|
Post by mikegarrison on Nov 5, 2019 2:40:30 GMT -5
Blue, can you run simulations if Washington wins out? As I understand it, he already has. I believe what he's doing here is looking through the 1000 simulated seasons for all the ones where team X won N games, then looking at how often in that limited set they finished #1, #2, #3, etc.
|
|
|
Post by gobruins on Nov 5, 2019 8:09:15 GMT -5
What does UCLA have to do to get a seed? Current simulation shows them 5-3 in their last 8 matches for an RPI of #23. If they finish 6-2, would that get them into the top 16?
|
|
trojansc
Legend
![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png)
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 29,072
|
Post by trojansc on Nov 5, 2019 8:20:05 GMT -5
Louisville chances of earning NCAA tournament bid now considering their recent losses? I'm gonna guess about 99% chance. I think Louisville would have to lose all 6 of their remaining matches. Hard to see them not coming up with a win or two against Miami(Home and home) or home against Syracuse and Notre Dame.
|
|
|
Post by tomclen on Nov 5, 2019 8:29:46 GMT -5
One of the questions I had - what are the chances Penn State ends up with Pittsburgh if Penn State is not a seed. I think the answer is it is very unlikely - they will most likely ship Penn State somewhere as there is enough to fill out a Pitt subregional w/o PSU. I need to look at what happens if Penn State does get a seed - is there a decent opponent for Penn State w/o 'cheating' and flying someone in when there are drive-in alternatives. Probably gong to be Dayton/VCU and then maybe Towson (are they within 400 miles?) or Princeton. Florida is going to have the UCF, Gulf Coast, Florida State subregional - there is no getting round that. Towson, MD is 156 miles to State College, PA
|
|
trojansc
Legend
![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_yellow.png)
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 29,072
|
Post by trojansc on Nov 5, 2019 8:38:17 GMT -5
I'm guessing it's pretty unlikely that James Madison finishes T50 unless they win out? VCU and Dayton both with two more losses and both still finish T50 ?? ![:o](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/shocked.png)
|
|
|
Post by NittanyLions on Nov 5, 2019 8:38:57 GMT -5
One of the questions I had - what are the chances Penn State ends up with Pittsburgh if Penn State is not a seed. I think the answer is it is very unlikely - they will most likely ship Penn State somewhere as there is enough to fill out a Pitt subregional w/o PSU. I need to look at what happens if Penn State does get a seed - is there a decent opponent for Penn State w/o 'cheating' and flying someone in when there are drive-in alternatives. Probably gong to be Dayton/VCU and then maybe Towson (are they within 400 miles?) or Princeton. Florida is going to have the UCF, Gulf Coast, Florida State subregional - there is no getting round that. Towson, MD is 156 miles to State College, PA
I say we all sign a petition and send it the NCAA selection committee requesting that they send Penn State to the Pacific NW this year. Talk about throwing the dawgs a bone.
|
|
|
Post by tomclen on Nov 5, 2019 8:41:39 GMT -5
Towson, MD is 156 miles to State College, PA I say we all sign a petition and send it the NCAA selection committee requesting that they send Penn State to the Pacific NW this year. Talk about throwing the dawgs a bone.
That would be a sweet 2nd round matchup! ![](https://i.imgur.com/COHZQOH.jpg)
|
|
|
Post by NittanyLions on Nov 5, 2019 8:45:36 GMT -5
I say we all sign a petition and send it the NCAA selection committee requesting that they send Penn State to the Pacific NW this year. Talk about throwing the dawgs a bone.
That would be a sweet 2nd round matchup! ![](https://i.imgur.com/COHZQOH.jpg)
Some would even say it's was a smoking proposition.
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png)
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,572
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 5, 2019 9:10:46 GMT -5
If it works out this way, I'm skittish about that Wisconsin regional BAYLOR vs BYU Florida vs. UK TEXAS vs Creighton Marquette vs. Minnesota WISCONSIN vs Hawaii Nebraska vs. Washington PITT vs Rice Stanford vs TAMU I will happily take that Baylor regional. If BYU and Utah don't get a seed - I can see BYU going to Hawaii as BYU would have to fly somewhere and they would be among the top RPI teams w/o a seed. Rice could be another destination.
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png)
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,572
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 5, 2019 9:13:54 GMT -5
You really think there is a difference between #6 and #7, whoever those turn out to be? Well, it all depends, doesn't it? Let's say it's 2% harder to beat #6 than #7. Well, then 98 times every century, it won't matter. But there are those two times.... I get it - but it does seem rather random on whether #6 will be better than #7 since they mostly just use RPI. But then you also have #15 vs. #14 - where the chances of playing that team is greater and possibly more significant than the #6/7 that could have an upset prior to that match.
|
|
bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png) ![*](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/stars/star_blue.png)
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,572
|
Post by bluepenquin on Nov 5, 2019 9:25:02 GMT -5
Blue, can you run simulations if Washington wins out? Win the rest - 6.6% chance: 2nd - 1 (1.5%) 3rd - 0 4th - 8 (12.1%) 5th - 28 (42.4%) 6th - 16 (24.2%) 7th - 10 (15.2%) 8th - 2 (3.0%) 9th - 1 (1.5%) Lose one more - 19.9%: 4th - 5 (2.5%) 5th - 17 (8.5%) 6th - 45 (22.6%) 7th - 48 (24.1%) 8th - 40 (20.1%) 9th - 23 (11.6%) 10th - 20 (10.1%) 11th - 1 (0.5%)
|
|
|
Post by Diggin' Water on Nov 5, 2019 11:58:10 GMT -5
Hey Blue, are you able to run simulations if Hawaii wins out or loses one match?
|
|
|
Post by bracketbuster on Nov 5, 2019 12:04:49 GMT -5
Here is my current bracket for fun (not to be taken too seriously). #15 and 16 seeds are in jeopardy to Penn State who probably is in a better position. 1. Texas, Cal, Dayton, Prairie View A&M 16. BYU, Utah, Cal Poly, Wright State 9. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Florida Gulf Coast 8. Minnesota, USC, South Dakota, Princeton 5. Stanford, UCSB, Towson, Fairfield 12. Texas A&M, Colorado State, Washington State, Texas State 13. Hawaii, UCLA, South Carolina, American 4. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Michigan, Robert Morris 3. Baylor, Georgia, Stephen F. Austin, Albany 14. Creighton, Missouri, Iowa State, Samford 11. Kentucky, Purdue, Notre Dame, Morehead State 6. Nebraska, San Diego, Northern Iowa, Northern Colorado 7. Washington, Western Kentucky, Ole Miss, Winthrop 10. Marquette, Louisville, Illinois, Miami-OH 15. Rice, Penn State, Pepperdine, New Mexico State 2. Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Milwaukee, Howard Imagine a regional of Texas, Minnesota, Florida, Penn State. Yikes. I think Texas, Baylor, Wisconsin, Stanford are the top 4 in that order if they all do what they should do (and Texas beats Baylor again). Then I've got Pittsburgh at 5. After that, Washington, Nebraska & Minnesota for me are 6-8 in some order.
|
|
|
Post by n00b on Nov 5, 2019 12:11:03 GMT -5
I'm guessing it's pretty unlikely that James Madison finishes T50 unless they win out? VCU and Dayton both with two more losses and both still finish T50 ?? ![:o](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/shocked.png) :o :o For them both to get in, I think Dayton would have to win the regular season match (it IS at Dayton), then VCU win the tournament the following weekend. VCU's best win is North Carolina and their schedule wasn't even particularly tough. Dayton will have played between 7 and 9 Top 50 teams in their non-conference (with a win over Michigan). VCU will have played 3 (no wins). Dayton 2019 will look a lot like that High Point team that got in (plus one quality win).
|
|
|
Post by ay2013 on Nov 5, 2019 12:54:48 GMT -5
Blue, can you run simulations if Washington wins out? Win the rest - 6.6% chance: 2nd - 1 (1.5%) 3rd - 0 4th - 8 (12.1%) 5th - 28 (42.4%) 6th - 16 (24.2%) 7th - 10 (15.2%) 8th - 2 (3.0%) 9th - 1 (1.5%) Lose one more - 19.9%: 4th - 5 (2.5%) 5th - 17 (8.5%) 6th - 45 (22.6%) 7th - 48 (24.1%) 8th - 40 (20.1%) 9th - 23 (11.6%) 10th - 20 (10.1%) 11th - 1 (0.5%) Thanks!
|
|