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Post by mplsgopher on Aug 24, 2024 9:26:47 GMT -5
It would be nice for the B12 to get to 16 VB teams Oklahoma State sucks. What a bunch of A-holes. Seriously? Don't even have women's volleyball?? And it's a sport they could actually have a chance to beat OU in! 🙄
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Post by n00b on Aug 24, 2024 9:42:35 GMT -5
Gonzaga is not coming to the Big 12. It was tried and they decided it wasn't the right move for them. (VERY smart move in my opinion. The entire reason they are what they are is because of the large amount of easy wins they get to pick up in the WCC, year after year. They wouldn't even have that in the Mountain West, let alone the new Big 12.) So who would be #18? Would it have to be a football school? South Florida? I know Central would puke at the thought. Who would be the best add from the American? That's just IF it has to be a football school. You also don't really NEED an even number. I'm skeptical that UConn is any sort of benefit to the Big 12. They're already the best basketball conference. And UConn does nothing but dilute the football product. Not to mention, UConn basketball has THRIVED while they've let their football program wither as an independent. I think it's a real concern that making a bigger investment in football could divert funds away from basketball.
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Post by slxpress on Aug 24, 2024 9:49:09 GMT -5
ESPN (with its huge stake in the SEC and ACC) is not going to help FSU and Clemson join the SEC as ESPN's long-term TV contract with the ACC is so one-sided in favor of ESPN. Why would ESPN want to pay FSU more in the SEC than they are earning in the ACC now and for the next 15 years or so? ESPN wants FSU to stay put in the ACC and I'm sure they are not happy with FSU trying to get out their TV contract. I believe ESPN "helped" Texas and Oklahoma move from the Big 12 to the SEC. ESPN got out its non-profitable deal with Texas by shutting down the Longhorn Network, so that's a financial win for them to the tune of $15 million annually. I think I read that ESPN is even supplementing Texas to make up the deficit in the first year or two of being a new member in the SEC; doubt they'd do that for FSU or Clemson. They supplemented OU as well by overpaying and taking over for their tier 3 rights the last couple of years of the Big 12.
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Post by slxpress on Aug 24, 2024 9:56:41 GMT -5
Gonzaga is not coming to the Big 12. It was tried and they decided it wasn't the right move for them. (VERY smart move in my opinion. The entire reason they are what they are is because of the large amount of easy wins they get to pick up in the WCC, year after year. They wouldn't even have that in the Mountain West, let alone the new Big 12.) So who would be #18? Would it have to be a football school? South Florida? I know Central would puke at the thought. Who would be the best add from the American? That's just IF it has to be a football school. I don't have enough inside juice to know what the real story is, but the push for Gonzaga came from the commissioner, not the Big 12 member schools. There was a strong desire not to have another small enrollment private school with a religious affiliation in the mix, regardless of their success in basketball. And it's not like there's some kind of sympatico relationship between Baptist Baylor, Mormon BYU, or general Protestant Brice Divinity School (seminary connected with TCU, although TCU itself is now more secular). From what I was told there was a lot of pushback from Big 12 schools to add Gonzaga. But any of that could be face saving on either side, so I don't actually know what the truth is. Unlike you, I think it's a gigantic mistake by Gonzaga not to move to a Power 4 conference if given an opportunity. There is no telling where college athletics is going in the future, but where ever it's going, smaller programs not affiliated with one of the bigger conferences are going to consistently feel squeezed out unless something changes the current trajectory.
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Post by mplsgopher on Aug 24, 2024 10:32:41 GMT -5
Gonzaga is not coming to the Big 12. It was tried and they decided it wasn't the right move for them. (VERY smart move in my opinion. The entire reason they are what they are is because of the large amount of easy wins they get to pick up in the WCC, year after year. They wouldn't even have that in the Mountain West, let alone the new Big 12.) So who would be #18? Would it have to be a football school? South Florida? I know Central would puke at the thought. Who would be the best add from the American? That's just IF it has to be a football school. I don't have enough inside juice to know what the real story is, but the push for Gonzaga came from the commissioner, not the Big 12 member schools. There was a strong desire not to have another small enrollment private school with a religious affiliation in the mix, regardless of their success in basketball. And it's not like there's some kind of sympatico relationship between Baptist Baylor, Mormon BYU, or general Protestant Brice Divinity School (seminary connected with TCU, although TCU itself is now more secular). From what I was told there was a lot of pushback from Big 12 schools to add Gonzaga. But any of that could be face saving on either side, so I don't actually know what the truth is. Unlike you, I think it's a gigantic mistake by Gonzaga not to move to a Power 4 conference if given an opportunity. There is no telling where college athletics is going in the future, but where ever it's going, smaller programs not affiliated with one of the bigger conferences are going to consistently feel squeezed out unless something changes the current trajectory. Bolded: isn't the exact same thing happening here with UConn?
I don't think basketball matters. It won't matter if you have football that's in a P or not.
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Post by slxpress on Aug 24, 2024 10:46:59 GMT -5
I don't have enough inside juice to know what the real story is, but the push for Gonzaga came from the commissioner, not the Big 12 member schools. There was a strong desire not to have another small enrollment private school with a religious affiliation in the mix, regardless of their success in basketball. And it's not like there's some kind of sympatico relationship between Baptist Baylor, Mormon BYU, or general Protestant Brice Divinity School (seminary connected with TCU, although TCU itself is now more secular). From what I was told there was a lot of pushback from Big 12 schools to add Gonzaga. But any of that could be face saving on either side, so I don't actually know what the truth is. Unlike you, I think it's a gigantic mistake by Gonzaga not to move to a Power 4 conference if given an opportunity. There is no telling where college athletics is going in the future, but where ever it's going, smaller programs not affiliated with one of the bigger conferences are going to consistently feel squeezed out unless something changes the current trajectory. Bolded: isn't the exact same thing happening here with UConn?
I don't think basketball matters. It won't matter if you have football that's in a P or not.
I will say UConn isn't a small enrollment private school. Nonetheless there are absolutely similarities. I have no idea if basketball matters or not. But it's obvious from public comments Bret Yormark, commissioner of the Big 12, thinks basketball can be a brand differentiator in some way. It's not completely clear the member schools see eye to eye with him. They see additional schools as carving smaller pieces out of an already smaller TV rights package. I'd also say that the Big 12's stability hinges on the idea that none of the schools are attractive to the Big 10 or SEC. Any member would jump in a heartbeat if given free agency and an invitation. That puts them in an echelon below both of those conferences in terms of money and prestige. My big problem, and you're already alluding to it, is that regular season college basketball doesn't move the needle at all. Ratings tend to be abysmal. But it's still live programming, and therefore more resistant to viewers clicking away when advertisements come on, so maybe having compelling conference matchups in the sport can help a little bit. I have a hard time believing that, but maybe Yorkmark is a visionary and I'm just not smart enough to be onboard with his vision. But the fact UConn has any kind of football program at all, and at least has had SOME historic success, even if it's limited, helps put them in a different category than Gonzaga. We're also talking about an East Coast state flagship school with over 30k in enrollment, versus a private Catholic college in eastern Washington state, with a little over 7000 students...and no football program whatsoever, nor an interest in fielding a Div I quality program. I don't think it's completely an apples to apples comparison, even if there are some similarities. The differences are aligned with the Big 12 member schools biggest complaints about bringing in Gonzaga.
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Post by mplsgopher on Aug 24, 2024 11:09:30 GMT -5
To clarify, I mean isn't the push to add UConn entirely a thing of the commissioner and not the schools?
And I only brought up Gonzaga to talk about who would be the 18th team, *if* they add one more to go with 17 (to noob's point).
But if they don't, UConn is kinda on a geographic island? Not that there's anyone really over there to add that's reasonable? Temple?? That's probably a stretch.
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Post by bluepenquin on Aug 24, 2024 11:28:56 GMT -5
To clarify, I mean isn't the push to add UConn entirely a thing of the commissioner and not the schools? And I only brought up Gonzaga to talk about who would be the 18th team, *if* they add one more to go with 17 (to noob's point). But if they don't, UConn is kinda on a geographic island? Not that there's anyone really over there to add that's reasonable? Temple?? That's probably a stretch. This is being driven by Yorkman - not the Big 12 schools (just like the Gonzaga talk). Football would still have 16 until 2031 - and who knows what happens with the ACC by then.
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Post by slxpress on Aug 24, 2024 11:32:29 GMT -5
To clarify, I mean isn't the push to add UConn entirely a thing of the commissioner and not the schools? And I only brought up Gonzaga to talk about who would be the 18th team, *if* they add one more to go with 17 (to noob's point). But if they don't, UConn is kinda on a geographic island? Not that there's anyone really over there to add that's reasonable? Temple?? That's probably a stretch. I don't know. I think it's a mistake for the Big 12 to get too aggressive in adding teams until we see what happens with the ACC eventually. It wouldn't surprise me to see some kind of merger where the Big 10 and SEC pick over the most valuable brands they want out of the ACC, and then the Big 12 figures out what they want among the schools that are left. Then you have 3 power conferences with the Big 12 as a lesser partner. But the competition for the Big 12 is clearly the ACC. When the music stops, that's who the Big 12 is going to be fighting for any remaining chairs in the college sports world. Maybe both of them can exist, but I feel like that's going to be less tenable unless the Big 10 and SEC are extremely circumspect in terms of who they invite in, which I don't believe is going to happen. I don't think they'll go willy nilly, but I do feel like they're going to bring in the ACC's biggest brands, however that's determined. What we're going through in college sports is a typical market reaction. When an industry is heavily regulated, and businesses are forced to compete on things other than price, there's an equitable sort of competition that occurs. Not saying that's the right way for a market to behave. But that is the way. Think of utilities, the airline industry until the 80s, the phone company until the initial split of AT&T. But then once regulation is lessened, grabbing market share becomes paramount, so all kinds of mergers occur so that a few firms can take up a much bigger piece of the pie. College sports was heavily regulated by the NCAA for decades, especially after WWII. Then they lost the landmark case that removed their ability to negotiate television rights for football in the 80s. That was like pulling a cornerstone out of an edifice. Then you've had the exponential growth in revenue from television, especially the increased demand for live programming because of increased visibility for advertisers versus recorded programs where fast forwarding/skipping the advertising is commonplace. NIL and transfers are the latest, but most importantly the NCAA's ability to regulate almost anything has come under question. What we've seen is the natural market reaction to all of that. Revenue has gone up for some schools/conferences, often dramatically. But costs have exploded for everyone. If you're not part of the select few that have enjoyed the increased revenue, trying to compete in this day and age is a tremendous challenge. It's going to be more and more challenging if you're not part of the SEC/Big 10 to keep up with any of those schools in virtually any sport they participate in. The schools that can't be a part of that consortium are going to band together in their own group to try to negotiate the best deal possible. I'm a little surprised it ended up being the Big 12 that looks like the likeliest contender, but they outmaneuvered the Pac 12, and now they have to try to do the same with the ACC.
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Post by mplsgopher on Aug 24, 2024 11:33:26 GMT -5
No football until 2031?? Yeesh
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Post by mplsgopher on Aug 24, 2024 11:35:36 GMT -5
but I feel like that's going to be less tenable unless the Big 10 and SEC are extremely circumspect in terms of who they invite in, which I don't believe is going to happen. You had a great post, thanks. I only want to nitpick this one bit, a little. Right now, the only two schools looking to leave the ACC are FSU and Clemson. And neither are welcome in the SEC or Big Ten, currently. So I'm not so sure about what you've written here.
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Post by mervinswerved on Aug 24, 2024 11:42:21 GMT -5
re: Gonzaga. There's no guarantee they stay elite once Mark Few retires. Obviously a great program but not really in the same class as UConn.
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Post by slxpress on Aug 24, 2024 11:43:34 GMT -5
but I feel like that's going to be less tenable unless the Big 10 and SEC are extremely circumspect in terms of who they invite in, which I don't believe is going to happen. You had a great post, thanks. I only want to nitpick this one bit, a little. Right now, the only two schools looking to leave the ACC are FSU and Clemson. And neither are welcome in the SEC or Big Ten, currently. So I'm not so sure about what you've written here. I'm talking long term. There were four schools who were resistant to bringing in Stanford, Cal, and SMU. They were the aforementioned FSU, Clemson, and also North Carolina and Virginia. Eventually one of the schools changed their mind. But I would say all 4 of those schools are interested in other opportunities if given the chance. I also don't completely believe everything I read in the media. Neither the Big 10 nor the SEC are going to be forthright about their future plans. They don't want to be seen as obviously recruiting those schools away from the ACC, for liability purposes as well as public perception. I'm not saying they actually want FSU or Clemson. I'm saying just because they say they're not interested I don't take it as gospel. In any case, I'm less interested in what happens in the short term - i.e. the next year or so - and much more interested in what happens over the next 10 years or so. I don't see the ACC as an entity that even remotely resembles its current configuration when the current GOR expires.
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Post by mplsgopher on Aug 24, 2024 11:44:12 GMT -5
Few isn't special. He doesn't have some trick to make you shoot a basketball better, than no one else knows how to do.
What they've built up, recruits itself now. Nearly guaranteed WCC champion yearly. BYU gone. Just St Marys as only games they have to get up for, and a few select nonconf games.
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Post by mplsgopher on Aug 24, 2024 11:48:18 GMT -5
You had a great post, thanks. I only want to nitpick this one bit, a little. Right now, the only two schools looking to leave the ACC are FSU and Clemson. And neither are welcome in the SEC or Big Ten, currently. So I'm not so sure about what you've written here. I'm talking long term. There were four schools who were resistant to bringing in Stanford, Cal, and SMU. They were the aforementioned FSU, Clemson, and also North Carolina and Virginia. Eventually one of the schools changed their mind. But I would say all 4 of those schools are interested in other opportunities if given the chance. I also don't completely believe everything I read in the media. Neither the Big 10 nor the SEC are going to be forthright about their future plans. They don't want to be seen as obviously recruiting those schools away from the ACC, for liability purposes as well as public perception. I'm not saying they actually want FSU or Clemson. I'm saying just because they say they're not interested I don't take it as gospel. In any case, I'm less interested in what happens in the short term - i.e. the next year or so - and much more interested in what happens over the next 10 years or so. I don't see the ACC as an entity that even remotely resembles its current configuration when the current GOR expires. UNC and Virginia created the ACC. Tabacco road. Bringing in Stanford, Cal, and SMU trashed that entire history. Thats why I believe they were hesitant. And also why I believe they're the least likely to push for the ACC folding.
The Big Ten and SEC already are achieving levels of money unfathomable ten years ago. The schools can't figure out how to spend it all.
Why does the SEC want to bring in two more incredible difficult teams for the conf teams to play? They already have a crap ton of teams that need wins for their rabid fanbases. If anything, they need more cupcakes on the conf schedule.
Big Ten just went to 18. The last thing they want are a couple of low-research, non-compatible culturewise schools.
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