FINAL 2022 Bracketology

[trojansc]

Nov 27, 2022 22:33:48 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Been on the road all day - just got in.  I did see your final bracket several hours ago.

I don't really want to read 75 pages to find out what happened.  Can you provide a short summary of what the committee did different from you?  My quick glance from the top - it sounds like Marquette getting a seed over Rice (which I believe was probably an either-or proposition).  Nebraska #7 and Minnesota #8 - I would have thought this would be flipped, but again very minor and one that educated people could disagree.  

I see UCLA didn't make it - Ball State did.  What else was there?  Thx.

I thought they did a close to EXCELLENT job on seeding the teams 1-16 actually, it was everything after that which was shaky.

The committee and I saw eye-to-eye on the top 6 seeds. Not just like #1 and #2, but actually 1-6. We both had Texas, Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, San Diego, and Pitt in that order. We agreed that Minnesota-Ohio State-Nebraska were 7-8-9, but not in that order. They opted for Nebraska-Minnesota-Ohio State. Meh... We both saw Oregon at #10, Florida at #11, and Kentucky at #12. They had Creighton all the way at 13 - I had Creighton at 16. They added Marquette at #16 and didn't seed Rice (I had Rice #15). I had Penn State at 13, they had Penn State at 14. I had Baylor at 14, they had Baylor at 15.

So as far as seeds go, we were pretty much on the same page except when it came to the Big East and Rice. Convenient for Rice that they valued Baylor beating Rice H2H despite having a better RPI, but didn't care about Rice beating Creighton (and then they really screwed Rice by not seeding them at all and opting for Marquette instead).

I'll stomach the seed differentials. But I am starting to believe there is a curse with Marquette. After 11 bracketologies, I've been off on 11 seeded teams (i.e not getting a seed or getting a seed I didn't expect). Four times it has involved Marquette. I am wondering if it's the Big East Tournament that does this - but, that is a very strange unique outlier.

I'll catch up the rest in a different post, I took a break but will look it over a little more deep.

[trollhunter]

Nov 27, 2022 22:48:45 GMT -5 speegs13 said:

Nov 27, 2022 18:07:11 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Does anyone else want Colorado State to get in? Where is speegs13

This is a weird bubble year. There aren't any real presence of Texas State, Auburn, Tennessee, LMU, Colorado State fans out there on VolleyTalk. I guess a few Tennessee stans.     

Then you have the UCLA fans who probably will take getting left out of the tournament bid to can Sealy, the Michigan fans who are like yeah, that Iowa loss, we'll just call it a close on this year. I'll give it to the Northwestern hopefuls though.

I'm here! Been busy with a new job so I haven’t been near VT for a few weeks.

CSU had a weird second-half of their conference. I'm not sure what happened, but it felt like something changed with the team when they lost to both Boise State and SJSU at home during conference. I thought on paper, they had some nice wins to begin with (Colorado, UNC, FGCU, and UNLV), but they weren't looking like a tournament team at the end.

I'm sad the Hilbert-era ended with the loss to SDSU - however, I am curious to see what the program will be like going forward and what the new coach can bring in.

Another odd thing was the CSU article 11/23 after losing the conference tournament final. "End of an era". Everything past tense. No mention of possible NCAA berth. Very, very strange.

[ay2013]

Nov 27, 2022 23:12:42 GMT -5 c4ndlelight said:

Nov 27, 2022 23:03:47 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I don’t think I can listen to that. I’m not ready.

It's also really disappointing that a sport with only one media outlet just decides to only lob softballs to the Committee Chair and ask no real follow up questions.

Right, we need answers not puff.

[trojansc]

I think the committee planned on Marquette being the #13 seed and Rice being the #16 seed. Creighton beat Marquette, they moved Creighton up to #13 at the last minute and dropped Marquette down to 16, kicked Rice out.

[trojansc]

Nov 27, 2022 22:33:48 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 27, 2022 22:27:18 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I don’t think I’ve seen anything as egregious as Ball State over Texas State.

At the end of the day, you can either justify worse résumé with a better RPI, or a better résumé with a worse RPI, but in this case, Texas State has a better résumé and better RPI.

That’s what makes this one unique.

Been on the road all day - just got in.  I did see your final bracket several hours ago.

I don't really want to read 75 pages to find out what happened.  Can you provide a short summary of what the committee did different from you?  My quick glance from the top - it sounds like Marquette getting a seed over Rice (which I believe was probably an either-or proposition).  Nebraska #7 and Minnesota #8 - I would have thought this would be flipped, but again very minor and one that educated people could disagree.  

I see UCLA didn't make it - Ball State did.  What else was there?  Thx.

I mentioned the top 16 seed differences in the previous post to you, but here's the updated rest:

(my seed) team - committee seed

(5) Arkansas - 6
(6) Georgia Tech - 5
(6) BYU - 7
(7) Iowa State - 6
(7) UNLV - unseeded
(7) Purdue - 8
(8) Miami-FL - 7
(8) Kansas - unseeded
(8) Washington State - 7
(N/A) Hawaii - 8
(N/A) Towson - 8

Nothing major actually. There was only one team who was +/-1 for a seed spot. I saw Towson and Hawaii as 'next-in' type teams for an 8-seed. The team of biggest disagreement was UNLV, I had them a 7, committee says unseeded, which makes sense. They doubled down on Kansas/UNLV - since Kansas wasn't good enough for a seed, they de-valued UNLV's win over Kansas. As far as top 32 seeds go, I like it. I'd still rather have them put Arkansas above GA Tech (which would have sent GA Tech to Florida) and I wish they had sent Washington state somewhere else than San Diego.

The real drama is at-larges and some placements. They say Tennessee wasn't a last 4 in They also put Ball State in above Texas State and UCLA. Inexcusable. Listed LMU/Pepperdine among the last 4 in with Auburn and Ball State. Colorado State/UCLA/Texas State first 3 out (they didn't list a 4th) It's clear they didn't care about non-conference, S.O.S, or sub-100 losses. Also, for the 'unofficial' 3 and 4 teams in the subregionals: they made Pepperdine, LMU, Auburn the 4-seeds in those subregionals. Wright State, Northern Iowa, and Utah State ended up as 3-seeds. So, Stanford draws Pepperdine 1st-round, Oregon draws LMU 1st-round, Creighton draws Auburn 1st-round.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 27, 2022 23:23:56 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 27, 2022 22:33:48 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Been on the road all day - just got in.  I did see your final bracket several hours ago.

I don't really want to read 75 pages to find out what happened.  Can you provide a short summary of what the committee did different from you?  My quick glance from the top - it sounds like Marquette getting a seed over Rice (which I believe was probably an either-or proposition).  Nebraska #7 and Minnesota #8 - I would have thought this would be flipped, but again very minor and one that educated people could disagree.  

I see UCLA didn't make it - Ball State did.  What else was there?  Thx.

I thought they did a close to EXCELLENT job on seeding the teams 1-16 actually, it was everything after that which was shaky.

The committee and I saw eye-to-eye on the top 6 seeds. Not just like #1 and #2, but actually 1-6. We both had Texas, Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, San Diego, and Pitt in that order. We agreed that Minnesota-Ohio State-Nebraska were 7-8-9, but not in that order. They opted for Nebraska-Minnesota-Ohio State. Meh... We both saw Oregon at #10, Florida at #11, and Kentucky at #12. They had Creighton all the way at 13 - I had Creighton at 16. They added Marquette at #16 and didn't seed Rice (I had Rice #15). I had Penn State at 13, they had Penn State at 14. I had Baylor at 14, they had Baylor at 15.

So as far as seeds go, we were pretty much on the same page except when it came to the Big East and Rice. Convenient for Rice that they valued Baylor beating Rice H2H despite having a better RPI, but didn't care about Rice beating Creighton (and then they really screwed Rice by not seeding them at all and opting for Marquette instead).

I'll stomach the seed differentials. But I am starting to believe there is a curse with Marquette. After 11 bracketologies, I've been off on 11 seeded teams (i.e not getting a seed or getting a seed I didn't expect). Four times it has involved Marquette. I am wondering if it's the Big East Tournament that does this - but, that is a very strange unique outlier.

I'll catch up the rest in a different post, I took a break but will look it over a little more deep.

I think 1-6 was pretty 'set'.  I wouldn't have been surprised if they went with USD instead of Stanford, but I figured Stanford would get the nod.

7-9 looked pretty likely - with #7 being kind of a big deal vs. 8 & 9.  I felt that Minnesota deserved it, but I also don't have a problem with Nebraska getting the nod.  Frankly - I would have considered Oregon for #9 instead of Ohio State, but I also think Oregon is better off being #10.

For me - I am having Marquette getting a seed.  I thought they deserved it.  Then, for me - it came down to Penn State, Baylor, Rice for the final two spots (I had pretty much elimiated UCF chances).  I would have left out Penn State - but I didn't believe that the committee would - so no real shocker there.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 28, 2022 1:44:42 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I think the committee planned on Marquette being the #13 seed and Rice being the #16 seed. Creighton beat Marquette, they moved Creighton up to #13 at the last minute and dropped Marquette down to 16, kicked Rice out.

This is probably right - although 'planned' would have been odd for the committee in this situation.  It would have been more likely that they had Marquette and Rice if Marquette won and Marquette and Creighton if Creighton won. 

This is assuming that it creates very little issues by moving seed #'s around late and after other things have been put together.  Like switching Oregon and Ohio State subregionals from #10 to #9 could be the last thing they do w/o impacting anything else?  I don't know for sure it is that easy, but I assume it would be.  They aren't looking at conference matchups in the 3rd round.

Big East Final:

1) They had a contingency like I mentioned above involving Rice.
2) They had them both in regardless of the outcome

I don't think there is another option?  And we will not know for sure which it was.

[vergyltantor]

Nov 27, 2022 23:23:56 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 27, 2022 22:33:48 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Been on the road all day - just got in.  I did see your final bracket several hours ago.

I don't really want to read 75 pages to find out what happened.  Can you provide a short summary of what the committee did different from you?  My quick glance from the top - it sounds like Marquette getting a seed over Rice (which I believe was probably an either-or proposition).  Nebraska #7 and Minnesota #8 - I would have thought this would be flipped, but again very minor and one that educated people could disagree.  

I see UCLA didn't make it - Ball State did.  What else was there?  Thx.

I thought they did a close to EXCELLENT job on seeding the teams 1-16 actually, it was everything after that which was shaky.

The committee and I saw eye-to-eye on the top 6 seeds. Not just like #1 and #2, but actually 1-6. We both had Texas, Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, San Diego, and Pitt in that order. We agreed that Minnesota-Ohio State-Nebraska were 7-8-9, but not in that order. They opted for Nebraska-Minnesota-Ohio State. Meh... We both saw Oregon at #10, Florida at #11, and Kentucky at #12. They had Creighton all the way at 13 - I had Creighton at 16. They added Marquette at #16 and didn't seed Rice (I had Rice #15). I had Penn State at 13, they had Penn State at 14. I had Baylor at 14, they had Baylor at 15.

So as far as seeds go, we were pretty much on the same page except when it came to the Big East and Rice. Convenient for Rice that they valued Baylor beating Rice H2H despite having a better RPI, but didn't care about Rice beating Creighton (and then they really screwed Rice by not seeding them at all and opting for Marquette instead).

I'll stomach the seed differentials. But I am starting to believe there is a curse with Marquette. After 11 bracketologies, I've been off on 11 seeded teams (i.e not getting a seed or getting a seed I didn't expect). Four times it has involved Marquette. I am wondering if it's the Big East Tournament that does this - but, that is a very strange unique outlier.

I'll catch up the rest in a different post, I took a break but will look it over a little more deep.

Thanks for all you do. I can't imagine the amount of work it takes to do these Bracketology threads. A break is well deserved.

[bluepenquin]

Nov 28, 2022 3:43:00 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Nov 27, 2022 22:33:48 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Been on the road all day - just got in.  I did see your final bracket several hours ago.

I don't really want to read 75 pages to find out what happened.  Can you provide a short summary of what the committee did different from you?  My quick glance from the top - it sounds like Marquette getting a seed over Rice (which I believe was probably an either-or proposition).  Nebraska #7 and Minnesota #8 - I would have thought this would be flipped, but again very minor and one that educated people could disagree.  

I see UCLA didn't make it - Ball State did.  What else was there?  Thx.

I mentioned the top 16 seed differences in the previous post to you, but here's the updated rest:

(my seed) team - committee seed

(5) Arkansas - 6
(6) Georgia Tech - 5
(6) BYU - 7
(7) Iowa State - 6
(7) UNLV - unseeded
(7) Purdue - 8
(8) Miami-FL - 7
(8) Kansas - unseeded
(8) Washington State - 7
(N/A) Hawaii - 8
(N/A) Towson - 8

Nothing major actually. There was only one team who was +/-1 for a seed spot. I saw Towson and Hawaii as 'next-in' type teams for an 8-seed. The team of biggest disagreement was UNLV, I had them a 7, committee says unseeded, which makes sense. They doubled down on Kansas/UNLV - since Kansas wasn't good enough for a seed, they de-valued UNLV's win over Kansas. As far as top 32 seeds go, I like it. I'd still rather have them put Arkansas above GA Tech (which would have sent GA Tech to Florida) and I wish they had sent Washington state somewhere else than San Diego.

The real drama is at-larges and some placements. They say Tennessee wasn't a last 4 in They also put Ball State in above Texas State and UCLA. Inexcusable. Listed LMU/Pepperdine among the last 4 in with Auburn and Ball State. Colorado State/UCLA/Texas State first 3 out (they didn't list a 4th) It's clear they didn't care about non-conference, S.O.S, or sub-100 losses. Also, for the 'unofficial' 3 and 4 teams in the subregionals: they made Pepperdine, LMU, Auburn the 4-seeds in those subregionals. Wright State, Northern Iowa, and Utah State ended up as 3-seeds. So, Stanford draws Pepperdine 1st-round, Oregon draws LMU 1st-round, Creighton draws Auburn 1st-round.

Looks like not a big issue on those #5-8.  I don't have a problem with GT being a 5 - and very glad that JMU didn't get a seed.  I believe UNLV should have been a seed - but following one of those teams that was on the bubble cutline - I didn't care if they got a #7/8 or no seed.  In fact, I was hoping to be a non seed and take my chances.

Tennessee, Ball State, Texas State, and UCLA - all were on the bubble.  And I agree that Texas State and UCLA would have been better choices.  

Totally agree about LMU, Pepperdine, and Auburn being 4 seeds over Wright State, Northern Iowa, and Utah State.  Based on those matchups - only Stanford vs. Pepperdine could have been done due to geography.  None of these seem worse than Wisconsin vs. Oregon in the 1st round a couple years ago, but still - that is a headscratcher.

Since following ~ the last 10 years, there seems to be a systematic bias against the WCC.  Some of this is because of RPI - but even this year, it looks like the WCC got the shaft despite RPI issues.

Nonetheless - this seems like a good bracket overall, and you do great work on this.  Thx.

[aardvark]

Nov 28, 2022 8:54:55 GMT -5 bluepenquin said:

Nov 28, 2022 3:43:00 GMT -5 trojansc said:

As far as top 32 seeds go, I like it. I'd still rather have them put Arkansas above GA Tech (which would have sent GA Tech to Florida) and I wish they had sent Washington state somewhere else than San Diego.

Looks like not a big issue on those #5-8. I don't have a problem with GT being a 5 - and very glad that JMU didn't get a seed.

By resume, I thought GT was more deserving of a #5 seed than Arkansas, despite the H2H loss.

Honestly, I think GT would have been better off to get downseeded to a 6 and be sent to Florida.

However, Florida's actual opponent is Iowa State, not Arkansas, so they couldn't have simply swapped the two.

The plus side for me is that the top three ACC teams are all in different regionals this year.

[cardinalvolleyball]

Based off the Selection Committee this is how they viewed the top 32 teams:
1-Texas
2-Louisville
3-Wisconsin
4-Stanford
5-San Diego
6-Pittsburgh
7-Nebraska
8-Minnesota
9-Ohio State
10-Oregon
11-Florida
12-Kentucky
13-Creighton
14-Penn State
15-Baylor
16-Marquette
17-Georgia Tech
18-Rice
19-UCF
20-Houston
21-Western Kentucky
22-Iowa State
23-Arkansas
24-USC
25-Florida State
26-Miami
27-BYU
28-Washington State
29-Hawaii
30-Washington
31-Purdue
32-Towson

Nebraska/Minn/OSU has already been hashed out; but looking further down Iowa State, Florida State, Miami seem REALLY high.

[aardvark]

Nov 28, 2022 10:35:09 GMT -5 cardinalvolleyball said:

Nebraska/Minn/OSU has already been hashed out; but looking further down Iowa State, Florida State, Miami seem REALLY high.

FSU is only 5 places higher than their final RPI rank. I would not call that really high.

OTOH, you have a good point with Miami and Iowa State. Note, however, that both face off against top end unseeded teams
in the first round.

[cardinalvolleyball]

Nov 28, 2022 10:43:10 GMT -5 aardvark said:

Nov 28, 2022 10:35:09 GMT -5 cardinalvolleyball said:

Nebraska/Minn/OSU has already been hashed out; but looking further down Iowa State, Florida State, Miami seem REALLY high.

FSU is only 5 places higher than their final RPI rank. I would not call that really high.

OTOH, you have a good point with Miami and Iowa State. Note, however, that both face off against top end unseeded teams
in the first round.

So, Caveat. I am going to use the avca coaches poll from last week so last matches aren't taken into account, but this is what the ranked match-ups would look like:

Texas Regional (1overall):

Texas/James Madison
Kentucky/Baylor

Ohio State/Washington State
Minnesota/Washington



Louisville Regional (4overall):

Louisville/LMU
Georgia Tech/Rice

Nebraska/Arkansas
Florida/Western Kentucky



San Diego Regional (2overall):

San Diego/Colorado
Creighton/BYU

Pittsburgh/USC
Oregon/UCF


Wisconsin Regional (3overall):

Wisconsin/Pepperdine
Marquette/Purdue

Stanford/Towson
Penn State/Houston

[bluepenquin]

Nov 28, 2022 10:43:10 GMT -5 aardvark said:

Nov 28, 2022 10:35:09 GMT -5 cardinalvolleyball said:

Nebraska/Minn/OSU has already been hashed out; but looking further down Iowa State, Florida State, Miami seem REALLY high.

FSU is only 5 places higher than their final RPI rank. I would not call that really high.

OTOH, you have a good point with Miami and Iowa State. Note, however, that both face off against top end unseeded teams
in the first round.

Kansas (Miami's opponent) is a complete and total mess right now.

[avid 2.0]

Nov 28, 2022 10:35:09 GMT -5 cardinalvolleyball said:

 Florida State seem REALLY high.

the committee seeing Florida State's losses to UVA and Boston College