bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,252 
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 6, 2023 17:17:15 GMT -5
Isn't the Republican process weighted heavily towards winner-take-all allocation of delegates? Whereas, the Democrats are much heavier on proportional allocation? If so, that makes the comparison to 2008 Clinton v. Obama pretty useless. This is/was correct. The point isn't that candidates should specifically mirror what Obama did in 2008 - but that they should understand the rules for getting delegates and try and maximize delegates won. It only works if it is close - Ron Paul was very good at maximizing delegates in places like Guam - which meant nothing. |
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Post by vbman100 on Apr 6, 2023 21:41:48 GMT -5
It’s a shame there won’t be another election for Governor for a few years. I would be interested to see how DeSantis would do. We may never know. But I also don’t know if there are any great Democrats in Florida who could run and do well against him. Maybe Blake Bortles or Mark Brunell or Dan Marino or something like that. DeSantis is term-limited. He can't run again in 2026 no matter what happens with the Presidential election. With the way things are going, I could see him trying to change that so he could run again in 2026. |
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Post by vbman100 on Apr 6, 2023 21:45:09 GMT -5
Do you think this statement earns respect from other posters in this forum? I don’t care. Really? Then why do you post so much? Your “woe is me, someone was rude to me and called me names 8 years ago, so I have free reign to call people names and make up stories and accuse people of doing things they never did” story a few days ago seemed to indicate that you do care. |
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Post by BearClause on Apr 13, 2023 13:56:17 GMT -5
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Post by longboards on Apr 13, 2023 14:21:44 GMT -5
He lost holidays potential vote. No direct visit to a natural disaster and Promoting a book which promotes reading.
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Post by jayj79 on Apr 13, 2023 15:54:47 GMT -5
he's gonna have to throw out a whole lot of paper towel rolls to soak all that up
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Post by BearClause on Apr 19, 2023 1:03:46 GMT -5
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Post by mervinswerved on Apr 19, 2023 7:36:53 GMT -5
Doesn't have the juice!
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Post by mervinswerved on Apr 19, 2023 14:15:20 GMT -5
at this point I'd put good money on DeSantis never actually declaring.
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Post by mervinswerved on Apr 20, 2023 6:50:10 GMT -5
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Post by mikegarrison on Apr 20, 2023 7:41:17 GMT -5
at this point I'd put good money on DeSantis never actually declaring. Maybe? I've been thinking about this prediction since you made it. It's clear that DeSantis has been working toward this for a long time, at least a year, but he seems to have made some serious miscalculations. The first is that his delay in announcing his candidacy seems more like hesitancy than strategy. It makes him look afraid of Trump, which might be why GOP operatives (even from Florida) have been endorsing Trump. They kind of can't endorse DeSantis because he hasn't declared. The second is that his big push to brand himself as an anti-woke culture war hero stumbled badly when he started feuding with Disney. It has made him look more like a petty dictator than as a champion for the right -- particularly since Disney seems to have outplayed him multiple times. He first announced that he would take away their Reedy Creek, but that was shown to be a potential disaster for the local counties. So then he backtracked and came up with this plan to take over Reedy Creek, except Disney quietly but legally had reedy Creek transfer their power to Disney before the takeover came into effect, humiliating DeSantis. And now he is just lashing out at them with all sorts of threats to wreck their business, but that's making the pro-business side of the GOP extremely wary of him. They aren't looking for a president who wants to smash corporations who won't bow to his will. And this business of spending his time on the campaign trail while Florida is suffering a flooding disaster looks really bad. Also, he's been jumping into the anti-abortion bandwagon, but the Republicans are very concerned (for good reason) that the abortion issue is going to hurt them in the general election like it apparently did in 2022. He's really made himself more unlikable and less electable over the past few months, which doesn't seem like a trend that is promising for the GOP. The GOP has this great opportunity with lukewarm (at best) support for Biden, and they seem to be doing their best to drive moderate and undecided people away from the GOP by featuring these culture-war candidates like Trump and DeSantis. |
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Post by mervinswerved on Apr 20, 2023 8:46:35 GMT -5
at this point I'd put good money on DeSantis never actually declaring. Maybe? I think RonRon is running in a very difficult lane. He won't take on Trump directly, which looks weak, and if he takes on Trump directly, he'll get pantsed and look weak. His theoretical appeal is to college-educated Republicans, which probably isn't enough to win the nomination. |
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Post by mikegarrison on Apr 20, 2023 8:52:20 GMT -5
His theoretical appeal is to college-educated Republicans Whose theory is that? |
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bluepenquin
Hall of Fame
4-Time VolleyTalk Poster of the Year (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), All-VolleyTalk 1st Team (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) All-VolleyTalk 2nd Team 2023
Posts: 13,252
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Post by bluepenquin on Apr 20, 2023 11:22:13 GMT -5
I think RonRon is running in a very difficult lane. He won't take on Trump directly, which looks weak, and if he takes on Trump directly, he'll get pantsed and look weak. His theoretical appeal is to college-educated Republicans, which probably isn't enough to win the nomination. His theoretical appeal is every registered Republican that doesn't want Trump to be the nominee. College educated Republicans, evangelicals, moderates, and any Republican that would prefer not having Biden or the Democrat nominee winning in 2024. Trump's recent rise in the polls is related to his indictment. This was great a gift to him. Too soon to know if this will end up being a short-term blip. DeSantis polls significantly better against Biden than Trump. DeSantis is running. DeSantis raises and will raise more money than Trump. DeSantis chances of winning the nomination is corelated to how quickly the rest of the Republican candidates get out of the race. |
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Post by mervinswerved on Apr 20, 2023 11:29:26 GMT -5
I think RonRon is running in a very difficult lane. He won't take on Trump directly, which looks weak, and if he takes on Trump directly, he'll get pantsed and look weak. His theoretical appeal is to college-educated Republicans, which probably isn't enough to win the nomination. His theoretical appeal is every registered Republican that doesn't want Trump to be the nominee. That's likely well short of a plurality among primary voters, let alone a majority. |
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