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Post by horns1 on Feb 3, 2023 15:07:02 GMT -5
And now with a second season either the Big 12 simply goes home and away, so BYU gets a home game against Texas, or they spread the wealth and get UCF in on the action. I'm guessing UCF will get a home game against either Texas or Oklahoma. Over on the BYU message board, some think that in the interest of fairness, BYU might not play either next year because they're playing both this year (hosting Oklahoma and playing at Texas). However, I think BYU versus Texas or Oklahoma is an attractive matchup for the TV partners who are the ones who really call the shots these days. So I think Texas making a trip to Provo in 2024 is pretty likely. That makes sense. Very odd scheduling in football. Somehow, every Texas school (Tech, Baylor, TCU, Baylor, Houston, and Texas) gets to play the other 5 schools, I believe; that can't be a coincidence; somebody made it a condition. And, Oklahoma State, doesn't play any of the Texas schools except newcomer Houston.
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Post by slxpress on Feb 3, 2023 15:30:59 GMT -5
I genuinely expected Texas and Oklahoma to be in the SEC before 2025. I knew there would be large obstacles, and that Fox & the remaining Big XII members would have every interest in keeping those money-making programs as long as possible, but I expected enough $$$ to change hands to move this along. I don't think that's an uncommon belief. I also don't think we've seen the last of this. Things can still change. I don't think there would be much non-financial obstacles with the existing B12 schools. As much as they aren't/weren't happy with TX/OK, I think they would rather move on w/o them than have this going on for another couple of years. I think they would 'settle' for being financially whole - and I think this could be done with ESPN and TX/OK. It is FOX that would be the major obstacle. They really don't have an incentive to cooperate even if made financially whole. The financial gap with FOX is significant - but they would also be the ones most likely to carry a grudge and have zero interest in moving on. They aren't going to want to help ESPN in any of this - in fact the opposite. Yeah, I completely underestimated Fox’s willingness to throw a kink in it because of their 37% share of the TV rights. They want to extract a pound of flesh in a way the Big 12 schools aren’t looking to. I still think it could get done, but Fox’s veto power on this has stymied things in a way I honestly didn’t anticipate. It’s inportaht to note like you said. At this point it isn’t the Big 12 schools being petty. They’re as much ready to move on as UT/OU are, as long as they’re dealt with fairly. Honestly I wouldn’t have blamed them for some pettiness. In particular Oklahoma State. They’re more PO’ed than everyone else combined, I’d say. But that’s simply not the case.
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Post by horns1 on Feb 3, 2023 15:41:58 GMT -5
I can't help but laugh at how so many things have come full circle:
- Back in the early 2000's, Texas was close to joining the PAC with a few other Big 12 schools; would have been a huge get for FOX, and a huge loss for ESPN - ESPN was not going to let FOX have Texas; so, they offer Texas the Longhorn Network and $300 million over 20 years - Texas officials decide that money from ESPN is too good to pass up, and nixed deal with PAC - Texas A&M decides they can't afford to stay in the Big 12 and always be running $15 million short of Texas annually; they decide to move to the SEC - Athletic directors from Texas and Oklahoma (I believe that's who it was) propose the idea of a Granting of Rights to make sure no other schools can leave "us"; Mizzou decides they won't sign it and eventually leave for the SEC - Texas and OU didn't realize that one day THEY would be the schools that would be wanting to leave sooner rather than later and break the GOR, and the other schools were willing to sign the GOR because they had nowhere else to go (and Texas and OU voluntarily tying themselves to these other schools for 15-20 years was like Christmas morning) - Texas and Oklahoma propose equal revenue sharing for all members of the Big 12 as a gesture of good faith (I believe that's how that went down)
Texas officials truly believed they had won that round of conference realignment. Deloss Dodds had no vision and could not see the forest through the trees. He was so clueless that he thought the Big 12 had a good chance to add Notre Dame as a full member back then. He had no vision that B1G and SEC would be increasing their TV revenue exponentially each year, thus leaving Texas' LHN deal stagnant. I actually expected better from OU's AD, Joe Castiglione.
So, Texas, OU and ESPN only have Texas, OU and ESPN to blame for the current fork in the road. They are the ones now pushing for Texas to join the SEC as soon as possible, but they had a direct hand in why that is more difficult than expected.
Texas and ESPN already screwed over FOX before; I can see why FOX isn't gonna be accommodating. And, didn't the new Big 12 negotiate its next TV contract with ESPN, and not with FOX? Might have been with both.
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Post by horns1 on Feb 3, 2023 15:50:42 GMT -5
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Post by horns1 on Feb 3, 2023 16:10:52 GMT -5
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Post by bbg95 on Feb 3, 2023 16:41:05 GMT -5
Including Notre Dame as an example is silly. It's an exception in all kinds of ways. It's the 800lb gorilla when it comes to conference affiliation. Notre Dame joining a conference is going to be like the Cubs finally winning the World Series. I mean, that happened. Notre Dame likely isn't joining a conference. But the idea that Gonzaga would be kept out due to being Catholic is pretty dubious. I think Gonzaga going to the Big 12 is less likely than not at this point, but I think it's mostly about football and somewhat about geography.
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Post by slxpress on Feb 3, 2023 16:43:29 GMT -5
I can't help but laugh at how so many things have come full circle: - Back in the early 2000's, Texas was close to joining the PAC with a few other Big 12 schools; would have been a huge get for FOX, and a huge loss for ESPN - ESPN was not going to let FOX have Texas; so, they offer Texas the Longhorn Network and $300 million over 20 years - Texas officials decide that money from ESPN is too good to pass up, and nixed deal with PAC - Texas A&M decides they can't afford to stay in the Big 12 and always be running $15 million short of Texas annually; they decide to move to the SEC - Athletic directors from Texas and Oklahoma (I believe that's who it was) propose the idea of a Granting of Rights to make sure no other schools can leave "us"; Mizzou decides they won't sign it and eventually leave for the SEC - Texas and OU didn't realize that one day THEY would be the schools that would be wanting to leave sooner rather than later and break the GOR, and the other schools were willing to sign the GOR because they had nowhere else to go (and Texas and OU voluntarily tying themselves to these other schools for 15-20 years was like Christmas morning) - Texas and Oklahoma propose equal revenue sharing for all members of the Big 12 as a gesture of good faith (I believe that's how that went down) Texas officials truly believed they had won that round of conference realignment. Deloss Dodds had no vision and could not see the forest through the trees. He was so clueless that he thought the Big 12 had a good chance to add Notre Dame as a full member back then. He had no vision that B1G and SEC would be increasing their TV revenue exponentially each year, thus leaving Texas' LHN deal stagnant. I actually expected better from OU's AD, Joe Castiglione. So, Texas, OU and ESPN only have Texas, OU and ESPN to blame for the current fork in the road. They are the ones now pushing for Texas to join the SEC as soon as possible, but they had a direct hand in why that is more difficult than expected. Texas and ESPN already screwed over FOX before; I can see why FOX isn't gonna be accommodating. And, didn't the new Big 12 negotiate its next TV contract with ESPN, and not with FOX? Might have been with both. The next deal is with both. Agree Dodds got depantsed. I love the LHN, but outside of that his conference realignment approach was pathetic.
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Post by bbg95 on Feb 3, 2023 16:45:30 GMT -5
I think Gonzaga's religious affiliation is almost a non-factor for the Big 12. Notre Dame wouldn't have any problem getting an invite. I think it's mostly about football. In fact, I think geography is actually a bigger potential issue than the fact that Gonzaga is a Catholic school. www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/gonzagas-candidacy-pac-12s-future-texas-and-oklahoma-exit-plans-on-deck-with-big-12-brass-set-to-meet/Here is the correct link from Dodd. Among Gonzaga's concerns with joining the B12, Big East, PAC: 1) The B12 would possibly be basketball only. That means the rest of the sports would have to find a home. If B12 allowed the other sports (not sure they would want them) - it would add considerable cost to the program Gonzaga in terms of travel. 2) If I read this correctly - Gonzaga basically gets 100% of the basketball tournament money. If they joined the B12, they would have to share. At the end of the day - Gonzaga would have to get more money out of moving than staying (obviously). And even then, they would have some concerns for the rest of the sports. As for SDSU being a possibility for the B12 - this is essentially coming from the commissioner who wants schools in the pacific time zone. I don't think the existing schools are necessarily on that same page yet. And this sounds more like exploratory thinking than actual plan. 1. I don't think a basketball-only membership is even possible. "Basketball-only" really means a member school that doesn't play football. 2. Gonzaga gets a higher percent of its NCAA Tournament units, but it's not 100%. The actual number is not public. Agree on SDSU. I think Yormark wants to get into the fourth time zone. I'm not necessarily convinced he was talking about SDSU.
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Post by bbg95 on Feb 3, 2023 17:13:11 GMT -5
I genuinely expected Texas and Oklahoma to be in the SEC before 2025. I knew there would be large obstacles, and that Fox & the remaining Big XII members would have every interest in keeping those money-making programs as long as possible, but I expected enough $$$ to change hands to move this along. I don't think that's an uncommon belief. I also don't think we've seen the last of this. Things can still change. I don't think there would be much non-financial obstacles with the existing B12 schools. As much as they aren't/weren't happy with TX/OK, I think they would rather move on w/o them than have this going on for another couple of years. I think they would 'settle' for being financially whole - and I think this could be done with ESPN and TX/OK. It is FOX that would be the major obstacle. They really don't have an incentive to cooperate even if made financially whole. The financial gap with FOX is significant - but they would also be the ones most likely to carry a grudge and have zero interest in moving on. They aren't going to want to help ESPN in any of this - in fact the opposite. Good post. Based on Ross Dellenger's report in Sports Illustrated, it sounds like the "Hateful Eight" did come to an agreement with Texas and Oklahoma to let them leave a year early. But the networks are holding it up, particularly FOX. Aside from whatever grudges FOX may be holding, I saw someone on another message board make an interesting point about what FOX may be thinking that is more financial in nature. FOX might think that the Big 12 will be more valuable ratings-wise in the next two seasons just because of all the different factors in play. Texas and Oklahoma being there for two more years, the four new additions, and TCU coming off a trip to the national championship game are a few that I can think of. And I find that belief to be pretty plausible.
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Post by stevehorn on Feb 3, 2023 18:31:08 GMT -5
He later somewhat changed his story.
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Post by bbg95 on Feb 3, 2023 19:24:39 GMT -5
I'm guessing UCF will get a home game against either Texas or Oklahoma. Over on the BYU message board, some think that in the interest of fairness, BYU might not play either next year because they're playing both this year (hosting Oklahoma and playing at Texas). However, I think BYU versus Texas or Oklahoma is an attractive matchup for the TV partners who are the ones who really call the shots these days. So I think Texas making a trip to Provo in 2024 is pretty likely. That makes sense. Very odd scheduling in football. Somehow, every Texas school (Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston, and Texas) gets to play the other 4 schools, I believe; that can't be a coincidence; somebody made it a condition. And, Oklahoma State, doesn't play any of the Texas schools except newcomer Houston. That's very interesting. I agree that it can't be a coincidence. I'd be pretty annoyed if I was Oklahoma State.
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Post by bbg95 on Feb 9, 2023 19:53:52 GMT -5
I stand corrected. Looks like Texas and Oklahoma managed to get out a year early after all.
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Post by slxpress on Feb 9, 2023 19:56:21 GMT -5
I stand corrected. Looks like Texas and Oklahoma managed to get out a year early after all. I'm sorry. I couldn't hear you because I was too close to the situation.
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Post by bbg95 on Feb 9, 2023 19:57:13 GMT -5
I stand corrected. Looks like Texas and Oklahoma managed to get out a year early after all. I'm sorry. I couldn't hear you because I was too close to the situation. Lol, you were. Things changed. Based on your posts, I'm certain that you thought it would be easier than it was. And I never said that a deal couldn't get done. I always said that it was still possible. Just that it wasn't going to be as easy as Texas fans thought. Thank Brett Yormark and be on your way. From my perspective, I don't really care. One year or two doesn't make much of a difference for me. The new Big 12 is what I'm focused on. Edit: The funniest thing to me is that Texas and Oklahoma were surprised that the new schools were joining in 2023 instead of 2024. Were they asleep?
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Post by slxpress on Feb 9, 2023 20:09:26 GMT -5
I'm sorry. I couldn't hear you because I was too close to the situation. Lol, you were. Things changed. Based on your posts, I'm certain that you thought it would be easier than it was. And I never said that a deal couldn't get done. I always said that it was still possible. Just that it wasn't going to be as easy as Texas fans thought. Thank Brett Yormark and be on your way. I never thought it would be easy. I don't pretend to know all the machinations involved. Either in the original decision to move to the SEC, the negotiations that went on there - especially successfully keeping A&M out of the loop - nor what it took to exit by 2024. I was told it was going to get done by people who are extremely wealthy - not billionaires, but worth $500m and up, who were movers and shakers in their respective industries, and used to getting things done, so I believed it would get done. It's just funny having someone who gets their information from reading on the internet - which you do a lot of, for sure, with a good memory retention - lecture me on how I was just too close to the situation. In any case, we're outta here after next year, and I for one couldn't be happier. The Big 12 already looks extremely viable post exit, so I'm sure BYU is in the best conference affiliation situation they've been in...ever. Looks like a good situation for all involved.
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