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Post by coahc21 on Nov 8, 2021 7:52:11 GMT -5
My Pool C Predictions (please take with a grain of salt...first time doing this): Region 1: Wesleyan, Tufts, Middlebury Region 2: Babson, Springfield, Coast Guard Region 3: RIT Region 4: None Region 5: Susquehanna, Haverford, Scranton, Stevenson Region 6: Emory Region 7: Hope, Otterbein, Denison, Muskingum Region 8: Whitewater Region 9: Bethel Region 10: Southwestern (TX), Colorado First 4 out: Amherst, Stevens Point, Chicago, Messiah Like I said, first time trying this... A fellow New Englander I am guessing. I like the spirit, but Babson and Coast Guard over Stevens Point and Chicago is just crazy talk! Stevens Point and Chicago are both 100% sure things. Both will be picked by round 5 or 6. Haha I was going straight off data points used for regional rankings (W/L, SOS, ranked results, etc)...I knew it would be different on the national level as they weigh conference strength differently...good lesson for me to learn! |
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Post by coahc21 on Nov 8, 2021 7:58:44 GMT -5
Here are my 20 picks. I made 2 changes to the Nov 3rd rankings. I moved Springfield ahead of Babson, and I moved Mary Hardin-Baylor ahead of Pomona-Pitzer. Why on the second one? Just a gut feeling and years of listening. Man can not live by spreadsheets alone.(probably a huge mistake). I ran 20 scenarios and these 20 schools were all picked 70% or more of the time(11-100%, 4-95%, 1-90%, 2-80%, 1-75%, 1-70%). From there it was a sharp drop all the way down to 45% for the next school. 20 picks in order by estimated round picked:Hope Wisconsin-Whitewater Emory Colorado College Wisconsin-Stevens Point Chicago Susquehanna Bethel University Wesleyan University (CT) Denison Tufts Otterbein Southwestern Mary Hardin-Baylor RIT Springfield Muskingum Wisconsin-Oshkosh Middlebury Earlham the next 4 schools in the 20%-45% range: Concordia(WI), Haverford, Scranton, Stevenson the 9 left at the table: Amherst, Babson, Ithaca, Montclair State, Haverford, Birmingham-Southern, Carnegie Mellon, St. Olaf, Pomona-Pitzer I agreed on 17 of 20 with D3vbwest. I had MHB, RIT, and Earlham. He has Haverford, Scranton, and Stevenson. Geez, I'm the one taking a flyer on MHB! I also was 17 of 20 with Ricky Nelson. My MHB, Earlham, and Springfield. Versus his Amherst, Haverford, and Scranton. Hate to tell you, but MHB drops out of the rankings... Haverford is still ahead of Scranton and Stevenson in their region. Babson still ahead of Springfield. |
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Post by ned3vball on Nov 8, 2021 8:39:04 GMT -5
Here are my 20 picks. I made 2 changes to the Nov 3rd rankings. I moved Springfield ahead of Babson, and I moved Mary Hardin-Baylor ahead of Pomona-Pitzer. Why on the second one? Just a gut feeling and years of listening. Man can not live by spreadsheets alone.(probably a huge mistake). I ran 20 scenarios and 20 schools were all picked 70% or more of the time(11-100%, 4-95%, 1-90%, 2-80%, 1-75%, 1-70%). From there it was a sharp drop all the way down to 45% for the next school. Hate to tell you, but MHB drops out of the rankings... Haverford is still ahead of Scranton and Stevenson in their region. Babson still ahead of Springfield. My record of never predicting a RAC move correctly remains intact! That is a cold move on MHB, I thought they might give them a scheduling pass due to the special circumstances this season. Welcome to the tournament Haverford, Babson looks to go 0-20. |
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Post by coahc21 on Nov 8, 2021 9:03:04 GMT -5
Hate to tell you, but MHB drops out of the rankings... Haverford is still ahead of Scranton and Stevenson in their region. Babson still ahead of Springfield. My record of never predicting a RAC move correctly remains intact! That is a cold move on MHB, I thought they might give them a scheduling pass due to the special circumstances this season. Welcome to the tournament Haverford, Babson looks to go 0-20. Springfield never gets to the table if Babson doesn't come off....Babson remains 2 in that region |
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Post by bigfan on Nov 8, 2021 9:51:34 GMT -5
..............I moved Mary Hardin-Baylor ahead of Pomona-Pitzer. Why on the second one? Just a gut feeling and years of listening. Man can not live by spreadsheets alone.(probably a huge mistake). I call it west coast bias..............so CMS is the only D-3 team from the west coast in the entire playoffs.................... |
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Post by coahc21 on Nov 8, 2021 10:01:53 GMT -5
..............I moved Mary Hardin-Baylor ahead of Pomona-Pitzer. Why on the second one? Just a gut feeling and years of listening. Man can not live by spreadsheets alone.(probably a huge mistake). I call it west coast bias..............so CMS is the only D-3 team from the west coast in the entire playoffs.................... Pomona-Pitzer is the only other one that's regionally ranked...they will get to the table but will likely not come off...so to answer your question, yes! (But don't forget about Whitworth with their AQ) Gotta look at that RAC for bias, not the national committee |
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Post by caz on Nov 8, 2021 10:07:33 GMT -5
..............I moved Mary Hardin-Baylor ahead of Pomona-Pitzer. Why on the second one? Just a gut feeling and years of listening. Man can not live by spreadsheets alone.(probably a huge mistake). I call it west coast bias..............so CMS is the only D-3 team from the west coast in the entire playoffs.................... SCIAC and NWC need to work together in all sports to create scheduling alliances to maximize Pool C chances. The system that we have will never work in their favor, but certain measures can be taken. Have to stop wasting non-conference dates on NAIA and unaffiliated schools. |
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Nov 8, 2021 10:33:44 GMT -5
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Post by noreaster on Nov 8, 2021 11:27:54 GMT -5
Hate to tell you, but MHB drops out of the rankings... Haverford is still ahead of Scranton and Stevenson in their region. Babson still ahead of Springfield. My record of never predicting a RAC move correctly remains intact! That is a cold move on MHB, I thought they might give them a scheduling pass due to the special circumstances this season. Welcome to the tournament Haverford, Babson looks to go 0-20. They were ranking losing teams with high SOS (St. Olaf and Stockton). That's why I actually think Ithaca has an outside shot at getting in. MHB with a sub-.500 SOS would historically have a Blutarski like 0.0 chance of making the tournament. In the covid year? Ok, maybe it isn't 0.0 but it's not good. Haverford on the other hand, I don't see how they are on the bubble. They are an obvious "yes" to me. And on the discussion of the west coast, it takes 3 drivable teams to host a region. If Southwestern doesn't get in, and Texas is just Trinity and UT-Dallas, I think all 5 west region teams could get flown east. A couple to complete a south regional and then a few peppered around the country. The upside of CMS, Trinity and Colorado being in 3 different regions, as far as the west is concerned, is that's a chance for 3 west region teams to all make it to St. Louis. |
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Post by noreaster on Nov 8, 2021 12:35:55 GMT -5
The geography is interesting so far...
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Post by noreaster on Nov 8, 2021 13:06:17 GMT -5
Curious to see Muskingum's final numbers vs Ithaca's, and Denison's final numbers vs Springfield's. I'm surprised, but not shocked that Southwestern got in.
I think the bracketing is far more interesting than the bubble decisions.
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Post by jcvball22 on Nov 8, 2021 13:41:07 GMT -5
Claremont heading to Waverly, Iowa should be a fun trip...
Very interesting how the regions were split up. I kind of like that Hope and Calvin aren't in the same grouping. And Juniata and Johns Hopkins were put in different brackets.
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Post by Brutus Buckeye on Nov 8, 2021 13:50:42 GMT -5
Ridiculous.
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Post by coachk2 on Nov 8, 2021 13:51:30 GMT -5
Claremont heading to Waverly, Iowa should be a fun trip... Very interesting how the regions were split up. I kind of like that Hope and Calvin aren't in the same grouping. And Juniata and Johns Hopkins were put in different brackets. Interesting comments. Also the reseeding 🏐 at the Final 8 makes the balance of the Final bracket balanced ⚖️ so two strong teams don’t have to meet in the QF. 🤔 Glad I live 5 minutes away from WUSTL Field House for spectator purposes. 👀 |
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Post by jcvball22 on Nov 8, 2021 19:49:12 GMT -5
Claremont heading to Waverly, Iowa should be a fun trip... Very interesting how the regions were split up. I kind of like that Hope and Calvin aren't in the same grouping. And Juniata and Johns Hopkins were put in different brackets. Interesting comments. Also the reseeding 🏐 at the Final 8 makes the balance of the Final bracket balanced ⚖️ so two strong teams don’t have to meet in the QF. 🤔 Glad I live 5 minutes away from WUSTL Field House for spectator purposes. 👀 It makes me a little sad that WashU did not make the field this year. That has to be a first in a VERY long time. I have many fond memories of rivalry matches against them, including playing them for the National Championship. I do not, however, miss their Christmas-color, red and green gym.... |
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