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Post by volleyguy on May 17, 2020 15:06:56 GMT -5
I'm not sure what you mean by rationalize in the above sentence. I understand it to mean using a dubious argument to fit a desired result or scenario. Italy is [too] heavily dependent on Egonu. I don't think there is much doubt about that. I’ll rephrase. These are the two statements/ideas I’m having trouble logically accepting both as true: “Italy is a contender, while China is a favorite.” “Italy beat China two times in a row at the last major tournament.” (I misread the World Champ website, they only played twice). You say inconsistency/over-reliance (obviously paraphrasing here) is the explanation for how both can be true. Italy consistently (less strong with only two victories versus three, for sure) beat China while over-relying on Egonu. I’m fine disagreeing here. All 3 teams have weaknesses. I personally just don’t think Italy’s weaknesses are strong enough to knock them down a level from China and Serbia, especially if that next level includes the USA. The 2nd Italy vs China match went to 5, with the final set score 17-15. Italy vs Serbia also went to 5, with the final set score 15-12. I can see the argument that those results put Italy in the same tier as Serbia and China. But that seems to be the extent of your argument. That was one tournament, and resting your argument on the WCH tournament results from 2018 isn't the strongest argument to be made. Egonu is unstoppable when she's on, but she is also not always on (consistently so). That inconsistency, and the belief that the rest of Italy's team doesn't match up with China and Serbia is the basis of my argument. USA's position doesn't really have anything to do with Italy. They're in the next tier simply because I believe that both Serbia and China are better right now either Italy or USA, and the other remaining teams are further below them.
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Post by c4ndlelight on May 17, 2020 16:38:44 GMT -5
You're trying to create a weird narrative about Egonu being inconsistent when she really isn't. She's very dependable in scoring points from match to match over domestic and club competitions over the past couple of years, day in and day out, when her teams aren't protecting her load in non-trophy matches the way Zhu's does. You're literally pointing to 1 match at Euros, which had both the toughest opposition and a really bad day from Italy's setters (see no one else besides Chirichella looking functional offensively). If the bar is performing in every single match over a quad, no one does that. If any Italian players have consistency problems, it's Sylla and Chirichella (and recently Malinov, it seems).
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Post by ace35 on May 17, 2020 16:54:31 GMT -5
You're trying to create a weird narrative about Egonu being inconsistent when she really isn't. She's very dependable in scoring points from match to match over domestic and club competitions over the past couple of years, day in and day out, when her teams aren't protecting her load in non-trophy matches the way Zhu's does. You're literally pointing to 1 match at Euros, which had both the toughest opposition and a really bad day from Italy's setters (see no one else besides Chirichella looking functional offensively). If the bar is performing in every single match over a quad, no one does that. If any Italian players have consistency problems, it's Sylla and Chirichella (and recently Malinov, it seems). Who are you addressing here? It seems you are mashing up my and volleyguy's arguments into one (our arguments have some things in common, but there are as much differences as similarities), and then respond to that as if one person argued it... Anyway, as far as it addresses my arguments, the setters weren't the main problems in that match for Italy. Egonu was. She spiked out at least half a dozen balls (and gave away close to 20 points in a 4 set match; when you are as good as Egonu, you can play with an almost-amateur setter and not give away so many points), which wrecked the confidence and performance of rest of the squad. And no, I'm not saying she is inconsistent, for the record.
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Post by volleyguy on May 17, 2020 18:45:55 GMT -5
You're trying to create a weird narrative about Egonu being inconsistent when she really isn't. She's very dependable in scoring points from match to match over domestic and club competitions over the past couple of years, day in and day out, when her teams aren't protecting her load in non-trophy matches the way Zhu's does. You're literally pointing to 1 match at Euros, which had both the toughest opposition and a really bad day from Italy's setters (see no one else besides Chirichella looking functional offensively). If the bar is performing in every single match over a quad, no one does that. If any Italian players have consistency problems, it's Sylla and Chirichella (and recently Malinov, it seems). It's not a weird narrative to suggest what you yourself say, no one performs well in every single match. And the problems with Sylla and Chirichella's consistency also relate to what I said about the rest of Italy's team. No other top team is so heavily reliant on the performance of one single player as Italy is.
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Tokyo 2021
May 17, 2020 19:33:58 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Reach on May 17, 2020 19:33:58 GMT -5
Egonu makes or breaks teams. This is nothing new.
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Post by c4ndlelight on May 18, 2020 15:05:52 GMT -5
You're trying to create a weird narrative about Egonu being inconsistent when she really isn't. She's very dependable in scoring points from match to match over domestic and club competitions over the past couple of years, day in and day out, when her teams aren't protecting her load in non-trophy matches the way Zhu's does. You're literally pointing to 1 match at Euros, which had both the toughest opposition and a really bad day from Italy's setters (see no one else besides Chirichella looking functional offensively). If the bar is performing in every single match over a quad, no one does that. If any Italian players have consistency problems, it's Sylla and Chirichella (and recently Malinov, it seems). It's not a weird narrative to suggest what you yourself say, no one performs well in every single match. And the problems with Sylla and Chirichella's consistency also relate to what I said about the rest of Italy's team. No other top team is so heavily reliant on the performance of one single player as Italy is. Italy is heavily reliant on Egonu. Egonu is also consistent enough to make Italy a top contender. She needs to be on for 2-3 consecutive matches in the medal rounds over 4-6 days (depends on QF draw), and for 4+ of 6 matches in pool play - and an easier pool. She's shown she has the consistency to do that. I'd much rather be in their shoes than Team USA's, who I feel are increasingly dependent on other top teams having a bad day.
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Post by volleyguy on May 18, 2020 15:49:45 GMT -5
It's not a weird narrative to suggest what you yourself say, no one performs well in every single match. And the problems with Sylla and Chirichella's consistency also relate to what I said about the rest of Italy's team. No other top team is so heavily reliant on the performance of one single player as Italy is. Italy is heavily reliant on Egonu. Egonu is also consistent enough to make Italy a top contender. She needs to be on for 2-3 consecutive matches in the medal rounds over 4-6 days (depends on QF draw), and for 4+ of 6 matches in pool play - and an easier pool. She's shown she has the consistency to do that. I'd much rather be in their shoes than Team USA's, who I feel are increasingly dependent on other top teams having a bad day. I don't disagree with this, except that I'm not convinced that she has done it, or will do it. How many other top players are there who can be so good, and so then bad (relatively speaking)? And even so, there is the added pressure (and distractions) of the first Olympic experience, which makes the task more difficult the further Italy progresses. I'm also inclined to put Italy ahead of the USA. I'm not feeling good about this team.
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Post by donut on May 18, 2020 17:11:36 GMT -5
I’ll rephrase. These are the two statements/ideas I’m having trouble logically accepting both as true: “Italy is a contender, while China is a favorite.” “Italy beat China two times in a row at the last major tournament.” (I misread the World Champ website, they only played twice). You say inconsistency/over-reliance (obviously paraphrasing here) is the explanation for how both can be true. Italy consistently (less strong with only two victories versus three, for sure) beat China while over-relying on Egonu. I’m fine disagreeing here. All 3 teams have weaknesses. I personally just don’t think Italy’s weaknesses are strong enough to knock them down a level from China and Serbia, especially if that next level includes the USA. The 2nd Italy vs China match went to 5, with the final set score 17-15. Italy vs Serbia also went to 5, with the final set score 15-12. I can see the argument that those results put Italy in the same tier as Serbia and China. But that seems to be the extent of your argument. That was one tournament, and resting your argument on the WCH tournament results from 2018 isn't the strongest argument to be made. Egonu is unstoppable when she's on, but she is also not always on (consistently so). That inconsistency, and the belief that the rest of Italy's team doesn't match up with China and Serbia is the basis of my argument. USA's position doesn't really have anything to do with Italy. They're in the next tier simply because I believe that both Serbia and China are better right now either Italy or USA, and the other remaining teams are further below them. Yes, that was the crux of my argument: Italy belongs on the same tier as China and Serbia, and not the same tier as the United States. USA's talent doesn't really have anything to do with Italy, but tiers and positions are entirely relational, which is why USA's position relative to Italy does matter if we are using those tiers to indicate relative sameness wrt to Olympic potential. Again, based on your last sentence, I'm pretty sure you completely understand this, so I'm not sure what you're getting at. I'm well aware of the limitations of using one tournament to support my assertion. But they are the best and most recent results we have, unless you think they are completely irrelevant? And it's a bit ironic to tell me the head-to-head results (the most objective simple way to determine which team is 'better') aren't "strong," when you're "resting" your claim on narrative evidence (Egonu is too inconsistent and Italy relies on her too much) . I agree with you, Egonu is relied on too heavily by Italy. Italy is the most inconsistent of the top 3 teams. IMO, those factors, however, don't create enough separation between Italy and China/Serbia, to classify Italy as a "contender" versus a "favorite." Other than that last point, I'm not sure what you're arguing with me.
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Post by volleyguy on May 18, 2020 17:26:42 GMT -5
The 2nd Italy vs China match went to 5, with the final set score 17-15. Italy vs Serbia also went to 5, with the final set score 15-12. I can see the argument that those results put Italy in the same tier as Serbia and China. But that seems to be the extent of your argument. That was one tournament, and resting your argument on the WCH tournament results from 2018 isn't the strongest argument to be made. Egonu is unstoppable when she's on, but she is also not always on (consistently so). That inconsistency, and the belief that the rest of Italy's team doesn't match up with China and Serbia is the basis of my argument. USA's position doesn't really have anything to do with Italy. They're in the next tier simply because I believe that both Serbia and China are better right now either Italy or USA, and the other remaining teams are further below them. Yes, that was the crux of my argument: Italy belongs on the same tier as China and Serbia, and not the same tier as the United States. USA's talent doesn't really have anything to do with Italy, but tiers and positions are entirely relational, which is why USA's position relative to Italy does matter if we are using those tiers to indicate relative sameness wrt to Olympic potential. Again, based on your last sentence, I'm pretty sure you completely understand this, so I'm not sure what you're getting at. I'm well aware of the limitations of using one tournament to support my assertion. But they are the best and most recent results we have, unless you think they are completely irrelevant? And it's a bit ironic to tell me the head-to-head results (the most objective simple way to determine which team is 'better') aren't "strong," when you're "resting" your claim on narrative evidence (Egonu is too inconsistent and Italy relies on her too much) . I agree with you, Egonu is relied on too heavily by Italy. Italy is the most inconsistent of the top 3 teams. IMO, those factors, however, don't create enough separation between Italy and China/Serbia, to classify Italy as a "contender" versus a "favorite." Other than that last point, I'm not sure what you're arguing with me. I thought the last point was where I was unclear. What I was trying to say was that Italy and USA don't have to be on the same [next] tier together. Italy could be a tier above USA. Now you summarized my arguments and made a contrast, then said you're not sure what I'm arguing with you, so I'm a bit confused. But I do agree that we don't need to be arguing about this. That's why they [will] play the matches.
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Post by ace35 on May 18, 2020 18:36:54 GMT -5
For my part, I wasn't arguing that Italy is on the same level as USA, nor even that Italy is inherently worse than China and Serbia, on paper (that's where volleyguy and I differ, I guess). I don't think that, on paper, Italy without Egonu is weaker than China without Zhu or Serbia without Boskovic.
But in practice, that seems to be the case (at least to me). From that, I speculated that Egonu is so much treated as alpha and omega of the squad both by people outside of NT and inside it, that other players have bought into it, and don't have faith in their own ability to pull the team through if Egonu is off (even though they SHOULD) against strong opponent, in a degree that isn't the case with Serbian and Chinese squad members outside of their star players. Granted, the sample size is not big, but it is there, and were I Italian, I would very much bemoan that.
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Tokyo 2021
May 18, 2020 19:01:58 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Hawk Attack on May 18, 2020 19:01:58 GMT -5
If we’re betting on which squad has the best likelihood of stringing three winning performances in a row together I’m going with China, Ting, & JLP every time.
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Post by volleyguy on May 18, 2020 19:39:05 GMT -5
For my part, I wasn't arguing that Italy is on the same level as USA, nor even that Italy is inherently worse than China and Serbia, on paper (that's where volleyguy and I differ, I guess). I don't think that, on paper, Italy without Egonu is weaker than China without Zhu or Serbia without Boskovic. But in practice, that seems to be the case (at least to me). From that, I speculated that Egonu is so much treated as alpha and omega of the squad both by people outside of NT and inside it, that other players have bought into it, and don't have faith in their own ability to pull the team through if Egonu is off (even though they SHOULD) against strong opponent, in a degree that isn't the case with Serbian and Chinese squad members outside of their star players. Granted, the sample size is not big, but it is there, and were I Italian, I would very much bemoan that. Take out Egonu, Zhu and Boskovic. At which position(s) is Italy stronger than the comparable position versus China or Serbia? Perhaps libero, or occasionally, in the middle....
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Post by ace35 on May 18, 2020 20:06:49 GMT -5
For my part, I wasn't arguing that Italy is on the same level as USA, nor even that Italy is inherently worse than China and Serbia, on paper (that's where volleyguy and I differ, I guess). I don't think that, on paper, Italy without Egonu is weaker than China without Zhu or Serbia without Boskovic. But in practice, that seems to be the case (at least to me). From that, I speculated that Egonu is so much treated as alpha and omega of the squad both by people outside of NT and inside it, that other players have bought into it, and don't have faith in their own ability to pull the team through if Egonu is off (even though they SHOULD) against strong opponent, in a degree that isn't the case with Serbian and Chinese squad members outside of their star players. Granted, the sample size is not big, but it is there, and were I Italian, I would very much bemoan that. Take out Egonu, Zhu and Boskovic. At which position(s) is Italy stronger than the comparable position versus China or Serbia? Perhaps libero, or occasionally, in the middle.... Libero for both and L2 in the case of Serbia, but I didn't argue that Italy is stronger than those 2 teams, if we remove the main stars. I did say that Italy has perhaps theoretically the strongest team on paper if Sylla and MBs are on top of their game(which is a very big if these days), but that's not quite the same thing, is it?
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Post by Murina on May 18, 2020 21:37:10 GMT -5
How many other top players are there who can be so good, and so then bad (relatively speaking)? Pretty much all of them that tried to do what she's being asked to do at age 19, 20 & 21.
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 28,153
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Post by trojansc on May 18, 2020 21:59:17 GMT -5
Here's some Fun Facts about Italy's OlympiC History:
-Never made it to the Semifinals -Was eliminated in Pool-Play in Rio 2016, did not reach Quarterfinals. -Italy went 4-1 Pool Play in London 2012, Beijing 2008, and Athens 2004. -They lost all three of the above QF matches: South Korea (2012), USA (2008), Cuba (2004).
They had a few unfortunate breaks during that period. But. It will be interesting to see just how far Egonu can carry them. It's very hard to see them not making it out of pool play -- but It's still possible.
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