bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Jul 28, 2023 7:31:53 GMT -5
July 31 is approaching quickly. Colorado taking the first step has to be because they have no faith the PAC will be signing a TV deal close to what the Big 12 did; so, might as well leave for teh bigger payout. Just good business sense. That being said, and Colorado does bolt, I expect at least one other PAC school to accept an invitation to join the Big 12 by July 31. Arizona is my choice. Colorado making an apparent move right now is probably the worst-case outcome for UConn. I don't see the Big 12 extending them an invite unless several other PAC candidates take a pass. The other thing is that the Big 12 supposedly gave Colorado an end of July deadline. I agree that Arizona is most likely to join them. As for UConn, I think they'll be okay. Their football program would likely continue to be bad, but that's a basketball school, and the Big East works fine for basketball. A couple things in here that I am interested in your opinion. Found out yesterday that UConn leaving the Big East would cost $30M in exit fees. Not sure if it would be the same amount or less if they were to delay until 2025-26 (and the B12 just go with 13 for a year). Otherwise - $30M seems like a big number to bring UConn in. I have seen this now in a couple places - speculation that the B12 gave Colorado a July 31 deadline. Why would the B12 do this? It makes it sound like there is something else in the works. Or that Colorado wasn't really their top target. I am having trouble connecting the pieces on this (assuming that speculation is true). |
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Post by mikegarrison on Jul 28, 2023 7:42:33 GMT -5
Agreed no conference would pay $60 million for Washington State standalone. But some conference might be willing to pay $120 million for Washington and Washington State as a package, then it would be up to those two universities to divvy up the $120 million. Maybe it’s not 50/50 like I wrote. I have to believe that Washington does care about Washington State at least a little, and would rather not leave them behind if they don’t need to. The Big 10 is trying to justify taking a cut to share with UW. They will not then also reduce their share to let in Washington State, anymore than they will then add Western, Eastern and Central Washington, as well as the Puyallup College for Typewriter Maintenance. I do believe you just made up "the Puyallup College for Typewriter Maintenance". But how about the Evergreen State College Geoducks? www.evergreen.edu/geoduck/speedy-evergreens-geoduck-mascot |
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Post by horns1 on Jul 28, 2023 7:52:03 GMT -5
The other thing is that the Big 12 supposedly gave Colorado an end of July deadline. I agree that Arizona is most likely to join them. As for UConn, I think they'll be okay. Their football program would likely continue to be bad, but that's a basketball school, and the Big East works fine for basketball. A couple things in here that I am interested in your opinion. Found out yesterday that UConn leaving the Big East would cost $30M in exit fees. Not sure if it would be the same amount or less if they were to delay until 2025-26 (and the B12 just go with 13 for a year). Otherwise - $30M seems like a big number to bring UConn in. I have seen this now in a couple places - speculation that the B12 gave Colorado a July 31 deadline. Why would the B12 do this? It makes it sound like there is something else in the works. Or that Colorado wasn't really their top target. I am having trouble connecting the pieces on this (assuming that speculation is true). Not sure if that is a fact or not. But, even if they had not imposed a July 31 deadline, that date on Monday is the last possible date a school can provide notice to its current conference that they intend to leave without having to remain a member for an additional year (or some kind of requirement like that). I forget the exact "penalties"; but, July 31 is of great significance. Believe that was the date UCLA, USC, Texas, and OU all provided notice the past 2 years. And, I do agree that Colorado is not the Big 12's primary target. But, someone has to be first when you are looking to add multiple schools. Personally, I think the Big 12 showing interest in UConn was just used as a ploy to put a sense of urgency on the PAC schools. All the rumors about the Big 12 possibly adding Gonzaga and/or UConn only for basketball was most likely a fallback plan if the PAC conference ended up getting an acceptable TV deal. |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 28, 2023 8:46:23 GMT -5
The other thing is that the Big 12 supposedly gave Colorado an end of July deadline. I agree that Arizona is most likely to join them. As for UConn, I think they'll be okay. Their football program would likely continue to be bad, but that's a basketball school, and the Big East works fine for basketball. A couple things in here that I am interested in your opinion. Found out yesterday that UConn leaving the Big East would cost $30M in exit fees. Not sure if it would be the same amount or less if they were to delay until 2025-26 (and the B12 just go with 13 for a year). Otherwise - $30M seems like a big number to bring UConn in. I have seen this now in a couple places - speculation that the B12 gave Colorado a July 31 deadline. Why would the B12 do this? It makes it sound like there is something else in the works. Or that Colorado wasn't really their top target. I am having trouble connecting the pieces on this (assuming that speculation is true). First, I'm surprised that the Big East, a non-football conference, has such a high exit fee. But it appears that they do. When I looked into this, the article I read pointed out that the difference in revenue between the Big East and Big 12 is high enough that it would likely cover the $30 million after one year. As for the deadline, there are a couple of things going on. At some point, it's just unfeasible to add a school for the next year if you wait too you long. But also, the Big 12 seemed to know that Colorado was the most likely school to jump (after all, they had already done so just 12 years prior). So if they gave them a deadline, that would put extra pressure on Colorado to make a decision. Deadlines are pretty effective motivators, and it seems to have worked. |
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Post by savannahbadger on Jul 28, 2023 9:23:34 GMT -5
July 31 is approaching quickly. Colorado taking the first step has to be because they have no faith the PAC will be signing a TV deal close to what the Big 12 did; so, might as well leave for teh bigger payout. Just good business sense. That being said, and Colorado does bolt, I expect at least one other PAC school to accept an invitation to join the Big 12 by July 31. Arizona is my choice. Arizona makes sense and would definitely solidify the Big 12 as a powerful basketball conference, but I saw a rumor that the next team to join with Colorado would be a surprise. That said, I’m not sure anything would be more surprising than Cal making the jump, but they’ve gotta feel a bit jilted with UCLA bailing on them. They’re only an after thought for the Big Ten (taking Stanford & Notre Dame is likely their endgame), and would only come as a pair with Stanford if ND isn’t going to happen. Why not jump to the B12 now before the P12 ship sinks? |
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
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Posts: 13,268
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Post by bluepenquin on Jul 28, 2023 9:25:43 GMT -5
A couple things in here that I am interested in your opinion. Found out yesterday that UConn leaving the Big East would cost $30M in exit fees. Not sure if it would be the same amount or less if they were to delay until 2025-26 (and the B12 just go with 13 for a year). Otherwise - $30M seems like a big number to bring UConn in. I have seen this now in a couple places - speculation that the B12 gave Colorado a July 31 deadline. Why would the B12 do this? It makes it sound like there is something else in the works. Or that Colorado wasn't really their top target. I am having trouble connecting the pieces on this (assuming that speculation is true). Not sure if that is a fact or not. But, even if they had not imposed a July 31 deadline, that date on Monday is the last possible date a school can provide notice to its current conference that they intend to leave without having to remain a member for an additional year (or some kind of requirement like that). I forget the exact "penalties"; but, July 31 is of great significance. Believe that was the date UCLA, USC, Texas, and OU all provided notice the past 2 years. And, I do agree that Colorado is not the Big 12's primary target. But, someone has to be first when you are looking to add multiple schools. Personally, I think the Big 12 showing interest in UConn was just used as a ploy to put a sense of urgency on the PAC schools. All the rumors about the Big 12 possibly adding Gonzaga and/or UConn only for basketball was most likely a fallback plan if the PAC conference ended up getting an acceptable TV deal. UCLA/USC/Texas/OK all had exit fees to worry about - where notice timing has deadlines on fees paid. My understanding - there is no such date for current members of the PAC. There is no exit fee. Actually - I am not sure UCLA/USC had to get so much notice in order to avoid fees. Their departure coincided with the end of the PAC TV contract. TX/OU was going to be more costly because they are leaving 1 year before the new contract ends (I think). Now - I do get there is a practical deadline for being able to start for 2024-25 - and maybe that was the self imposed deadline that the B12 had for Colorado - otherwise this would be pushed out another year. I think this date is mostly arbitrary for the B12 - as I think it is possible that they add one more for the 2024-25 year that gets done after 7/31? |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 28, 2023 9:32:38 GMT -5
July 31 is approaching quickly. Colorado taking the first step has to be because they have no faith the PAC will be signing a TV deal close to what the Big 12 did; so, might as well leave for teh bigger payout. Just good business sense. That being said, and Colorado does bolt, I expect at least one other PAC school to accept an invitation to join the Big 12 by July 31. Arizona is my choice. Arizona makes sense and would definitely solidify the Big 12 as a powerful basketball conference, but I saw a rumor that the next team to join with Colorado would be a surprise. That said, I’m not sure anything would be more surprising than Cal making the jump, but they’ve gotta feel a bit jilted with UCLA bailing on them. They’re only an after thought for the Big Ten (taking Stanford & Notre Dame is likely their endgame), and would only come as a pair with Stanford if ND isn’t going to happen. Why not jump to the B12 now before the P12 ship sinks? I've seen that rumor too, and other clues indicate that it pretty much has to be Oregon or Washington. That seemed incomprehensible not long ago. But with no media deal over a year later and Colorado joining USC and UCLA out the door, I think those schools have a tough decision. Suppose Arizona also leaves. Do they really want to stick it out in the Pac-8? Obviously, they want to be in the Big Ten. But what if that invite doesn't come? The Big 12 doesn't have unlimited space. It sounds like there will be four open spots at most, and Colorado just took one of them. Oregon and Washington are clearly more valuable than any of the four corners schools in my opinion. But if they wait too long, they could be stuck in a glorified Mountain West for the foreseeable future. |
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Jul 28, 2023 9:33:12 GMT -5
July 31 is approaching quickly. Colorado taking the first step has to be because they have no faith the PAC will be signing a TV deal close to what the Big 12 did; so, might as well leave for teh bigger payout. Just good business sense. That being said, and Colorado does bolt, I expect at least one other PAC school to accept an invitation to join the Big 12 by July 31. Arizona is my choice. Arizona makes sense and would definitely solidify the Big 12 as a powerful basketball conference, but I saw a rumor that the next team to join with Colorado would be a surprise. That said, I’m not sure anything would be more surprising than Cal making the jump, but they’ve gotta feel a bit jilted with UCLA bailing on them. They’re only an after thought for the Big Ten (taking Stanford & Notre Dame is likely their endgame), and would only come as a pair with Stanford if ND isn’t going to happen. Why not jump to the B12 now before the P12 ship sinks? That rumor keeps making its way around - no idea if it has any legs (probably not). The reasonable 'surprise' team can only be Oregon or Washington (Oregon has been The school when reading between the lines). Oregon State and Washington State aren't going to happen in any world. Already a ton of rumors about Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, UConn and Gonzaga - so none of them would qualify as a 'surprise'. Cal or Stanford would be such a monumental shock - the phrase 'surprise' wouldn't do proper justice. The back of my mind keeps going to Colorado leaving was what will get Oregon to move (but I cannot figure out why Oregon is in any way hurt by just Colorado leaving for the B12). |
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Post by bbg95 on Jul 28, 2023 9:36:09 GMT -5
Not sure if that is a fact or not. But, even if they had not imposed a July 31 deadline, that date on Monday is the last possible date a school can provide notice to its current conference that they intend to leave without having to remain a member for an additional year (or some kind of requirement like that). I forget the exact "penalties"; but, July 31 is of great significance. Believe that was the date UCLA, USC, Texas, and OU all provided notice the past 2 years. And, I do agree that Colorado is not the Big 12's primary target. But, someone has to be first when you are looking to add multiple schools. Personally, I think the Big 12 showing interest in UConn was just used as a ploy to put a sense of urgency on the PAC schools. All the rumors about the Big 12 possibly adding Gonzaga and/or UConn only for basketball was most likely a fallback plan if the PAC conference ended up getting an acceptable TV deal. UCLA/USC/Texas/OK all had exit fees to worry about - where notice timing has deadlines on fees paid. My understanding - there is no such date for current members of the PAC. There is no exit fee. Actually - I am not sure UCLA/USC had to get so much notice in order to avoid fees. Their departure coincided with the end of the PAC TV contract. TX/OU was going to be more costly because they are leaving 1 year before the new contract ends (I think). Now - I do get there is a practical deadline for being able to start for 2024-25 - and maybe that was the self imposed deadline that the B12 had for Colorado - otherwise this would be pushed out another year. I think this date is mostly arbitrary for the B12 - as I think it is possible that they add one more for the 2024-25 year that gets done after 7/31? Yep, it's my understanding that any Pac-12 school that waits until the 2024 season to leave will pay no exit fee, which is astonishingly negligent on the part of the Pac-12. Even the SEC recently added a hefty exit fee (though the Big Ten might not have one) despite being about as secure as can be. |
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
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Posts: 13,268
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Post by bluepenquin on Jul 28, 2023 9:38:20 GMT -5
B12 short term dream scenario is probably Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Arizona. By getting Colorado to commit first - they have forced the hand with Arizona leaving Arizona State behind and given Utah a big 'No'.
If Oregon and Washington don't come - then this may still move Arizona to leave Arizona State behind - as the B12 would probably stop at 14 for now.
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Post by vbnerd on Jul 28, 2023 12:23:57 GMT -5
The Big 10 is trying to justify taking a cut to share with UW. They will not then also reduce their share to let in Washington State, anymore than they will then add Western, Eastern and Central Washington, as well as the Puyallup College for Typewriter Maintenance. I do believe you just made up "the Puyallup College for Typewriter Maintenance". But how about the Evergreen State College Geoducks? www.evergreen.edu/geoduck/speedy-evergreens-geoduck-mascotGuilty as charged  |
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Post by savannahbadger on Jul 28, 2023 12:44:08 GMT -5
Cal or Stanford would be such a monumental shock - the phrase 'surprise' wouldn't do proper justice. That’s why I think it’s likely to be one of those two. The academic factor would be THE biggest factor in why they’d be such a surprise, TBH. That’s why one of the two is destined to be a target of the Big Ten, but not both. As someone else noted, either of those two (or both) could end up in the MWC if they don’t act, though Stanford could reasonably become an independent. I don’t think Cal could pull that off. If someone really wanted Washington and Oregon, they’d be in a conference right now. I don’t see the Big Ten getting enough value in those two, as that would dilute the shares of the TV money. Notre Dame is the endgame, and they’ll take whatever is left on the board of the current PAC-12 schools. ND brings enough to offset the dilution of another member, even if it was a MAC/Sun Belt level school. |
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Post by boxcariii on Jul 28, 2023 12:50:27 GMT -5
That rumor keeps making its way around - no idea if it has any legs (probably not). The reasonable 'surprise' team can only be Oregon or Washington (Oregon has been The school when reading between the lines). Oregon State and Washington State aren't going to happen in any world. Already a ton of rumors about Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, UConn and Gonzaga - so none of them would qualify as a 'surprise'. Cal or Stanford would be such a monumental shock - the phrase 'surprise' wouldn't do proper justice. The back of my mind keeps going to Colorado leaving was what will get Oregon to move (but I cannot figure out why Oregon is in any way hurt by just Colorado leaving for the B12). Stanford would indeed qualify as a "surprise", but also might make the most sense. Definitely the most intriguing possibility on this list. |
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Post by notwvb on Jul 28, 2023 12:53:47 GMT -5
In my la-la land, Stanford and ND to the Big Ten, Nebraska gets shipped back to the Big 12, and the B1G trades Maryland to the ACC for UNC and GT. Yeah, dream on ...
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Post by boxcariii on Jul 28, 2023 13:05:48 GMT -5
In my la-la land, Sanford and ND to the Big Ten, Nebraska gets shipped back to the Big 12, and the B1G trades Maryland to the ACC for UNC and GT. Yeah, dream on ... I've heard that Stanford is the Big Ten's target as "leverage" against Notre Dame. I just don't buy it. Nebraska isn't leaving the Big Ten voluntarily (too much money/despite some of the vocal minority's (fans) unhappiness with the move) and I don't see the Big Ten kicking anyone out, though Rutgers and now Northwestern should be prime targets for "relegation". And while I and other's dislike Nebraska, TV ratings support the fact they "still move the needle", so the Big Ten isn't likely to kick them soon either. The B1G adding UNC would make sense to some degree, but the ACC's Grant of Rights is so stringent/impossible for those universities, it's hard to see that move "soon". Alternate UNC B1G partner would be Kansas (thinking of this from a basketball blue blood standpoint). At the same time, I also envision a day that Kansas could get an SEC invite. |
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