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Post by bbg95 on May 14, 2022 10:18:35 GMT -5
I think USC joins the Big 10 or possibly goes independent at some point. I don't see it for Stanford. Oregon is more likely, as football is king. And Notre Dame would join just about any other power conference over the Big Ten. They appear to still be holding a grudge over being excluded 100 years ago. And they're a weird case. Technically, they're leaving TV money on the table right now (they'd make a lot more from the Big Ten or the SEC than what they make from NBC), but apparently, they'd lose even more money in donations from their wealthy boosters if they lost their independence. Top academic school and footprint in the Bay Area (tons of tech grads from everywhere)? They'd get the invite. Maybe they would decline it, but tough to see that IMO. But this is all just wild guessing, you could easily be (more) right.
Also I threw out USC and Stanford because Notre Dame has a yearly series in football with both schools, I think so that ND gets out to California every year.
Maybe ND would never join the Big Ten. They'd prefer their independence I'm sure. But with that kind of coin, and with an expanded CFP maybe making it harder for them to get into the playoff (?? wild guessing), I would think they'd prefer the Big Ten to the SEC.
This is fun stuff to speculate about, to me. But no one really knows yet where it is all headed.
This has been talked about a lot in the college football forums, and I just don't see it for Stanford unless all four California Pac-12 schools get to go. The problem is that USC is much more valuable for football than the others are. USC is to the Pac-12 what Oklahoma and Texas were to the Big 12. Priority 1, 2 and 3 for the Pac-12 needs to be keeping USC happy. But even then, I think USC will eventually get sick of making so much less money from their TV deal than their fellow blue bloods in the SEC and Big 10. As for Notre Dame, the expanded playoff makes it easier for them to get in, not harder. And if they can get in with a four-team format, which they have multiple times, then they can easily get in with a 12-team format, which is what it will probably be in 2026 or so. The only way I think they join a conference in football is if there is one super conference after the ACC collapses in the mid-2030s. |
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2022 10:23:15 GMT -5
Top academic school and footprint in the Bay Area (tons of tech grads from everywhere)? They'd get the invite. Maybe they would decline it, but tough to see that IMO. But this is all just wild guessing, you could easily be (more) right.
Also I threw out USC and Stanford because Notre Dame has a yearly series in football with both schools, I think so that ND gets out to California every year.
Maybe ND would never join the Big Ten. They'd prefer their independence I'm sure. But with that kind of coin, and with an expanded CFP maybe making it harder for them to get into the playoff (?? wild guessing), I would think they'd prefer the Big Ten to the SEC.
This is fun stuff to speculate about, to me. But no one really knows yet where it is all headed.
This has been talked about a lot in the college football forums, and I just don't see it for Stanford unless all four California Pac-12 schools get to go. The problem is that USC is much more valuable for football than the others are. USC is to the Pac-12 what Oklahoma and Texas were to the Big 12. Priority 1, 2 and 3 for the Pac-12 needs to be keeping USC happy. But even then, I think USC will eventually get sick of making so much less money from their TV deal than their fellow blue bloods in the SEC and Big 10. As for Notre Dame, the expanded playoff makes it easier for them to get in, not harder. And if they can get in with a four-team format, which they have multiple times, then they can easily get in with a 12-team format, which is what it will probably be in 2026 or so. The only way I think they join a conference in football is if there is one super conference after the ACC collapses in the mid-2030s. Put it this way for simplicity: if Notre Dame agreed to join the Big Ten but it was contingent on USC and Stanford joining and having those two locked in yearly in football, it would be a done deal yesterday.
Does the expanded playoff actually make it easier for ND? Or just easier for a bunch of SEC and Big Ten non-champions to make it in?? I guess we will see ...
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Post by bbg95 on May 14, 2022 10:26:28 GMT -5
This has been talked about a lot in the college football forums, and I just don't see it for Stanford unless all four California Pac-12 schools get to go. The problem is that USC is much more valuable for football than the others are. USC is to the Pac-12 what Oklahoma and Texas were to the Big 12. Priority 1, 2 and 3 for the Pac-12 needs to be keeping USC happy. But even then, I think USC will eventually get sick of making so much less money from their TV deal than their fellow blue bloods in the SEC and Big 10. As for Notre Dame, the expanded playoff makes it easier for them to get in, not harder. And if they can get in with a four-team format, which they have multiple times, then they can easily get in with a 12-team format, which is what it will probably be in 2026 or so. The only way I think they join a conference in football is if there is one super conference after the ACC collapses in the mid-2030s. Put it this way for simplicity: if Notre Dame agreed to join the Big Ten but it was contingent on USC and Stanford joining and having those two locked in yearly in football, it would be a done deal yesterday.
Does the expanded playoff actually make it easier for ND? Or just easier for a bunch of SEC and Big Ten non-champions to make it in?? I guess we will see ...
I mean, sure, if Notre Dame and USC were going to join the Big 10, they can probably each bring a +1 if they want, as those two programs are so valuable. Now, I'm skeptical that either Notre Dame or USC would insist that the Big 10 take Stanford as a condition of their joining, much less both of them insisting on that. But still. The expanded playoff makes it easier for everyone to get in just because they're tripling the number of bids. So it's easier for P5 champions (right now, at least one is guaranteed to get shut out), SEC and Big 10 at-large teams, Notre Dame, the top G5 school, you name it. |
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2022 10:28:35 GMT -5
And if they can get in with a four-team format, which they have multiple times, then they can easily get in with a 12-team format, which is what it will probably be in 2026 or so. The only way I think they join a conference in football is if there is one super conference after the ACC collapses in the mid-2030s. They got in 2020 at 10-1 with losing to Clemson in the re-match in the ACC championship game (ND special case member for one year only), essentially a home game for Clemson in Charlotte. They got left out in 2021 at 11-1 with losing to Cincy at home. Guess we'll see how it works out. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion at all. You're going to have auto-bids for P5 + highest rated G5 or six highest rated conf champs (one of those two), both of which exclude ND, and then the remaining six will be at-large .... which to me just means probably at least 3 SEC teams per year. So we'll see ... |
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Post by mervinswerved on May 14, 2022 10:39:17 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, ND can't join a league other than the ACC until 2036.
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Post by bbg95 on May 14, 2022 10:44:37 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, ND can't join a league other than the ACC until 2036. Yes, that's true. Clemson, Florida State and Miami are also trapped in the ACC and its terrible TV deal until then. That's why some think the ACC killed the early CFP expansion because they're trying to force Notre Dame to join, which will let them renegotiate their TV contract. But that's not happening. I think the only thing that will accomplish is prompting Notre Dame to leave the ACC altogether and rejoin the Big East for their non-football sports after the ACC deal expires. |
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Post by n00b on May 14, 2022 10:48:43 GMT -5
With the NCAA set to get rid of scholarship limits (will only be limited by maximum roster sizes) Huh? Where have you seen this? |
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Post by mervinswerved on May 14, 2022 11:10:09 GMT -5
With the NCAA set to get rid of scholarship limits (will only be limited by maximum roster sizes) Huh? Where have you seen this? There is serious talk about dropping scholarship limits in equivalency sports. I haven't seen anything saying they want to do it in the head counts. |
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2022 11:53:07 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, ND can't join a league other than the ACC until 2036. True.
But then again, contracts are broken in college athletics all the time. An early exit was just negotiated for those teams leaving the American for the Big XII.
The ACC might demand $100M from ND for leaving early. Who knows. Maybe ND would never pay that, or maybe they would.
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2022 11:56:18 GMT -5
With the NCAA set to get rid of scholarship limits (will only be limited by maximum roster sizes) Huh? Where have you seen this?
As merv clarified, this is being talked about for so-called "equivalency" sports.
The NCAA already has a maximum number of players on the roster who can receive a scholarship in football and basketball, so it's not like if they got rid of the scholarship limits that it would open up a door to have a massive increase. In the FBS, the scholarship limit is 85 but the roster max for number of players receiving a scholarship is also 85. So effectively no difference.
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Post by n00b on May 14, 2022 12:01:40 GMT -5
Huh? Where have you seen this? As merv clarified, this is being talked about for so-called "equivalency" sports. The NCAA already has a maximum number of players on the roster who can receive a scholarship in football and basketball, so it's not like if they got rid of the scholarship limits that it would open up a door to have a massive increase. In the FBS, the scholarship limit is 85 but the roster max for number of players receiving a scholarship is also 85. So effectively no difference.
Gotcha. I thought we were talking football so that confused me. They ARE considering removing the max on the number of new players you can sign for football. But still keeping 85 total scholarships. |
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Post by bbg95 on May 14, 2022 12:11:47 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, ND can't join a league other than the ACC until 2036. True.
But then again, contracts are broken in college athletics all the time. An early exit was just negotiated for those teams leaving the American for the Big XII.
The ACC might demand $100M from ND for leaving early. Who knows. Maybe ND would never pay that, or maybe they would.
It's easier for some schools to leave early than others. My understanding is that the ACC and Big 12 are pretty hard to leave early due to their Grant of Rights. As for Notre Dame, again, they want to be independent and would possibly lose more money by joining a conference than not joining. |
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Post by mervinswerved on May 14, 2022 12:31:10 GMT -5
True. But then again, contracts are broken in college athletics all the time. An early exit was just negotiated for those teams leaving the American for the Big XII. The ACC might demand $100M from ND for leaving early. Who knows. Maybe ND would never pay that, or maybe they would.
It's easier for some schools to leave early than others. My understanding is that the ACC and Big 12 are pretty hard to leave early due to their Grant of Rights. As for Notre Dame, again, they want to be independent and would possibly lose more money by joining a conference than not joining. Yes. They have pretty good reasons for maintaining independence. It's part of the brand, plus they are doing some pretty interesting things with their media rights and archives. I imagine there is a number to buy out of there deal with the acc, but I would wager that number right now is a lot more than $100 million dollars. |
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Post by bbg95 on May 14, 2022 12:44:00 GMT -5
It's easier for some schools to leave early than others. My understanding is that the ACC and Big 12 are pretty hard to leave early due to their Grant of Rights. As for Notre Dame, again, they want to be independent and would possibly lose more money by joining a conference than not joining. Yes. They have pretty good reasons for maintaining independence. It's part of the brand, plus they are doing some pretty interesting things with their media rights and archives. I imagine there is a number to buy out of there deal with the acc, but I would wager that number right now is a lot more than $100 million dollars. Right now? Given that the ACC deal runs for another 14 seasons, yeah, it's got to be way more than $100 million. |
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Post by justahick on May 14, 2022 12:53:57 GMT -5
Huh? Where have you seen this? There is serious talk about dropping scholarship limits in equivalency sports. I haven't seen anything saying they want to do it in the head counts. In the head count sports, there are serious discussions about instituting minimum numbers of scholarships. |
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