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Post by madden55 on Oct 29, 2022 23:16:59 GMT -5
You gonna give us your Top 10 tomorrow before the committee's second reveal? It's interesting because I literally take 0 stock into their 'reveals'. Maybe I should because it might help explain future decisions. I don't know - I think if I try to make sense of what they 'value' it may come back to bite when the seasons all over and I should just look at how it all ends. Anyways, as of right now (through all Saturday matches excluding the Big West ones playing now which are mostly inconsequential), this is what I see: 1. Texas 2-8 (send help) Louisville, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Stanford, Ohio State 9. Minnesota 10. Florida Seriously. 2-8 is a mess Pittsburgh beat Louisville Louisville beat Stanford Ohio State beat Louisville Louisville beat San Diego San Diego beat Ohio State San Diego beat Pittsburgh Wisconsin beat Nebraska Nebraska beat Ohio State Stanford beat Nebraska Every team in the 2-8 grouping has at least one win vs another team in this grouping. Wisconsin is the only team that does not have a loss to one of these teams, but they have losses to Florida, Minnesota, and Baylor. Pittsburgh is the only team with a loss to a non Top 25 team, and they are currently out of the Top 50 (Towson) AND it was at home. I guess this is what I come up with: 2. Pittsburgh 3. Louisville 4. San Diego 5. Stanford 6. Wisconsin 7. Nebraska 8. Ohio State It's so hard to sort out. I just don't see how the B1G is going to get shutout. I guess you move Nebraska up to 4. The real question is what they do with San Diego. I think San Diego will probably be down around #7 in their reveal tomorrow. Stanford/Wisconsin share Nebraska as their best win. But Stanford beat Florida and Minnesota and Wisconsin lost to Florida and Minnesota. Wisconsin also lost to Minnesota/Baylor. Then again, Stanford lost to Penn State while Wisconsin beat Penn State. ooooh pitt at 2? I love it
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 29, 2022 23:19:58 GMT -5
Also.. I looked at real-time RPI to do that and they're possibly looking at last week.
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Post by volleynerd on Oct 29, 2022 23:21:05 GMT -5
Also.. I looked at real-time RPI to do that and they're possibly looking at last week. they'll probably do it with matches up to Wednesday...
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Post by brybast on Oct 30, 2022 12:34:56 GMT -5
You gonna give us your Top 10 tomorrow before the committee's second reveal? It's interesting because I literally take 0 stock into their 'reveals'. Maybe I should because it might help explain future decisions. I don't know - I think if I try to make sense of what they 'value' it may come back to bite when the seasons all over and I should just look at how it all ends. Anyways, as of right now (through all Saturday matches excluding the Big West ones playing now which are mostly inconsequential), this is what I see: 1. Texas 2-8 (send help) Louisville, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Stanford, Ohio State 9. Minnesota 10. Florida Seriously. 2-8 is a mess Pittsburgh beat Louisville Louisville beat Stanford Ohio State beat Louisville Louisville beat San Diego San Diego beat Ohio State San Diego beat Pittsburgh Wisconsin beat Nebraska Nebraska beat Ohio State Stanford beat Nebraska Every team in the 2-8 grouping has at least one win vs another team in this grouping. Wisconsin is the only team that does not have a loss to one of these teams, but they have losses to Florida, Minnesota, and Baylor. Pittsburgh is the only team with a loss to a non Top 25 team, and they are currently out of the Top 50 (Towson) AND it was at home. I guess this is what I come up with: 2. Pittsburgh 3. Louisville 4. San Diego 5. Stanford 6. Wisconsin 7. Nebraska 8. Ohio State It's so hard to sort out. I just don't see how the B1G is going to get shutout. I guess you move Nebraska up to 4. The real question is what they do with San Diego. I think San Diego will probably be down around #7 in their reveal tomorrow. Stanford/Wisconsin share Nebraska as their best win. But Stanford beat Florida and Minnesota and Wisconsin lost to Florida and Minnesota. Wisconsin also lost to Minnesota/Baylor. Then again, Stanford lost to Penn State while Wisconsin beat Penn State. It's incredibly difficult to sort out the resumes in the 2-8 range, and the committee could make any number of decisions. I do think, though, that Louisville's resume is still better than Pitt's despite the recent H2H loss. In an analysis at hair-splitting level, the loss to Towson sticks out like a sore thumb and Louisville's quality wins are just a tiny notch above Pitt's. I will be surprised if Pitt is at #2 overall. I would also be somewhat surprised if Nebraska drops as low as #7. Seems like maybe a slight case of recency bias to drop them that low. Wisconsin's resume still has 3 losses that are slightly worse than either of Nebraska's losses. But who knows.
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Post by hornshouse23 on Oct 30, 2022 12:40:18 GMT -5
After Texas, I did the rest of my Top 10 in alphabetical order 🤷🏾♂️
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 30, 2022 12:47:38 GMT -5
It's incredibly difficult to sort out the resumes in the 2-8 range, and the committee could make any number of decisions. I do think, though, that Louisville's resume is still better than Pitt's despite the recent H2H loss. In an analysis at hair-splitting level, the loss to Towson sticks out like a sore thumb and Louisville's quality wins are just a tiny notch above Pitt's. I will be surprised if Pitt is at #2 overall. I would also be somewhat surprised if Nebraska drops as low as #7. Seems like maybe a slight case of recency bias to drop them that low. Wisconsin's resume still has 3 losses that are slightly worse than either of Nebraska's losses. But who knows. I agree, Louisville can easily be #2. Nebraska's not necessarily recency bias (at least with me). It's more that I consider Ohio State not among the top in this grouping and placed them at the bottom, their current RPI is at 6, and Nebraska has H2H losses to Stanford and Wisconsin. But I won't be surprised to see Nebraska higher or the highest B1G team.
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 30, 2022 14:47:46 GMT -5
It's incredibly difficult to sort out the resumes in the 2-8 range, and the committee could make any number of decisions. I do think, though, that Louisville's resume is still better than Pitt's despite the recent H2H loss. In an analysis at hair-splitting level, the loss to Towson sticks out like a sore thumb and Louisville's quality wins are just a tiny notch above Pitt's. I will be surprised if Pitt is at #2 overall. I would also be somewhat surprised if Nebraska drops as low as #7. Seems like maybe a slight case of recency bias to drop them that low. Wisconsin's resume still has 3 losses that are slightly worse than either of Nebraska's losses. But who knows. I agree, Louisville can easily be #2. Nebraska's not necessarily recency bias (at least with me). It's more that I consider Ohio State not among the top in this grouping and placed them at the bottom, their current RPI is at 6, and Nebraska has H2H losses to Stanford and Wisconsin. But I won't be surprised to see Nebraska higher or the highest B1G team. Isn't the final four hosted in Nebraska this year? The committee will probably give them the benefit of the doubt for a regional seed, even if they have primary criteria faults (such as head to head losses to Stanford and Wisconsin).
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Post by ay2013 on Oct 31, 2022 1:06:59 GMT -5
I think we need to start talking about the very real possibility of no Big 10 regional hosts. Stanford cleared a big hurdle by taking out a hobbled Washington team (a loss I believe Pablo predicted). USC also lost Fields for the foreseeable future. If Stanford could manage to go undefeated for the rest of the season, and Pitt takes out a Debeer-less Louisville, I could easily see the primary criteria justification for the top 4 seeds being Texas, Louisville, Pitt, and Stanford.
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trojansc
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Post by trojansc on Oct 31, 2022 1:15:17 GMT -5
I think we need to start talking about the very real possibility of no Big 10 regional hosts. Stanford cleared a big hurdle by taking out a hobbled Washington team (a loss I believe Pablo predicted). USC also lost Fields for the foreseeable future. If Stanford could manage to go undefeated for the rest of the season, and Pitt takes out a Debeer-less Louisville, I could easily see the primary criteria justification for the top 4 seeds being Texas, Louisville, Pitt, and Stanford. Then, there's poor San Diego:
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bluepenquin
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Post by bluepenquin on Oct 31, 2022 7:28:22 GMT -5
I think we need to start talking about the very real possibility of no Big 10 regional hosts. Stanford cleared a big hurdle by taking out a hobbled Washington team (a loss I believe Pablo predicted). USC also lost Fields for the foreseeable future. If Stanford could manage to go undefeated for the rest of the season, and Pitt takes out a Debeer-less Louisville, I could easily see the primary criteria justification for the top 4 seeds being Texas, Louisville, Pitt, and Stanford. Just saw this - this is clearly on the table. I also think a Louisville win over Pitt and it could be Texas, Louisville, Stanford, and San Diego.
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Post by katn on Oct 31, 2022 10:17:31 GMT -5
it will be interesting to see if nebraska comes out unscathed in the last few weeks of their remaining schedule...i see a possibility of them losing 1 or 2 matches...tough schedule ahead for them...if they win the rest of their matches it will be impressive
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Post by hammer on Oct 31, 2022 10:58:40 GMT -5
it will be interesting to see if nebraska comes out unscathed in the last few weeks of their remaining schedule...i see a possibility of them losing 1 or 2 matches...tough schedule ahead for them...if they win the rest of their matches it will be impressive RED needs to beat Wisconsin on their home floor, and preferably a sweep.
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Post by aardvark on Oct 31, 2022 11:11:15 GMT -5
I think we need to start talking about the very real possibility of no Big 10 regional hosts. Stanford cleared a big hurdle by taking out a hobbled Washington team (a loss I believe Pablo predicted). USC also lost Fields for the foreseeable future. If Stanford could manage to go undefeated for the rest of the season, and Pitt takes out a Debeer-less Louisville, I could easily see the primary criteria justification for the top 4 seeds being Texas, Louisville, Pitt, and Stanford. Just saw this - this is clearly on the table. I also think a Louisville win over Pitt and it could be Texas, Louisville, Stanford, and San Diego. Pardon me for being cynical, but I think there's a big difference between something "on the table" versus actually happening. The ACC as a group hasn't done well enough this year to get two teams with a top four seeding. One will be its limit. The west hasn't done well enough to get two such teams either. So who gets shafted? San Diego, of course. The B1G has a huge fan base. Not letting their champ have a regional seed would cause much more of a firestorm than it would to treat San Diego like dirt. In the end, that political reality should matter more than what any single statistic says.
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Post by madden55 on Oct 31, 2022 11:30:27 GMT -5
Just saw this - this is clearly on the table. I also think a Louisville win over Pitt and it could be Texas, Louisville, Stanford, and San Diego. Pardon me for being cynical, but I think there's a big difference between something "on the table" versus actually happening. The ACC as a group hasn't done well enough this year to get two teams with a top four seeding. One will be its limit. The west hasn't done well enough to get two such teams either. So who gets shafted? San Diego, of course. The B1G has a huge fan base. Not letting their champ have a regional seed would cause much more of a firestorm than it would to treat San Diego like dirt. In the end, that political reality should matter more than what any single statistic says. why does it matter how the schools around them geographically do lmso?
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Post by hornshouse23 on Oct 31, 2022 11:31:49 GMT -5
Just saw this - this is clearly on the table. I also think a Louisville win over Pitt and it could be Texas, Louisville, Stanford, and San Diego. Pardon me for being cynical, but I think there's a big difference between something "on the table" versus actually happening. The ACC as a group hasn't done well enough this year to get two teams with a top four seeding. One will be its limit. The west hasn't done well enough to get two such teams either. So who gets shafted? San Diego, of course. The B1G has a huge fan base. Not letting their champ have a regional seed would cause much more of a firestorm than it would to treat San Diego like dirt. In the end, that political reality should matter more than what any single statistic says. lol is this is a serious take?
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