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Post by n00b on Aug 7, 2023 13:16:35 GMT -5
I know Notre Dame would prefer to remain independent, but if/when they join a conference, it will be the Big 10, not the SEC. 100%. They will not seriously consider the SEC. Academics are very important to them. Same reason UT will eventually go to the Big 10 if given an opportunity as well. Especially now that they've separated themselves from the other in state schools that had political leverage over them. I put it at 98%. The scenario I can come up with is Notre Dame somehow loses their access to the college football playoff, or NBC decides they don't want them anymore. Notre Dame loses some leverage with the Big Ten, and the conference then tries to play hardball since ND is in less of a position of power. ND counters by negotiating a sweet deal with the SEC, the Big Ten tries to call their bluff, and Notre Dame says "screw you". |
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Post by mervinswerved on Aug 7, 2023 13:22:00 GMT -5
Notre Dame has been pretty clear about their desire for (near) complete control of their IP and rights, including their significant archival footage of ND football. They already leave millions on the table every year by staying independent and as long as they can still make the CFP they seem pretty happy.
This gets to something I was thinking about over the weekend- when your department revenues are in the $150-$250 million range what is the marginal impact of an extra $25 million on your football program? Like, how many extra wins does that get you each year? At some point, in a system where you can't pay the players, there's only so many things you can spend on. If the paying players part changes, that calculation obviously changes, but we aren't there yet.
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Post by slxpress on Aug 7, 2023 13:23:44 GMT -5
I know Notre Dame would prefer to remain independent, but if/when they join a conference, it will be the Big 10, not the SEC. 100%. They will not seriously consider the SEC. Academics are very important to them. Same reason UT will eventually go to the Big 10 if given an opportunity as well. Especially now that they've separated themselves from the other in state schools that had political leverage over them. I put it at 98%. The scenario I can come up with is Notre Dame somehow loses their access to the college football playoff, or NBC decides they don't want them anymore. Notre Dame loses some leverage with the Big Ten, and the conference then tries to play hardball since ND is in less of a position of power. ND counters by negotiating a sweet deal with the SEC, the Big Ten tries to call their bluff, and Notre Dame says "screw you". Well, I guess that true. But that would be idiocy in thevBig 10’s part. Just give them whatever share everyone else is getting and be done with it. No need to do a deal like with Oregon and Washington. And the SEC isn’t going to give Notre Dame a larger share than its other members to join. In the end I believe strongly academics matter to Notre Dame a great deal, and they’re going to feel a lot more affinity in that regard with the Big 10 than the SEC. But I feel like they’re going to stay independent as long as possible. They’re already taking a financial loss to do so in terms of opportunity cost. But the independence is vitally important to a lot of stakeholders. I also don’t see anyone excluding them from the college football playoff because of a lack of conference affiliation. |
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Post by n00b on Aug 7, 2023 13:26:06 GMT -5
Notre Dame has been pretty clear about their desire for (near) complete control of their IP and rights, including their significant archival footage of ND football. They already leave millions on the table every year by staying independent and as long as they can still make the CFP they seem pretty happy. This gets to something I was thinking about over the weekend- when your department revenues are in the $150-$250 million range what is the marginal impact of an extra $25 million on your football program? Like, how many extra wins does that get you each year? At some point, in a system where you can't pay the players, there's only so many things you can spend on. If the paying players part changes, that calculation obviously changes, but we aren't there yet. Exactly. Swarbrick recently told ESPN’s Heather Dinich there are three potential reasons why remaining as an independent could become “unsustainable”.
“The loss of a committed broadcast partner, the loss of a fair route into the postseason, or such an adverse financial consequence that you had to reconsider”That's from last year, but it's still true. And their finances are just fine. |
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Post by jcvball22 on Aug 7, 2023 13:27:31 GMT -5
I put it at 98%. The scenario I can come up with is Notre Dame somehow loses their access to the college football playoff, or NBC decides they don't want them anymore. Notre Dame loses some leverage with the Big Ten, and the conference then tries to play hardball since ND is in less of a position of power. ND counters by negotiating a sweet deal with the SEC, the Big Ten tries to call their bluff, and Notre Dame says "screw you". Well, I guess that true. But that would be idiocy in thevBig 10’s part. Just give them whatever share everyone else is getting and be done with it. No need to do a deal like with Oregon and Washington. And the SEC isn’t going to give Notre Dame a larger share than its other members to join. In the end I believe strongly academics matter to Notre Dame a great deal, and they’re going to feel a lot more affinity in that regard with the Big 10 than the SEC. But I feel like they’re going to stay independent as long as possible. They’re already taking a financial loss to do so in terms of opportunity cost. But the independence is vitally important to a lot of stakeholders. I also don’t see anyone excluding them from the college football playoff because of a lack of conference affiliation. Not sure if this has already been answered somewhere, but given that ND's non-football sports play in the ACC, are they bound by the league agreement the way the other ACC schools are? And doesn't that agreement require a pretty hefty payment if they leave before 2030-something? Or are they considered an adjunct member and not bound by that agreement? Not that I don't think ND could afford it, but I can't imagine they would want to pay the exit fee voluntarily. |
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Post by mervinswerved on Aug 7, 2023 13:31:17 GMT -5
Well, I guess that true. But that would be idiocy in thevBig 10’s part. Just give them whatever share everyone else is getting and be done with it. No need to do a deal like with Oregon and Washington. And the SEC isn’t going to give Notre Dame a larger share than its other members to join. In the end I believe strongly academics matter to Notre Dame a great deal, and they’re going to feel a lot more affinity in that regard with the Big 10 than the SEC. But I feel like they’re going to stay independent as long as possible. They’re already taking a financial loss to do so in terms of opportunity cost. But the independence is vitally important to a lot of stakeholders. I also don’t see anyone excluding them from the college football playoff because of a lack of conference affiliation. Not sure if this has already been answered somewhere, but given that ND's non-football sports play in the ACC, are they bound by the league agreement the way the other ACC schools are? And doesn't that agreement require a pretty hefty payment if they leave before 2030-something? Or are they considered an adjunct member and not bound by that agreement? Not that I don't think ND could afford it, but I can't imagine they would want to pay the exit fee voluntarily. Exit fee is in the $100 million range but the kicker is if they join a league before 2036 (when the ACC grant of rights expires) that league must be the ACC. So they'd likely have to wait until the ACC blows up before doing anything. |
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Post by badgerbreath on Aug 7, 2023 13:31:58 GMT -5
I just cannot believe ND doesn't join the B1G because of some ambiguous fight decades ago. That is just terrible decision making if so. If someone is making the decision based on that, they should be fired immediately. I CAN believe ND wants their football team to play whomever they want, that they want to keep rivalries intact, and that they don't want to share revenue or dilute their brand. I do wonder if there will come a time when that brand's clothes start to wear a little thin - but it will take a long while for alumni donors to admit to that. Objectively, the SEC is a way better football conference than the Big Ten. I wasn't talking about the SEC, but the same argument for ND to avoid the B1G can be applied to the SEC, maybe more so since NDs brand is distinctly northern and Catholic. They don't need either conference on the football side. At least for the foreseeable future. |
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Post by n00b on Aug 7, 2023 13:34:08 GMT -5
Well, I guess that true. But that would be idiocy in thevBig 10’s part. Just give them whatever share everyone else is getting and be done with it. No need to do a deal like with Oregon and Washington. And the SEC isn’t going to give Notre Dame a larger share than its other members to join. In the end I believe strongly academics matter to Notre Dame a great deal, and they’re going to feel a lot more affinity in that regard with the Big 10 than the SEC. But I feel like they’re going to stay independent as long as possible. They’re already taking a financial loss to do so in terms of opportunity cost. But the independence is vitally important to a lot of stakeholders. I also don’t see anyone excluding them from the college football playoff because of a lack of conference affiliation. Not sure if this has already been answered somewhere, but given that ND's non-football sports play in the ACC, are they bound by the league agreement the way the other ACC schools are? And doesn't that agreement require a pretty hefty payment if they leave before 2030-something? Or are they considered an adjunct member and not bound by that agreement? Not that I don't think ND could afford it, but I can't imagine they would want to pay the exit fee voluntarily. According to ESPN's David Hale in a Tweet thread (from July 2022)... - ND has a contract with the ACC that says it must join the ACC in football if it joins a league. - ND's contract with the ACC looks essentially like everyone else in the league: An exit fee (3x annual revenue) and a GoR - but only for non-football sports. ND's ACC revenue for 2019-20 (pre-COVID) was $10.8M, while full ACC schools were $32.3M - @cfbheather wrote more on how ND could exit the ACC. It's tough to get a firm number on what the total cost might be -- lots of details not known -- but my best estimate based on publicly available data would be between $55M-$112M to depart in 2024. |
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Post by bbg95 on Aug 7, 2023 13:34:55 GMT -5
Objectively, the SEC is a way better football conference than the Big Ten. I wasn't talking about the SEC, but the same argument for ND to avoid the B1G can be applied to the SEC, maybe more so since NDs brand is distinctly northern and Catholic. They don't need either conference on the football side. At least for the foreseeable future. Catholic, sure. Northern, not really. Notre Dame is a national brand. Their current pseudo-conference has a lot of schools (11) in the South. |
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Post by bbg95 on Aug 7, 2023 13:35:58 GMT -5
Well, I guess that true. But that would be idiocy in thevBig 10’s part. Just give them whatever share everyone else is getting and be done with it. No need to do a deal like with Oregon and Washington. And the SEC isn’t going to give Notre Dame a larger share than its other members to join. In the end I believe strongly academics matter to Notre Dame a great deal, and they’re going to feel a lot more affinity in that regard with the Big 10 than the SEC. But I feel like they’re going to stay independent as long as possible. They’re already taking a financial loss to do so in terms of opportunity cost. But the independence is vitally important to a lot of stakeholders. I also don’t see anyone excluding them from the college football playoff because of a lack of conference affiliation. Not sure if this has already been answered somewhere, but given that ND's non-football sports play in the ACC, are they bound by the league agreement the way the other ACC schools are? And doesn't that agreement require a pretty hefty payment if they leave before 2030-something? Or are they considered an adjunct member and not bound by that agreement? Not that I don't think ND could afford it, but I can't imagine they would want to pay the exit fee voluntarily. Yes, their contract stipulates that if they join a conference before 2036, it has to be the ACC. I'm guessing that it could probably be bought out, but the grant of rights in the ACC is similar to the Big 12 one from my understanding, so it would likely be very costly. I think as long as Notre Dame has a good TV contract with NBC or someone else, they're fine with their other sports in the ACC. And I don't think they'll ever lose playoff access. If nothing else, the SEC has a vested interest in Notre Dame remaining independent rather than joining the Big Ten or the ACC as a full member. |
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 7, 2023 13:37:22 GMT -5
This gets to something I was thinking about over the weekend- when your department revenues are in the $150-$250 million range what is the marginal impact of an extra $25 million on your football program? Like, how many extra wins does that get you each year? At some point, in a system where you can't pay the players, there's only so many things you can spend on. If the paying players part changes, that calculation obviously changes, but we aren't there yet. Somewhere in one of these threads, wrote about the massive coaching salaries compared to professional - I think specifically about Minnesota coach vs. a professional VB coach. Of course this is going to happen when no market is allowed for properly compensating the players. The money is going to go somewhere - ridiculous elaborate training facilities, locker rooms, stadiums - and coaching. This money will help on the margins - but this is all indirect. They are spending things on what will bring in the most important assets (players) - instead of being allowed to spend directly. I just don't see how much longer they can continue w/o direct payment to the athletes. |
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Post by badgerbreath on Aug 7, 2023 14:58:45 GMT -5
I wasn't talking about the SEC, but the same argument for ND to avoid the B1G can be applied to the SEC, maybe more so since NDs brand is distinctly northern and Catholic. They don't need either conference on the football side. At least for the foreseeable future. Catholic, sure. Northern, not really. Notre Dame is a national brand. Their current pseudo-conference has a lot of schools in the South. OK, you are right that ND football is a national brand because of the link to catholicism and there are catholics everywhere. But the core fanbases are concentrated in the Northeast and upper tier of the Midwest, where Catholics (particularly of european heritage) predominate. They will want to keep playing Navy, and one of the Michigan's or Purdue, maybe Northwestern, every year, plus probabl yone other midwestern team. They will want to keep playing USC and Stanford, as well as different high profile teams all over the country because they are a national catholic brand. They don't want to be tied-down to a specific region or a specific set of opponents beyond that precisely because they are national, and they are particularly not going to want to be tied to a region that is not predominately catholic. The SEC is a proudly and totally a southern conference. Great football, crazy fanbases, but it's too restrictive in it's geographic footprint for ND and catholics are not common in the SE at all. More importantly, ND football doesn't need the SEC, or the B1G, until the issues mentioned in that post above start to be real. The other sports, the national brand is less of a concern and the local fanbase is more important. I can't remember why they left the Big East - but I do remember the whole conference kind of went through a convulsion due to mismanagement. I think they like the ACC because they still get to play BC, Syracuse and Pitt which are traditional northeast rivals from the Big East - as was Miami in the later years. UNC, Duke, Virginia all have strong fanbases in the NE as well and have good programs. The ACC is the closest thing to a top notch NE conference as you can get. I think ND likes decoupling their football from their other sports. |
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Post by mervinswerved on Aug 7, 2023 14:59:08 GMT -5
I'm sorry an Atlantic Coast Conference with two California schools is hilarious to me.
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Post by badgerbreath on Aug 7, 2023 15:04:01 GMT -5
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Post by mervinswerved on Aug 7, 2023 15:04:11 GMT -5
OK, you are right that ND football is a national brand because of the link to catholicism and there are catholics everywhere. But the core fanbases are concentrated in the Northeast and upper tier of the Midwest, where Catholics (particularly of european heritage) predominate. I would argue the reason Notre Dame is a national football brand is because they are a very famous and successful program which dominated college football in multiple generations and have spent the last 30 years playing all their games on national television. |
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