.
Teams MUST have a .500 or better W/L record.
Results versus JuCo do not count. Same for NAIA.
Not sure about counting matches versus NCAA teams that don't play a minimum schedule.
Not sure if they will consider Eligibility and Availability of Student-Athletes. Did not last year.
RPI is probably still a year away. NCAA did not use it last year for Beach.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 20, 2017 19:38:18 GMT -5
Here is my initial look at NCAA bid scenarios after 3 weeks. Let me know if you see it differently or if I left a team off the list.
West Bids (3): USC PEPPERDINE LBSU or UCLA
At-Large Bids (2): LBSU or UCLA HAWAII Dark Horse At-Large (must upset multiple teams above): Cal, Cal Poly, TCU, GCU, Arizona, ASU
East Bids (3): FSU 2 CCSA teams (FAU, GSU, LSU, South Carolina, FIU). Likely not decided until conference tournament.
The East teams have virtually no shot via At-Large because of West vs East sweeps so far. Only possible exceptions are if FAU beats UCLA, or South Carolina beats USC.
This weekend is midpoint of the regular season!
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 22, 2017 18:02:37 GMT -5
Some matches with NCAA tournament bid (or seeding) implications this weekend. We will find out how good South Carolina really is.
EDIT - FIU versus FAU is NEXT weekend.
South Carolina hosts FSU, GSU, USC and Stetson. Chance for GSU and South Carolina to get edge on an East bid with 2 or 3 wins.
LBSU, UCLA and Cal will fight it out for a big edge in West/At-Large race.
Dark Horses: CalPoly can get into the bid race at Pepperdine, and TCU at Hawaii. Stetson needs 3 wins to get into East contention.
Any other big matches?
If anyone is at one of the matches, would love to read their thoughts on the teams. I may be at Long Beach or another West coast match.
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Post by rockhopper on Mar 23, 2017 16:27:15 GMT -5
Are there no automatic qualifiers? CCSA? ASUN?
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Post by FOBRA on Mar 23, 2017 16:45:49 GMT -5
Are there no automatic qualifiers? CCSA? ASUN? I don't think autoqualifiers kick in until next year (2 years of sponsorship as an NCAA sport). PAC12, WCC, Big West, CCSA and ASUN are all sponsoring currently. I think there might be more that I am forgetting.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 24, 2017 11:36:30 GMT -5
Are there no automatic qualifiers? CCSA? ASUN? I don't think autoqualifiers kick in until next year (2 years of sponsorship as an NCAA sport). PAC12, WCC, Big West, CCSA and ASUN are all sponsoring currently. I think there might be more that I am forgetting. I think that you are correct on auto-qualifiers next year, and on the 5 conferences. Wondering if some of the East teams are going to join ASUN/CCSA or create their own conferences? That is the only way some of those teams are going to have a chance to make NCAA tournament.
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Post by Winbabywin on Mar 24, 2017 12:09:43 GMT -5
There are a handful of beach programs in the east (both D1 & D2) that are unattached to a conference. They are in completely unofficial talks to maybe put together a mixed division conference in the next 2-4 years. Obviously with more and more schools adding each year, at both divisions, this could just be an unofficial "conference" probably not recognized by the NCAA; but perhaps a bid could be possible in the future.
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 27, 2017 18:54:54 GMT -5
NCAA bid scenario is a little clearer after 4 weeks. A few pretenders have dropped out. Let me know if you see it differently or if I left a team off the list.
West Bids (3): USC PEPPERDINE UCLA
At-Large Bids (2): LBSU HAWAII At-Large Dark Horse: GCU, AZ
East Bids (3): FSU 2 other CCSA teams of LSU, FAU, GSU, FIU. East dark horse: S. Carolina, Stetson.
The East teams have no chance via At-Large because of West vs East sweeps so far. Only possible exception is if FAU beats UCLA and doesn’t get an East bid.
Hard to believe we are already halfway thru the regular season!
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Post by trollhunter on Mar 29, 2017 11:05:57 GMT -5
Matches this week with NCAA bid/seeding implications:
Today: Hawaii versus Pepperdine (+Pepp 3-2)
Weekend: FIU versus FSU (+FSU 3-2) FIU versus FAU (+FIU 3-2) FAU versus UCLA (+UCLA 3-2) LSU versus GSU (+LSU 3-2) GCU versus AZ (+AZ 4-1) LBSU versus Hawaii (+LBSU 3-2)
If anyone is able to watch any of them, please share your thoughts on the teams.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 2, 2017 16:32:11 GMT -5
Several close matches (above) have firmed up the NCAA Beach bid scenario after week 5. Added AZ to the Underdog list. Let me know if you see it differently or if I left another team off the list.
*West Bids (3): 1. USC - lock 2. PEPPERDINE – near lock 3. UCLA – lock West Underdogs: LBSU or Hawaii could swap with Pepp or UCLA, if they finish stronger. Pepperdine just needs splits the rest of season for bid. Key matches left: GCU, LBSU, Hawaii x2, Stetson, FIU, FSU x2.
*At-Large Bids (2): 1. LBSU – near lock 2. HAWAII - near lock At-Large Underdogs: AZ, GCU, FAU
LBSU just needs to avoid multiple losses to underdogs. Key matches left: Pepperdine, GCU, AZ, UCLA, USC, Hawaii. Hawaii needs to avoid a loss to underdogs, or needs a top5 win. Key matches left: Pepperdine x2, FAU, GCU, USC, LBSU. AZ must win all but 1 match. Must beat LBSU and either UCLA/USC. Key matches left: LBSU, UCLA, UCLA/USC. GCU must win all but 1 match left. Key matches left: Pepperdine, LBSU, FAU, Hawaii/USC. FAU must win all but 1 match. Key matches are: GSU, FSU, GCU, Hawaii/USC, CCSA.
*East Bids (3): 1. FSU – lock 2. LSU – near lock 3. other CCSA team of FIU, FAU, GSU (Likely decided at CCSA tourny). East Underdogs: Stetson, S. Carolina
LSU just needs to avoid 2 losses to CCSA teams below them. Key matches: GSU, CCSA tourney. FIU must beat Stetson, split with GSU and beat lower CCSA. Key matches: GSU, Stetson, Pepperdine, FSU, CCSA. GSU must win all EAST except FSU and 1 other. Key matches are: FAU, FIU, LSU, CCSA. FAU must split with FSU and win all other EAST. Key matches: GSU, FSU, Aloha, CCSA. Stetson must beat FIU, win all ASUN and hope CCSA teams split. Key matches: FIU, Pepperdine. S. Carolina must split with FSU and win all others. Key matches: FIU, FAU, FSU, GSU, CCSA.
If there is interest I will begin criteria comparisons next week for bubble teams.
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Post by bill on Apr 2, 2017 17:00:30 GMT -5
I think that you can 'X' CAL off of that list Trollhunter
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 3, 2017 17:08:27 GMT -5
Here is a list of the important NCAA Beach matches this week #6. NCAA seeding in West and At-Large will be clearer. A favorite for East #3 bid could emerge at FSU tournament.
Wednesday: Pepperdine hosts GCU (+Pep 4-1) Pepperdine hosts LBSU (+Pep 3-2) GCU vs LBSU (+LBSU 5-0)
Weekend: Hawaii hosts Pep x2 (split 1-1) UCLA hosts LBSU (+UCLA 3-2) UCLA hosts AZ (+UCLA 4-1) LBSU vs AZ (+LBSU 4-1) FIU vs SCarolina (+SCU 5-0) FIU vs GSU (+FIU 4-1) GSU vs FAU (+GSU 3-2) GSU vs SCarolina (GSU +3+2) FAU vs SCarolina (+SCU 3-2)
If you get to see any of these matches, please PM me or post here with your thoughts on the teams.
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Post by rainmaker on Apr 5, 2017 6:11:57 GMT -5
Was in Miami this weekend. Impressed with FAU on Day one, ones and twos beat UCLA, the fours had a dig and swing to win match in third at like 19-18, but eventually lost 23-21, and 3-2 as a team. Then On Day two, not impressed, as they lost to ASU and FIU, all by 3-2 scores. UCLA class of the field, holding all other opponents to 0 or 1 point. Believe FSU, LSU will get 2 of the spots, with the group of Stetson, FIU, SCU, FAU getting the third East spot.
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Post by lbsandfan on Apr 5, 2017 10:46:45 GMT -5
Can someone please post what date the bids will be announced?
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 5, 2017 16:09:17 GMT -5
Can someone please post what date the bids will be announced? Sunday, April 30. Just over 3 weeks left.
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