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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2019 14:19:48 GMT -5
Please, then, enlighten me. You think Hawaii should be 6-8? That I don't know, but I'm guessing Florida is not likely in the top 8, of the three, I'm thinking Nebraska will get the 6 seed. Hawai'i has no chance for a 6-8 seed, never did, because of the conference. Well if not Neb, Wash and Florida, that basically leaves Kentucky or Minnesota to also crack the top 8. And I think Kentucky's resume is weak compared to the others and Minnesota has the worst RPI of the bunch. |
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Post by blue-footedbooby on Nov 25, 2019 14:24:14 GMT -5
I think we posted concurrently. See my above post and then explain why you think Nebraska is 6. What you said is true. And this is also true: Washington has 3 losses worse than Nebraska's worst. I would be concerned if they were bad losses. But when all the loses by both teams were against tourney bound teams it gets into splitting hairs. I don't think it's necessary to dig deeper into player injuries and what not when the differences in losses are not substantive. H2H opponents is a much better reflection of a teams strength IMO, especially when there are soooooo many common opponents. |
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Post by haw2991 on Nov 25, 2019 14:24:17 GMT -5
Assuming only one of the two (BYU/Utah) are seeded. I'm certain the committee will sent the other team there as it's a literal drive-in. Based on travel, UCSB/Cal Poly/Colorado State are probably the only at-large options that can be sent to Provo/Utah. Ok, with you so far. But as the highest ranked of those 3 teams wouldn't SB be the least likely to be the #3 in that bracket? Especially when you have Poly, who are below SB in RPI as #2 in their bracket? Again, not saying you're wrong. Just trying to understand the thinking. I'm not exactly sure what you're referring too or what you're trying to understand? Are you saying SB has the highest RPI amongst Cal Poly and Colorado State because that's not the case. Colorado State is currently at (25), UCSB (32), and Cal Poly (38). If any of these teams were sent to Utah/Provo; they would be the #3 team in the bracket. If any of these teams were sent to Stanford, they would be the #2 team. If you're trying to understand why I have Cal Poly going to Stanford its because it's a 100 miles closer compared to Santa Barbara.... |
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Post by HawaiiVB on Nov 25, 2019 15:05:12 GMT -5
That I don't know, but I'm guessing Florida is not likely in the top 8, of the three, I'm thinking Nebraska will get the 6 seed. Hawai'i has no chance for a 6-8 seed, never did, because of the conference. Well if not Neb, Wash and Florida, that basically leaves Kentucky or Minnesota to also crack the top 8. And I think Kentucky's resume is weak compared to the others and Minnesota has the worst RPI of the bunch. Right, however, the committee historically loves Minne.'s butt of late. I know the members rotate, just saying. |
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Post by brybast on Nov 25, 2019 15:39:54 GMT -5
I want to know WTH was the Wazzu coach thinking when she made this nonconference schedule?
Texas Southern 324
Utah State 300
Idaho State 277
Stony Brook 236
Idaho 218
Portland 195
Houston Baptist 158
UT Arlington 128
Liberty 114
Iowa 94
James Madison 58
I mean really, she might as well have just started a bonfire and thrown the letters RPI into it.
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Post by vbfanantic on Nov 25, 2019 19:03:22 GMT -5
For some reason, I feel like the committee is going to go with Baylor, Wisconsin, Stanford and Pitt as the top four seeds. It just seems like they give every benefit of the doubt to non-B1G and non-Pac teams. Don't get me wrong, I don't think those are the best four teams personally, I just think that is what they are likely to do.
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 25, 2019 19:25:55 GMT -5
For some reason, I feel like the committee is going to go with Baylor, Wisconsin, Stanford and Pitt as the top four seeds. It just seems like they give every benefit of the doubt to non-B1G and non-Pac teams. Don't get me wrong, I don't think those are the best four teams personally, I just think that is what they are likely to do. Texas is not a B1G or PAC team. |
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Post by lesmizuno on Nov 25, 2019 20:03:28 GMT -5
I want to know WTH was the Wazzu coach thinking when she made this nonconference schedule? Texas Southern 324 Utah State 300 Idaho State 277 Stony Brook 236 Idaho 218 Portland 195 Houston Baptist 158 UT Arlington 128 Liberty 114 Iowa 94 James Madison 58 I mean really, she might as well have just started a bonfire and thrown the letters RPI into it. They end up playing enough high RPI teams and matches in conference. You schedule easy in non-con to make sure your are even eligible for the tournament. |
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Post by hammer on Nov 25, 2019 20:12:01 GMT -5
I want to know WTH was the Wazzu coach thinking when she made this nonconference schedule? Texas Southern 324 Utah State 300 Idaho State 277 Stony Brook 236 Idaho 218 Portland 195 Houston Baptist 158 UT Arlington 128 Liberty 114 Iowa 94 James Madison 58 I mean really, she might as well have just started a bonfire and thrown the letters RPI into it. They end up playing enough high RPI teams and matches in conference. You schedule easy in non-con to make sure your are even eligible for the tournament. WSU was blessed with a boatload of freshman entering the 2019 season, so there is the thought that you schedule easy when your lineup is young versus one that is senior laden. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Nov 25, 2019 20:46:22 GMT -5
It's the difference between "scheduling to get into the tournament" versus "scheduling to get a seed" versus "scheduling to get a top-half seed".
If you assess your most realistic option is that you need to just make sure you get in to the tournament at all, then for a PAC-12 team that WSU schedule is a good choice. You get a lot of wins, a lot of reps for your team to improve with, and you have a tough enough SOS just with conference opponents.
If you think you have a seed-quality team, you make sure you get a few more top-25 teams in your OOC schedule. And if you are gunning for a top-8 seed or even a top-4 seed, you need some OOC wins over top-8 and top-4 opponents.
Unfortunately for WSU, they didn't win enough matches like the two they just played in Arizona. So now they are at serious risk of not getting in at all. But if they had just done everything the same except gone 4-0 versus the Arizona schools, there would be no issue with them right now.
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Post by pavsec5row10 on Nov 25, 2019 21:04:54 GMT -5
I might leave Milwaukee out as well since their only top 50 wins are conference foes. Alabama State is a drive in to Florida. Alabama State to Florida is 350 miles. Kennesaw State to Florida is 353 miles. It's basically the same distance..... If I may ask, who would you replace Milwaukee with? Travel expenditure is important and I think the committee will take advantage of it with this opportunity.... Oh, I didn't realize Kennesaw State was near Atlanta, was thinking more like Tennessee. Just know Florida usually gets the SWAC winner, but would make better bracket integrity for Alabama State to be at Baylor. Hmm, looking at the bubble teams, not really a lot stands out that would be any better than Milwaukee. VCU eh maybe. ASU-no, Coastal Carolina - no, Georgia Tech, maybe? Villanova is reaching, and that 1 top25 win isn't enough to move them up that far. |
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Post by haw2991 on Nov 25, 2019 21:16:59 GMT -5
Alabama State to Florida is 350 miles. Kennesaw State to Florida is 353 miles. It's basically the same distance..... If I may ask, who would you replace Milwaukee with? Travel expenditure is important and I think the committee will take advantage of it with this opportunity.... Oh, I didn't realize Kennesaw State was near Atlanta, was thinking more like Tennessee. Just know Florida usually gets the SWAC winner, but would make better bracket integrity for Alabama State to be at Baylor. Hmm, looking at the bubble teams, not really a lot stands out that would be any better than Milwaukee. VCU eh maybe. ASU-no, Coastal Carolina - no, Georgia Tech, maybe? Villanova is reaching, and that 1 top25 win isn't enough to move them up that far. Villanova still has a legitimate shot if they can win at least one more against Marquette during the Big East tournament..... |
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Post by vbfanantic on Nov 25, 2019 21:33:14 GMT -5
For some reason, I feel like the committee is going to go with Baylor, Wisconsin, Stanford and Pitt as the top four seeds. It just seems like they give every benefit of the doubt to non-B1G and non-Pac teams. Don't get me wrong, I don't think those are the best four teams personally, I just think that is what they are likely to do. Texas is not a B1G or PAC team. Yes, sorry. Should have said, B1G, PAC or Big 12. |
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Post by davethecoug on Nov 25, 2019 23:52:39 GMT -5
It's the difference between "scheduling to get into the tournament" versus "scheduling to get a seed" versus "scheduling to get a top-half seed". If you assess your most realistic option is that you need to just make sure you get in to the tournament at all, then for a PAC-12 team that WSU schedule is a good choice. You get a lot of wins, a lot of reps for your team to improve with, and you have a tough enough SOS just with conference opponents. If you think you have a seed-quality team, you make sure you get a few more top-25 teams in your OOC schedule. And if you are gunning for a top-8 seed or even a top-4 seed, you need some OOC wins over top-8 and top-4 opponents. Unfortunately for WSU, they didn't win enough matches like the two they just played in Arizona. So now they are at serious risk of not getting in at all. But if they had just done everything the same except gone 4-0 versus the Arizona schools, there would be no issue with them right now.
As has been mentioned, Wazzu is a Freshman dominated team. The coaches arranged a moderate non-con schedule against teams that had a 2018 record of 203-168 (54.7% win percentage). The same teams also had a 2017 win percentage of 54.7%. Unfortunately, in 2019, these same teams have only achieved a 150-204 record (42.4% win percentage). This is a huge year to year drop in winning percentage that is massively dragging down Wazzu's RPI.
If the non-con opponents had won 54.7% of their matches, I suspect Wazzu's RPI would be in the high 30's or low 40's.
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Post by brybast on Nov 26, 2019 2:39:48 GMT -5
I want to know WTH was the Wazzu coach thinking when she made this nonconference schedule? Texas Southern 324 Utah State 300 Idaho State 277 Stony Brook 236 Idaho 218 Portland 195 Houston Baptist 158 UT Arlington 128 Liberty 114 Iowa 94 James Madison 58 I mean really, she might as well have just started a bonfire and thrown the letters RPI into it. They end up playing enough high RPI teams and matches in conference. You schedule easy in non-con to make sure your are even eligible for the tournament. They're 22-8. They could've afforded a few losses on the noncon to get a higher RPI. At this point it's their RPI that might not only keep WSU out of the tournament but ASU as well. |
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