FINAL 2022 Bracketology

[trojansc]

Final 2022 Bracketology

NCAA Selection Show: Sunday, November 27th at 7:30pm ET
ALL Matches have Concluded

Please avoid quoting entire original post.

(*) denotes a team that 'travels' -- meaning they are not within 400 miles of the subregional they are placed to be in. These teams will usually have the most variability in their placement and which subregional they will end up in because of this.

Austin Regional

(1) Texas vs. Fairleigh Dickinson*
Hawaii* vs. (8) Miami-FL*

(4) Creighton vs. Northern Iowa
South Dakota vs. (5) UCF*

(3) Nebraska vs. Wright State*
Georgia* vs. (6) Southern California*

(2) Ohio State vs. High Point
James Madison vs. (7) Florida State*

Palo Alto Regional

(1) Stanford vs. Quinnipiac*
Pepperdine vs. (8) Kansas*

(4) Penn State vs. UMBC
Yale vs. (5) Marquette*

(3) Kentucky vs. Tennessee State
Loyola Marymount* vs. (6) Western Kentucky

(2) San Diego vs. Northern Colorado*
UCLA vs. (7) UNLV

---

Madison Regional

(1) Wisconsin vs. Loyola-Chicago
Bowling Green vs. (8) Washington State*

(4) Baylor vs. Stephen F. Austin
Texas State vs. (5) Arkansas*

(3) Florida vs. Florida A&M
Florida Gulf Coast vs. (6) Georgia Tech

(2) Pittsburgh vs. Delaware State
Towson vs. (7) Purdue*

Louisville Regional

(1) Louisville vs. Samford
TCU* vs. (8) Washington*

(4) Rice vs. Southeastern Louisiana
LSU vs. (5) Houston

(3) Oregon vs. Utah State*
Auburn* vs. (6) BYU*

(2) Minnesota vs. Colgate*
Colorado* vs. (7) Iowa State

---

LAST 4 TEAMS IN:
Texas State, Loyola Marymount, Auburn, UCLA

FIRST 4 TEAMS OUT:
Colorado State, Tennessee, Michigan, Northwestern

NEXT 5 TEAMS OUT:
Ball State, Mississippi State, SMU, Wichita State, Drake 

[trojansc]

DISCUSSION

Top 4 seeds
1-2-3 look pretty clear to me. I suppose you could possibly re-order them, but, I like how I have them.

#4 is the debate. You could actually make a case for any of Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Stanford. We don't know if BYU / USC finishing Top 25 will be the difference maker. I'm hoping that they recognize those could flip-flop throughout the weekend (as they very well have both been in/out throughout this weekend) and found a way to compare Stanford/San Diego outside of that. Hopefully the committee explains what it came down to for the regional seed.

Top 16 seeds
7-12 I feel like I have the right grouping of teams - not sure about the order. Florida/Kentucky it's looking near impossible to separate them. Florida's best win is definitely better, so, that gave them the nod for me, their loss is very slightly worse than Kentucky's, so that was meh. The fact that UF's win was at Wisconsin is what did it for me. I like how Oregon finished the season winning its last 12 - and a win over Stanford with no sketchy losses. That put them above the SEC teams, but I wasn't sure how to order Minnesota-Ohio State-Nebraska-Oregon. I hope Minnesota gets rewarded for this past weekend, and I'm not sure how low Ohio State can go. I have OSU at 8 - but I wouldn't be surprised to see them get 10. I would expect a potential B1G regional semifinal re-match - this has mostly been avoided recently, but, I think it should happen this year based on the criteria. I see all the B1G teams here above the SEC teams.

For 13-16 the question is: does Marquette get a seed, and who do you kick out (Penn State/Rice/Baylor/Creighton?) I don't think anyone else deserves a seed, so I would be pretty shocked if they throw a bone to UCF or something. I took Creighton over Marquette because of the simple 2-1 H2H advantage. USC also being T25 should help Creighton. I would be stunned to see them kick Rice out - Rice/Creighton/Marquette also all have no bad losses (outside T25) which makes them all enticing. Marquette's win against Kentucky is nice - and Rice beating Creighton H2H makes me think there's no way they leave Rice out.

Top 32 seeds
This is unprecedented - so not too much to say here. We'll just see what happens and learn from it. Keep an eye on Towson, JMU, and Yale. 

At-Large bids
This was tough, per usual. I saw the 'real bubble' beginning at #43 Texas State. Everyone above Texas State is a lock. Here is what the RPI cut line would look like if the committee goes straight by RPI (I'm ignoring AQ's and teams with 0 Top 50 wins)

43. Texas State
44. Colorado
45. Pepperdine
47. LSU
49. Loyola Marymount
50. Auburn
51. Ball State
--------RPI CUT LINE------------
55. Tennessee/Colorado State (TIED on figstats)
55. Tennessee/Colorado State (TIED on figstats)
58. UCLA
60. Mississippi State
64. Drake
67. Michigan
72. Northwestern


First - I put Colorado, Pepperdine, and LSU in. I thought these teams had the top wins and good enough in RPI to let them in. I don't see how you jump multiple teams for the teams below them to keep them out.

I also eliminated Drake (too far out, wins of Northern Iowa and Wright State at least get them a mention, but too far out in RPI to give them any real consideration)

So that left me with 9 teams. Of those 9, I eliminated Ball State. Three sub-100 losses, only 1 top 50 win (Bowling Green) nothing significant out of conference - that does NOT deserve an at-large to me.

Then I eliminated Hail State. Mississippi State is one of the lower RPI teams in this grouping, they LOST head-to-head matches with Tennessee, Michigan, and Auburn. With RPI's worse than the other SEC teams and losing the H2H, I just don't see them letting Mississippi State jump them even with a slightly better win (Miss St. did beat Arkansas)

I then put in LMU/Texas State. I put in LMU because they beat Pepperdine twice and UCLA, and have a slight RPI advantage over the others. All of them have a bad loss (except UCLA) so this sort of got LMU out of trouble there. I put in Texas State because that T25 win stands on paper AND they won AT TCU. A lot of these other teams didn't do anything out-of-conference (looking at the SEC teams) so with the RPI, non-conf win, and even a paper T25 win - I think Texas State skates in.

I eliminated Northwestern and Michigan - the RPI is just too far out and there's not enough big wins to make up for it. Michigan has 2 H2H wins over Northwestern - but not enough on the resume to jump them up. Northwestern didn't recover at the end of the season, multiple bad losses (I know, injury) but there wasn't enough to outweigh that.

So it was down to four: Colorado State/Auburn/Tennessee/UCLA. This can go any way and is where I really struggled. *IF* the committee values non-conference play, they admit Colorado State and UCLA. UCLA beat Texas State/Hawaii, Colorado State beat FGCU/Colorado. Tennessee lost to Colgate, it's best non-con win is #74 Loyola-Chicago. Auburn didn't even try - they didn't schedule a single Top 50 non-conf team. They did win the toughest team they scheduled - #63 Jacksonville State.

All in all, I settled on UCLA and Auburn. UCLA doesn't have a sub-100 loss, they are the only bubble team without one. Their wins are Hawaii, Texas State, and Washington State. I wanted to pick Colorado State over Auburn - but it's the poor finish. Colorado State has 3-sub 100 losses and didn't finish strong. They DO have a top 25 win and 4 top 50 wins. I would not be surprised at all to see Colorado State in. I took Auburn over Colorado State given they had the better RPI and not as many bad losses - and I took Auburn over Tennessee because of their H2H advantage.

[trojansc]

Top 32 Seed List

-NCAA Basketball Selection Committee releases this info, not sure if volleyball will

1. Texas

2. Louisville

3. Wisconsin

4. Stanford

5. San Diego     

6. Pittsburgh

7. Minnesota

8. Ohio State

9. Nebraska

10. Oregon

11. Florida

12. Kentucky

13. Penn State

14. Baylor

15. Rice

16. Creighton

17. Marquette

18. UCF

19. Houston

20. Arkansas

21. Southern California

22. Western Kentucky

23. Georgia Tech

24. BYU

25. Iowa State

26. Purdue

27. UNLV

28. Florida State

29. Washington State

30. Washington

31. Miami-FL

32. Kansas

[trojansc]

Bracketology History

Missed At-Large bids
-None in 2012, 2013, and 2016.

2014
Committee Pick: Michigan State
My Pick: Virginia Tech

2015
Committee Pick: Northern Iowa
My Pick: Pittsburgh

2017
Committee Pick: High Point and LSU
My Pick: Maryland and North Texas

2018
Committee Pick: Denver and Hawaii
My Pick: Kansas and Kansas State

2019
Committee Pick: Virginia Commonwealth
My Pick: California

2021

Committee Pick: Kansas State and Ole Miss

My Pick: Syracuse and Southern California


2022
Committee Pick: Ball State and Tennessee
My Pick: Texas State and UCLA

---

Missed Top-16 Seeds
-none in 2014

2012
Committee Pick: #15 Iowa State and #16 Kentucky
My Pick: #15 Tennessee (actual: unseeded, sent to #10 Louisville) and #16 Hawaii (actual: unseeded, sent to #13 Washington) 

2013
Committee Pick: #12 Wisconsin and #13 Illinois
My Pick: #10 Marquette (actual: unseeded, sent to #13 Illinois) and #16 Florida State (actual: unseeded, sent to #5 Florida)

2015
Committee Pick: Creighton
My Pick: #15 Missouri (actual: unseeded, sent to #9 Kansas)

2016
Committee Pick: #16 Penn State
My Pick: #15 San Diego (actual: unseeded, sent to #10 UCLA)

2017
Committee Pick: #16 Wichita State 
My Pick: #16 Kansas (actual: unseeded, sent to #16 Wichita State)

2018
Committee Pick: #14 Marquette
My Pick: #16 Baylor (actual: unseeded, sent to #15 Oregon)

2019
Committee Pick: #16 Purdue
My Pick: #11 (!) Marquette (actual: unseeded, sent to #16 Purdue)

2021
Committee Pick: #16 Florida
My Pick: #15 Miami-FL (actual: unseeded, sent to #16 Florida)

2022 (*This is the year the NCAA shifted to seeding 32 teams - 4 teams are now each assigned 1,2,3 or 4 seed)
Committee Pick: #4 Marquette
My Pick: #4 Rice (actual: given a #5 seed, not hosting, sent to Baylor)

---

Missed Top-4 seeds
-beginning in 2016 when Regional Host spots were awarded to Top 4 seeds
-none in 2018, 2021, 2022

2016
Committee Pick: #4 Texas
My Pick: #4 Kansas (actual seed: #5)

2017
Committee Pick: #4 Kentucky
My Pick: #4 Nebraska (actual seed: #5)

2019
Committee Pick: #4 Wisconsin
My Pick: #4 Pittsburgh (actual seed: #6)

[texasfight]

Austin Regional

(1) Texas vs. Fairleigh Dickinson*
Hawaii* vs. (8) Miami-FL*

(4) Creighton vs. Northern Iowa
South Dakota vs. (5) UCF*

(3) Nebraska vs. Wright State*
Georgia* vs. (6) Southern California*

(2) Ohio State vs. High Point
James Madison vs. (7) Florida State*

Ugh yuck not this

[trojansc]

I hope I'm wrong and the following happen:

-San Diego gets a Top 4 over Stanford

-Auburn gets left out for Colorado State (reward non-conference scheduling, at least they beat Colorado, be forgiving of bad losses for teams that care)

-If Colo St. gets left out - I'd rather see Tennessee get in and they leave Auburn out, but Auburn has better RPI and H2H. I have a fear they leave both UCLA/Colo St. out and let both Auburn/Tennessee in.

[dragon2owl]

(4) Rice vs. Southeastern Louisiana
LSU vs. (5) Houston

This is basically the tournament that opened the season, except replace Samford for Southeastern LA. Lol

[trojansc]

Nov 27, 2022 2:34:53 GMT -5 dragon2owl said:

(4) Rice vs. Southeastern Louisiana
LSU vs. (5) Houston

This is basically the tournament that opened the season, except replace Samford for Southeastern LA.

Texas subregionals are interesting:

Houston and Arkansas can easily be flipped, so Arkansas to Rice and Houston to Baylor. Texas State, should they get in, make more sense to go to Baylor/Rice instead of Texas. TCU OR LSU will go to Rice (again, should LSU get in) there is no other way to minimize flights. LSU cannot drive to the other Texas hosts and TCU obviously can't go within conference.

[volleyguy]

(1) Texas
(2) Louisville
(3) Wisconsin
(4) Stanford

[oldnewbie]

There seem to be quite a few teams limping to the finish line this year. For example Pepperdine has fallen off a cliff, finishing 5-6 with losses to San Francisco, Gonzaga and twice to LMU, and their current state does not match their body of work. Nebraska also has some injuries and is limping to the end.

1) Will they take injuries and finish into account like they do with men's basketball?

2) Should they?

[mikegarrison]

Nov 27, 2022 2:24:43 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Please avoid quoting entire original post.

OK, I will.

[oldnewbie]

Nov 27, 2022 2:32:40 GMT -5 trojansc said:

I hope I'm wrong and the following happen:

-San Diego gets a Top 4 over Stanford

-Auburn gets left out for Colorado State (reward non-conference scheduling, at least they beat Colorado, be forgiving of bad losses for teams that care)

-If Colo St. gets left out - I'd rather see Tennessee get in and they leave Auburn out, but Auburn has better RPI and H2H. I have a fear they leave both UCLA/Colo St. out and let both Auburn/Tennessee in.

I'm in favor of leaving Auburn out for their non-con. I don't think I've ever seen an at-large team with a non-con that level of awful.

[oldnewbie]

Nov 27, 2022 2:46:41 GMT -5 mikegarrison said:

Nov 27, 2022 2:24:43 GMT -5 trojansc said:

Please avoid quoting entire original post.

OK, I will.

[900sqftdad]

Great work thank you!
Dues your missed 16 seed group history mean you got them in order as well? 😳

[trojansc]

Nov 27, 2022 3:01:13 GMT -5 900sqftdad said:

Great work thank you!
Dues your missed 16 seed group history mean you got them in order as well? 😳

No, but I could potentially add in teams that I miss by +/- 2 spots or more. I think that may be helpful.