bluepenquin
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4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 21, 2020 16:29:13 GMT -5
Not sure if you looked at the chart. Yes cases did spike and now they are down by over 50% and falling quickly. There are some delays in diagnosing and then reporting cases so true infections are likely much lower right now. And I don't think you understand how the epidemiology math works. You can get lower new infections based on both what mitigation steps you are taking and how many have been infected and are immune. You can suppress an epidemic through mitigation steps but when you ease up on the mitigation the disease will come back. So whatever mitigation you take you need to hold until the end or it just comes back. Interestingly, we are not seeing a second wave in any of the places hit hard by the virus. In the US, NY/NJ have very low rates while the second wave happened in states not hit the first time. The same is true on the state level. Parishes in LA that were hit in the first wave and not seeing case increases. Those are all happening in areas not hit the first time. Same thing is true in ID were one county got hit hard in the first wave and is now not seeing increases while the rest of the state does. This is also happening in Spain / Italy where Madrid / Milan that got hit the first time are not getting hit the second time while the rest of the country is. And of course Sweden is having very few cases now despite taking very few steps. The best hypothesis for this pattern is some level of herd immunity in those places already hit. The post above is a NYT article on the idea. If you assume Sweden as a model we are about 10% away from where they are. There are lots of difference in the two countries that might drive us above them but the idea that deaths are going to triple just isn't very likely. And if you go through the numbers the whole key is actually who catches the disease. If the young and healthy catch it we build up a herd immunity with very low loss of life. The whole key to mitigation while actually moving on is to really lock down the elderly with everyone else taking reasonable precautions..... Stop doing the sweden thing lmao. They're still at much higher daily cases per capita compared to norway and denmark, 8th globally in deaths per capita. They clearly messed up. I'd also note that another (more plausible) explanation for NY/NJ/etc current success is that they actually implemented effective mitigation after being the first and therefore hardest hit, especially since antibody tests indicate they probably don't have herd immunity. Sweden could be an example of how herd immunity may be much lower than originally believed and still the wrong way of doing things. I strongly believe that NYC's way of doing it was a very costly and a bad way of doing it (not that they had a choice like other places). There is a high probability that mitigations implemented have an impact - but when comparing places that had similar mitigations and saw their cases spike, while other places that got hit hard and may not have as strong of mitigations as NYC have not seen the return of COVID - it makes me believe that it is something else that is important here.
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 21, 2020 16:32:37 GMT -5
This was predictable. College football may not be the right thing to do this fall - but not doing it is going impact other sports and most likely reach VB in places.
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Post by vbcoltrane on Aug 21, 2020 16:35:03 GMT -5
Surprised Iowa is cutting swimming. Well, not totally surprised as it is a commonly cut sport. But, they fairly recently built a brand new natatorium that is championship-hosting caliber.
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Post by dodger on Aug 21, 2020 17:09:29 GMT -5
We can hope when back to “normal” means re-adding those sports!
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Post by bigjohn043 on Aug 21, 2020 18:21:42 GMT -5
Not sure if you looked at the chart. Yes cases did spike and now they are down by over 50% and falling quickly. There are some delays in diagnosing and then reporting cases so true infections are likely much lower right now. And I don't think you understand how the epidemiology math works. You can get lower new infections based on both what mitigation steps you are taking and how many have been infected and are immune. You can suppress an epidemic through mitigation steps but when you ease up on the mitigation the disease will come back. So whatever mitigation you take you need to hold until the end or it just comes back. Interestingly, we are not seeing a second wave in any of the places hit hard by the virus. In the US, NY/NJ have very low rates while the second wave happened in states not hit the first time. The same is true on the state level. Parishes in LA that were hit in the first wave and not seeing case increases. Those are all happening in areas not hit the first time. Same thing is true in ID were one county got hit hard in the first wave and is now not seeing increases while the rest of the state does. This is also happening in Spain / Italy where Madrid / Milan that got hit the first time are not getting hit the second time while the rest of the country is. And of course Sweden is having very few cases now despite taking very few steps. The best hypothesis for this pattern is some level of herd immunity in those places already hit. The post above is a NYT article on the idea. If you assume Sweden as a model we are about 10% away from where they are. There are lots of difference in the two countries that might drive us above them but the idea that deaths are going to triple just isn't very likely. And if you go through the numbers the whole key is actually who catches the disease. If the young and healthy catch it we build up a herd immunity with very low loss of life. The whole key to mitigation while actually moving on is to really lock down the elderly with everyone else taking reasonable precautions..... Stop doing the sweden thing lmao. They're still at much higher daily cases per capita compared to norway and denmark, 8th globally in deaths per capita. They clearly messed up. I'd also note that another (more plausible) explanation for NY/NJ/etc current success is that they actually implemented effective mitigation after being the first and therefore hardest hit, especially since antibody tests indicate they probably don't have herd immunity. There is not a single piece of data suggesting that NY/NJ have done a better job of mitigation. Not one. Not mobility data, credit card present transactions data, surveys on masks, nothing. And there is ton of data available. But I find that NY/NJ people believe it none the less. The interesting thing about Sweden of course is their death rate is down to very little and they have done none of the mitigation techniques that you think helped NY/NJ. In fact, their death rate is below NY/NJ. I think you can argue about whether theirs was the right course. But you have to deal with the fact that they currently have very little covid without the mitigation measures.
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Post by cindra on Aug 21, 2020 18:39:39 GMT -5
Stop doing the sweden thing lmao. They're still at much higher daily cases per capita compared to norway and denmark, 8th globally in deaths per capita. They clearly messed up. I'd also note that another (more plausible) explanation for NY/NJ/etc current success is that they actually implemented effective mitigation after being the first and therefore hardest hit, especially since antibody tests indicate they probably don't have herd immunity. There is not a single piece of data suggesting that NY/NJ have done a better job of mitigation. Not one. Not mobility data, credit card present transactions data, surveys on masks, nothing. And there is ton of data available. But I find that NY/NJ people believe it none the less. The interesting thing about Sweden of course is their death rate is down to very little and they have done none of the mitigation techniques that you think helped NY/NJ. In fact, their death rate is below NY/NJ. I think you can argue about whether theirs was the right course. But you have to deal with the fact that they currently have very little covid without the mitigation measures. Sweden is 8th globally in deaths, and still currently doing worse than comparable countries in deaths per day. IDK what you are talking about very little covid. BTS data here suggests less mobility as recently as July in NY/NJ then most of the south and sun belt, and that is the case for the entire course of the pandemic so far. www.bts.gov/browse-statistical-products-and-data/trips-distance/daily-travel-during-covid-19-pandemicThis suggests mask wearing is higher in the Northeast as well www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/17/upshot/coronavirus-face-mask-map.htmlWhere are you getting your information?
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Post by bigjohn043 on Aug 21, 2020 19:31:49 GMT -5
There is not a single piece of data suggesting that NY/NJ have done a better job of mitigation. Not one. Not mobility data, credit card present transactions data, surveys on masks, nothing. And there is ton of data available. But I find that NY/NJ people believe it none the less. The interesting thing about Sweden of course is their death rate is down to very little and they have done none of the mitigation techniques that you think helped NY/NJ. In fact, their death rate is below NY/NJ. I think you can argue about whether theirs was the right course. But you have to deal with the fact that they currently have very little covid without the mitigation measures. Sweden is 8th globally in deaths, and still currently doing worse than comparable countries in deaths per day. IDK what you are talking about very little covid. BTS data here suggests less mobility as recently as July in NY/NJ then most of the south and sun belt, and that is the case for the entire course of the pandemic so far. www.bts.gov/browse-statistical-products-and-data/trips-distance/daily-travel-during-covid-19-pandemicThis suggests mask wearing is higher in the Northeast as well www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/17/upshot/coronavirus-face-mask-map.htmlWhere are you getting your information? The BTS data you show has NY at 31% of people staying at home versus CA at 29%. And you believe that is what is driving the large wave in CA versus NY? AZ is at 28% and they had a huge wave. Similarly, the mask data you show doesn't have NY any higher than CA or Miami which both have had big second waves. You need data not just that can explain the south but CA as well. I know you won't trust me when I say this but a lot of very smart data scientists have been pouring through this stuff. They would love to tell the story that mitigation is what is causing NY's success. The data just doesn't say that. Sweden right now is at .4 deaths per million per day. The US for example is at 3.09. Sweden has had a fairly high impact so far but those numbers have gone way down. How did that happen? They didn't mitigate. What is your explanation?
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Post by mikegarrison on Aug 21, 2020 19:35:01 GMT -5
We can hope when back to “normal” means re-adding those sports! I wouldn't bet on it.
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Post by dodger on Aug 21, 2020 23:46:30 GMT -5
Bigjohn where do you live? Because your confusing use of the available stats and desire to assert your point is not statistics driven: but the use of stats to creat a defensible political and personal belief not an honest discussion of a way to safely measure risk! The country’s that did the best have the best results: simple to me!
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)
Posts: 12,447
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 22, 2020 7:55:49 GMT -5
Bigjohn where do you live? Because your confusing use of the available stats and desire to assert your point is not statistics driven: but the use of stats to creat a defensible political and personal belief not an honest discussion of a way to safely measure risk! The country’s that did the best have the best results: simple to me! Oh my - sounds like you are doing exactly what you are accusing BigJohn. Typical that you would consider that which you don't believe to be 'political' and that which you do believe to be science or reality. Honest discussion is what BigJohn and Cinda were having - then you reduce one side to being political and the argument you agree with as being honest.
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Post by bigjohn043 on Aug 22, 2020 10:14:11 GMT -5
Bigjohn where do you live? Because your confusing use of the available stats and desire to assert your point is not statistics driven: but the use of stats to creat a defensible political and personal belief not an honest discussion of a way to safely measure risk! The country’s that did the best have the best results: simple to me! I live in FL although I am not sure why that matters. I am happy to discuss any aspect of the data you would like. I am also happy to point you towards the best web sites and people to follow if you are really interested in the data. FWIW, people like Nate Silver at 538 are starting to come around to the HIT hypothesis. He certainly isn't a conservative. But a close look at the data suggests that it is the only hypothesis that fits what is happening. I am pretty well versed in this stuff and I would like to think that my views are data driven. OTOH, everything we know about psychology suggests that political views are mostly genetic and that we use our reasoning skills primarily to justify our pre-held beliefs. This is true of all ideologies and all people will ignore facts when they clash with core values.
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Post by bigjohn043 on Aug 22, 2020 10:23:20 GMT -5
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Post by oldnewbie on Aug 22, 2020 10:53:34 GMT -5
Much more useful to compare apples to apples Compare sweden to Finland and NorwayFour months into the COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden’s prized herd immunity is nowhere in sightRecent clinical and research findings suggest that the acquisition of neutralising IgM and IgG antibodies (Ab) is regularly seen in severely infected individuals (e.g. those ventilated in ITU). In a recent case series of 285 hospitalised COVID-19 patients from China, over 90% had seroconverted after three weeks of infection.17 Such Ab-generating responses to COVID-19 infections are much less commonly found in the far more numerous asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic (non-hospitalised community) patient cohorts. Table 218–24 shows the data from many of the reported series (some reports being pre-formal publication); it is clear that nowhere is the prevalence of IgG seropositivity high (the maximum being around 20%) or climbing convincingly over time. This is especially clear in Sweden, where the authorities publicly predicted 40% seroconversion in Stockholm by May 2020; the actual IgG seroprevalence was around 15%. It is clear that not only are the rates of viral infection, hospitalisation and mortality (per million population) much higher than those seen in neighbouring Scandinavian countries, but also that the time-course of the epidemic in Sweden is different, with continued persistence of higher infection and mortality (as one is inexorably linked to the other) well beyond the few critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway, whose rapid lock-down measures seem to have been initially more successful in curtailing the infection surge
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Post by northwoods on Aug 22, 2020 10:53:56 GMT -5
Bigjohn where do you live? Because your confusing use of the available stats and desire to assert your point is not statistics driven: but the use of stats to creat a defensible political and personal belief not an honest discussion of a way to safely measure risk! The country’s that did the best have the best results: simple to me! I live in FL although I am not sure why that matters. I am happy to discuss any aspect of the data you would like. I am also happy to point you towards the best web sites and people to follow if you are really interested in the data. FWIW, people like Nate Silver at 538 are starting to come around to the HIT hypothesis. He certainly isn't a conservative. But a close look at the data suggests that it is the only hypothesis that fits what is happening. I am pretty well versed in this stuff and I would like to think that my views are data driven. OTOH, everything we know about psychology suggests that political views are mostly genetic and that we use our reasoning skills primarily to justify our pre-held beliefs. This is true of all ideologies and all people will ignore facts when they clash with core values. Political views are mostly genetic....??
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Post by gibbyb1 on Aug 22, 2020 10:55:59 GMT -5
The word “volleyball” doesn’t appear once on this page of 15 posts. There are other boards to discuss Covid data
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