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Post by ned3vball on Nov 3, 2021 18:56:12 GMT -5
The 3rd setting of Regional Rankings came out today. No huge surprises. this is the first set that matters. Any school in these rankings will be part of the Ranked W/L records. Nov 3rd Regional Rankingsedit: Actually, Aurora is too high in region 8, blocking Oshkosh and Earlham, among others. |
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Nov 3, 2021 19:06:44 GMT -5
Bloody Calvin and Hope...
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Post by bigfan on Nov 3, 2021 20:52:28 GMT -5
The 3rd setting of Regional Rankings came out today. No huge surprises. this is the first set that matters. Any school in these rankings will be part of the Ranked W/L records. Nov 3rd Regional RankingsWhy is Emory in the same group as UC SANTA CRUZ? |
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Post by rettes on Nov 3, 2021 23:23:11 GMT -5
Emory is in the right region all those teams close to them geographically. UC Santa Cruz is in that region because of their conference. I think the UAA and one other conference has exemption where they are ranked in their region geographically and not based on where their conference is. Because of the conference UCSC is part of is why they are ranked in that region.
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 4, 2021 7:49:36 GMT -5
Bloody Calvin and Hope... Eh, it's no big deal, they have their own thing going on playing in the Calvin Hope and no hope conference. One will get the A bid, and the other will get a C bid in the first 3 rounds, so the next nominee from region 7 is at the table early. Region 7 is doing very well in my first projections. Getting 3 or 4 pool C bids in most scenarios. So Otterbein and Muskingum look pretty safe. Mount Union is in trouble, they have to beat Ohio Northern. |
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 4, 2021 8:18:26 GMT -5
Match of the Day 11/4Muskingum at #24 Otterbein 7:00pm ET video (winner virtually locks up a pool C bid, loser still pretty safe, but ...) Honorable MentionMount Union at #17 Ohio Northern 7:00pm ET video (Mount Union has to win for any NCAA chance) Millikin at Illinois Wesleyan 7:00pm CT video (pool C prospects are problematic for Illinois Wesleyan, best to win A bid) St. Norbert at Aurora 7:00pm CT video (a number of schools rooting for St. Norbert to help fix Aurora's too high ranking) edit: WIAC matches tonight also (they were not listed in my screen scrape) UpdateMuskingum 0 Otterbein 3 Mount Union 1 Ohio Northern 3 Millikin 0 Illinois Wesleyan 3 St. Norbert 0 Aurora 3 Wisc-Oshkosh 2 Wisc-Eau Claire 3 Wisc-Stevens Point 0 Wisc-Whitewater 3
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Nov 4, 2021 9:39:50 GMT -5
OAC Predictions Ohio Northern Polar Bears maul the Mt Union Purple Raiders in 3. The Otterbein Cardinals fillet the Muskingum Muskies in 5, avenging their 5 set loss during the regular season.  |
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Post by noreaster on Nov 4, 2021 12:10:35 GMT -5
Sharing some thoughts, region by region. I'm not sure I'm being consistent but then again, the committee isn't always consistent so here goes...
Region 1 it's hard to imagine one conference getting 3 of the 20 Pool C bids, but the NESCAC has 3 teams (Bowdoin, Middlebury and Tufts), all around a .600 SOS with 7-4 records vs ranked, and then Wesleyan is 9-5 vs ranked. The numbers are going to be tight enough that I could imagine 4 NESCAC teams in the tournament, even though that seem preposterous. Middlebury lost to the others so I get why they are 4th, but they still have 7 ranked wins and high numbers across the board, though they could lose to Amherst in the first round and make this easier for somebody else, so we'll see.
Region 2 the only guarantee I'd make is MIT, and they could win the AQ. Babson with a .610 SOS and 6-6 vs Ranked probably is in but other than MIT I'm not swooning over their resume. We'll see how this week plays out. Springfield has wins over Tufts and Babson that I like and if they beat Babson again in the Semi's. Coast Guard are on the bubble but if the NESCAC gets 4, someone else is going to have to get less.
Region 3 I'm not even sure about RIT. A .566 SOS is borderline. They are 6-3 vs ranked, but if Keene State drops out and RIT takes a loss this week, I'm not sure 5-4 with a .566ish SOS gets it done. Cortland at 7-3 vs ranked is interesting, even with a .537 SOS, but they may be blocked by RIT if they needed the pool C bid.
Region 4 NYU at 12-1 vs Ranked is a lock. Stevens at .567 and 6-4 vs ranked is very close to RIT, but I think wins over Haverford and Babson are a little bit shinier and harder for the committee to ignore. Rowan is at .540 and 5-2 vs ranked but that includes 1-1 vs Messiah, and Camden isn't ranked anymore but it hasn't come off the record vs ranked yet. They probably need to win to get in, as would anyone behind them.
Region 5 Everybody ahead of Stevenson is probably in, and even Stevenson can probably feel good but if enough teams get upset and suddenly need a Pool C bids they could get uncomfortable. Eastern's win over Messiah last night has to make them feel better too though still some bubbly type feelings, I imagine.
Region 6 I'm only going to say Berry and Emory are in. I like both but I don't know how Christopher Newport and Mary Washington bringing teams like Mills and Mount Mary into their numbers affects the math. I'd put CNU in, and I'd think Randolph Macon and Mary Washington are squarely on the bubble and need to be routing for top seeds around the country. Santa Cruz? If there were a Pool B bid this year, they'd be a lock. They have 2 very strong losses, and if they get on the board it will likely be with Pomona Pitzer who they beat 2 times, but .548, 3-2 vs ranked (Pomona x2, and Cornell, with losses to CMS and Colorado) - if this committee is going to rank high SOS teams with losing records, I don't know that a .548 gets their attention, if they even get on the board.
Region 7 I think they go all the way down to Wittenberg though I guess Wittenberg could be on the bubble if enough weird things happen. I actually like #7 Muskingum with a .641 and 5 ranked wins (including Otterbein), over #6 Otterbein with a .562 and 3 ranked wins. Luckily they play it out tonight.
Region 8 I could see Stevens Point hanging around on the board for an extra round or two but they get in, as does Chicago. Like Region 7, I like Osh Kosh as a tournament team more than Aurora, which would be helped if Osh Kosh could get one more win, but they play Eau Claire so they probably need to rely on what they've accomplished so far. I don't see Earlham getting in.
Region 9 The top 3 go in easy. Bethel at 3-5 vs ranked made me pause for a second, and splitting with Stevens Point and beating St. Olaf, Hamline, and Augsburg aren't the most exciting wins, but their only 5 losses are all to top teams. I think they are fairly safe so long as the loss is to GA and not to Hamline. Cornell at 2-7 vs ranked seems like a no - most the losses are respectable but I think they need another headline win besides Muskingum.
Region X Top 4 are all definitely in. Pomona with 1 ranked win over Whitworth, the 7th ranked team in the west, is leaving me wanting. Even if you give them a mulligan for the first week, they could be on the board with Santa Cruz and Oshkosh who they lost to head to head. I don't see a path for them. And Mary Hardin Baylor, I think they need to win their conference.
Feel free to disagree. I'm sure the committee will!
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Post by bigfan on Nov 4, 2021 13:00:29 GMT -5
Sharing some thoughts, region by region. I'm not sure I'm being consistent but then again, the committee isn't always consistent so here goes... Thanks for this...............excellent analysis |
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 4, 2021 16:29:17 GMT -5
Sharing some thoughts, region by region. I'm not sure I'm being consistent but then again, the committee isn't always consistent so here goes... Feel free to disagree. I'm sure the committee will! I am assuming the pool A bids, only counting the C bids. Region 1 - Most of the scenarios I run have the NESCAC getting 3 bids. Region 2 - Seeing maybe 1 for the NEWMAC. Babson is blocking Springfield. Region 3 - (note: Keene State counts, anyone ranked 11/3 is counted, even if they drop in last poll) If they lose RIT will get a bid, Cortland should too. But the other schools need to go pool A. Region 4 - NYU if they need one for sure. Steven's might be the last team picked if they need one. Region 5 - Will do vey well, probably 3 or 4 C bids, with Stevenson being the fourth. Eastern needs to go pool A. Region 6 - Berry and Emory will get them if needed. They buried Santa Cruz, just mean, they have to go pool A. Don't really see another pool C besides likely Emory. Region 7 - Should be 4 pool Cs easy. Region 8 - Has a problem. With Aurora seriously over ranked and blocking basically ALL the schools below them. It could limit this strong region to 2 pool C bids. If that is fixed it could mean a ripple affecting many regions. Region 9 - Bethel with the lone C bid. Region 10 - Colorado College gets one. Southwestern should. I don't see Pomona. |
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Nov 4, 2021 22:13:02 GMT -5
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Nov 4, 2021 22:17:01 GMT -5
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 5, 2021 1:10:54 GMT -5
Moving the conference championship links forward. Check out your league of interest for Friday 11/5 matches. A quick look does not find any upsets of significance so far. |
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Nov 5, 2021 8:57:29 GMT -5
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Nov 5, 2021 14:25:44 GMT -5
Bold Brutus prediction for that match: Hiram in 4
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