Fall 2021 Bracketology (10/9)

[trojansc]

Fall 2021 Bracketology (10/9/2021) 

NCAA Selection Show: Sunday, November 28th - Time TBA
Notes below, please avoid quoting entire original post.
*Conference re-matches avoided in 1st and 2nd rounds

Pittsburgh Regional - Region #1

(1) Pittsburgh vs. Delaware State
Michigan vs. Princeton

(16) UCLA vs. UCSB
Penn State vs. San Diego

(8) Kentucky vs. Tennessee Tech
Western Kentucky vs. Illinois

(9) BYU vs. Weber State
Utah vs. UNLV

Madison Regional - Region #4

(4) Wisconsin vs. Milwaukee
Stanford vs. Notre Dame

(13) South Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Florida State vs. High Point

(5) Baylor vs. Sam Houston State
Rice vs. Houston

(12) Oregon vs. Fairfield
Kansas vs. Syracuse

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Louisville Regional - Region #3

(3) Louisville vs. Colgate
Ohio State vs. Bowling Green

(14) Minnesota vs. Loyola-Chicago
Marquette vs. Iowa State

(6) Purdue vs. UMBC
Washington vs. Dayton

(11) Tennessee vs. Elon
North Carolina vs. Loyola Marymount

Austin Regional - Region #2

(2) Texas vs. Houston Baptist
Texas A&M vs. Washington State

(15) UCF vs. Florida A&M
Miami-FL vs. Florida Gulf Coast

(7) Georgia Tech vs. Mercer
Florida vs. Texas Tech

(10) Nebraska vs. Bryant
Creighton vs. Nebraska-Omaha


LAST 4 IN: Syracuse, Loyola Marymount, Houston, Iowa State

FIRST 4 OUT: Pepperdine, Colorado, Mississippi State, West Virginia

NEXT 4 OUT: Kansas State, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Arkansas

ELIGIBILITY ISSUE: Southern California is predicted to be <.500 and thus ineligible for the NCAA Tournament

OTHER teams potentially in the mix: Arizona, UTEP, Arizona State, Duke, St. John's, Maryland, SMU

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Notes:

I do not have any official, measurable way of doing this. I do not evenly weigh any factors of RPI, RPI Futures by bluepenquin , Pablo, historic precedence, etc. I take into account all of those things and make an accurate projection based on what has happened to date and what I think *could* reasonably happen in the future to result in a bracket that looks like this.  That said, the bracket is bracketed to what the committee usually does with seeding the Top 16 teams and placing subregional teams with a priority of geography and having the most amount of teams in subregionals that are within <400 miles of their host without jeopardizing the integrity of the bracket too much.

The WCC is not in great shape. BYU has a light resume and will not get helped much by the conference. If Utah starts to struggle in the PAC, they could be out of a seed. Despite Pepperdine beating LMU, I have LMU in and Pepperdine out as of now. I like LMU's win over Kansas to end up being good and also Pepperdine's loss to Pacific could really end up hurting. Of course, these two meet H2H again so it could easily flip again. San Diego does not have much breathing room either - though it would help if USC can get back above .500 and if they can get at least a couple wins against BYU/LMU/Pepperdine. The conference will max out at 4 bids -- but I think they get 3. If the conference parity gets to be too much, then this will be a 2-bid league.

I am not sold yet on Ohio State because their best win is Washington, a team who is in RPI trouble as it is. They have plenty of chances to get seeded and easily earn their way in. The Big Ten now to me looks like a solid 8-bid league with Michigan and Illinois looking like sure tournament teams. They could tank, but, the separation looks good enough to get those 8 teams in. I'm not sold on Maryland, though if they end up borderline, that Wisconsin win could tip the balance in their favor. It was looking like Nebraska to Creighton for a while there, but, I've flipped it and I like Creighton unseeded to seeded Nebraska. It's not impossible there are two Nebraska subregionals though, with both of those hosting. Minnesota gets the nod for now, but, Penn State or Ohio State could easily flop with them for a seed spot.

The PAC is a mess. I don't know what to do with it. The RPI is looking messy and if they beat up on each other, it's quite possible only one team gets seeded. Washington's RPI is a problem. Stanford has good RPI potential - but I'm not sold on them being Top 2 in the PAC just yet. I went with Oregon and UCLA for now. UCLA doesn't have a lot of wiggle room either, similar to Washington. Oregon's Rice and Penn State could propel them to a seed. Oh, I have Colorado missing the tournament because I think they'll hit a downward spiral because of Leah Clayton being removed off the roster. USC is going to have trouble finishing .500, if they get there, they will have a chance. They need Hawaii to keep winning, that's for sure.

Speaking of that, I have UCSB winning the Big West because Hawaii has just looked wildly inconsistent lately.

The ACC Train is rolling. Well, Louisville and Pitt are legit and I'm really thinking it's looking like a pretty good chance both of those teams are regional hosts. Crazy. The other Top 16 seeds - I'm not sure what's going to happen. I only have three for now, but, with all the RPI potential, it does seem like 4 is likely. Even with a H2H loss - you can easily flip Miami-FL and UCF in my bracket. This could be a close call. FSU and Miami-FL have more potential than UCF. Syracuse was a hard choice here. I actually put them (and Houston) in over Mississippi State because both of those teams beat Mississippi State. The RPI inflation is just probably going to be too good to leave the Orange out. Oh, and if you didn't notice, yeah, I like Notre Dame to make it to .500 and make it into the tournament.

I'm very interested to see who wins the Kentucky/Tennessee match and if Florida can get hot and play its way back into seeding contention. There are four schools with a legitimate chance to host in the state of Florida - that's quite interesting. Right now, I like Kentucky to win the SEC and be the top representative from that conference. Tennessee has some potential to get seeded very high as well though. South Carolina really wants UCF to not falter too much in the AAC and remain a T25 win (x2). Texas A&M has picked up some big wins and makes them a great at-large contender. Ole Miss will have a big WKU win on its resume - but I think they are coming back down to earth and will miss the tournament. The Egg Bowl is only a week away and that match could be a major determinant of whether either of the Mississippi schools make the tournament - they could both find themselves Last 4 in/First 4 out with the H2H winner making it in, loser making it out. Oh, and, Fran, I'm disappointed (yet again).

I like Iowa State right now over WVU in the Big 12, but that could also easily flip. Texas is not a guarantee for a Top 4 seed - it gets interesting particularly if Baylor wins both meetings in Waco. Though, a split, and I think Texas is in excellent position to even allow for a hiccup or two and they'll still be fine. With the good RPI in the Big 12, even 2 losses to 'others' from Texas don't look like bad losses, they will still likely be T25/T50 teams. I don't see the Big 12 getting a third seed though - they will probably beat up on each other too much.

[trojansc]

Usually I release these after weeks have completed instead of mid-weeks, but I've been a little busy. Not sure when I'll have the next update, but we've got enough data now to make some reasonable projections. Some of the projected AQ's from smaller conference might not be based on complete up to date information and I don't always take the favorite and/or #1 team in standings from those conferences here.

[chatchu-off moksri]

Whew, some of these first round matchups are BRUTAL.

[c4ndlelight]

Stanford to Madison is just cruel to the Badgers.

[Kingsley]

Oct 9, 2021 0:58:51 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Stanford to Madison is just cruel to the Badgers.

Hell, let Inky suit up

[trojansc]

Oct 9, 2021 0:58:51 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Stanford to Madison is just cruel to the Badgers.

I think it's near a guarantee that a PAC team is heading to Minnesota or Wisconsin should both of those teams host. From my count now, I have less flights than the brackets in the past decade. Of course, that depends how the AQ's fall, but it's looking like a pretty friendly bracket for geography/minimizing travel.

Penn State could draw two P5 teams and still have a softer subregional (Syracuse and West Virginia, for example). But If Penn State has to travel... they could have a very tough path.

[ay2013]

Well I knew we’d see some interesting 1st round matchups given the RPI futures, but as if we need any additional reason to hate regionalization, UCF and South Carolina’s sub regional are a joke, meanwhile a top 4 seed draws… Stanford

[bucky415]

Oct 9, 2021 0:58:51 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Stanford to Madison is just cruel to the Badgers.

Yeah, except for the Badgers might finally beat them!

[bluepenquin]

Interesting to see the # of 3 seeds from 1 bid conferences that may not get a seed w/o winning their conference tournament. This seems higher than usual.

South Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Tennessee are relatively new seed teams that I just don't have a handle on their drive-in opportunities. Looks like a shift from the West and Midwest to the Southeast in terms of seeded teams.

And looks like something similar for those 1 team conferences.

[bluepenquin]

What is the Big West tie breaker for the conference auto? I assume they still don't have a conference tournament. Pablo slightly likes Hawaii, but the remaining schedule slightly favors UCSB.

[Deleted]

That Pittsburgh regional is brutal

[bluepenquin]

The Big East conference champ will get an RPI Futures boost. I think there is still a very good chance that the winner's RPI is going to be too good not to get a seed - unless the winner isn't Creighton/Marquette, or they fall on their face during the regular conference season.

Someone is likely to add UConn in the first round of the conference tournament, and that is an RPI plus - plus getting that finals win.

Nebraska sure looks like a likely seed - so could still end up with two seeds from that state.

[bprtbone]

I haven't dug too deep on this yet but there is no way in H-E-double hockey sticks that Penn State will get sent to LA. Far more likely that the Committee will bend over backwards to let them host.

[tedheise]

Oct 9, 2021 0:48:48 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I like Iowa State right now over WVU in the Big 12, but that could also easily flip.

I think you may have jinxed the Cyclones.

[n00b]

I’d be surprised to see teams that are on the bubble to host (Ohio State, Stanford?) get sent to top 4 seeds. I know there isn’t anything explicit prohibiting it, but I do think the committee tries to protect top teams a bit. Looking back at the four brackets we’ve had with the top seed hosting, toughest round 2 opponents have been teams like RPI #23 Hawaii, #25 Texas A&M, or #20 TCU (but they had 12 losses).