trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 31,551 
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Post by trojansc on May 17, 2021 0:35:46 GMT -5
Interesting. After some research, I see that current Sunbelt member Coastal Carolina won the 2016 College World Series in baseball as a member of the Big South right before they joined the Sunbelt. I'm seeing some articles saying this wasn't that improbable, but it's still kind of hard for me to believe. Baseball is weird. Vanderbilt is a power-house. One of my favorite tournaments of all time was the 2008 Baseball CWS. Fresno State. The WAC automatic Qualifier who wouldn't have gotten an at-large ended up a #4 seed in a regional, and went all the way to win a National Championship. I don't know if there's really anything like it in another NCAA sport. I'm sure there's something, but that's about as improbable as it gets. |
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Post by bbg95 on May 17, 2021 0:41:17 GMT -5
Interesting. After some research, I see that current Sunbelt member Coastal Carolina won the 2016 College World Series in baseball as a member of the Big South right before they joined the Sunbelt. I'm seeing some articles saying this wasn't that improbable, but it's still kind of hard for me to believe. Baseball is weird. Vanderbilt is a power-house. One of my favorite tournaments of all time was the 2008 Baseball CWS. Fresno State. The WAC automatic Qualifier who wouldn't have gotten an at-large ended up a #4 seed in a regional, and went all the way to win a National Championship. I don't know if there's really anything like it in another NCAA sport. I'm sure there's something, but that's about as improbable as it gets. Yeah, after looking into it, Coastal Carolina was a 2 seed in their region, so I guess them winning would be similar to if BYU had managed to beat Penn State in the 2014 women's volleyball title match--a very good team that wasn't among the top 16 seeds. Fresno State in 2008 was a 4 seed in their region, which is the equivalent of a 13-16 seed in basketball winning the tournament (it's probably not quite the same due to regionalization, but still). |
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Post by n00b on May 17, 2021 0:51:35 GMT -5
Baseball is the most random sport. By a LOT. 538 did a study a while back about variability. One NFL game tells you as much as one NBA result. The equivalent was like 10 MLB games. Edit: one NFL game is the equivalent of 6 MLB games. fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-diamondbacks-rough-start-says-about-mlb-and-the-nfl-and-nba/So 7-game series in baseball are similar to single elimination in football. NBA is the real outlier. They are only slightly more random as football, but have 7-game series in the playoffs. So basically zero upsets. |
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Post by bbg95 on May 17, 2021 1:06:36 GMT -5
Baseball is the most random sport. By a LOT. 538 did a study a while back about variability. One NFL game tells you as much as one NBA result. The equivalent was like 10 MLB games. Edit: one NFL game is the equivalent of 6 MLB games. fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-diamondbacks-rough-start-says-about-mlb-and-the-nfl-and-nba/So 7-game series in baseball are similar to single elimination in football. NBA is the real outlier. They are only slightly more random as football, but have 7-game series in the playoffs. So basically zero upsets. Yeah, in basketball, a seven-game series removes most of the variance (the reason why the college basketball tournament is so good is that the single-elimination format produces a lot of upsets that would be close to impossible if they were playing seven-game series instead). That 538 article didn't talk about hockey, but I would suspect that an analysis of the Stanley Cup Playoffs would put it in the same realm as baseball. An 8-seed upsetting a 1-seed in the first round or even winning the Stanley Cup is quite plausible (the 2012 Kings won in rather dominant fashion behind the stellar goaltending of Jonathan Quick), whereas an 8-seed in the NBA winning the title is unfathomable unless it was a reigning champion that got bored or injured during the regular season. Hockey also has produced a number of comebacks from 3-0 to win a series, which has happened once in MLB and never in the NBA. |
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Post by n00b on May 17, 2021 1:08:29 GMT -5
Baseball is the most random sport. By a LOT. 538 did a study a while back about variability. One NFL game tells you as much as one NBA result. The equivalent was like 10 MLB games. Edit: one NFL game is the equivalent of 6 MLB games. fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-diamondbacks-rough-start-says-about-mlb-and-the-nfl-and-nba/So 7-game series in baseball are similar to single elimination in football. NBA is the real outlier. They are only slightly more random as football, but have 7-game series in the playoffs. So basically zero upsets. Yeah, in basketball, a seven-game series removes most of the variance (the reason why the college basketball tournament is so good is that the single-elimination format produces a lot of upsets that would be close to impossible if they were playing seven-game series instead). That 538 article didn't talk about hockey, but I would suspect that an analysis of the Stanley Cup Playoffs would put it in the same realm as baseball. An 8-seed upsetting a 1-seed in the first round or even winning the Stanley Cup is quite plausible (the 2012 Kings won in rather dominant fashion behind the stellar goaltending of Jonathan Quick), whereas an 8-seed in the NBA winning the title is unfathomable unless it was a reigning champion that got bored or injured during the regular season. Hockey also has produced a number of comebacks from 3-0 to win a series, which has happened once in MLB and never in the NBA. There is actually a decent chance of a 7-seed winning the NBA championship this year. |
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Post by bbg95 on May 17, 2021 1:09:55 GMT -5
Yeah, in basketball, a seven-game series removes most of the variance (the reason why the college basketball tournament is so good is that the single-elimination format produces a lot of upsets that would be close to impossible if they were playing seven-game series instead). That 538 article didn't talk about hockey, but I would suspect that an analysis of the Stanley Cup Playoffs would put it in the same realm as baseball. An 8-seed upsetting a 1-seed in the first round or even winning the Stanley Cup is quite plausible (the 2012 Kings won in rather dominant fashion behind the stellar goaltending of Jonathan Quick), whereas an 8-seed in the NBA winning the title is unfathomable unless it was a reigning champion that got bored or injured during the regular season. Hockey also has produced a number of comebacks from 3-0 to win a series, which has happened once in MLB and never in the NBA. There is actually a decent chance of a 7-seed winning the NBA championship this year. "...unless it was a reigning champion that got bored or injured during the regular season." I believe I covered this possibility. It would not really be a shock if a healthy Lakers team were to win the title this year. The kinds of teams that typically get 7 seeds have virtually zero shot. Edit: Since I started following the NBA in the early 90s, the biggest NBA Finals upsets are probably something like this: 2019: 2-seed Toronto beats 1-seed Golden State, which had lost Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson to injury 2016: 1-seed Cleveland, a team with LeBron, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving, beats 1-seed Golden State (which had won 73 games in the regular season) 2011: 3-seed Dallas beats 2-seed Miami behind the stellar play of Dirk and the worst performance of LeBron's career since he originally left Cleveland 2004: 3-seed Detroit beats 2-seed LA Lakers. This one was shocking at the time, but Detroit lost a game 7 in the 2005 NBA Finals, so they were good 1995: 6-seed and defending champion Houston beats 1-seed Orlando. "Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion" and all that. These aren't really big upsets by the standards of other major sports, but they pass as big upsets in the NBA. |
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Post by n00b on May 17, 2021 1:33:33 GMT -5
There is actually a decent chance of a 7-seed winning the NBA championship this year. "...unless it was a reigning champion that got bored or injured during the regular season." I believe I covered this possibility. It would not really be a shock if a healthy Lakers team were to win the title this year. The kinds of teams that typically get 7 seeds have virtually zero shot. Edit: Since I started following the NBA in the early 90s, the biggest NBA Finals upsets are probably something like this: 2018: 2-seed Toronto beats 1-seed Golden State, which had lost Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson to injury 2016: 1-seed Cleveland, a team with LeBron, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving, beats 1-seed Golden State (which had won 73 games in the regular season) 2011: 3-seed Dallas beats 2-seed Miami behind the stellar play of Dirk and the worst performance of LeBron's career since he originally left Cleveland 2004: 3-seed Detroit beats 2-seed LA Lakers. This one was shocking at the time, but Detroit lost a game 7 in the 2005 NBA Finals, so they were good 1995: 6-seed and defending champion Houston beats 1-seed Orlando. "Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion" and all that. These aren't really major upsets by the standards of other major sports, but they pass as big upsets in the NBA. Oh for sure. I agree with everything in your post. Apologies if it sounded like I didn’t. |
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Post by mikegarrison on May 17, 2021 2:18:08 GMT -5
In baseball and softball, a dominant pitching performance can overcome just about any other factors. Part of why they have seven-game series in the MLB is so that teams have to match up multiple pitchers. (Usually they go with their three best, depending on when the rest days fall.)
In college softball, pitchers sometimes pitch double headers back-to-back, and it's pretty common for teams with a dominant pitcher to have that pitcher start every game in the playoffs. Thus, the idea that a long series would force teams to showcase pitching depth isn't as applicable.
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trojansc
Legend
All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017), All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team (2016), 2021, 2019 Fantasy League Champion, 2020 Fantasy League Runner Up, 2022 2nd Runner Up
Posts: 31,551
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Post by trojansc on May 17, 2021 4:37:42 GMT -5
In baseball and softball, a dominant pitching performance can overcome just about any other factors. Part of why they have seven-game series in the MLB is so that teams have to match up multiple pitchers. (Usually they go with their three best, depending on when the rest days fall.) In college softball, pitchers sometimes pitch double headers back-to-back, and it's pretty common for teams with a dominant pitcher to have that pitcher start every game in the playoffs. Thus, the idea that a long series would force teams to showcase pitching depth isn't as applicable. And in softball, they even changed the format of Super Regionals to three days instead of two, so nobody has to play back-to-back, helping teams with only one good pitcher. You still might have to play 2 games in one day in the regionals or WCWS, but only if you lose. I kinda liked the if necessary game in the Supers being a doubleheader, and it was better for having the games more spread out schedule wise, guaranteeing at least some games on Sunday. |
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Post by vup on May 17, 2021 8:34:44 GMT -5
No Nebraska  |
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Post by donut on May 17, 2021 8:42:01 GMT -5
Interesting. After some research, I see that current Sunbelt member Coastal Carolina won the 2016 College World Series in baseball as a member of the Big South right before they joined the Sunbelt. I'm seeing some articles saying this wasn't that improbable, but it's still kind of hard for me to believe. Baseball is weird. Vanderbilt is a power-house. Arguably the best program in the country today. |
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Post by bbg95 on May 17, 2021 9:03:34 GMT -5
In baseball and softball, a dominant pitching performance can overcome just about any other factors. Part of why they have seven-game series in the MLB is so that teams have to match up multiple pitchers. (Usually they go with their three best, depending on when the rest days fall.) In college softball, pitchers sometimes pitch double headers back-to-back, and it's pretty common for teams with a dominant pitcher to have that pitcher start every game in the playoffs. Thus, the idea that a long series would force teams to showcase pitching depth isn't as applicable. This makes college softball seem somewhat like hockey, where a goalie playing out of their mind can almost single-handedly win the game. As you said, a pitcher in baseball can do this too, but a pitcher can typically only pitch every four or five games (maybe three in the playoffs--four is more common for non-aces--and these days, it's pretty uncommon for starters to pitch complete games, so bullpen arms are also very important). Goalies will typically play every game in the playoffs unless they get shelled. And a truly great goaltending performance (e.g. Quick in 2012) can win a Cup almost by itself. |
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Post by mikegarrison on May 17, 2021 16:15:54 GMT -5
So ... a month ago, the NCAA said that they would consider pulling post-season tournament events from states that enact laws restricting transgender athletes. But did they? No. They placed regionals in Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee.
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Post by c4ndlelight on May 17, 2021 16:20:43 GMT -5
Baseball is weird. Vanderbilt is a power-house. One of my favorite tournaments of all time was the 2008 Baseball CWS. Fresno State. The WAC automatic Qualifier who wouldn't have gotten an at-large ended up a #4 seed in a regional, and went all the way to win a National Championship. I don't know if there's really anything like it in another NCAA sport. I'm sure there's something, but that's about as improbable as it gets. Yeah, after looking into it, Coastal Carolina was a 2 seed in their region, so I guess them winning would be similar to if BYU had managed to beat Penn State in the 2014 women's volleyball title match--a very good team that wasn't among the top 16 seeds. Fresno State in 2008 was a 4 seed in their region, which is the equivalent of a 13-16 seed in basketball winning the tournament (it's probably not quite the same due to regionalization, but still). In 2007, Oregon St. won the College World Series as the 3 seed in UVA's subregional... as the defending national champions. |
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Post by n00b on May 17, 2021 17:04:04 GMT -5
So ... a month ago, the NCAA said that they would consider pulling post-season tournament events from states that enact laws restricting transgender athletes. But did they? No. They placed regionals in Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee. They don't want to have to move their headquarters when it also passes in Indiana. |
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