Bracketology (11/19)

[haw2991]

Nov 24, 2019 23:29:20 GMT -5 pavsec5row10 said:

Nov 24, 2019 23:12:52 GMT -5 haw2991 said:

Another bracket I made for fun because I literally have nothing to do right now..... Poke holes it in

1. Baylor, Stephen F. Austin, Georgia, Alabama State
16. BYU, Utah, UCSB, Denver

8. Nebraska, Missouri, San Diego, SE Missouri State
9. Florida, UCF, Florida State, Kennesaw State

4. Wisconsin, Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Milwaukee
13. Marquette, Purdue, Dayton, Ball State

5. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, American, Sacred Heart
12. Creighton, Louisville, Oklahoma, Samford

2. Texas, Texas State, Cal, Albany
15. Texas A&M, Rice, UCLA, Winthrop

7. Kentucky, Western Kentucky, Wright State, Northern Kentucky
10. Minnesota, South Dakota, Washington State, Fairfield

3. Stanford, Cal Poly, Illinois, Princeton
14. Penn State, Norte Dame, Towson, Howard

6. Washington, Michigan, Pepperdine, Northern Colorado
11. Hawaii, USC, Colorado State, New Mexico State

---

Deciding who gets seeded between BYU and Utah is truly a toss-up. BYU has the H2H victory and the victory against Stanford. The big red flag of course is not winning there conference. Utah has 2 T25 victories against Kentucky and Washington. They also have defeated USC (2x), UCLA (2x), Cal Poly, and Cal. In the end, I selected BYU because of the H2H but I have no arguments if the committee decided to sent BYU to Utah.

I just could not seed Western Kentucky because there only quality wins are Rice (2x), Northern Kentucky (T50), Arizona State, and Ohio State.


Teams on the Bubble I left Out (RPI from Figstats): South Carolina (41), VCU (48) , Green Bay (46), Arizona State (51), Coastal Carolina (52),
Georgia Tech (56), St. John's and Villanova in particular could make some noise this upcoming week.

I have three Horizon teams making the tournament; travel being a key factor. I also selected Pepperdine to be one of the last in the tournament because they have a T25 win against USD..... However, that win is definitely not set in stone and may fluctuate back to T26-50.

I might leave Milwaukee out as well since their only top 50 wins are conference foes.  Alabama State is a drive in to Florida.  

Alabama State to Florida is 350 miles.

Kennesaw State to Florida is 353 miles. It's basically the same distance.....


If I may ask, who would you replace Milwaukee with? Travel expenditure is important and I think the committee will take advantage of it with this opportunity....

[horns1]

I have my top seeds as follows based on the matches this past week, the movement in RPI as of tonight, and how it benefits me the most!

1 - Baylor
2 - Stanford
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Texas
5 - Pittsburgh
6 - Nebraska
7 - Washington
8 - Kentucky
9 - Minnesota
10 - Florida
11 - Hawaii
12 - Marquette
13 - Creighton
14 - Utah
15 - Texas A&M
16 - Penn State (can definitely move up if they win against Minnesota and/or Wisconsin)

[haw2991]

Nov 24, 2019 23:34:09 GMT -5 horns1 said:

I have my top seeds as follows based on the matches this past week, the movement in RPI as of tonight, and how it benefits me the most!

1 - Baylor
2 - Stanford
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Texas
5 - Pittsburgh
6 - Nebraska
7 - Washington
8 - Kentucky
9 - Minnesota
10 - Florida
11 - Hawaii
12 - Marquette
13 - Creighton
14 - Utah
15 - Texas A&M
16 - Penn State (can definitely move up if they win against Minnesota and Wisconsin)

Not happening... lol

[horns1]

Nov 24, 2019 23:35:12 GMT -5 haw2991 said:

Nov 24, 2019 23:34:09 GMT -5 horns1 said:

I have my top seeds as follows based on the matches this past week, the movement in RPI as of tonight, and how it benefits me the most!

1 - Baylor
2 - Stanford
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Texas
5 - Pittsburgh
6 - Nebraska
7 - Washington
8 - Kentucky
9 - Minnesota
10 - Florida
11 - Hawaii
12 - Marquette
13 - Creighton
14 - Utah
15 - Texas A&M
16 - Penn State (can definitely move up if they win against Minnesota and Wisconsin)

Not happening... lol

[haw2991]

Nov 24, 2019 23:38:14 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 24, 2019 23:35:12 GMT -5 haw2991 said:

Not happening... lol

[eotexas5]

Nov 24, 2019 23:34:09 GMT -5 horns1 said:

I have my top seeds as follows based on the matches this past week, the movement in RPI as of tonight, and how it benefits me the most!

1 - Baylor
2 - Stanford
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Texas
5 - Pittsburgh
6 - Nebraska
7 - Washington
8 - Kentucky
9 - Minnesota
10 - Florida
11 - Hawaii
12 - Marquette
13 - Creighton
14 - Utah
15 - Texas A&M
16 - Penn State (can definitely move up if they win against Minnesota and/or Wisconsin)

For Texas to go from the #1 seed to the #4 seed for losing to the #3 team, on the road, in five sets, is...interesting to me. I appreciate your opinion though.

[horns1]

Nov 25, 2019 0:26:04 GMT -5 eotexas5 said:

Nov 24, 2019 23:34:09 GMT -5 horns1 said:

I have my top seeds as follows based on the matches this past week, the movement in RPI as of tonight, and how it benefits me the most!

1 - Baylor
2 - Stanford
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Texas
5 - Pittsburgh
6 - Nebraska
7 - Washington
8 - Kentucky
9 - Minnesota
10 - Florida
11 - Hawaii
12 - Marquette
13 - Creighton
14 - Utah
15 - Texas A&M
16 - Penn State (can definitely move up if they win against Minnesota and/or Wisconsin)

For Texas to go from the #1 seed to the #4 seed for losing to the #3 team, on the road, in five sets, is...interesting to me. I appreciate your opinion though.

Texas losing at Baylor was just one of the outcomes this week which affected us negatively.  That loss in itself is not the lone factor in my projections.

- We now have 3 overall losses; Baylor has only 1 loss

- Rice lost to Western Kentucky at home

- Minnesota lost to Nebraska at home

- USC lost to Oregon at home, and fell from RPI #21 to RPI #26 (which results in our win over them falling outside the Top 25 parameter)

- We fell from the #2 RPI team to #3 (overtaken by Wisconsin, who gained a win over RPI Top 10 team Nebraska)

Gotta beat ISU on Saturday.

[blue-footedbooby]

Nov 24, 2019 17:17:57 GMT -5 HawaiiVB said:

Nov 24, 2019 17:05:41 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Washington already had 2 wins over the committee's #3 team Wisconsin in the initial reveal.  Three weeks later, they still have 2 wins over a Top 5 Wisconsin team.

And Hawai'i beat Washington once, so what's the point?

My point is Hawaii's portfolio improves each time Washington wins.  Shouldn't Washington's portfolio improve each time Wisconsin wins.  Except in this case x 2.

[ay2013]

Nov 25, 2019 0:31:20 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 25, 2019 0:26:04 GMT -5 eotexas5 said:

For Texas to go from the #1 seed to the #4 seed for losing to the #3 team, on the road, in five sets, is...interesting to me. I appreciate your opinion though.

Texas losing at Baylor was just one of the outcomes this week which affected us negatively.  That loss in itself is not the lone factor in my projections.

- We now have 3 overall losses; Baylor has only 1 loss

- Rice lost to Western Kentucky at home

- Minnesota lost to Nebraska at home

- USC lost to Oregon at home, and fell from RPI #21 to RPI #26 (which results in our win over them falling outside the Top 25 parameter)

- We fell from the #2 RPI team to #3 (overtaken by Wisconsin, who gained a win over RPI Top 10 team Nebraska)

Gotta beat ISU on Saturday.

well.... you seem to have changed your outlook from 16 hours ago

Nov 24, 2019 10:07:38 GMT -5 horns1 said:

Nov 23, 2019 20:57:08 GMT -5 ay2013 said:

In this futures I’d probably say

1- Baylor
8- Kentucky
9- Hawaii
16- either Rice/ A&M/ BYU

2- Stanford
7- Washington
10- Florida
15- either Rice/ A&M/ BYU

3- Pitt
6- Nebraska
11- Minnesota
14- Marquette

4- Texas
5- Wisconsin
12- Creighton
13- Penn State

So, as of today, your are suggesting/believing that the committee would drop Texas from the #1 seed to the #4 seed after losing on the road to previous #3 seed Baylor (and #1 RPI / future #1 seed) in 5 sets?  Okay.

[txnut]

haw2991 Sacred Heart is not driving distance to Pitt so someone else likely to go there like Princeton. I also think Howard gets flown out as its easy since they are in DC. 
Oklahoma likely goes to A&M as they are driving distance and Creighton is not. 

[rogerdodger]

Nov 24, 2019 13:55:53 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I have absolutely no idea what we are going to do with the loser of Northern Kentucky and Milwaukee.

Would we really give FOUR bids to the Horizon?

Milwaukee potentially has 5 Top 50 wins ............. all in the 40s. Northern Kentucky beat Cincinnati, a T25 win in the non-conference.

Wright State won, outright, the regular season Horizon League. RPI 7th best conference in country. Ran into a smoking hot NKU team in the semis and fell short (3-1 loss). Several Top 50 wins, win over Notre Dame @nd...if HL only gets two in I don’t see how the committee leaves them out. If HL gets three - I think WSU is a lock.

[lovethis]

Nov 23, 2019 20:44:01 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

What are the odds the Horizon gets only 1, gets 2, gets 3 or gets 4 in the tournament? If Milwaukee wins tomorrow - they could end up with 4 teams in the T50. W/O looking too hard at the details - I am going to guess 2 is most likely and 3 is more likely than just 1. Green Bay is going to be tough to keep out - and Wright State could be tough to keep out. And then Northern Kentucky has a T25 win which not many on the bubble have.

Recent move back to my hometown in Ohio. Had a chance to attend Horizon League tourney this weekend as well as a couple NKU matches and three WSU regular season. Feel the need to chime in here - the semifinals between NKU and WSU was high quality volleyball. Much better than the other semis and the finals were no comparison. Anyone paying attention to the HL would say NKU is peaking at the right time and WSU is clearly the other top team. It is a tough league and the regular season champion, WSU, should get the at large - regardless of drive in, fly in. Teams that earn it, should be rewarded. I don’t believe it should come down to one weekend - the “bigger” conferences don’t do this - they reward regular season champs especially when they play a true home and away conference schedule.

[brybast]

Nov 24, 2019 16:13:23 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 24, 2019 16:08:39 GMT -5 bprtbone said:

Dayton wins the A10 tourney. Does VCU have a chance on the bubble?

The bubble is more crowded than the 405 freeway. At this point, they are most likely OUT.

Only one top 50 win (over #45 Dayton) and a 3-3 record vs. RPI 51-100 sounds like a problem for VCU

[brybast]

Nov 24, 2019 18:33:29 GMT -5 brickred said:

Likelihood of South Dakota getting an at-large? With all of the midwest teams hosting I'm hoping that they are in.

I'm thinking no. It would've been a stretch with zero top-50 wins, but now with a bad loss (#123 Nebraska-Omaha) there's almost no way.

[trojansc]

Nov 25, 2019 7:47:48 GMT -5 rogerdodger said:

Nov 24, 2019 13:55:53 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I have absolutely no idea what we are going to do with the loser of Northern Kentucky and Milwaukee.

Would we really give FOUR bids to the Horizon?

Milwaukee potentially has 5 Top 50 wins ............. all in the 40s. Northern Kentucky beat Cincinnati, a T25 win in the non-conference.

Wright State won, outright, the regular season Horizon League. RPI 7th best conference in country. Ran into a smoking hot NKU team in the semis and fell short (3-1 loss). Several Top 50 wins, win over Notre Dame @nd...if HL only gets two in I don’t see how the committee leaves them out. If HL gets three - I think WSU is a lock.

I’m with you — because of the big non-conference win over Notre Dame.

If they only get one more — it should fo to Milwaukee. Milwaukee beat GB 3x and I can’t accept GB getting in above them.