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Post by txjulia on Apr 14, 2017 13:57:11 GMT -5
Stetson lost to Pepperdine this morning and FIU. Still to play GCU this afternoon.
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Post by beachbum96 on Apr 14, 2017 15:26:57 GMT -5
Unfortunate injury to their #1 seed wed @ FCCU made things difficult today. FIU match was very close. GCU still to come.
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Post by txjulia on Apr 14, 2017 18:03:33 GMT -5
GCU defeats Stetson 3-2
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Post by rainmaker on Apr 15, 2017 8:09:58 GMT -5
Tallahassee eliminated FAU last week, and Stetson this week. Have to win against ranked teams, play your way in.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 15, 2017 18:21:18 GMT -5
Only change this weekend is East bid #3 as FIU edges ahead of TCU I think. Will do full criteria comparison later. Basically FIU just has to match performance of other bubbles.
East Underdogs:
GSU – must beat LSU or FSU in CCSA tourny. And outperform FIU.
FAU and SCarolina – must win CCSA beating LSU and FSU.
TCU needs FIU and all other bubbles to do poorly in CCSA Tourny.
Stetson is out of the running.
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Post by sandyfan on Apr 15, 2017 21:15:07 GMT -5
I think the bid goes to whichever team, out of GSU, FIU, USC, does the best at CCSA. South Carolina has 2 wins over FIU and the last one was 5-0. It will be interesting to see how the pools are split up because 2 of those 3 are going to be in the same pool.
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Post by sandyfan on Apr 15, 2017 21:41:46 GMT -5
Pools are out for CCSA. FSU,USC,FIU,Tulane, UNCW in one pool. LSU,GSU,FAU,Charleston, and UAB in the other. I think the advantage goes to Georgia St. Seeds went FSU,LSU,GSU, USC, FIU,FAU. Should be an interesting weekend. Wish I could be there.
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Post by rainmaker on Apr 16, 2017 9:17:09 GMT -5
Interesting pools, I assumed FAU had no shot, but they have beaten everyone in that pool I believe. (Dont think they played Charleston, I take that back), I feel they got the seeding about right.. Still like SCU chances.
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Post by beachbum96 on Apr 16, 2017 18:49:15 GMT -5
Still think It's between FIU and TCU with FIU having to prove themselves in the tourney. They looked good last weekend. All others must win the CCSA and I put those chances at maybe 1% max. Mathematically possible but realistic...no. Somebody, shock the world! Can't wait to watch!
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 16, 2017 23:44:26 GMT -5
Stetson can no longer catch TCU for East #3 spot.
TCU vs Stetson (assuming both win remaining matches)
1) RegRec = TCU both beat FAU/GSU and lost to LSU/FSU, differences are below: TCU (9-2 region) beat FIU Stetson (19-5 region) beat SCU, but lost to GSU and FIU.
2) SoS = STETSON?? Need someone to calculate via Excel please. It is very close using approximation. Will depend on tourney matchups.
3) H2H = TIE (did not play)
4) ComOpp = TCU (via GSU, FIU, LMU)
5) OvRec = TCU Stetson (20-13) lost to GSU, GCU, FIU and LMU TCU (16-8) beat FIU, LMU, ASU but lost to GCU, AZ, ASU
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 17, 2017 0:04:17 GMT -5
FIU may be slightly behind TCU for East #3 as Beachbum suggested. Will need to calculate SoS to see.
FIU vs TCU (assuming TCU wins final 2 matches):
1) RegRec = TCU - both lost to LSU/FSU and both beat FAU/GSU. TCU 9-2 region. Beat FIU FIU 18-5 region. Beat Stetson, but lost to SCarolina
2) SoS = ?? Need someone to calculate via Excel. I think FIU may be slightly ahead.
3) H2H = TCU
4) ComOpp = FIU (TCU vs Cal Poly, FIU vs ASU and GCU)
5) OvRec = TIE FIU 20-12 beat GCU, Stetson and lost SCarolina, Cal Poly, TCU TCU 16-8 beat FIU, Cal Poly and lost to AZ, ASU, GCU
All the categories are very close.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 17, 2017 0:17:29 GMT -5
TCU verus SCarolina
1) RegRec = TCU - both lost to LSU/FSU and both beat FIU/FAU. Difference is: TCU (9-2 region) beat GSU, SCU (20-6 region) lost to GSU, Stetson
2) SoS = ?? Need someone to calculate via Excel. Not clear.
3) H2H = TIE (did not play)
4) ComOpp = TIE (TCU better vs GSU, while SCU better vs GCU)
5) OvRec = SCarolina TCU (16-8) beat GSU but lost to GCU, AZ, ASU SCU (21-7) beat GCU, but lost to GSU, Stetson
It still appears to me that SCarolina must beat LSU or FSU to get ahead of TCU in ComOpp. And more good wins than losses to stay ahead in OvRec. But it may just come down to SoS.
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 17, 2017 0:36:54 GMT -5
TCU verus GSU
1) RegRec = TCU - both lost to LSU/FSU and both beat FAU. Difference is: TCU (9-2 region) beat GSU, FIU GSU (17-6 region) beat Stetson, SCarolina but lost to Stetson, TCU, FIU, FAU
2) SoS = ?? Need someone to calculate via Excel. Not clear.
3) H2H = TCU
4) ComOpp = TCU (TCU better vs FIU, GSU while GSU better via GCU)
5) OvRec = TIE?? TCU (16-8) beat GSU, FIU but lost to GCU, ASU, AZ GSU (21-7) beat GCU, Stetson, SCarolina but lost to Stetson, TCU, FIU, FAU
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Post by rainmaker on Apr 17, 2017 11:24:53 GMT -5
trollhunter, if I compare the schedules of GSU, TCU, FIU, SCU, some things kinda stick out. GSU and FIU have played vs a ranked foe 15 times, with TCU 12 times, and SCU only 11. FIU is 6-9 in those games, and 7 of them were against top 5 teams, GSU 4-11. I'm not really concerned with how many times someone beat an unranked team, but FIU and GSU have a loss vs an unranked team. As far as SoS goes, I have to give it to FIU,(of the four). CCSA tourney will hopefully give us some separation. I think TCU sitting at home will hurt them, one of the other three schools will have a great tourney, imo..
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Post by trollhunter on Apr 17, 2017 11:56:51 GMT -5
trollhunter, if I compare the schedules of GSU, TCU, FIU, SCU, some things kinda stick out. GSU and FIU have played vs a ranked foe 15 times, with TCU 12 times, and SCU only 11. FIU is 6-9 in those games, and 7 of them were against top 5 teams, GSU 4-11. I'm not really concerned with how many times someone beat an unranked team, but FIU and GSU have a loss vs an unranked team. As far as SoS goes, I have to give it to FIU,(of the four). CCSA tourney will hopefully give us some separation. I think TCU sitting at home will hurt them, one of the other three schools will have a great tourney, imo.. I agree that TCU off and playing weak at the end will likely hurt them. One of CCSA bubble teams is likely to have a good weekend. The NCAA does not look at AVCA rankings at all. Don't use them either for indoor Women's or Men's. It is just a media hype. All the NCAA looks at is the 5 criteria explained in detail at start of this thread. Regarding SoS - it is purely a math thing. How many wins and losses did your opponents have. No subjectivity about facing "tougher" or ranked opponents. Was hoping someone else would use Excel to calculate it. If not, I can do a quick approximation later in week.
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