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[BeachbytheBay]

things are still pretty clear for the top 4, don't lose more than a couple matches, and with no more than one conference tourney upset in the EIVA & MPSF & Big West, they are all in. The nightmare occurs if there is more than one conference tourney upset in the EIVA, MPSF, & Big West.

as to the final last team in, that gets more and more complicated with GCU's two losses. BYU IMO is now the team that controls their own destiny. still it requires the requisite of no conference upsets in the Big West, EIVA, & MPSF, and BYU winning out to the MPSF finals and losing to UCLA.

all these following teams 'potentially' could get that last team in spot, but many in bizarre type combinations. That loss to Stanford yesterday was a real killer for GCU, cause now they likely have to play their way thru UCLA in the MSPF, and even if they beat UCLA, they'd take away an at-large, so then they'd have to win the MPSF anyway, so GCU pretty much has to beat UCLA to get into the tournament. for all these 'bubble' teams, basically they need to win their conference tourney anyway, the chances of at least one conference tourney upset are always realistic even if it would be a 'surprise'.

7 or 8 loss BYU
7 loss GCU
9 or 10 loss Irvine (Irvine will ahve the #1 strength of schedule, but they have to get 2, and likely 3 straight wins vs. Beach)
5 loss Charleston (having to beat PSU twice, then losing to them in the EIVA finals, ok, pretty close to impossible, but in the abstract, it's a path for them.

a MIVA runner-up vs. a 9 loss BYU or 8 loss GCU ? it's so unlikely. (BYU beat OHio State Twice, and split with Ball State @ Ball State, and have a high SOS, & GCU beat Ohio State on neutral court, & the 3 MIVA teams just did not have a good non-conf with only Ohio State's win over PSU, and Ball State's home split win with BYU to show). Loyola's non-conf schedule was bad and they have a poor SOS. You just can't get a bid in general by beating teams in your own conference. I just do not see how a MIVA team resume overcomes what MPSF teams under consideration did in particular. Loyola in particular just has to be kicking themselves for not picking up a key road win or two this weekend.




MPSF:
UCLA: BW: Beach away(3), 9-2, 11-15, 5-0 SOS =1, 26-3. UCLA with away win over Beach, 2x over GCU, 1x over Irvine, 1 neutral over PSU

GCU: BW: Irvine home 2x (5), 6-3, 10-15, 2-2, SOS = 13 21-6. GCU with only the 1 away win over Pepperdine, has neutral win over Ohio State

BYU: BYU Irvine away (5).6-6, 10-15, 4-0, SOS= 6, 18-6. BYU with away wins over Irvine, Ball State. & two non-conf wins over Ohio State



Big West:
Hawaii: BW: UCLA, home(1), 8-2, 10-15, 4-0, SOS =11, 26-2 likely record
Beach: BW: Hawaii away (2), 3-3, 10-15, 5-0, SOS=4, likely record 19-4

Irvine is likely out barring winning 3 straight vs. Beach to get to the Big West finals. they have a great schedule and SOS, but not enough top 10 wins


EIVA:

Penn State: BW: UCLA home (1), 4-2, 10-15, 3-1 SOS =12, 24-3 likely record

Charleson would need a miracle beating Penn State twice, then losing to Penn State in EIVA finals, and hope other teams lose as much as 2x.


MIVA:

Winner of the MIVA, which who knows between Loyola, Ohio State, Ball State, Lindenwood, PFW ....will get the #6 seed unless there are conference upsets, possible the MIVA conf tourney winner could get the #5 seed

the other note is RPI vs. Massey. UCSB is not rated well in RPI, but is in Massey. Concordia interestingly is rated higher in RPI but not Massey. a bit odd, given both teams poor records


if the tourney was today, BASED ON RESUMES TO DATE and favorites winning the conference tournament,

how they'd be seeded if the tournament was held today and favorites won the conference tournament, Hawaii, Beach, & Penn State are all still really close in overall metrics. The MIVA winner could now jump to #5 depending on how things play out

#1) UCLA (2 matches left vs. Pepp)
#2) Hawaii
#3) Long Beach State (2 matches left vs. Irvine)
#4) Penn State (2 matches left vs.RPI Charleston)
#5) BYU (BYU with 2 matches left at Stanford)
#6) MIA conf tourney winner
#7) North Greenville / Conf Carolina

[Logan Tom Fan]

I think if Irvine splits, or even wins both, with Beach this weekend and UCLA, Hawai’i, and Penn State win their conferences, Beach and Irvine should get those last two spots.

[BeachbytheBay]

for the each of the top 4, there is still a path to the #1 overall seed

UCLA though it's hard to see them falling to lower than the #2 overall seed. their home record, their away record, their SOS, the quality wins, they'd have to split with Pepperdine, and lose in the MPSF tourney to even consider that, and even then they might still be the #2 seed with 4 losses.

for Hawaii, it's pretty clear cut, win the BWCT which will get them one or two much needed neutral or road wins, where their soft away schedule and SOS are the biggest hurdles to overcome on their resume. If Hawaii wins the BWCT, I don't see how they don't get the #2 seed, and potentially still a #1 seed if UCLA loses twice.

for Penn State, RPI helps them, still I don't see how they would get seeded over a 3 or 4 loss UCLA, a BWCT winner Hawaii, or even Beach if Beach won the BWCT and in doing added a neutral win over Hawaii & a road win over Irvine. I think PSU is most likely almost locked to the 3 seed simply because Beach faces a tough road with possible 4 top 10 matches left vs. Irvine & Hawaii

for Beach, they have by far the toughest remaining schedule, so most likely to drop to the #4 seed; however the flip side is should they tie Hawaii for the Big West Champion, & then win the BWCT those wins would shoot them squarely over PSU & Hawaii to at least #2 seed. just hard to see Beach going 4-0 vs both Irvine & Hawaii in the next two weeks, especially with 3 of those matches in Irvine. Beach could even split with Irvine, and win the BWCT and have an argument for the #2 seed, based on the away record and SOS.

[raian13]

In my opinion the top 4 seeds don’t really matter much in the ncaa tournament as these top 4 teams have played and lost to each other. There is no clear winner; the only advantage is that the top 2 seeds would get a bye, more time to rest while the top 3 and 4 seeds will have to face a lower seeded competition first.

Multiple scenarios come to mind that will be very interesting:

Scenario 1:
#1 UCLA vs #4 PSU
#2 Hawaii vs #3 Beach
UCLA and PSU split their series as well as Hawaii and Beach plus they will most likely face each other again in BWCT.

Scenario 2:
#1 UCLA vs #4 Beach
#2 Hawaii vs ##3 PSU
It’ll be a tale of revenge as UCLA beat Beach twice and PSU beat Hawaii on the road.

Scenario 3:
#1 UCLA vs #4 Hawaii
#2 Beach vs #3 PSU
Hawai beat UCLA at home so what makes this scenario interesting is they will be playing in a neutral court.

There are several other scenarios but again they still involve these top 4 teams barring any more upsets before the tournament. No disrespect to other teams in the lower seeds but this will most likely be the scenario in the semis.

[BeachbytheBay]

here is the OTB bracketology

Penn State as a #2 seed at this point would be the main question mark IMO, when the data is looked at critically

what is always interesting is the horrific 'teams under consideration' factor/category. frankly it's useless because it is so subjective on the inclusion factor. to be fair, the committee should include Ball State/Loyola/Ohio State in that category even after the MIVA tourney simply for fairness to all teams considered. as an example, if Ohio State doesn't win the MIVA auto-bid, so PSU gets to wipe a loss off a critical comparison, or Ohio State wins, BYU gets two extra wins ?? it's frankly silly if the committee doesn't have some introspection in that category. and there is nothing to prevent the committee from given it the appropriate weight it deserves. but we shall see. it's a five member committee so the degree to which they'll examine data and to what level and weight factors will be interesting. SOS and scheduling have typically been constants though to support decisions, that I would expect to be no different

www.offtheblockblog.com/2023/04/bracketology-off-the-blocks-latest-ncaa-tournament-projections-20/#more-42207

once again, there is nothing to prevent the committee from looking more deeply into the home and away W-L records to make better comparison between teams, even if the W-L records come from RPI, at least it provides a much better persepective than just putting 'blinders on' with simplistic look at raw data.

[soljah808]

Apr 9, 2023 13:02:42 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

here is the OTB bracketology

Penn State as a #2 seed at this point would be the main question mark IMO, when the data is looked at critically

what is always interesting is the horrific 'teams under consideration' factor/category. frankly it's useless because it is so subjective on the inclusion factor. to be fair, the committee should include Ball State/Loyola/Ohio State in that category even after the MIVA tourney simply for fairness to all teams considered. as an example, if Ohio State doesn't win the MIVA auto-bid, so PSU gets to wipe a loss off a critical comparison, or Ohio State wins, BYU gets two extra wins ?? it's frankly silly if the committee doesn't have some introspection in that category. and there is nothing to prevent the committee from given it the appropriate weight it deserves. but we shall see. it's a five member committee so the degree to which they'll examine data and to what level and weight factors will be interesting. SOS and scheduling have typically been constants though to support decisions, that I would expect to be no different

www.offtheblockblog.com/2023/04/bracketology-off-the-blocks-latest-ncaa-tournament-projections-20/#more-42207

once again, there is nothing to prevent the committee from looking more deeply into the home and away W-L records to make better comparison between teams, even if the W-L records come from RPI, at least it provides a much better persepective than just putting 'blinders on' with simplistic look at raw data.

I know this might be crazy to say (because having a bye is usually always a great thing) but I think it might actually benefit Hawaii to be a #3 seed and play in that quarterfinal. I say this because it allows them to shake that rust off after having to travel across the pacific ocean and then across the entire country to get to Fairfax. Yes, the team they could face could eliminate them. But I think this Hawaii team in particular thrives off of the adversity and challenge. Yes you want rested legs. But as Hawaii showed last year....in that match against NGU and then Ball State....it battle tested them and got their legs under them. They are gonna need to be on their game and shake any rust after that long travel especially against a possible rematch with Penn State if this all does come about.

But whatever the outcome and seeding, Hawaii just wants to ensure they get in! They want a 3rd Big West Championship title in their trophy case. And obviously they want a 3rd straight natty on that plane ride home with them as well.

[BeachbytheBay]

Resumes

Best Win (BW) and records vs. top 10 & top 15, SOS, & record (based on Massey - some definite differences in ratings outside the top 4 between RPI & Massey)

MPSF:
UCLA: BW: Beach away(3),11-2, 11-15, 5-0 SOS =1, 26-3. UCLA with away win over Beach, 2x over GCU, 1x over Irvine, 1 neutral over PSU

GCU: BW: Irvine home 2x (5), 6-3, 10-15, 2-2, SOS = 13 21-6. GCU with only the 1 away win over Pepperdine, has neutral win over Ohio State, 2 home wins over BYU. GCU played exactly ONE non-conference matches as true road games (George Mason) and one non-conf neutral site (Ohio State) which is not something committees like to see. 19 of 27 matches at home is incredibly unbalanced. I would expect GCU to adjust it's scheduling next year.

BYU: BYU Irvine away (5).6-6, 10-15, 6-0, SOS= 6, 18-6. BYU with away wins over Irvine, Ball State. & two non-conf wins over Ohio State, & the two losses to GCU @ GCU



Big West:
Hawaii: BW: UCLA, home(1), 8-2, 10-15, 4-0, SOS =11, 26-2 , Hawaii with a home heavy schedule, and great home record. away record is undefeated but didn't play any top 10 teams away from the islands.
Beach: BW: Hawaii away (2), 5-3, 10-15, 5-0, SOS=4, 20-3,

Irvine is OUT, unless they win the BWCT, which is in Irvine.


EIVA:

Penn State: BW: UCLA home (1), 4-2, 10-15, 3-1 (or 5-1 with Charleston/Princeton in top 15) SOS =12, 24-3



MIVA:




if the tourney was today, BASED ON RESUMES TO DATE and favorites winning the conference tournament,

how they'd be seeded if the tournament was held today and favorites won the conference tournament,

the three big questions with the conference tournaments:

a) the MIVA auto-bid, likely Ball State or Ohio State, but a bit of a crap-shoot.

b) the #2 seed, UCLA pretty much has the #1 seed locked up, remotely possibly could go to Hawaii if Hawaii wins the BWCT (and gets 2 neutral wins in the process and another top 5 win) and UCLA loses in the MPSF. I just don't see PSU as the #2 seed over either Beach or Hawaii winning the BWCT, but RPI metrics favor PSU a bit.

c) the last team in, of course that depends on UCLA, Hawaii, Beach, PSU not being 3 of the auto-bids, which as dominant as they are not a sure thing especially with neutral tournament sites. It will be either BYU or Grand Canyon, so the MPSF is probably a play-off. Should BYU & GCU meet, the winner will get the last team in. Should BYU get to the finals and lose to UCLA, I still think BYU will get in despite two losses to GCU, based on SOS & schedule & away wins. GCU really needs to beat Pepperdine, and BYU really needs to get to the finals. of course the best thing would be if BYU & GCU play on a neutral site to decide it in Palo Alto

teams in the conf tournaments that could surprise.
USC - they have talent, could they put it together for a week?
USCB - best lousy record team in the country. have Todorov back finally, and they do a good job keeping the ball in play
George Mason - they played a tough schedule with everyone going to GM to play this year
Lewis - a lot of line-up juggling, maybe primed now for some tournament road wins

big question for the committee this year, is how they weigh the home heavy schedules of GCU & Hawaii, how they factor in the SOS, how much do they emphasize quality road wins. how do they deal with and weight the horribly subjective and narrowly inclusive category of "teams under consideration" - hopefully it they lean on top 5, top 10, top 15 records both home and away in addition to SOS

#1) UCLA
#2) Hawaii or Beach (winner of BWCT)
#3) Penn State or Hawaii or Beach possible
#4) Beach or Hawaii or Penn State possible
#5) BYU or GCU
#6) MIVA conference winner
#7) North Greenville / Conf Carolina

possible the MIVA winner could be seeded #5, just depends on the final records, doubtful though

[lipton]

This entire thing is predicated on (1) Hawaii or Beach winning the BW tourney (99.99999% chance), (2) UCLA winning the MPSF tourney (98.97142% chance), and PSU winning the PSUIVA tourney (92.57343% chance). If any sure thing slips up, then the committee can be done within two minutes in picking the seven teams. I think the only realistic chance is Princeton getting hot at the right time, but you never know.

Outside of that, it will come down to UCI or GCU making their respective conference tournament finals, although if GCU made the finals it would be because they beat UCLA, so the at-large would go to UCLA.

GCU has an interesting dilemma in that they eliminate their at-large chances by beating UCLA in the semis of the MPSF tourney.

[noblesol]

The weight assigned to individual selection criteria is always a choice reflected in the final vote. Bottom line is never leave anything up to a committee, you never know what they'll do or why they did it.

[BeachbytheBay]

Apr 16, 2023 13:30:57 GMT -5 lipton said:

This entire thing is predicated on (1) Hawaii or Beach winning the BW tourney (99.99999% chance), (2) UCLA winning the MPSF tourney (98.97142% chance), and PSU winning the PSUIVA tourney (92.57343% chance). If any sure thing slips up, then the committee can be done within two minutes in picking the seven teams. I think the only realistic chance is Princeton getting hot at the right time, but you never know.

Outside of that, it will come down to UCI or GCU making their respective conference tournament finals, although if GCU made the finals it would be because they beat UCLA, so the at-large would go to UCLA.

GCU has an interesting dilemma in that they eliminate their at-large chances by beating UCLA in the semis of the MPSF tourney.

UCI with 11 losses is simply not getting in as an-large.

It's BYU or GCU as last team in barring conference upsets. can't think of a scenario where Ohio State or Ball State jump those two with another loss.


SB or Irvine have a shot (albeit very low) to get to the BWCT finals, I don't think either could win a 3rd match in 3 days, unless they were playing each other.


all the BWCT winners have been #1 or #2 seeds.

Penn State losing in the EIVA,..... on their home court, .....two years in a row...... Well that should be reason enough to put them towards the bottom of at-large candidates. With all due respect, if they can't beat two EIVA teams (all outside the top 10) on their home court again, enough said. They have the most built in advantage of all the major conference favorites. The others have to win neutral and/or road games to win their conf tournaments

[gobruins]

Apr 16, 2023 13:30:57 GMT -5 lipton said:

This entire thing is predicated on (1) Hawaii or Beach winning the BW tourney (99.99999% chance), (2) UCLA winning the MPSF tourney (98.97142% chance), and PSU winning the PSUIVA tourney (92.57343% chance). If any sure thing slips up, then the committee can be done within two minutes in picking the seven teams. I think the only realistic chance is Princeton getting hot at the right time, but you never know.

Outside of that, it will come down to UCI or GCU making their respective conference tournament finals, although if GCU made the finals it would be because they beat UCLA, so the at-large would go to UCLA.

GCU has an interesting dilemma in that they eliminate their at-large chances by beating UCLA in the semis of the MPSF tourney.

You are assuming that GCU and UCLA will meet in the semi-finals. That only happens if GCU, BYU, and Stanford ALL win their quarter-final matches. While all 3 are favorites in their matches, the chances of all 3 winning is less than 50%.

The best scenario for BYU would be if BYU and GCU won, but Stanford lost. That would give BYU a shot at a head-to-head win over GCU in the semis.

[BeachbytheBay]

interesting reqarding 'bid upsets'

the upsets of teams that 'reduce bids' or knock of top seeds in the last 2 years

UCSD beating Hawaii in BWCT semis
Princeton beating PSU in EIVA semis
Stanford beating UCLA in MPSF semis

couple of things - those all occured in the semis, not the finals

no top seed or two seed has lost to a team having to play a 3rd match in 3 days

all the 'upsets' occurred in the semis, when a lower seeded team had not yet played a 3rd match in 3 days (or 4 days)

UCSD playing 3rd match in 3 days lost to UCSB
Princeton was playing another team playing 3rd match in 4 days, so no disadvantage to the teams that upset
Stanford was playing Pepperdine both playing 3rd match in 4 days, so no disadvantage to the teams that upset

all the upsets & 'chaos' have occurred in the semis, not the finals of those conf tournaments - so those semis have been the matches to watch our for upsets, having enough 'gas' for a team playing a 3rd match in 3 days vs. a team only playing their 2nd match is really tough


although the MPSF & EIVA have the day off between semis and finals, I guess, not as tough a road then and not as big an advantage for UCLA & PSU in that regard. The Big West is brutal for the teams without a bye. for those it's 3 games in 4 days for lower seeds

[BeachbytheBay]

Resume updates

Best Win (BW) and records vs. top 10 RPI, SOS, % of matches played at
MPSF:
UCLA: BW: Beach away(4), top 10: 10-2, SOS =1, 27-2. UCLA with away win over Beach, 2x over GCU, 1x over Irvine, 1 neutral over PSU, played only 10 of 29 matches at home. (35%)

GCU: BW: BYU home 2x (5), top 10: 6-2 SOS = 13 22-6. GCU with only the 1 away win over Pepperdine, now a neutral over Pepp, has neutral win over Ohio State, 2 home wins over BYU. GCU played exactly ONE non-conference matches as true road games (George Mason) and one non-conf neutral site (Ohio State) which is not something committees like to see. 19 of 27 matches at home is incredibly unbalanced. I would expect GCU to adjust it's scheduling next year. 70% of matches at home.

BYU: BYU beat Ohio State 2x (7).top 10 4-6 SOS= 6, 19-6. BYU with away wins over Irvine, Ball State. & two non-conf wins over Ohio State, & the two losses to GCU @ GCU. played 56% home matches. I think BYU has to beat Stanford to have a chance to be in over GCU.



Big West:
Hawaii: BW: UCLA, home(1), top 10: 6-2, SOS =11, 26-2 , Hawaii with a home heavy schedule, and great home record. away record is undefeated but didn't play any top 10 teams away from the islands. 73% of matches played at home

Beach: BW: Penn State away (2), top 10: 6-3, SOS=4, 20-3, Beach played 52% of matches at home



EIVA:

Penn State: BW: UCLA home (1), top 10 4-3, SOS =12, 24-3 PSU played 45% of matches at home

[VBelo Report]

RPI Update (Matches through 4/19/2023)

[ManapuaSurprise]

Apr 20, 2023 1:10:21 GMT -5 BeachbytheBay said:

Resume updates

Best Win (BW) and records vs. top 10 RPI, SOS, % of matches played at
MPSF:
UCLA: BW: Beach away(4), top 10: 10-2, SOS =1, 27-2. UCLA with away win over Beach, 2x over GCU, 1x over Irvine, 1 neutral over PSU, played only 10 of 29 matches at home. (35%)

GCU: BW: BYU home 2x (5), top 10: 6-2 SOS = 13 22-6. GCU with only the 1 away win over Pepperdine, now a neutral over Pepp, has neutral win over Ohio State, 2 home wins over BYU. GCU played exactly ONE non-conference matches as true road games (George Mason) and one non-conf neutral site (Ohio State) which is not something committees like to see. 19 of 27 matches at home is incredibly unbalanced. I would expect GCU to adjust it's scheduling next year. 70% of matches at home.

BYU: BYU beat Ohio State 2x (7).top 10 4-6 SOS= 6, 19-6. BYU with away wins over Irvine, Ball State. & two non-conf wins over Ohio State, & the two losses to GCU @ GCU. played 56% home matches. I think BYU has to beat Stanford to have a chance to be in over GCU.



Big West:
Hawaii: BW: UCLA, home(1), top 10: 6-2, SOS =11, 26-2 , Hawaii with a home heavy schedule, and great home record. away record is undefeated but didn't play any top 10 teams away from the islands. 73% of matches played at home

Beach: BW: Penn State away (2), top 10: 6-3, SOS=4, 20-3, Beach played 52% of matches at home



EIVA:

Penn State: BW: UCLA home (1), top 10 4-3, SOS =12, 24-3 PSU played 45% of matches at home

Stanford was #8 when UH swept them at Stanford